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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadWYO aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreWYO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:08 · Cooper Rothe 27 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 5:57: Alonzo Moore 63 Yd pass from Tommy Armstrong Jr. (Drew Brown Kick) — NEB win probability +3.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:48: Josh Allen pass intercepted for a TD Kieron Williams return for 23 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +5.5 pts (now 95%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:35: Brian Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK) — WYO win probability +6.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: WYO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:11: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 34 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +4.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:59: Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 3 of 6WYO made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
- Q1 15:00NEB 4th & 19 at NEB 44, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 93.3% before the snapGo for it93.2%−0.211% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call93.4%average punt
- Q1 11:09WYO 4th & 3 at WYO 40, tiedClose callPunted · 7.7% before the snapGo for it7.7%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.7%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 1:16WYO 4th & 8 at NEB 25, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 9.2% before the snapGo for it9.2%−<0.133% to convertField goalTheir call9.2%66% to makePunt8.2%−1.0average punt
- Q2 14:22WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 22, down 7Close callPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it9.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.0%−0.2average punt
- Q2 9:03NEB 4th & 4 at WYO 12, up 7Close callKicked a field goal · 89.8% before the snapGo for it89.8%45% to convertField goalTheir call89.7%−0.186% to makePunt87.9%−1.9average punt
- Q2 9:03WYO 4th & 1 at WYO 34, down 10Close callPunted · 9.4% before the snapGo for it9.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.3%−0.4average punt
- Q2 3:37WYO 4th & 10 at NEB 29, down 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.4% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.329% to convertField goalTheir call6.1%58% to makePunt4.0%−2.1average punt
- Q2 3:37NEB 4th & 3 at midfield, up 17Close callPunted · 94.5% before the snapGo for it94.6%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.1%−0.4average punt
- Q2 0:08WYO 4th & 12 at NEB 35, down 17Close callWent for it · 6.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.3%−0.524% to convertField goal6.8%45% to makePunt6.0%−0.7average punt
- Q3 11:08WYO 4th & 8 at NEB 10, down 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.6% before the snapGo for it9.8%−0.528% to convertField goalTheir call10.3%88% to makePunt5.8%−4.5average punt
- Q3 11:00NEB 4th & 10 at NEB 45, up 7Close callWent for it · 86.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call86.2%−0.729% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt86.9%average punt
- Q3 10:05WYO 4th & 14 at NEB 34, down 7Close callWent for it · 12.7% before the snapGo for itTheir call11.9%−0.819% to convertField goal12.7%47% to makePunt12.2%−0.5average punt
- Q3 8:32NEB 4th & 28 at NEB 46, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.7% before the snapGo for it85.6%−2.17% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.7%average punt
- Q4 4:33NEB 4th & 4 at WYO 9, up 35Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%43% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.189% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 7WYO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 6:12NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.8%97% to makeGo for two91.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:57NEB Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.3%97% to makeGo for two93.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:08WYO Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call9.3%97% to makeGo for two9.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:48NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:35WYO Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call11.2%97% to makeGo for two11.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:11NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:59NEB Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.3%97% to makeGo for two99.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:28NEB Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:15NEB Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartNEBDrive 1PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+15
94.9%
Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Reilly, Brandon, PENALTY WY pass interference (EPPS, Marcus) 15 yards to the NEB41, 1ST DOWN NEB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+5
94.9%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 46 WYOMING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-2
94.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 44 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, recovered by Neb Tommy Armstrong Jr.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+9
94.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 9 yds to the Wyom 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-8
94.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by D.J. May for a loss of 8 yards to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 18
OWN 45
-1
94.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Tre Bryant for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 7 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
94.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 2 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD7 plays · 97 yds · 3:0594% → 94%
Q1 9:17
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+8
93.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 8 yds to the Neb 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 12
OWN 16
+39
93.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 39 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+38
93.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 38 yds to the Wyom 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 4MISSED FG12 plays · 50 yds · 4:566% → 8%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
93.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 14 yds to the Wyom 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+7
93.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jacob Hollister for 7 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+17
93.4%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 17 yds to the Neb 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+6
93.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 6 yds to the Neb 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5INT6 plays · 69 yds · 1:1693% → 93%
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+55
92.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 55 yds to the Wyom 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 1
OPP 10
-4
93.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 6 yds to the Wyom 4 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Wyom 14Similar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 5
OPP 14
0
93.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Brandon Reilly, broken up by Antonio HullSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 14
+9
92.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 9 yds to the Wyom 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+13
92.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass intercepted Andrew Wingard return for 13 yds to the Wyom 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 6PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 14:22
