Try the model
FRES

Fresno State 10 at Nebraska 43

NEB
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadFRES aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreFRES score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD+1.3NEB 99.8%Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds fora TD, (Z. Darlington Run For Two-pointConversion)AWAY 10 - HOME 36 · Q4 9:50
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 9:50 · Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Darlington Run For Two-point Conversion)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 136Pregame prior+12.8Home team on offense+34.5Score differential+20.3Garbage-time factor+12.5Blowout margin+12.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:38: Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 7 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK) — FRES win probability +3.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: FRES has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Kody Kroening 26 yd FG GOOD — FRES win probability +3.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: Scoring-chance index: 39%).
  3. TD · Q3 9:59: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +3.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:51: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 57 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +4.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:50: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Darlington Run For Two-point Conversion) — NEB win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00NEB 4th & 3 at NEB 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.2%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:53FRES 4th & 2 at NEB 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    4.1%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:08FRES 4th & 3 at NEB 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 5.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.6%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.6%−<0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.1%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00FRES 4th & 19 at FRES 18, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:29FRES 4th & 1 at FRES 31, down 14
    Close callPunted · 5.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.1%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:21NEB 4th & 17 at NEB 47, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.4%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:31NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:54FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 21, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.8%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:04NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 28, up 11
    Close callPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.2%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 5:23FRES 4th & 7 at NEB 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    8.0%−0.6
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:33NEB 4th & 14 at NEB 11, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%−1.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:51FRES 4th & 9 at FRES 26, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:28FRES 4th & 10 at NEB 33, down 26
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:23NEB 4th & 2 at FRES 34, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 6FRES made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 0:43NEB Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:34NEB Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:38FRES Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 9:59NEB Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:51NEB Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:50NEB Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:20NEB Touchdown, up 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NEBDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
97.1%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the Neb 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for no gain to the Neb 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
97.1%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 29 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 2MISSED FG
14 plays · 46 yds · 5:453% → 4%
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
96.8%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 9
OWN 40
+12
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds to the Neb 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
96.8%
Jamire Jordan run for 1 yd to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
96.8%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+6
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 6 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q1 12:53
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+3
96.8%
Dontel James run for 3 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
96.8%
KeeSean Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 38Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+8
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 8 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 3
OPP 30
+8
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 8 yds to the Neb 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
96.7%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (KeeSean Johnson) to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 12:53
1ST & 15
OPP 27
+2
96.8%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the Neb 25Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+10
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Chad Olsen for 10 yds to the Neb 15Similar
Q1 12:53
3RD & 3
OPP 15
0
96.8%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:08
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
95.6%
Kody Kroening 32 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 3TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 6:2596% → 95%
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
95.7%
Terrell Newby run for 7 yds to the Neb 27Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+10
95.7%
Alonzo Moore run for 10 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
95.7%
Terrell Newby run for 9 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+10
95.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
95.8%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 43Similar
Q1 7:08
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+5
95.8%
Terrell Newby run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 38Similar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 4
OPP 38
+11
95.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 11 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
95.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 22Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+7
95.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+12
95.0%
Terrell Newby run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
95.0%
Terrell Newby run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 2Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 1Similar
Q1 0:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:375% → 5%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
95.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for a loss of 3 yards to the FrsSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
94.9%
Chason Virgil pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 24
-6
95.0%
Chason Virgil sacked by Joshua Kalu for a loss of 6 yards to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 19
OWN 18
0
95.1%
Blake Cusick punt for 20 yds, downed at the FrsSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 5TD
4 plays · 38 yds · 1:2795% → 96%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
95.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 17 yds to the FrsSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
95.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 11 yds to the FrsSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
95.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 6Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 6 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
95.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 7 yds to the FrsSt 29Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
95.4%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 1
OWN 31
0
95.5%
Dontel James run for no gain to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 12:29
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
95.5%
Blake Cusick punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Neb 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:1296% → 96%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
95.7%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Neb 31Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+23
95.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 23 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-7
96.0%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 47 De'Mornay Pierson-El fumbled, recovered by Neb De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q2 9:21
2ND & 17
OWN 47
0
95.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo Moore, broken up by Tank KellySimilar
Q2 9:21
3RD & 17
OWN 47
0
95.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q2 9:21
4TH & 17
OWN 47
+15
95.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Robert Stanley blocked by Robert Stanley Robert Stanley return for 15 yds to the Neb 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 8TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:376% → 8%
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
94.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 2 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
94.5%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for no gain to the Neb 30Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+11
94.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 11 yds to the Neb 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
94.5%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the Neb 18Similar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
94.5%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+11
94.7%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 11 yds to the Neb 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
91.6%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 7 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
93.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 37Similar
Q2 5:31
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+3
93.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 2
OWN 40
-5
93.6%
Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Carter, Cethan for 14 yards to the FS46, PENALTY NEB illegal formation 5 yards to the NEB35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
