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UTSA

UTSA 14 at Colorado State 23

CSU
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium
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Win probability · CSU
modelCSU aheadUTSA aheadconfidence bandkey playCSU scoreUTSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 8:28 · Yannis Routsas punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the TexSA 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+27.0+13.50−13.5−27.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 71Pregame prior+13.8Home team on offense+1.6Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.6Score differential+0.1Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:34: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 10 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +3.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:18: Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK) — CSU win probability +7.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:20: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.1 pts (now 32%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q2 0:00: Wyatt Bryan 28 yd FG GOOD — CSU win probability +5.2 pts (now 78%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 14:51: Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Danny Nwosu — CSU win probability +8.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: CSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CSU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10UTSA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:48CSU 4th & 3 at UTSA 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    75.1%−<0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    74.7%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 0:29CSU 4th & 1 at UTSA 1, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    68.9%−1.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.6%−4.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.3%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:11CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 47, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:13UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 16, down 3
    Close callPunted · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:57CSU 4th & 17 at CSU 45, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−1.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:28UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.8%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 21, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.4%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:00CSU 4th & 11 at UTSA 41, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    75.6%−0.5
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    76.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:03UTSA 4th & 2 at CSU 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    23.9%−2.8
    34% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:03CSU 4th & 6 at CSU 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.3%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.8%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00UTSA 4th & 2 at CSU 30, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    25.9%−2.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.3%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:51CSU 4th & 10 at CSU 30, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.0%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:23UTSA 4th & 22 at UTSA 6, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.0%−4.7
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.7%
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:41CSU 4th & 9 at UTSA 48, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.8
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:34UTSA 4th & 6 at UTSA 19, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.3%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.5%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:59CSU 4th & 7 at CSU 27, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−1.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:32UTSA 4th & 14 at UTSA 13, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−2.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.3%
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:24CSU 4th & 8 at UTSA 28, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 92.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.0%
    60% to make
    Punt
    88.4%−3.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 1:43UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 28, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.1%
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UTSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 5:34UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 0:29CSU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:18CSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:20UTSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CSUDrive 1FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 3:1271% → 71%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+10
71.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 10 yds to the ColSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
71.4%
Michael Gallup run for 4 yds to the ColSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
71.4%
Faton Bauta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
71.4%
Faton Bauta pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+14
71.4%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 14 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
71.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+8
71.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
71.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 4 yds to the TexSA 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 23
0
71.4%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete, broken up by Baylen BakerSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 23
+3
71.4%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Marcus Wilson for 3 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+38
71.3%
Wyatt Bryan 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
14 plays · 61 yds · 6:0529% → 33%
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
71.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 40Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+6
71.1%
Jalen Rhodes run for 6 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+8
71.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 8 yds to the ColSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+8
70.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 8 yds to the ColSt 38Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 2
OPP 38
0
70.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+6
70.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 6 yds to the ColSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
70.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the ColSt 29Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-2
70.8%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the ColSt 31Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+19
71.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 19 yds to the ColSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:39
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
70.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the ColSt 8Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
70.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the ColSt 5Similar
Q1 11:39
3RD & 3
OPP 5
-5
70.9%
TEXASSAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ColSt 10Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 8
OPP 10
+10
67.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 10 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 3TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:0568% → 71%
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
68.1%
Detrich Clark run for 20 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
68.9%
DAWKINS, Dalyn rush for 11 yards to the UTSA44 (Egwuagu), PENALTY CSU illegal formation 5 yards to the CSU40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+14
68.3%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 14 yds to the TexSA 46Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+5
69.2%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 5 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
69.2%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+7
69.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 3
OPP 34
+7
69.0%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 7 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
69.5%
MATTHEWS, Izzy rush for 2 yards to the UTSA25 (Tauaefa;Baker), PENALTY CSU holding (GOLDITCH, Zack) 10 yards to the UTSA37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:34
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+4