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+8
92.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 8 yds to the Wyom 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7FG9 plays · 52 yds · 3:5892% → 92%
Q2 13:01
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+18
92.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 18 yds to the Wyom 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
92.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wyom 46 Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, recovered by Neb Tommy Armstrong Jr.Similar
Q2 13:01
3RD & 11
OPP 46
+28
92.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 28 yds to the Wyom 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 8PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 9:03
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
91.9%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 6 yds to the Wyom 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9TD3 plays · 65 yds · 1:1692% → 95%
WYODrive 10MISSED FG9 plays · 46 yds · 2:205% → 6%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+31
94.7%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 31 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
94.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to Joseph Parker for 8 yds to the Neb 36Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
94.3%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jacob Hollister, broken up by Nathan GerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 11PUNT7 plays · 21 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
WYODrive 12TD7 plays · 52 yds · 0:446% → 8%
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-7
93.6%
Josh Allen sacked by Michael Rose-Ivey and Ross Dzuris for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 17
OPP 40
0
94.5%
Josh Allen pass incomplete to Jake Maulhardt, broken up by Joshua KaluSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 17
OPP 40
+5
94.7%
Josh Allen run for 5 yds to the Neb 35 Josh Allen fumbled, forced by Dedrick Young II, recovered by Wyom Josh AllenSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 12
OPP 35
+35
91.8%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 35 yds for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 14FG12 plays · 65 yds · 3:529% → 11%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
90.6%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 8 yds to the Wyom 33Similar
Q3 13:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+11
90.3%
Josh Allen pass complete to Tanner Gentry for 11 yds to the Neb 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:56
2ND & 11
OPP 29
+17
91.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 4 yds to the Neb 25 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, personal foul (Carlos Davis) to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 15DOWNS5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0091% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 16INT6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0012% → 10%
NEBDrive 17PUNT11 plays · 23 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
89.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Brandon Reilly for 14 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
90.3%
Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Moore, Alonzo, PENALTY WY pass interference (HULL, Antonio) 9 yards to the WY49, 1ST DOWN NEB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+8
91.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 8 yds to the Wyom 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-7
91.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 3 yds to the Wyom 33 NEBRASKA Penalty, illegal block (Cethan Carter) to the Wyom 43Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 17
OPP 43
0
90.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Sam Cotton, broken up by Logan WilsonSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 17
OPP 43
-11
90.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Carl Granderson for a loss of 11 yards to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 28
OWN 46
0
89.2%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Austin Conway at the Wyom 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 18INT TD2 plays · 0 yds · 0:2111% → 5%
WYODrive 19TD8 plays · 76 yds · 3:066% → 14%
Q3 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+15
92.9%
ALLEN, Josh pass incomplete to HOLLISTER, J., PENALTY NEB pass interference (Kalu, Joshua) 15 yards to the NEB15, 1ST DOWN WY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+15
93.0%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jordan Ellis for 15 yds to the Neb 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20TD9 plays · 76 yds · 3:1790% → 97%
Q3 1:28
2ND & 4
OWN 30
+9
90.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 9 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:28
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+7
90.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 7 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+5
91.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 5 yds to the Wyom 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+11
92.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Terrell Newby for 11 yds to the Wyom 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
96.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 34 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 21FUMBLE2 plays · -15 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
95.6%
Josh Allen run for a loss of 15 yards to the Wyom 1 Josh Allen fumbled, recovered by Neb Ross Dzuris , return for 9 yds to the Wyom 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22TD1 play · 1 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 23INT3 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
Josh Allen pass complete to Jake Maulhardt for 6 yds to the Wyom 31Similar
Q4 12:59
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+21
99.1%
Josh Allen pass intercepted Nathan Gerry return for 6 yds to the Neb 37 NEBRASKA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Nathan Gerry) to the Neb 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD10 plays · 53 yds · 4:4899% → 100%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
99.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 11 yds to the Wyom 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+10
99.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Wyom 16 for a 1ST down WYOMING Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Lucas Wacha) to the Wyom 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 25INT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:19
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+27
100.0%
Josh Allen pass intercepted Chris Jones return for 27 yds to the Wyom 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26TD1 play · 35 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
100.0%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Gabe Rahn for 35 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WYODrive 27INT3 plays · 11 yds · 0:000% → 0%
NEBDrive 28DOWNS7 plays · 34 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+11
100.0%
Tre Bryant run for 11 yds to the Wyom 15 Tre Bryant fumbled, forced by Andrew Wingard, for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
3RD & 1
OPP 6
-3
100.0%
Tre Bryant run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wyom 9 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:35
Brian Hill run for 1 yd for a TD, (Cooper Rothe KICK)
-6.9
TD · Q3 4:48
Josh Allen pass intercepted for a TD Kieron Williams return for 23 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+5.5
TD · Q4 13:11
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 34 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+4.5