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SAC

Sacramento State 3 at Fresno State 31

FRES
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Valley Children's Stadium
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Win probability · FRES
modelFRES aheadSAC aheadconfidence bandkey playFRES scoreSAC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:22 · Blake Cusick punt for 53 yds, downed at the SacSt 3
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 122Home team on offense+8.4Pregame prior+7.5Score differential+2.1Garbage-time factor+3.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Blowout margin−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 0:00: Devon Medeiros 44 yd FG GOOD — SAC win probability +9.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: SAC has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 1:03: Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST down — FRES win probability +5.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:24: Dontel James run for 17 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +7.8 pts (now 94%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q4 12:17: Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck — FRES win probability +5.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:45: Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +4.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
FRES made the numbers' call on 6 of 9SAC made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00SAC 4th & 5 at SAC 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:58FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.3%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:05SAC 4th & 10 at SAC 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 10:00FRES 4th & 12 at SAC 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−<0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    50.8%−<0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  5. Q1 8:32SAC 4th & 15 at SAC 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.4%−0.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00SAC 4th & 1 at SAC 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 42.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%−0.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:49FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.2%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:37SAC 4th & 4 at SAC 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.6%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.6%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:21FRES 4th & 4 at SAC 4, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.6%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−5.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:21SAC 4th & 2 at SAC 25, down 10
    Close callPunted · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.2%−0.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:54FRES 4th & 11 at SAC 36, up 10
    Close callPunted · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%−0.4
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    64.9%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−0.5
    average punt
  12. Q2 3:25SAC 4th & 10 at SAC 15, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−1.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.4%
    average punt
  13. Q2 1:25FRES 4th & 11 at SAC 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    67.7%
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    67.6%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q2 0:23SAC 4th & 12 at SAC 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%−1.7
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  15. Q3 15:00FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 26, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.2%−1.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.0%
    average punt
  16. Q3 14:06SAC 4th & 2 at SAC 49, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%−1.6
    average punt
  17. Q3 9:22FRES 4th & 5 at FRES 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.8%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%
    average punt
  18. Q3 8:43SAC 4th & 7 at SAC 6, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.1%
    average punt
  19. Q3 6:38FRES 4th & 13 at SAC 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.1
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    72.3%−0.7
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.0%
    average punt
  20. Q3 4:29SAC 4th & 14 at SAC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.5%−4.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  21. Q4 10:45SAC 4th & 12 at SAC 28, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  22. Q4 5:03SAC 4th & 2 at SAC 33, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
FRES made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:02FRES Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 14:24FRES Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 10:45FRES Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 5:03FRES Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SACDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
68.6%
Demetrius Warren run for 1 yd to the SacSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
68.6%
Demetrius Warren run for no gain to the SacSt 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
68.6%
Nate Ketteringham run for 4 yds to the SacSt 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
68.6%
Nolan Merker punt for 35 yds, downed at the FrsSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
68.4%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
68.5%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 12:58
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+2
68.3%
Chason Virgil run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 12:58
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
68.3%
Blake Cusick punt for 59 yds, downed at the SacSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 44 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+44
68.1%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to Cody Demps for 44 yds to the SacSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
67.7%
Demetrius Warren run for no gain to the SacSt 45Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
67.8%
Nate Ketteringham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
67.9%
Nate Ketteringham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
68.2%
Nolan Merker punt for 24 yds, downed at the FrsSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+17
68.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 17 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
68.4%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the SacSt 44Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
68.5%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the SacSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
68.5%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the SacSt 33Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 7
OPP 33
0
68.6%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 7
OPP 33
0
68.4%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 7
OPP 33
-5
68.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SacSt 38Similar
Q1 10:00
4TH & 12
OPP 38
0
67.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SacSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 5PUNT
9 plays · 19 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+14
67.5%
Jordan Robinson run for 14 yds to the SacSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
67.5%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to John McGill for 9 yds to the SacSt 34Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 1
OWN 34
0
67.2%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+1
67.3%
Jordan Robinson run for 1 yd to the SacSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
67.4%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the SacSt 30Similar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 15
OWN 30
0
67.5%
Nate Ketteringham pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 15
OWN 30
-2
67.5%
Jordan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SacSt 28Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+2
67.8%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to Jaelin Ratliff for 2 yds to the SacSt 30Similar
Q1 8:32
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+46
67.9%
Nolan Merker punt for 46 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6INT
3 plays · -3 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
67.1%
Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 20 Dontel James fumbled, recovered by FrsSt Dontel JamesSimilar
Q1 5:16
2ND & 13
OWN 20
0
67.0%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 13
OWN 20
-1
