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CP

Cal Poly 27 at Nevada 30

NEV
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 2, 2016 · Mackay Stadium
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Win probability · NEV
modelNEV aheadCP aheadconfidence bandkey playNEV scoreCP score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:43 · Alex Vega punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 47
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 85Pregame prior+24.3Home team on offense+9.2Score differential+3.4Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.8Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 15:00: Jared Mohamed run for 27 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST down — CP win probability +10.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 1:20: Dano Graves 1 Yd Run (Casey Sublette Kick) — CP win probability +36.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 1:20: CAL POLY Penalty, false start (Billy Shipman) to the Nevad 8 — CP win probability +2.4 pts (now 59%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  4. FG · OT 0:00: Dano Graves run for 8 yds to the Nevad 19 — CP win probability +29.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: CP has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: James Butler run for no gain to the CPoly 5 — NEV win probability +45.1 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NEV has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEV made the numbers' call on 5 of 6CP made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 7:46CP 4th & 8 at CP 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:27NEV 4th & 11 at NEV 19, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00CP 4th & 1 at NEV 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    9.8%−1.3
    27% to make
    Punt
    10.2%−0.9
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:28CP 4th & 9 at NEV 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.4%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−2.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:21NEV 4th & 1 at NEV 30, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.4%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:43CP 4th & 7 at CP 23, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−0.7
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00CP 4th & 7 at NEV 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    9.4%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    9.1%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:40NEV 4th & 13 at NEV 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.2%−1.3
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 9:26CP 4th & 18 at CP 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−1.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:15NEV 4th & 10 at NEV 22, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.0%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:26NEV 4th & 2 at CP 21, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    87.6%−1.2
    74% to make
    Punt
    80.1%−8.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:26CP 4th & 1 at NEV 42, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    10.5%−5.5
    30% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−5.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:26CP 4th & 1 at NEV 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    14.8%−1.9
    86% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−14.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 0:57NEV 4th & 7 at NEV 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−9.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEV made the numbers' call on 3 of 3CP made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:10NEV Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:13NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:52CP Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:49NEV Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 1:20CP Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−3.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEVDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:5091% → 90%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
90.6%
James Butler run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 24Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+10
90.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 10 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
90.6%
James Butler run for 7 yds to the Nevad 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
90.6%
Andrew Celis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
+10
90.6%
James Butler run for 10 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 1
50
+50
90.2%
James Butler run for 50 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 2FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
90.1%
Dano Graves run for 3 yds to the CPoly 32Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
90.1%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the CPoly 35Similar
Q1 12:05
3RD & 4
OWN 35
-8
90.1%
Dano Graves run for a loss of 8 yards to the CPoly 27 Dano Graves fumbled, recovered by Nevad Dameon BaberSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 3TD
4 plays · 27 yds · 1:4390% → 91%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+15
90.2%
Tyler Stewart run for 15 yds to the CPoly 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
90.2%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the CPoly 9Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
90.2%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the CPoly 6Similar
Q1 9:13
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
90.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 6 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 24 yds · 1:2210% → 10%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
90.5%
Dano Graves run for 2 yds to the CPoly 22Similar
Q1 9:08
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
90.5%
Dano Graves run for 6 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
Q1 9:08
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
90.5%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the CPoly 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
90.4%
Kori Garcia run for 10 yds to the CPoly 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
