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UNLV

UNLV 21 at Central Michigan 44

CMU
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadUNLV aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreUNLV score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDSAFETYTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Evan Pantels punt for 49 yds, downed at the CMich 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 8Pregame prior+34.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:34: Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +8.8 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:07: Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 29 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +8.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:51: Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 26 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +7.1 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:34: Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 31 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +6.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:14: Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 42 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK) — CMU win probability +5.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 8UNLV made the numbers' call on 9 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:32CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 11, tied
    Close callPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:32CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 49, down 7
    Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:29UNLV 4th & 7 at UNLV 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.6%−0.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:38UNLV 4th & 18 at UNLV 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−0.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:56CMU 4th & 8 at UNLV 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.6%
    72% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−2.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:07CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 33, tied
    Close callPunted · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:07UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.7%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:51UNLV 4th & 10 at CMU 46, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    18.0%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    18.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.2%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:41UNLV 4th & 5 at UNLV 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.5%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:45CMU 4th & 12 at UNLV 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    76.8%−5.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:45UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−2.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:40CMU 4th & 5 at UNLV 39, up 16
    Close callPunted · 93.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    93.5%−0.6
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    93.5%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 2:28UNLV 4th & 15 at UNLV 15, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00UNLV 4th & 9 at CMU 40, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.1%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    6.8%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    6.9%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:14UNLV 4th & 8 at UNLV 7, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:54CMU 4th & 18 at UNLV 25, up 23
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.1%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    98.8%−0.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 5:54UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 34, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−<0.1
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.7%
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:54UNLV 4th & 1 at CMU 38, down 23
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−<0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:54UNLV 4th & 10 at CMU 13, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UNLV made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:38CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:35CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:07UNLV Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    22.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:34UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:07CMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:51CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:34CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 14:14CMU Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UNLVDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
84.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
84.6%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 18
+21
84.6%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 21 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
84.6%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
84.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the UNLV 41Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+7
84.6%
Johnny Stanton run for 7 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
84.6%
Evan Pantels punt for 49 yds, downed at the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT TD
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:5684% → 82%
Q1 12:28
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
83.9%
Devon Spalding run for 5 yds to the CMich 8Similar
Q1 12:28
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+3
83.9%
Devon Spalding run for 3 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q1 12:28
3RD & 2
OWN 11
0
83.8%
Devon Spalding run for no gain to the CMich 11Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 2
OWN 11
0
82.1%
Cooper Mojsiejenko punt blocked by Aaron Borg blocked by Aaron Borg Charles Williams return for no gain for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q1 10:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
82.5%
Cooper Rush pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-15
82.4%
RUSH, Cooper pass complete to CHAPMAN, Mark for 9 yards to the LV47 (MCTYER, Torry), PENALTY CMU pass interference (CONKLIN, Tyler) 15 yards to the CMU29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:32
2ND & 25
OWN 29
-4
82.3%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Devon Spalding for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 10:32
3RD & 29
OWN 25
+24
82.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 24 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 10:32
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
82.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q1 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
81.1%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the UNLV 15Similar
Q1 8:29
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
81.1%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+3
81.2%
Johnny Stanton run for 3 yds to the UNLV 18Similar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 7
OWN 18
0
81.3%
Evan Pantels punt for 57 yds, downed at the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:2380% → 82%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
80.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 26 yds to the UNLV 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
80.8%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the UNLV 49Similar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
80.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark Chapman, broken up by Darius MoutonSimilar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+13
80.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 13 yds to the UNLV 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
80.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 6 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+30
82.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jesse Kroll for 30 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0019% → 18%
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.2%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q1 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.2%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q1 4:38
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-11
81.4%
Johnny Stanton sacked by Mike Danna and Joe Ostman for a loss of 11 yards to the UNLV 17Similar
Q1 4:38
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
81.7%
Evan Pantels punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 48 yds · 1:3782% → 84%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+16
81.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Joe Bacci for 16 yds to the UNLV 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