66.6%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Nick Crouch return for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 7INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
65.8%
Ernie Timoteo run for no gain to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q1 4:20
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
65.9%
Nate Ketteringham pass intercepted Jamal Ellis return for no gain to the SacSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
7 plays · 48 yds · 2:3868% → 72%
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
68.0%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
67.9%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the SacSt 45Similar
Q1 3:40
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+9
67.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 9 yds to the SacSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+15
68.0%
Dontel James run for 15 yds to the SacSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
68.3%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the SacSt 16Similar
Q1 3:40
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+8
68.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 8 yds to the SacSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
72.2%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 8 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:0229% → 29%
Q1 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
70.7%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to Cody Demps for 6 yds to the SacSt 31Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
70.2%
Demetrius Warren run for 3 yds to the SacSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
70.4%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete to John McGillSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
71.0%
Nolan Merker punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
71.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dontel James for 6 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 35
-1
71.8%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
71.0%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:49
4TH & 5
OWN 34
0
70.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
70.8%
Quincy Jountti run for 3 yds to the SacSt 33Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
70.6%
Nate Ketteringham run for 3 yds to the SacSt 36Similar
Q2 13:37
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
70.7%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete to Jaelin RatliffSimilar
Q2 13:37
4TH & 4
OWN 36
+10
71.3%
Nolan Merker punt for 49 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 10 yds to the FrsSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 12FG
13 plays · 71 yds · 4:3872% → 75%
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
71.8%
Dontel James run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+26
71.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 26 yds to the FrsSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
72.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+1
72.7%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+18
71.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 18 yds to the SacSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
73.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the SacSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
73.2%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the SacSt 24Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & 11
OPP 24
0
73.1%
Dontel James run for no gain to the SacSt 24Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & 11
OPP 24
+19
72.5%
Dontel James run for 19 yds to the SacSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
73.2%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the SacSt 3Similar
Q2 11:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
73.2%
Dontel James run for a loss of 1 yard to the SacSt 4Similar
Q2 11:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
72.7%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:21
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
74.5%
Kody Kroening 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
74.6%
Ernie Timoteo run for 4 yds to the SacSt 21Similar
Q2 7:21
2ND & 6
OWN 21
0
74.6%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete to Cody Demps, broken up by Tyquwan GlassSimilar
Q2 7:21
3RD & 6
OWN 21
+4
75.3%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to Jordan Robinson for 4 yds to the SacSt 25Similar
Q2 7:21
4TH & 2
OWN 25
0
75.6%
Nolan Merker punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the FrsSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+7
76.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 7 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 3
OWN 49
0
76.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+5
75.6%
Chason Virgil run for 5 yds to the SacSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-5
76.6%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the FrsSt 49Similar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 15
OWN 49
+16
75.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 16 yds to the SacSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
76.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q2 5:54
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
76.6%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 1 yard to the SacSt 36Similar
Q2 5:54
3RD & 11
OPP 36
0
75.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 5:54
4TH & 11
OPP 36
0
74.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 21 yds , Isiah Hennie returns for no gain to the SacSt 15 Isiah Hennie fumbled, recovered by SacSt Isiah HennieSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q2 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
76.0%
Demetrius Warren run for 1 yd to the SacSt 16Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 9
OWN 16
0
76.2%
Nate Ketteringham pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:25
3RD & 9
OWN 16
-1
77.0%
Nate Ketteringham sacked by Justin Green for a loss of 1 yard to the SacSt 15Similar
Q2 3:25
4TH & 10
OWN 15
+3
77.4%
Nolan Merker punt for 33 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 3 yds to the FrsSt 18 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the FrsSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:3978% → 78%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+15
78.4%
Chason Virgil run for 15 yds to the SacSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
78.6%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+1
78.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 1 yd to the SacSt 39Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 9
OPP 39
-2
79.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for a loss of 2 yards to the SacSt 41Similar
Q2 1:25
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
77.9%
Blake Cusick punt for 22 yds, downed at the SacSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 10 yds · 0:5121% → 20%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
79.3%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to Andre Lindsey for 4 yds to the SacSt 23Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+8
79.2%
Nate Ketteringham run for 8 yds to the SacSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
79.0%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete to Cody DempsSimilar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-2
79.2%
Nate Ketteringham sacked by Nela Otukolo for a loss of 2 yards to the SacSt 29Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
79.5%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete to Cody DempsSimilar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
80.0%
Nolan Merker punt for 44 yds , TEAM returns for no gain to the FrsSt 27 TEAM fumbled, recovered by SacSt Ernest JenkinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 18FG
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+44
70.7%
Devon Medeiros 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0075% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-8
74.7%
Chason Virgil sacked by Ben Sorensen for a loss of 8 yards to the FrsSt 17Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 17
0
74.2%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+9
73.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 9 yds to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
72.7%
Blake Cusick punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Isiah Hennie at the SacSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q3 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
72.6%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to John McGill for 4 yds to the SacSt 45Similar
Q3 14:06
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
71.7%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete to John McGillSimilar
Q3 14:06
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+4
72.6%
Nate Ketteringham run for 4 yds to the SacSt 49Similar
Q3 14:06