68.7%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & 16
OPP 33
+24
68.9%
Faton Bauta run for 24 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
69.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q1 5:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
69.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 1 yd to the TexSA 4Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
69.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 3 yds to the TexSA 1Similar
Q1 0:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:2230% → 29%
Q1 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
70.3%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-4
70.4%
Dalton Sturm run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 24
0
71.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jalen Rhodes, broken up by Kevin DavisSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 24
0
71.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
70.6%
BAUTA, Faton pass incomplete to GALLUP, Michael, PENALTY UTSA pass interference (Henricks) 11 yards to the CSU47, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
71.3%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
71.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the ColSt 47Similar
Q2 14:11
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
70.3%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Marcus WilsonSimilar
Q2 14:11
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
69.7%
Hayden Hunt punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
70.7%
Jarveon Williams run for 7 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q2 13:13
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+1
70.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 16Similar
Q2 13:13
3RD & 2
OWN 16
0
70.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q2 13:13
4TH & 2
OWN 16
+6
71.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 49 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 6 yds to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 4 yds · 2:5471% → 68%
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
71.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ColSt 49Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+3
71.4%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the TexSA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:51
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
71.6%
Faton Bauta run for 4 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
71.6%
Anthony Hawkins run for 4 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-5
71.4%
COLORADO ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 11:51
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
71.3%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Marcus Wilson for 5 yds to the TexSA 40Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-15
69.6%
DAWKINS, Dalyn rush for 8 yards to the UTSA32 (McGhee), PENALTY CSU personal foul (NWOSU, Danny) 15 yards to the CSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:57
4TH & 17
OWN 45
0
67.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 49 yds, downed at the TexSA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0031% → 29%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
69.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+11
69.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 11 yds to the TexSA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
69.1%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 9
OWN 18
0
69.3%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 18Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 9
OWN 18
0
70.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 9
OWN 18
0
70.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the TexSA 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 9TD
9 plays · 49 yds · 3:0572% → 79%
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
71.5%
Detrich Clark run for 7 yds to the TexSA 42Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
71.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 4 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
71.6%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+7
71.4%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 7 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q2 6:23
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+4
71.2%
Faton Bauta run for 4 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
72.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the TexSA 20Similar
Q2 6:23
2ND & 3
OPP 20
+7
72.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the TexSA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
72.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 7 yds to the TexSA 6Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+6
79.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 10TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 2:5822% → 32%
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
78.1%
Sturm sacked for loss of 2 yards to the UTSA23 (SCHUPP, Johnny), PENALTY UTSA holding (Casillas) 10 yards to the UTSA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+10
78.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 10 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
78.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
78.4%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Marquez McNair) to the TexSA 24Similar
Q2 3:18
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+20
79.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 20 yds to the TexSA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:18
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
77.0%
Dalton Sturm run for 5 yds to the TexSA 49Similar
Q2 3:18
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+6
76.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 6 yds to the ColSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
77.7%
Sturm pass incomplete to Jones,B, PENALTY CSU holding (COLORITO, Evan) 10 yards to the CSU35, 1ST DOWN UTSA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-9
76.3%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Kevin Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the ColSt 44Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 19
OPP 44
+28
79.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 28 yds to the ColSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
67.6%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 64 yds · 0:1571% → 78%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
71.0%
Detrich Clark run for 9 yds to the ColSt 35Similar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+45
72.1%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 45 yds to the TexSA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
72.9%
BRYAN, Wyatt field goal attempt from 38 MISSED - wide left,, clock 00:00, PENALTY UTSA offside (Butler) 5 yards to the UTSA15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 5
OPP 15
+5
72.9%
BRYAN, Wyatt field goal attempt from 33 MISSED - wide left,, clock 00:00, PENALTY UTSA offside (Strong Jr.) 5 yards to the UTSA10, 1ST DOWN CSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+28
78.1%
Wyatt Bryan 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0028% → 26%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.4%
Jalen Rhodes run for no gain to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.6%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-8
72.9%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Jakob Buys for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
74.3%
Yannis Routsas punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Robert Ruiz at the ColSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 13 yds · 0:0077% → 74%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
76.9%
Anthony Hawkins run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 6
50
+2
77.0%
Dalyn Dawkins run for 2 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+8
76.3%
Faton Bauta pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 8 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-1
77.1%
Dalyn Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
0
76.9%
Dalyn Dawkins run for no gain to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 11
OPP 41
0
75.6%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 11
OPP 41
0
73.9%
Hayden Hunt punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14DOWNS
11 plays · 39 yds · 0:0027% → 29%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
72.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 21Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
72.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 25Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+9
73.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Marquez McNair for 9 yds to the TexSA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
72.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 2 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-5
71.8%