90.4%
Dano Graves pass incomplete to Kyle LewisSimilar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+2
90.4%
Kori Garcia run for 2 yds to the CPoly 44Similar
Q1 7:46
3RD & 8
OWN 44
0
90.4%
Dano Graves pass incomplete, broken up by Jaden SawyerSimilar
Q1 7:46
4TH & 8
OWN 44
0
90.5%
Alex Vega punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
90.7%
James Butler run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 17Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+1
90.7%
James Butler run for 1 yd to the Nevad 18Similar
Q1 6:27
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+1
90.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for 1 yd to the Nevad 19Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
90.5%
Alex Boy punt for 31 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 6TD
4 plays · 50 yds · 1:4010% → 12%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
50
+5
90.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 5 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q1 4:32
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+16
89.9%
Dano Graves pass complete to Kory Fox for 16 yds to the Nevad 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
89.7%
Dano Graves run for no gain to the Nevad 28 Dano Graves fumbled, forced by Dameon Baber, recovered by CPoly Dano GravesSimilar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+28
87.7%
Joe Protheroe run for 28 yds for a TD, (Casey Sublette KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0389% → 91%
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+46
88.7%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Victor Gonzalez for 46 yds to the CPoly 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-2
89.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to James Butler for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 31Similar
Q1 2:52
2ND & 12
OPP 31
+3
89.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
Q1 2:52
3RD & 9
OPP 28
+12
89.0%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jarred Gipson for 12 yds to the CPoly 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
89.2%
Akeel Lynch run for 7 yds to the CPoly 9Similar
Q1 0:49
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+9
90.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 9 yds for a TD, (Brent Zuzo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 8FG
20 plays · 70 yds · 7:159% → 11%
Q1 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
90.6%
Joe Protheroe run for 6 yds to the CPoly 26Similar
Q1 0:43
2ND & 4
OWN 26
-3
90.5%
Kori Garcia run for a loss of 3 yards to the CPoly 23Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+13
90.7%
Dano Graves pass complete to Carson McMurtrey for 13 yds to the CPoly 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
90.5%
Dano Graves run for 4 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
90.4%
Joe Protheroe run for no gain to the CPoly 45 Joe Protheroe fumbled, forced by Kendall Johnson, recovered by CPoly Joe ProtheroeSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+2
90.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the CPoly 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
90.3%
Kori Garcia run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 45Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+10
90.5%
Kori Garcia run for 10 yds to the Nevad 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+1
90.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 1 yd to the Nevad 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
90.2%
Dano Graves run for 2 yds to the Nevad 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
90.1%
Dano Graves run for 8 yds to the Nevad 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+10
89.8%
Dano Graves pass complete to Dj Peluso for 10 yds to the Nevad 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+13
89.8%
Dj Peluso run for 13 yds to the Nevad 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
89.8%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the Nevad 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
0
89.8%
Dano Graves pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:08
3RD & 6
OPP 7
-3
90.1%
Kori Garcia run for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 10Similar
Q2 8:28
4TH & 9
OPP 10
+27
89.4%
Casey Sublette 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 9PUNT
19 plays · 30 yds · 4:5590% → 89%
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
89.9%
James Butler run for a loss of 2 yards to the Nevad 19Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 12
OWN 19
0
89.8%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 12
OWN 19
+11
89.7%
Tyler Stewart run for 11 yds to the Nevad 30Similar
Q2 8:21
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+1
89.5%
Tyler Stewart run for 1 yd to the Nevad 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
90.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+20
89.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for 20 yds to the CPoly 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
90.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 3 yds to the CPoly 46Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+6
90.5%
James Butler run for 6 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
Q2 8:21
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+5
90.4%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the CPoly 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
90.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 8 yds to the CPoly 27Similar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+3
90.6%
Akeel Lynch run for 3 yds to the CPoly 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-15
90.6%
LYNCH, Akeel rush for loss of 1 yard to the CP25 (Chris Santini), PENALTY NEV illegal block 15 yards to the CP39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:21
1ST & 25
OPP 39
-10
90.4%
STEWART, Tyler pass complete to RICHARDSON, J. for 16 yards to the CP23 (Kitu Humphrey), PENALTY NEV holding (GOLTRY, Nathan) 10 yards to the CP49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 35
OPP 49
0
90.2%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Ahki Muhammad NEVADA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 35
OPP 49
+4
90.2%
Tyler Stewart run for 4 yds to the CPoly 45Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 31
