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AF

Air Force 27 at Utah State 20

USU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Maverik Stadium
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Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadAF aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreAF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDTDFGTDFGTDEnd of GameFG+6USU 57.0%Brock Warren 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 10 · Q2 10:33
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:33 · Brock Warren 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Home team on offense+5.2Garbage-time factor+1.2Pregame prior−5.3Score differential+0.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:27: Tyler Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +9.5 pts (now 56%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:13: Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +12.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 12:02: Brock Warren 23 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +7.2 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 5:06: Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +16.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:32: Kent Myers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +14.3 pts (now 16%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9AF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00USU 4th & 16 at USU 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.5%−0.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:11AF 4th & 6 at USU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    53.7%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:46AF 4th & 7 at AF 26, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:15USU 4th & 2 at AF 28, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.9%−0.4
    60% to make
    Punt
    46.2%−2.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:21AF 4th & 6 at AF 42, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00USU 4th & 1 at AF 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 49.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    50.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    49.0%−1.0
    62% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−3.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:33USU 4th & 2 at AF 6, up 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    50.6%−0.9
    91% to make
    Punt
    46.5%−5.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:27USU 4th & 22 at AF 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    48.2%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    49.1%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:25AF 4th & 1 at AF 25, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 51.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.4%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00AF 4th & 1 at USU 21, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    64.1%−2.1
    74% to make
    Punt
    58.1%−8.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:23USU 4th & 4 at AF 43, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    34.1%−3.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    35.7%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:55AF 4th & 12 at midfield, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.5%−1.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00USU 4th & 17 at AF 18, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 4.0 ptsWent for it · 29.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.6%−4.0
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    29.6%
    79% to make
    Punt
    18.9%−10.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:04AF 4th & 15 at AF 1, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−5.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:02USU 4th & 6 at AF 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−13.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:02AF 4th & 1 at AF 34, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.4 ptsPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.5%−3.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:06USU 4th & 3 at USU 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.7%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:57AF 4th & 10 at USU 16, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.0%
    81% to make
    Punt
    90.4%−2.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2AF made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 6:53USU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:27AF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:13AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:06AF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.5%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 0:32USU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−2.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
42.2%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-4
42.2%
Kent Myers sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 24Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 24
-5
42.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 19Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
42.2%
Aaron Dalton punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 2FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:0957% → 56%
Q1 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
42.6%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 48Similar
Q1 13:20
1ST & 5
OWN 48
+3
42.5%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+1
42.5%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the UthSt 48Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
42.9%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the UthSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
42.9%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+8
42.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 8 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q1 11:55
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+3
42.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+19
42.8%
Timothy McVey run for 19 yds to the UthSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
43.5%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q1 9:28
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+2
43.5%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the UthSt 11Similar
Q1 9:28
3RD & 6
OPP 11
0
43.8%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:11
4TH & 6
OPP 11
+28
43.9%
Luke Strebel 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 3TD
5 plays · 86 yds · 1:1045% → 48%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
44.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 15Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OWN 15
0
44.6%
Kent Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 9
OWN 15
+42
44.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 42 yds to the AFA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
48.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 43 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0053% → 52%
Q1 6:46
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
47.4%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 6:46
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
47.3%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
47.6%
Nate Romine sacked by Ricky Ali'ifua for 0 yards to the AFA 26Similar
Q1 6:46
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
48.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 19 yds · 1:1049% → 48%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+8
48.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 8 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 2
OPP 39
-3
48.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+6
48.7%
MYERS, Kent pass incomplete to ROBERTS, B., PENALTY AF pass interference 6 yards to the AF36, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
49.0%
Devante Mays run for 2 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
49.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion Tarver, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+6
48.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 6 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 2
OPP 28
0
48.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Roland LadipoSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:5751% → 50%
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
49.1%
Ronald Cleveland run for 11 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-15
48.5%
