Try the model
BUF

Buffalo 14 at Nevada 38

NEV
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Mackay Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+0.1NEV 79.1%Brent Zuzo 23 yd FG GOODAWAY 0 - HOME 10 · Q2 14:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:52 · Brent Zuzo 23 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 47Home team on offense+4.5Pregame prior+20.9Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.9Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:50: James Butler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +8.2 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:13: James Butler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +3.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:01: James Butler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +4.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:01: Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 57 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK) — BUF win probability +1.8 pts (now 3%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:51: Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK) — NEV win probability +1.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 40, tied
    Close callPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:27BUF 4th & 8 at NEV 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.9%
    64% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−0.8
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:27NEV 4th & 18 at NEV 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:10BUF 4th & 1 at NEV 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    24.8%−1.4
    28% to make
    Punt
    25.1%−1.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:52NEV 4th & 6 at BUF 6, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.7%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.1%−2.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:52BUF 4th & 7 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:50BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 35, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.9%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:13BUF 4th & 10 at NEV 44, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    7.0%−0.3
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:56BUF 4th & 15 at BUF 32, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:24NEV 4th & 6 at NEV 31, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  11. Q4 8:45NEV 4th & 4 at NEV 40, up 24
    Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:04BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 27, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 5BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:19NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:50NEV Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:13NEV Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:01NEV Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:01BUF Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:51NEV Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:50BUF Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
77.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+4
77.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
77.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 8 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
77.4%
Jordan Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
0
77.4%
Jordan Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+11
77.4%
Kyle Deween punt for 43 yds , Andrew Celis returns for 11 yds to the Nevad 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 2TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:1577% → 78%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
76.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+11
76.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 11 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+8
77.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 8 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 2
50
+5
77.1%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
77.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 7 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q1 12:34
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+20
77.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 20 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
77.2%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 9 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 1
OPP 9
+9
78.1%
Tyler Stewart run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3MISSED FG
8 plays · 56 yds · 1:4722% → 23%
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
77.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 6 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+26
77.5%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
50
+22
77.2%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 22 yds to the Nevad 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
76.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q1 9:14
2ND & 4
OPP 22
-4
76.9%
Jordan Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Nevad 26Similar
Q1 9:14
3RD & 8
OPP 26
0
77.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
77.4%
Adam Mitcheson 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+8
77.7%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+10
77.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 10 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
78.1%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 46
0
78.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 8
OWN 46
-10
77.8%
STEWART, Tyler pass complete to RICHARDSON, J. for 11 yards to the UB43 (HARGROVE, Ishma), PENALTY NEV holding (KREPSZ, Sean) 10 yards to the NEV36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:27
3RD & 18
OWN 36
0
77.5%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:27
4TH & 18
OWN 36
+8
77.3%
Alex Boy punt for 49 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 8 yds to the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 34 yds · 3:5522% → 23%
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
77.6%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
77.6%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+7
77.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for 7 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
77.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+9
77.4%
Tyree Jackson run for 9 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
77.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 2 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
77.0%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 6 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 4
OPP 46
-5
76.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 49Similar
Q1 5:05
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+7
77.1%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Tyler Mabry for 7 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q1 5:05
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+1
76.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Nevad 43Similar
Q1 1:10
4TH & 1
OPP 43
0
77.4%
Tyree Jackson run for no gain to the Nevad 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 6FG
5 plays · 51 yds · 1:1379% → 79%
Q1 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+48
78.8%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 48 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
79.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Buff 8Similar
Q1 1:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
79.1%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
78.9%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
79.1%
Brent Zuzo 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+22
79.1%
Tyree Jackson run for 22 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
78.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to K.J. OsbornSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+3
78.5%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 7
50
0
78.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 7
50
0
79.1%
Kyle Deween punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 8TD
18 plays · 87 yds · 6:4579% → 88%
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
78.9%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 16Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+19
78.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 19 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
79.1%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+27
79.7%
James Butler run for 27 yds to the Buff 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
80.1%
Ty Gangi run for 10 yds to the Buff 18 NEVADA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
80.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for no gain to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 13:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+11
80.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 11 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:35
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
80.1%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 5
OPP 12
+5
79.9%
Tyler Stewart run for 5 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
79.9%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & 0
OPP 6
-5
80.5%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY NEV ineligible downfield on pass (GOLTRY, Nathan) 5 yards to the UB11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
0
79.9%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 9:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+7
79.4%
Tyler Stewart run for 3 yds to the Buff 8 for a 1ST down BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Ryan Williamson) to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:44
1ST & 0
OPP 4
-5
80.5%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 9Similar
Q2 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
79.9%
Tyler Stewart run for 5 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 9:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
79.9%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
88.1%
James Butler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 10 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.2%
Jordan Johnson run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