81.9%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the UNLV 30Similar
Q1 3:12
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
81.9%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Devon SpaldingSimilar
Q1 3:12
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+17
81.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 17 yds to the UNLV 13 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
84.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 13 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 8INT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:3517% → 17%
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-3
83.2%
WILLIAMS, C. rush for 3 yards to the LV10, PENALTY LV holding 3 yards to the LV4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 13
OWN 4
+1
83.2%
Charles Williams run for 1 yd to the UNLV 5Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 12
OWN 5
+6
83.3%
Charles Williams run for 6 yds to the UNLV 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+16
83.3%
Johnny Stanton pass intercepted Sean Bunting return for 16 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9MISSED FG
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:5284% → 83%
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
84.0%
Devon Spalding run for 2 yds to the UNLV 22Similar
Q2 14:48
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
84.0%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray HayesSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
83.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
83.0%
Brian Eavey 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 10TD
2 plays · 78 yds · 0:4917% → 22%
Q2 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
82.7%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 15Similar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 17
OWN 15
+85
78.5%
Lexington Thomas run for 85 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Mark ChapmanSimilar
Q2 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
78.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 13:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
78.7%
Jack Sheldon punt for 29 yds, downed at the UNLV 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 12TD
11 plays · 62 yds · 3:5823% → 33%
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+12
77.1%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
50
+16
76.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Charles Williams for 16 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
76.0%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 11:32
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
75.8%
Lexington Thomas run for 11 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
75.1%
Charles Williams run for 7 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+5
75.1%
Johnny Stanton run for 5 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
75.1%
Johnny Stanton run for 2 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
75.1%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-7
75.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the CMich 3 UNLV Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
+13
66.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 2:2769% → 79%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
69.0%
Devon Spalding run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 11
OWN 17
+16
68.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 16 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
69.4%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+19
70.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 4 yds to the UNLV 41 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Mark Finau) to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+15
71.3%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to KROLL, Jesse, PENALTY LV pass interference (BAKER, Dalton) 15 yards to the LV29, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
79.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 29 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
72.6%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+5
73.1%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Lexington Thomas for 5 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 5
OWN 48
0
72.6%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 5:07
4TH & 5
OWN 48
0
73.9%
Evan Pantels punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:3777% → 85%
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
76.6%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 1 yd to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+6
76.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+9
76.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 9 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
77.3%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jesse KrollSimilar
Q2 4:28
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
77.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q2 4:28
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+31
77.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Tyler Conklin for 31 yds to the UNLV 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
84.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 26 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 30 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
82.7%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+15
82.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Andrew Price for 15 yds to the UNLV 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
81.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Andrew Price for 5 yds to the UNLV 44Similar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 5
OWN 44
0
80.9%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Mekhi Stevenson, broken up by Sean BuntingSimilar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+10
81.4%
Johnny Stanton run for 10 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
80.5%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
80.8%
Johnny Stanton run for no gain to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 1:51
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
81.8%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr., broken up by Tony AnneseSimilar
Q2 1:51
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
82.8%
Evan Pantels punt for 44 yds, downed at the CMich 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
82.7%
Cooper Rush run for 2 yds to the CMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0084% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
83.7%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Anthony RiceSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+1
83.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 1 yd to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
82.5%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 47
-2
81.4%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds , Mekhi Stevenson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
81.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 8 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+4
81.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 4 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
81.5%
Johnny Stanton run for 3 yds to the UNLV 27Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+2
81.3%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 5
OWN 29
0
81.8%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Andrew PriceSimilar
Q3 13:41
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
82.6%
Evan Pantels punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Emmett Thomas at the CMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20MISSED FG
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:4583% → 82%
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+29
82.7%
Cooper Rush run for 29 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
84.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds to the UNLV 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
84.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 11:30
2ND & 7
OPP 20
0
84.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey Willis, broken up by Darius MoutonSimilar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 7
OWN 0
0
81.3%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to CONKLIN, Tyler, PENALTY CMU tripping off-setting, PENALTY LV pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:30
3RD & 7
OPP 20
-5
83.4%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 25Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 12
OPP 25
+43
82.4%
Brian Eavey 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0019% → 17%
Q3 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.0%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Mekhi StevensonSimilar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
81.2%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 20Similar
Q3 8:45
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
