Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 17 at Toledo 52

TOL
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Glass Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:02 · Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 160Pregame prior+10.1Home team on offense+35.6Score differential+29.7Garbage-time factor+9.5Blowout margin+15.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:45: Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +0.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 5:36: Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 9 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +1.2 pts (now 91%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 13:40: Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +3.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 10:27: Jameson Vest 22 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +1.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:36: Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK) — TOL win probability +2.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 2 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 11 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 17 at TOL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 27, tied
    Close callPunted · 10.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:40FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 13, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:31FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 18, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:01TOL 4th & 2 at FRES 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.4%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q1 1:37FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:34FRES 4th & 11 at FRES 17, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.9%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:27TOL 4th & 4 at FRES 5, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 94.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%−0.2
    92% to make
    Punt
    92.0%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:22FRES 4th & 23 at FRES 13, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.4%−1.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 8:41TOL 4th & 5 at FRES 40, up 24
    Close callPunted · 95.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    95.2%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    95.3%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:51FRES 4th & 4 at FRES 8, down 24
    Close callPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%
    46% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:44TOL 4th & 3 at FRES 28, up 24
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    94.5%−1.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:44FRES 4th & 17 at TOL 48, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.9%−0.5
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 24 at FRES 21, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−1.2
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 10:36FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.5%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  16. Q3 2:01TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 2, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:51FRES 4th & 16 at TOL 24, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 12:02FRES 4th & 10 at FRES 27, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:12TOL 4th & 4 at FRES 34, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:58FRES 4th & 6 at FRES 34, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7FRES made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 9:45TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:36TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:40TOL Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:36TOL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 5:37TOL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:02FRES Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:06TOL Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:41FRES Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 4:03TOL Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 3 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
90.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+12
90.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
90.1%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 3 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-10
90.1%
HUNT, Kareem rush for 3 yards to the TOLEDO41 (HUGHES, Brandon), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (NORTON, Storm) 10 yards to the TOLEDO28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
90.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey JonesSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 17
OWN 28
0
90.1%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 28
+1
90.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 45 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 1 yd to the FrsSt 29 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
89.5%
Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 15 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 13
OWN 15
+11
89.5%
Dontel James run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+1
89.5%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
89.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:4189% → 90%
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
89.1%
Kareem Hunt run for 12 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
89.2%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 11:26
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+15
89.1%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to JONES, Corey, PENALTY FS personal foul (MADSEN, Nathan) 15 yards to the FS38, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
89.3%
Damion Jones-Moore run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+36
89.6%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 36 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0011% → 11%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-5
89.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 15
OWN 9
-6
89.3%
Chason Virgil sacked by Treyvon Hester for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 3Similar
Q1 9:40
3RD & 21
OWN 3
+10
89.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 13 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 9:40
4TH & 11
OWN 13
0
89.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5TD
6 plays · 60 yds · 2:3289% → 91%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
89.3%
Logan Woodside run for 6 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+28
89.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 28 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
89.4%
Terry Swanson run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-3
89.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
89.4%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q1 5:36
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+9
90.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 9 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
90.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+4
90.1%
Chason Virgil run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q1 5:31
3RD & 6
OWN 23
-5
90.2%
Chason Virgil sacked by Treyvon Hester for a loss of 5 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q1 5:31
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
90.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
90.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 4:01
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+3
90.8%
Kareem Hunt run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q1 4:01
3RD & 2
OPP 48
0
90.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael Roberts, broken up by James BaileySimilar
Q1 4:01
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
90.5%
Nick Ellis punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:5410% → 10%
Q1 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
89.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q1 2:31
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+1
90.0%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q1 1:37
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
90.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q1 1:37
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
90.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:4891% → 94%
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
90.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+9
90.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
90.9%
Kareem Hunt run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+14
91.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to D'Vario Montgomery for 14 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+9
91.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 17
+10
91.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
94.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 13:34
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-1
93.8%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q2 13:34
2ND & 11
OWN 17
0
93.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q2 13:34
3RD & 11
OWN 17
0
93.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q2 13:34
4TH & 11
OWN 17
0
93.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1795% → 96%
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
94.8%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+13
94.8%
Terry Swanson run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+31
94.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 31 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
94.8%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 9Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+4
94.8%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 5Similar
Q2 12:44
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
94.4%
Logan Woodside pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:27
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+22
95.5%
Jameson Vest 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
94.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 16 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
94.7%
Dontel James run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 12
OWN 24
+2
94.7%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q2 10:22
3RD & 10
OWN 26
0
94.8%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 10
OWN 26
-13
94.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-13 Yards) to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q2 10:22
4TH & 23
OWN 13
0
94.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-4
96.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Art Thompkins for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 14
OWN 41
+4
96.3%
Logan Woodside run for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-5
96.2%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass complete to JOHNSON,Jon'Vea for 32 yards to the FS23, PENALTY TOLEDO ineligible downfield on pass (ROBERTS, Michael) 5 yards to the TOLEDO40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 15
OWN 40
+15
96.2%
WOODSIDE, Logan pass incomplete to THOMPSON, Cody, PENALTY FS pass interference (ELLIS, Jamal) 15 yards to the FS45, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
96.4%