OPP 45
-4
89.9%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jaxson Kincaide for a loss of 4 yards to the CPoly 49Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 35
OPP 49
0
89.4%
Alex Boy punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:1510% → 9%
Q2 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
90.2%
Dano Graves run for 2 yds to the CPoly 22Similar
Q2 1:58
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
90.3%
Dano Graves run for 4 yds to the CPoly 26Similar
Q2 1:58
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+2
90.4%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the CPoly 28Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 2
OWN 28
-5
90.4%
CAL POLY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CPoly 23Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 7
OWN 23
0
90.6%
Alex Vega punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Nevad 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 11FG
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:3591% → 92%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
91.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 26 yds to the CPoly 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+12
91.5%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the CPoly 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
91.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+7
91.3%
STEWART, Tyler pass incomplete to DEMPS, Wyatt, PENALTY CP personal foul (Kelly Shepard) 7 yards to the CP8, 1ST DOWN NEV, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
91.0%
Tyler Stewart pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
92.1%
Brent Zuzo 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
91.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the CPoly 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
91.3%
Dano Graves run for 11 yds to the CPoly 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
90.9%
Joe Protheroe run for a loss of 2 yards to the CPoly 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+6
91.3%
Joe Protheroe run for 6 yds to the CPoly 40Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+12
90.8%
Dano Graves pass complete to Carson McMurtrey for 12 yds to the Nevad 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
90.3%
Kyle Lewis run for 2 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 46
+11
90.3%
Joe Protheroe run for 11 yds to the Nevad 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.9%
Dano Graves pass incomplete to J.J. KoskiSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
89.9%
Dano Graves run for 3 yds to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
0
90.4%
Kori Garcia run for no gain to the Nevad 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 32
0
90.9%
Dano Graves pass incomplete to Carson McMurtreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
92.1%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
92.0%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the Nevad 35Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 7
OWN 35
-6
91.8%
Tyler Stewart sacked by B.J. Nard for a loss of 6 yards to the Nevad 29Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 13
OWN 29
0
91.2%
Alex Boy punt for 71 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 15PUNT
12 plays · 13 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
91.5%
CAL POLY Penalty, false start (Nick Enriquez) to the CPoly 15Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 15
OWN 15
-5
91.6%
CAL POLY Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CPoly 10Similar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+12
91.6%
Dano Graves run for 12 yds to the CPoly 22Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+5
91.6%
Dano Graves run for 5 yds to the CPoly 27Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+4
91.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the CPoly 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
91.1%
Dano Graves run for 4 yds to the CPoly 35Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+6
90.9%
Jared Mohamed run for 6 yds to the CPoly 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
90.8%
Jared Mohamed run for 3 yds to the CPoly 44Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+2
90.6%
Dano Graves run for 2 yds to the CPoly 46Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 5
OWN 46
-15
90.7%
CAL POLY Penalty, illegal block (-15 Yards) to the CPoly 31Similar
Q3 9:26
3RD & 20
OWN 31
+2
91.8%
Dano Graves run for 2 yds to the CPoly 33Similar
Q3 9:26
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
91.9%
Alex Vega punt for 45 yds, downed at the Nevad 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0094% → 93%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
93.5%
MUHAMMAD, Ahki rush for 5 yards to the NEV27 (Kevin Griffin), PENALTY NEV holding (BUTLER, James) 10 yards to the NEV12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 20
OWN 12
0
93.4%
Tyler Stewart pass incomplete to Jerico RichardsonSimilar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 20
OWN 12
+2
93.4%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the Nevad 14Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 18
OWN 14
+8
93.1%
Tyler Stewart run for 8 yds to the Nevad 22Similar
Q3 4:15
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
92.8%
Alex Boy punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kory Fox at the CPoly 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 17TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 2:378% → 19%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-15
92.0%
Joe Protheroe rush for 5 yards to the CP37 (JOSEPH, Jarid), PENALTY CP illegal block (Joey Kuperman) 15 yards to the CP17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 25
OWN 17
+4
92.7%
Dano Graves run for 4 yds to the CPoly 21Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 21
OWN 21
0
92.8%
Dano Graves pass incomplete to Kory FoxSimilar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 21
OWN 21
+30
92.9%
Dano Graves run for 30 yds to the Nevad 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
91.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the Nevad 46Similar
Q3 2:37
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+4
91.3%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the Nevad 42Similar
Q3 2:37