82.2%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q3 8:45
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
82.7%
Evan Pantels punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Anthony Rice at the UNLV 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 48 yds · 1:2486% → 92%
Q3 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
85.6%
Cooper Rush run for 5 yds to the UNLV 43Similar
Q3 7:58
2ND & 5
OPP 43
+12
85.7%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 12 yds to the UNLV 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
92.2%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 31 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23SF
10 plays · -6 yds · 1:5410% → 7%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
89.9%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Tim Holt for 9 yds to the UNLV 26Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 1
OWN 26
0
89.2%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
89.6%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
89.5%
STANTON, Johnny pass incomplete to WOODS JR., D., PENALTY LV holding 10 yards to the LV18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 20
OWN 18
-5
90.0%
UNLV Penalty, false start (Charles Williams) to the UNLV 13Similar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 25
OWN 13
0
90.0%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Lexington ThomasSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 25
OWN 13
-2
90.2%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 11Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 27
OWN 11
0
90.3%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to David GreeneSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 27
OWN 11
+11
92.7%
Team SafetySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.5%
Jesse Kroll pass incomplete to Tyler ConklinSimilar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
94.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Jahray Hayes, broken up by Nick DehdashtianSimilar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-5
94.2%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Joe Austin) to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 15
OWN 39
+17
94.0%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 17 yds to the UNLV 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
94.6%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 4:40
2ND & 5
OPP 39
0
94.5%
Corey Willis run for no gain to the UNLV 39Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 5
OPP 39
0
94.4%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Tyler Conklin, broken up by Torry McTyerSimilar
Q3 4:40
4TH & 5
OPP 39
0
93.9%
Jack Sheldon punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
93.0%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-2
93.1%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Charles Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 18Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 12
OWN 18
-3
93.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Charles Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 15Similar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 15
OWN 15
-2
93.4%
Evan Pantels punt for 34 yds , Emmett Thomas returns for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26FUMBLE
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
95.2%
Cooper Rush pass incomplete to Corey WillisSimilar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
95.1%
Jahray Hayes run for 5 yds to the UNLV 46 Jahray Hayes fumbled, forced by LaKeith Walls, recovered by UNLV Ryan McAleenanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27INT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:457% → 7%
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
92.7%
Lexington Thomas run for 13 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
92.6%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Darren Woods Jr.Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+2
92.6%
Lexington Thomas run for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-1
92.8%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 40
-18
93.0%
Johnny Stanton pass intercepted Nathan Ricketts return for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 43 UNLV Penalty, sideline interference (-15 Yards) to the UNLV 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28TD
1 play · 42 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+42
98.8%
Cooper Rush pass complete to Brandon Childress for 42 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
98.7%
David Greene run for a loss of 2 yards to the UNLV 3Similar
Q4 14:14
2ND & 12
OWN 3
0
98.7%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 14:14
3RD & 12
OWN 3
+4
98.7%
David Greene run for 4 yds to the UNLV 7Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 8
OWN 7
+2
98.7%
Evan Pantels punt for 42 yds , Emmett Thomas returns for 2 yds to the CMich 9 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (Da'Quaun Jamison) to the CMich 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 30MISSED FG
13 plays · 32 yds · 6:4899% → 99%
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
99.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 3
50
+2
99.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+6
99.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the UNLV 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
99.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the UNLV 41Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+4
99.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the UNLV 37Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 5
OPP 37
+10
98.9%
RUSH, Cooper pass incomplete to COOPER, Eric, PENALTY LV pass interference (MYLES, Jay'Onn) 10 yards to the LV27, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the UNLV 24Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+7
99.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 7 yds to the UNLV 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
99.0%
Jahray Hayes run for 2 yds to the UNLV 15Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 15
-10
99.0%
Jahray Hayes run for no gain to the UNLV 15 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (Brandon Childress) to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 18
OPP 25
0
99.0%
Jonathan Ward pass incomplete to Eric CooperSimilar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 18
OPP 25
0
98.9%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the UNLV 25Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 18
OPP 25
+43
99.3%
Brian Eavey 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 31DOWNS
16 plays · 62 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.4%
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds to the UNLV 28Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
99.3%
Lexington Thomas run for 4 yds to the UNLV 32Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
99.4%
Charles Williams run for 2 yds to the UNLV 34Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
99.4%
Charles Williams run for 3 yds to the UNLV 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
99.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 16 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
99.3%
Lexington Thomas run for a loss of 5 yards to the UNLV 48Similar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 15
OWN 48
+5
99.4%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 5 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+9
99.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 9 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 1
OPP 38
+15
99.3%
David Greene run for 15 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
99.2%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+4
99.2%
Charles Williams run for 4 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 6
OPP 19
+6
99.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Mekhi Stevenson for 6 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.2%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Devonte BoydSimilar
Q4 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
99.2%
Lexington Thomas run for no gain to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 5:54
3RD & 10
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Johnny Stanton pass incomplete to Andrew PriceSimilar
Q4 5:54
4TH & 10
OPP 13
0
99.3%
Johnny Stanton pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
99.6%
Matt Krause run for 6 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 4
OWN 19
+9
99.6%
Matt Krause run for 9 yds to the CMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:34
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Darren Woods Jr. for 13 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
-8.8
TD · Q2 5:07
Cooper Rush pass complete to Mark Chapman for 29 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+8.1
TD · Q2 1:51
Cooper Rush pass complete to Corey Willis for 26 yds for a TD, (Brian Eavey KICK)
+7.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com