TEXASSAN Penalty, false start (Andrew King) to the TexSA 31Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+4
73.0%
Jalen Rhodes run for 4 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+17
73.5%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Brady Jones for 17 yds to the ColSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
69.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the ColSt 45Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+1
69.6%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the ColSt 44Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+4
70.0%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 4 yds to the ColSt 40Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 2
OPP 40
-1
71.3%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ColSt 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0077% → 73%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-15
76.8%
COLORADO ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Deshon Mayes) to the ColSt 26Similar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
75.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 27Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+3
74.8%
Izzy Matthews run for 3 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 6
OWN 30
0
74.2%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Elroy Masters Jr.Similar
Q3 10:03
4TH & 6
OWN 30
+11
73.1%
Hayden Hunt punt for 48 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for 11 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 37 yds · 2:5928% → 29%
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
71.7%
Jared Johnson run for 8 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 2
OWN 41
-3
69.5%
Peyton Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 38Similar
Q3 2:59
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+24
71.1%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 24 yds to the ColSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
68.7%
Jared Johnson run for 2 yds to the ColSt 36Similar
Q3 2:59
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+6
68.7%
Jared Johnson pass complete to Greg Campbell Jr. for 6 yds to the ColSt 30Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 30
0
68.1%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 30
0
70.6%
Jared Johnson pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr., broken up by Darnell ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 77%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
79.5%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Danny NwosuSimilar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
79.2%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Olabisi JohnsonSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 30
0
78.1%
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Marcus WilsonSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 10
OWN 30
0
77.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 52 yds, downed at the TexSA 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -12 yds · 0:0027% → 24%
Q4 14:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
72.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q4 14:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
73.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 4 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 14:23
3RD & 6
OWN 22
-16
74.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Justin Sweet and Kevin Davis for a loss of 16 yards to the TexSA 6Similar
Q4 14:23
4TH & 22
OWN 6
+12
76.0%
Yannis Routsas punt for 44 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for 12 yds to the ColSt 40 Robert Ruiz fumbled, forced by Marcos Curry, recovered by ColSt Izzy Matthews , return for no gain to the ColSt 6 COLORADO ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Justin Falls) to the ColSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0083% → 80%
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
83.0%
Collin Hill pass complete to Olabisi Johnson for 11 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
83.6%
Collin Hill run for 1 yd to the TexSA 48Similar
Q4 12:41
2ND & 9
OPP 48
0
83.5%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Michael GallupSimilar
Q4 12:41
3RD & 9
OPP 48
0
82.2%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Olabisi Johnson, broken up by Jordan MooreSimilar
Q4 12:41
4TH & 9
OPP 48
0
80.3%
Hayden Hunt punt for 33 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0025% → 22%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
75.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 4 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 19
-5
75.3%
Sturm pass complete to Stewart for 4 yards to the UTSA23, out-of-bounds (SWEET, Justin), PENALTY UTSA ineligible downfield on pass (Darragh) 5 yards to the UTSA14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:34
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+5
75.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 5 yds to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 11:34
3RD & 6
OWN 19
0
76.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 11:34
4TH & 6
OWN 19
0
77.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 57 yds, downed at the ColSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0084% → 82%
Q4 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
84.2%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the ColSt 25Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 9
OWN 25
0
84.0%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Marcus WilsonSimilar
Q4 9:59
3RD & 9
OWN 25
+2
83.0%
Izzy Matthews run for 2 yds to the ColSt 27Similar
Q4 9:59
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+3
82.0%
Hayden Hunt punt for 59 yds , JaBryce Taylor returns for 3 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0023% → 20%
Q4 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
76.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 5 yds to the TexSA 22Similar
Q4 8:32
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+1
76.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 23Similar
Q4 8:32
3RD & 4
OWN 23
-9
78.1%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Kevin Davis for a loss of 9 yards to the TexSA 13 Dalton Sturm fumbled, recovered by TexSA Juan Perez-Isidoro , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 8:32
4TH & 14
OWN 13
0
79.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 48 yds , Robert Ruiz returns for no gain to the ColSt 39 Robert Ruiz fumbled, recovered by ColSt Robert Ruiz , return for no gain to the ColSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 23FG
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:5088% → 93%
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
87.8%
Collin Hill pass incomplete to Detrich ClarkSimilar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
87.5%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 5 yds to the ColSt 44Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 5
OWN 44
+15
87.3%
Collin Hill pass complete to Elroy Masters Jr. for 15 yds to the TexSA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
88.6%
Faton Bauta run for 7 yds to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+4
88.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 4 yds to the TexSA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
88.8%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 6:14
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+2
88.6%
Marvin Kinsey Jr. run for 2 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+1
93.1%
Izzy Matthews run for 1 yd to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 2:24
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+46
93.1%
Wyatt Bryan 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 24INT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:415% → 4%
Q4 2:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-7
94.7%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Kevin Davis and Josh Watson for a loss of 7 yards to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 17
OWN 18
-11
94.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Evan Colorito for a loss of 11 yards to the TexSA 7Similar
Q4 1:43
3RD & 28
OWN 7
+21
96.7%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 21 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 1:43
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+2
96.5%
Dalton Sturm pass intercepted Braylin Scott return for 2 yds to the TexSA 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CSUDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
96.6%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 12
OPP 31
-2
96.5%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:20
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 16 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
-12.1
KEY PLAY · Q4 14:51
Faton Bauta pass incomplete to Danny Nwosu
+8.9
TD · Q2 3:18
Izzy Matthews run for 6 yds for a TD, (Wyatt Bryan KICK)
+7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com