85.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+2
85.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.8%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
86.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
86.4%
Tyree Jackson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:50
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
86.5%
Kyle Deween punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:0589% → 96%
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
88.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 15 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
89.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
89.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Hasaan Henderson, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+9
89.0%
Tyler Stewart run for 9 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 1
OPP 39
+3
88.7%
Asauni Rufus run for 3 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+7
89.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 3
OPP 29
0
89.0%
Ty Gangi run for no gain to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 5:18
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+15
88.7%
James Butler run for 15 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
89.0%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 19Similar
Q2 5:18
1ST & 15
OPP 19
+8
89.1%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 5:18
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+7
89.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 7 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
95.7%
James Butler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 31 yds · 0:006% → 7%
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
93.6%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Mason Schreck for 31 yds to the Nevad 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
92.7%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q2 1:13
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
93.0%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason SchreckSimilar
Q2 1:13
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
93.1%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Jamarl EilandSimilar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
93.2%
Kyle Deween punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
95.7%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 13TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5995% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
94.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Ahki Muhammad for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
94.8%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
94.8%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
94.9%
Ahki Muhammad run for 7 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+8
95.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
95.0%
James Butler run for 15 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
95.0%
James Butler run for 15 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
95.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+2
95.0%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Buff 17Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 17
+10
94.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Brandon Scott for 10 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
95.0%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Buff 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.0%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Buff 1Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 0
OPP 1
0
95.1%
STEWART, Tyler rush for no gain to the UB1 (FORD, Chris), PENALTY UB offside 0 yards to the UB1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.4%
James Butler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
99.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 14 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
99.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Mason Schreck, broken up by Jaden SawyerSimilar
Q3 8:56
2ND & 10
OWN 37
-5
99.2%
Johnathan Hawkins run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 8:56
3RD & 15
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 8:56
4TH & 15
OWN 32
0
99.3%
Kyle Deween punt for 54 yds, downed at the Nevad 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
99.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 18Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+9
99.6%
Ty Gangi pass complete to Ahki Muhammad for 9 yds to the Nevad 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
99.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+3
99.6%
Ty Gangi run for 3 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q3 7:24
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 7:24
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+1
99.6%
Alex Boy punt for 50 yds , Jamarl Eiland returns for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 2:291% → 3%
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+3
99.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+7
99.3%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
99.3%
Jordan Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
99.2%
Tyree Jackson pass incomplete to Kamathi HolseySimilar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
99.2%
Tyree Jackson run for 7 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+57
97.4%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Jordan Johnson for 57 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 17TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 6:1098% → 100%
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.0%
Tyler Stewart run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.0%
James Butler run for 9 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
98.1%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
98.1%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the Nevad 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
98.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jarred GipsonSimilar
Q3 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
98.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the Nevad 45Similar
Q3 3:01
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+13
98.1%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 13 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
98.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
98.6%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Wyatt Demps, broken up by Boise RossSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+15
98.5%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Boise Ross) to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
98.6%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+5
98.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 5 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
98.6%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+2
98.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 2 yds to the Buff 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
98.6%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 1 yd to the Buff 2Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:010% → 1%
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.9%
Tyree Jackson pass complete to Johnathan Hawkins for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
99.9%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 8 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q4 11:51
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
99.8%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 3 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+28
99.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 28 yds to the Nevad 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
99.9%
Tyree Jackson run for 21 yds to the Nevad 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
99.8%
Jordan Johnson run for 3 yds to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
98.7%
Jordan Johnson run for 12 yds for a TD, (Adam Mitcheson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Ty Gangi pass incomplete to Hasaan HendersonSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+12
99.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 12 yds to the Nevad 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 37Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+3
99.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for 3 yds to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
99.1%
Jaxson Kincaide run for no gain to the Nevad 40Similar
Q4 8:45
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
99.0%
Alex Boy punt for 49 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+11
99.3%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 11 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
99.3%
Grant Rohach run for 4 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q4 6:04
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+1
99.3%
Johnathan Hawkins run for 1 yd to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 6:04
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Grant Rohach pass incomplete to Kamathi Holsey, broken up by Cameron TurnerSimilar
Q4 6:04
4TH & 5
OWN 27
0
99.3%
Kyle Deween punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Andrew Celis at the Nevad 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 21END OF GAME
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.4%
Blake Wright run for 6 yds to the Nevad 41Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+3
99.4%
Blake Wright run for 3 yds to the Nevad 44Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+4
99.4%
Blake Wright run for 4 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.4%
Blake Wright run for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 4:19
2ND & 6
OPP 48
-1
99.4%
Kelton Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 4:19
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+11
99.4%
Kelton Moore run for 11 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
99.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 6:50
James Butler run for 2 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+8.2
TD · Q3 9:01
James Butler run for 1 yd for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+4.3
TD · Q2 1:13
James Butler run for 4 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)
+3.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com