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+5
91.4%
Joe Protheroe run for 5 yds to the Nevad 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+27
80.8%
Jared Mohamed run for 27 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 18MISSED FG
11 plays · 54 yds · 4:1289% → 89%
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.5%
James Butler run for no gain to the Nevad 25Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
88.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Brandon Scott for 6 yds to the Nevad 31Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
88.1%
NEVADA Penalty, false start (Jeremy Macauley) to the Nevad 26Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+21
87.6%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Andrew Celis for 21 yds to the Nevad 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
89.8%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Wyatt Demps for 8 yds to the CPoly 45Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+16
90.0%
James Butler run for 16 yds to the CPoly 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:38
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
90.2%
James Butler run for 2 yds to the CPoly 27Similar
Q4 14:38
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+3
90.2%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Hasaan Henderson for 3 yds to the CPoly 24Similar
Q4 14:38
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+3
89.5%
James Butler run for 3 yds to the CPoly 21Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+38
89.1%
Brent Zuzo 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 19TD
21 plays · 79 yds · 9:0615% → 59%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+6
85.3%
Dano Graves run for 6 yds to the CPoly 27Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 4
OWN 27
+3
84.6%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the CPoly 30Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+3
84.9%
Joe Protheroe run for 3 yds to the CPoly 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-13
84.6%
DJ Peluso rush for 4 yards to the CP37 (RUFUS, Asauni;BERTRANDO, Alex), PENALTY CP illegal block (T. Whisenhunt) 13 yards to the CP20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 23
OWN 20
+14
85.5%
Kori Garcia run for 14 yds to the CPoly 34Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+7
84.7%
Dano Graves run for 7 yds to the CPoly 41Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 2
OWN 41
+8
83.4%
Joe Protheroe run for 8 yds to the CPoly 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
82.6%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the Nevad 47Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+4
82.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 4 yds to the Nevad 43Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+1
82.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 1 yd to the Nevad 42Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 1
OPP 42
+2
83.8%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the Nevad 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+19
82.2%
Kori Garcia run for 19 yds to the Nevad 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
80.2%
Dano Graves run for 2 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 8
OPP 19
-5
80.2%
CAL POLY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Nevad 24Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+11
81.6%
Dano Graves pass complete to Joe Protheroe for 11 yds to the Nevad 13Similar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+1
82.0%
Joe Protheroe run for 1 yd to the Nevad 12Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
83.2%
Joe Protheroe run for 2 yds to the Nevad 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
80.2%
Dano Graves run for 6 yds to the Nevad 1 Dano Graves fumbled, forced by Elijah Moody, recovered by CPoly Joey KupermanSimilar
Q4 10:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.2%
Joe Protheroe run for no gain to the Nevad 1Similar
Q4 1:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.3%
Dano Graves 1 Yd Run (Casey Sublette Kick)Similar
Q4 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
40.9%
CAL POLY Penalty, false start (Billy Shipman) to the Nevad 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:2358% → 55%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
57.8%
Tyler Stewart sacked by Josh Letuligasenoa for a loss of 3 yards to the Nevad 22Similar
Q4 1:03
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+5
58.2%
James Butler run for 5 yds to the Nevad 27Similar
Q4 0:57
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+1
56.7%
Tyler Stewart run for 1 yd to the Nevad 28Similar
Q4 0:57
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
55.1%
Alex Boy punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Kory Fox at the CPoly 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 21END OF GAME
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
47.6%
Dano Graves pass incomplete to Carson McMurtrey, broken up by EJ MuhammadSimilar
Q4 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+29
48.9%
Kori Garcia run for 29 yds to the Nevad 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CPDrive 22FG
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0060% → 89%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Dj Peluso run for no gain to the Nevad 26 Dj Peluso fumbled, forced by Asauni Rufus, recovered by CPolySimilar
OT 0:00
2ND & 11
OPP 26
-1
41.1%
Kori Garcia run for a loss of 1 yard to the Nevad 27Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+8
11.4%
Dano Graves run for 8 yds to the Nevad 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEVDrive 23TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 86%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
41.3%
Tyler Stewart pass complete to Jerico Richardson for 12 yds to the CPoly 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
41.3%
James Butler run for 8 yds to the CPoly 5Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 5
0
86.4%
James Butler run for no gain to the CPoly 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
James Butler run for no gain to the CPoly 5
+45.1
TD · Q4 1:20
Dano Graves 1 Yd Run (Casey Sublette Kick)
-36.9
FG · OT 0:00
Dano Graves run for 8 yds to the Nevad 19
-29.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com