DAVERN, Shayne rush for 3 yards to the AF41 (HUERTA, Alex;LARSEN, Derek), PENALTY AF illegal block 15 yards to the AF23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 25
OWN 23
+16
50.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 16 yds to the AFA 39Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+3
49.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 42Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
49.7%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:21
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
50.5%
Steve Brosy punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 7FG
14 plays · 66 yds · 5:2050% → 57%
Q1 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-2
49.6%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 0:53
2ND & 12
OWN 26
+14
49.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 14 yds to the UthSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+24
50.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 24 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
51.3%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
51.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion TarverSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 33
+6
51.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 6 yds to the AFA 27Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+1
50.5%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the AFA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
51.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 5 yds to the AFA 21Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+4
51.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 4 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 17
+3
51.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 3 yds to the AFA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
51.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+8
51.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 8 yds to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 6
0
51.0%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the AFA 6Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 2
OPP 6
+23
57.0%
Brock Warren 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 36 yds · 1:5345% → 56%
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
54.9%
Tyler Williams run for 10 yds to the UthSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
53.5%
Timothy McVey run for 14 yds to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST down UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive holding (6 Yards) to the UthSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 4
OPP 6
+4
53.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-5
53.5%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the UthSt 7Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
53.5%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
44.0%
Tyler Williams run for 4 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
50.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+8
50.6%
Tonny Lindsey run for 8 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+24
51.7%
Kent Myers run for 24 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-4
53.5%
Tonny Lindsey run for a loss of 4 yards to the AFA 37Similar
Q2 8:27
2ND & 14
OPP 37
+4
51.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 4 yds to the AFA 33Similar
Q2 8:27
3RD & 10
OPP 33
-12
52.2%
Kent Myers sacked by Jalen Lacy for a loss of 12 yards to the AFA 45Similar
Q2 8:27
4TH & 22
OPP 45
0
49.5%
Aaron Dalton punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
47.9%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 18Similar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+6
48.1%
Tyler Williams run for 6 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q2 5:25
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+1
47.7%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the AFA 25Similar
Q2 5:25
4TH & 1
OWN 25
0
49.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 11INT
4 plays · 20 yds · 0:0053% → 55%
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
52.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 6 yds to the UthSt 42Similar
Q2 3:46
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
53.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+13
53.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 13 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
54.5%
Kent Myers pass intercepted Brodie Hicks return for no gain to the AFA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 12TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 1:5051% → 71%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+11
48.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 11 yds to the AFA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+5
48.3%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the AFA 28Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 5
OWN 28
+3
46.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 31Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+20
46.5%
Tyler Williams run for 20 yds to the UthSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
44.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 47 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the UthSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
43.0%
Tyler Williams run for no gain to the UthSt 12Similar
Q2 0:13
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+12
29.4%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
36.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Kennedy Williams for 12 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 14DOWNS
12 plays · 54 yds · 0:0066% → 67%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.8%
Nate Romine run for 3 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
33.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
33.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
32.8%
Tyler Williams run for 16 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
31.5%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+1
31.5%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the UthSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+15
32.0%
ROMINE, Nate pass incomplete to MATKOVICH, Jake (DAVIS, Jalen), PENALTY USU pass interference 15 yards to the USU30, 1ST DOWN AF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
31.3%
Timothy McVey run for 1 yd to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+8
31.3%
Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 21
0
31.7%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the UthSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 21
0
33.0%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the UthSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 0:0034% → 36%
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
34.1%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 18 Kent Myers fumbled, recovered by UthSt Kent MyersSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+13
33.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 13 yds to the UthSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
34.8%
Kent Myers run for 2 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 8
OWN 33
0
34.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew RodriguezSimilar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+8
33.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 8 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
36.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+3
35.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 3 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+7
35.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 7 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
37.9%
Kent Myers run for no gain to the AFA 49Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+9
37.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 9 yds to the AFA 40Similar
Q3 10:23
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-3
37.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 10:23
4TH & 4
OPP 43
0
35.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Ronald Cleveland at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
30.9%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AFA 15Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+2
31.0%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the AFA 17Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 3
OWN 17
-5
31.7%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AFA 12Similar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 8
OWN 12
+40
32.1%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 40 yds to the UthSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