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
72.9%
Nolan Merker punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the FrsSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 3:2375% → 76%
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
-6
74.8%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 20 FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (-10 Yards) to the FrsSt 10Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 16
OWN 10
+16
74.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 16 yds to the FrsSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
75.0%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 30Similar
Q3 12:45
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+5
75.0%
Chason Virgil run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 35Similar
Q3 12:45
3RD & 1
OWN 35
+4
75.2%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-15
76.0%
FRESNO ST Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 25
OWN 24
-11
74.7%
Chason Virgil sacked by George Obinna for a loss of 11 yards to the FrsSt 13Similar
Q3 9:22
2ND & 36
OWN 13
+31
75.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 31 yds to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 9:22
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
77.3%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 9:22
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
76.0%
Blake Cusick punt for 53 yds, downed at the SacSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0025% → 23%
Q3 8:43
1ST & 10
OWN 3
-2
74.7%
Jordan Robinson run for a loss of 2 yards to the SacSt 1Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 12
OWN 1
0
75.1%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, delay of game ( Yards) to the SacSt 1Similar
Q3 8:43
2ND & 12
OWN 1
+5
75.1%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to Johnnie Rucker for 5 yds to the SacSt 6Similar
Q3 8:43
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
76.0%
Nate Ketteringham pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:43
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
76.6%
Jaime Medina punt for 42 yds, downed at the SacSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:0081% → 77%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+6
80.6%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the SacSt 42Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+4
80.6%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the SacSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
80.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
80.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Dejonte O'Neal for 7 yds to the SacSt 31Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 3
OPP 31
-10
79.9%
FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the SacSt 41Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 13
OPP 41
0
78.6%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Caelan BarnesSimilar
Q3 6:38
4TH & 13
OPP 41
0
76.8%
Blake Cusick punt for 35 yds, downed at the SacSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0024% → 23%
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
75.8%
Demetrius Warren run for 8 yds to the SacSt 14Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 2
OWN 14
0
75.5%
Demetrius Warren run for no gain to the SacSt 14Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+14
76.6%
Demetrius Warren run for 14 yds to the SacSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
74.5%
Jordan Robinson run for 5 yds to the SacSt 33Similar
Q3 4:29
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
73.8%
Jordan Robinson run for 1 yd to the SacSt 34Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 4
OWN 34
-10
74.8%
SACRAMENTO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Ivan Espiritu) to the SacSt 24Similar
Q3 4:29
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
76.7%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete to Cody DempsSimilar
Q3 4:29
4TH & 14
OWN 24
+39
77.4%
Nolan Merker punt for 39 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 25TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 1:3983% → 94%
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
82.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 10 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
84.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 17 yds to the SacSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
84.6%
Dontel James run for 8 yds to the SacSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+12
85.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 12 yds to the SacSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
93.7%
Dontel James run for 17 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 26INT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.3%
Nate Ketteringham pass incomplete to Cody DempsSimilar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+6
90.3%
Jordan Robinson run for 6 yds to the SacSt 21Similar
Q4 14:24
3RD & 4
OWN 21
+11
90.4%
Nate Ketteringham pass complete to Jordan Robinson for 11 yds to the SacSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
89.2%
Nate Ketteringham run for 2 yds to the SacSt 34Similar
Q4 14:24
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
89.1%
Nate Ketteringham pass intercepted Tyquwan Glass return for no gain to the SacSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 27TD
5 plays · 42 yds · 1:3295% → 99%
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
94.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+17
94.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 17 yds to the SacSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+17
94.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 17 yds to the SacSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
94.7%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 4 yds to the SacSt 4Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.2%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 4 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 28PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
98.6%
Jordan Robinson run for 1 yd to the SacSt 16Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+14
98.6%
Quincy Jountti run for 14 yds to the SacSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
98.5%
Quincy Jountti run for 4 yds to the SacSt 34Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
-8
98.5%
Nate Ketteringham sacked by Nathan Madsen for a loss of 8 yards to the SacSt 26Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 14
OWN 26
+2
98.7%
Nate Ketteringham run for 2 yds to the SacSt 28Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 12
OWN 28
+8
98.7%
Blake Cuzzopoli punt for 31 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 8 yds to the FrsSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 29TD
9 plays · 51 yds · 2:2499% → 100%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.4%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the SacSt 46Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 5
OPP 46
0
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+24
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 24 yds to the SacSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
99.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+6
99.6%
Dontel James run for 6 yds to the SacSt 16Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+5
99.6%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the SacSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
99.6%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SACDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Ernie Timoteo run for 1 yd to the SacSt 26Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
99.9%
Nolan Merker run for 4 yds to the SacSt 30Similar
Q4 5:03
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+3
99.9%
Quincy Jountti run for 3 yds to the SacSt 33Similar
Q4 5:03
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
99.9%
Jaime Medina punt for 35 yds, downed at the FrsSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
99.9%
Treyvon Green run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+12
99.9%
Treyvon Green run for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.9%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the SacSt 47Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
99.9%
Treyvon Green run for 10 yds to the SacSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
99.9%
Zach Kline run for 9 yds to the SacSt 28Similar
Q4 3:06
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+3
99.9%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the SacSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q2 0:00
Devon Medeiros 44 yd FG GOOD
-9.3
TD · Q4 14:24
Dontel James run for 17 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
+7.8
KEY PLAY · Q4 12:17
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck
+5.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com