Kareem Hunt run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-1
96.4%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
96.3%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Kareem HuntSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
96.1%
Nick Ellis punt for 38 yds, downed at the FrsSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
95.1%
Chason Virgil run for no gain to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q2 6:51
2ND & 10
OWN 2
+6
95.2%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 8Similar
Q2 6:51
3RD & 4
OWN 8
0
95.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Dontel JamesSimilar
Q2 6:51
4TH & 4
OWN 8
0
95.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the FrsSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0097% → 96%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
96.6%
Terry Swanson run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+9
96.6%
Terry Swanson run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
96.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Michael RobertsSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+2
96.6%
Terry Swanson run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 8
OPP 33
+5
96.5%
Terry Swanson run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 3
OPP 28
+45
96.4%
Jameson Vest 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
95.4%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+13
95.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-9
95.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 6 yds to the 50 yard line FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jamire Jordan) to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 19
OWN 35
+1
95.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 1 yd to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+23
95.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 23 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
95.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 3 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q2 3:44
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
95.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 3:44
3RD & 12
OPP 43
0
95.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 12
OPP 43
-5
95.5%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 3:44
4TH & 17
OPP 48
0
95.6%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17END OF HALF
1 play · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
97.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds to the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -14 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
95.8%
Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 32
-11
96.0%
Chason Virgil sacked by Ja'Wuan Woodley for a loss of 11 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 24
OWN 21
0
96.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Kadar HollmanSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 24
OWN 21
0
96.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 32 yds, downed at the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
8 plays · 53 yds · 2:5497% → 100%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
97.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
97.0%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 16 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
97.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 16Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+5
97.0%
Kareem Hunt run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
97.0%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Corey Jones, broken up by DeShawn PottsSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-15
97.0%
HUNT, Kareem rush for 7 yards to the FS4 (BAILEY,James), PENALTY TOLEDO face mask (PERSCHON, Paul) 15 yards to the FS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 25
OPP 26
+8
96.9%
Terry Swanson run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 17
OPP 18
+18
99.5%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 3 yds to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 33
-15
99.4%
JAMES, Dontel rush for 24 yards to the TOLEDO43 (MATHIS, Trevon;OLEKANMA, Richard), PENALTY FS personal foul (PATTERSON, David) 15 yards to the FS18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 22
OWN 18
+18
99.4%
Dontel James run for 18 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean Johnson, broken up by Trevon MathisSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 4
OWN 36
-5
99.4%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 9
OWN 31
0
99.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Corey Jones at the Toled 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 3:27100% → 100%
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
99.6%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Darryl Richards, broken up by Stratton BrownSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+11
99.6%
Kareem Hunt run for 11 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
99.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Corey Jones for 6 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-2
99.7%
Kareem Hunt run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 9:04
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+47
99.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Cody Thompson for 47 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
99.6%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 9:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.6%
Terry Swanson run for no gain to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q3 5:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
99.7%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 6 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 22TD
10 plays · 66 yds · 3:270% → 0%
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
99.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense (Treyvon Hester) to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 5
OWN 39
+1
99.7%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+8
99.7%
Chason Virgil run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for no gain to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+20
99.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 20 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-15
99.7%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to MARTENS, Michael, PENALTY FS illegal block (JAMES, Dontel) 15 yards to the TOLEDO47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:29
1ST & 25
OPP 47
+16
99.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q3 5:29
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+22
99.7%
Chason Virgil run for 22 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 9 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+1
99.8%
Terry Swanson run for 1 yd to the Toled 2Similar
Q3 2:01
2ND & 9
OWN 2
0
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Jon'Vea Johnson TOLEDO Penalty, IE ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 2:01
3RD & 9
OWN 2
0
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass incomplete to Cody ThompsonSimilar
Q3 2:01
4TH & 9
OWN 2
+33
99.8%
Nick Ellis punt for 49 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 33 yds to the Toled 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 24FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 1:060% → 0%
Q3 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
99.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+6
99.8%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+3
99.8%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 9
-15
99.8%
VIRGIL, Chason pass complete to O'NEAL, Dejonte for 9 yards to the TOLEDO0, clock 14:55, PENALTY FS illegal block 15 yards to the TOLEDO24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+42
99.8%
Kody Kroening 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:45100% → 100%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.8%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd to the Toled 26Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
99.8%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+33
99.8%
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 33 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
99.8%
Art Thompkins run for 13 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+20
99.8%
Art Thompkins run for 20 yds to the FrsSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
99.8%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q4 12:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 26PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
99.9%
Chason Virgil sacked by Jack Linch for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q4 12:02
2ND & 16
OWN 21
-7
99.9%
Chason Virgil sacked by Daniel Davis and Jhonny Williams for a loss of 7 yards to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 12:02
3RD & 23
OWN 14
+13
99.9%
Zach Kline pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 13 yds to the FrsSt 27Similar
Q4 12:02
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+4
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+17
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
Brad Smith run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+2
99.9%
Michael Julian run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Michael Julian pass incomplete to Adam Kulon, broken up by Patrick BelonySimilar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Nick Ellis punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 28TD
1 play · 85 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+85
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 85 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 29TD
6 plays · 82 yds · 2:34100% → 100%
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 9 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+5
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 5 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
99.9%
Brad Smith run for 7 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 6:37
2ND & 3
OWN 39
-1
99.9%
Brad Smith run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 4:03
3RD & 4
OWN 38
+62
99.9%
Michael Julian pass complete to Zach Yousey for 62 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Zach Kline run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 3:58
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Zach Kline pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
3RD & 6
OWN 34
0
99.9%
Zach Kline pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:58
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
100.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 7 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 3:07
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+9
99.9%
Art Thompkins run for 9 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
100.0%
Art Thompkins run for 4 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 3:07
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Brad Smith run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 13:40
Kareem Hunt run for 7 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+3.4
TD · Q3 10:36
Logan Woodside pass complete to Jon'Vea Johnson for 18 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+2.6
TD · Q1 5:36
Logan Woodside pass complete to Michael Roberts for 9 yds for a TD, (Jameson Vest KICK)
+1.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com