27.7%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q3 5:55
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
27.8%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q3 5:55
3RD & 8
OPP 46
-4
28.2%
Nate Romine sacked by Anthony Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Nate Romine fumbled, recovered by AFA Nate Romine , return for 0 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 5:55
4TH & 12
50
+2
31.3%
Steve Brosy punt for 43 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 2 yds to the UthSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 17DOWNS
9 plays · 85 yds · 2:4231% → 28%
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
31.4%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the UthSt 9Similar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+26
31.4%
Justen Hervey run for 26 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
32.6%
Kent Myers run for 13 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
36.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+26
36.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 16 yds to the AFA 21 for a 1ST down AIR FORCE Penalty, face mask (10 yards) (10 Yards) to the AFA 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
38.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Ron'Quavion Tarver, broken up by Jesse WashingtonSimilar
Q3 2:42
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
38.4%
Kent Myers sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 16Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 15
OPP 16
-2
33.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 18Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 17
OPP 18
+12
28.3%
DJ Nelson pass complete to Jake Thompson for 12 yds to the AFA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:4672% → 71%
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-5
27.9%
Tyler Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 14:04
2ND & 15
OWN 1
0
27.6%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 15
OWN 1
0
28.4%
AIR FORCE Penalty, false start ( Yards) to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 14:04
3RD & 15
OWN 1
0
28.4%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Jalen RobinetteSimilar
Q4 14:04
4TH & 15
OWN 1
+20
29.4%
Steve Brosy punt for 45 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 20 yds to the AFA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 19FG
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3637% → 42%
Q4 13:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+18
37.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 18 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
37.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the AFA 7Similar
Q4 13:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
37.2%
Tonny Lindsey run for 1 yd to the AFA 6Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
34.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt Houston, broken up by Hayes LinnSimilar
Q4 12:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
42.0%
Brock Warren 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
33.4%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
32.5%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 1 yard to the AFA 28 Nate Romine fumbled, forced by Jalen Davis, recovered by AFA Tyler WilliamsSimilar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+6
34.1%
Nate Romine pass complete to Timothy McVey for 6 yds to the AFA 34Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
33.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21FUMBLE
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
39.4%
MYERS, Kent pass complete to LEWIS, Rayshad for 13 yards to the USU36 (WATSON, Ryan), PENALTY USU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the USU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+6
39.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 6 yds to the UthSt 24Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 24
-5
39.1%
MYERS, Kent rush for 24 yards to the USU48 (HICKS, Brodie), PENALTY USU illegal formation 5 yards to the USU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 14
OWN 19
+2
38.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the UthSt 21Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 12
OWN 21
-8
37.2%
Kent Myers sacked by Haji Dunn Jr. for a loss of 8 yards to the UthSt 13 Kent Myers fumbled, recovered by AFA Haji Dunn Jr. , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22TD
6 plays · 13 yds · 2:3576% → 92%
Q4 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
24.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the UthSt 12Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+8
24.4%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 8 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q4 7:41
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+2
25.2%
Nate Romine run for 2 yds to the UthSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
24.4%
Nate Romine run for 1 yd to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 7:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.4%
Nate Romine run for no gain to the UthSt 1Similar
Q4 5:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.7%
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 23DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
9.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 5:06
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
11.2%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Tonny Lindsey, broken up by Hayes LinnSimilar
Q4 5:06
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
10.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete, broken up by Santo CoppolaSimilar
Q4 5:06
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
9.8%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Braelon Roberts, broken up by Brodie HicksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24FG
8 plays · 16 yds · 1:3693% → 98%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
7.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the UthSt 25Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+9
7.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 9 yds to the UthSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
7.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the UthSt 13Similar
Q4 3:14
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-3
5.2%
D.J. Johnson run for a loss of 3 yards to the UthSt 16Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 10
OPP 16
0
5.1%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:57
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+33
2.3%
Luke Strebel 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 25TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:253% → 16%
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
2.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
2.8%
Kent Myers run for 4 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+20
3.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 20 yds to the AFA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
3.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad Lewis, broken up by Jacob OnyechiSimilar
Q4 2:57
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-9
3.0%
Kent Myers sacked by Haji Dunn Jr. and Santo Coppola for a loss of 9 yards to the UthSt 45Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 19
OWN 45
+24
1.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 24 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:47
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-7
1.6%
Kent Myers sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 38Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 17
OPP 38
0
1.4%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Jaren Colston-GreenSimilar
Q4 1:10
3RD & 17
OPP 38
+35
1.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 35 yds to the AFA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
1.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for no gain to the AFA 3Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
1.8%
Tonny Lindsey run for 2 yds to the AFA 1Similar
Q4 0:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.1%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26Uncategorized
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
5.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:06
Jacobi Owens run for 1 yd for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-16.6
TD · Q4 0:32
Kent Myers run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
+14.3
TD · Q2 0:13
Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 12 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com