93.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan Westerkamp, broken up by DeShawn PottsSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 7
OWN 35
+2
92.9%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 43 yds , Tyquwan Glass returns for 2 yds to the FrsSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 10FG
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:398% → 12%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
92.4%
Chason Virgil sacked by Ross Dzuris for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 23Similar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 11
OWN 23
-2
92.5%
Dontel James run for a loss of 2 yards to the FrsSt 21 FRESNO ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 13
OWN 21
+15
92.8%
VIRGIL, Chason pass incomplete to JORDAN, Jamire, QB hurry by Gifford, Luke, PENALTY NEB personal foul (Gifford, Luke) 15 yards to the FS36, 1ST DOWN FS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-10
92.0%
KLINE, Zach rush up middle for 2 yards to the FS38, PENALTY FS holding (MITCHELL, Aaron) 10 yards to the FS26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 20
OWN 26
+5
92.4%
Dontel James run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 31Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 15
OWN 31
+16
92.5%
Zach Kline pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 16 yds to the FrsSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
91.6%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for 8 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+11
91.2%
Zach Kline run for 11 yds to the Neb 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+25
91.0%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for 25 yds to the Neb 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
90.8%
Zach Kline pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the Neb 8Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
90.8%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
87.8%
Kody Kroening 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
89.3%
Dontel James run for 1 yd to the FrsSt 21Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
89.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 9
OWN 21
0
89.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron Peck, broken up by Chris JonesSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 9
OWN 21
0
90.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 36 yds, downed at the Neb 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 4:0390% → 94%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
90.0%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+6
90.1%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the FrsSt 48Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+7
90.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 7 yds to the FrsSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
90.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 39Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
90.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 8
OPP 39
+12
90.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 12 yds to the FrsSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+9
90.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 18Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 1
OPP 18
+9
90.6%
Jordan Westerkamp run for 9 yds to the FrsSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
93.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
93.0%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 11 yds to the FrsSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
92.8%
Dontel James run for 2 yds to the FrsSt 36Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 8
OWN 36
0
92.7%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 8
OWN 36
+9
93.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 9 yds to the FrsSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-1
92.5%
Chason Virgil run for a loss of 1 yard to the FrsSt 44Similar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 11
OWN 44
-11
92.7%
Chason Virgil sacked by Lamar Jackson for a loss of 11 yards to the FrsSt 33 FRESNO ST Penalty, intentional grounding (Chason Virgil) to the FrsSt 33Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
92.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q3 9:54
2ND & 22
OWN 33
+19
93.1%
Chason Virgil run for 19 yds to the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
93.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Neb 21Similar
Q3 7:04
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+7
93.0%
Terrell Newby run for 7 yds to the Neb 28Similar
Q3 7:04
3RD & 2
OWN 28
0
92.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Terrell NewbySimilar
Q3 7:04
4TH & 2
OWN 28
+21
92.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 36 yds, downed at the NEBRASKA 36 NEBRASKA Penalty, kick catching interference (Chris Weber) to the Neb 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 8%
Q3 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
91.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for no gain to the Neb 49Similar
Q3 5:23
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+6
91.3%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 6 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & 4
OPP 43
-3
91.2%
Chason Virgil sacked by Ross Dzuris for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 5:23
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
92.2%
Blake Cusick punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Jordan Westerkamp at the Neb 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
93.1%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 16Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 9
OWN 16
-6
93.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 20 NEBRASKA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Dylan Utter) to the Neb 10Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 15
OWN 10
+1
92.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Neb 11Similar
Q3 3:33
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
92.2%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tyquwan Glass at the Neb 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 17INT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:469% → 7%
Q3 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
91.1%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (David Patterson) to the FrsSt 47Similar
Q3 1:43
1ST & 15
OWN 47
+12
92.1%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 12 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 3
OPP 41
-5
90.8%
FRESNO ST Penalty, false start (Christian Cronk) to the Neb 46Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
91.1%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q3 0:57
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+8
92.6%
Chason Virgil pass intercepted Kieron Williams return for 8 yds to the Neb 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD
2 plays · 62 yds · 0:5694% → 98%
Q3 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+57
98.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 57 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.4%
Chason Virgil pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 1 yd to the FrsSt 26Similar
Q4 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Jamire JordanSimilar
Q4 14:51
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Delvon Hardaway, broken up by Joshua KaluSimilar
Q4 14:51
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Blake Cusick punt for 37 yds, downed at the Neb 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20TD
8 plays · 63 yds · 4:1798% → 100%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.4%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+5
98.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 46Similar
Q4 14:07
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+3
98.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 3 yds to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+5
98.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 5 yds to the FrsSt 46Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 5
OPP 46
+24
98.5%
Alonzo Moore run for 24 yds to the FrsSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
98.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 8 yds to the FrsSt 14Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+10
98.5%
Devine Ozigbo run for 10 yds to the FrsSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds for a TD, (Z. Darlington Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 1:140% → 0%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Dontel James run for 4 yds to the FrsSt 40Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+27
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 12 yds to the NEBRASKA 48 for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Joshua Kalu) to the Neb 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Chad OlsenSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
99.8%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to KeeSean JohnsonSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 10
OPP 33
0
99.9%
Chason Virgil pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
99.8%
Tre Bryant run for 13 yds to the Neb 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+12
99.8%
Tre Bryant run for 12 yds to the FrsSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
99.8%
Ryker Fyfe run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 37Similar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
99.8%
Tre Bryant run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 34Similar
Q4 8:23
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
99.8%
Ryker Fyfe pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q4 8:23
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+5
99.8%
Tre Bryant run for 5 yds to the FrsSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Ryker Fyfe pass incomplete to Sam CottonSimilar
Q4 8:23
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
99.8%
Mikale Wilbon run for 16 yds to the FrsSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
99.8%
Ryker Fyfe pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 6 yds to the FrsSt 7 for a 1ST down FRESNO ST Penalty, face mask (4 yards) (Dalen Jones) to the FrsSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
100.0%
Tre Bryant run for 3 yds for a TD, (Spencer Lindsay KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
FRESDrive 23INT
10 plays · 71 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
100.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for 3 yds to the FrsSt 28Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+18
100.0%
Zach Kline pass complete to KeeSean Johnson for 18 yds to the FrsSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
100.0%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to Aaron PeckSimilar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+10
100.0%
Zach Kline pass complete to Jamire Jordan for 10 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+32
100.0%
Zach Kline pass complete to Aaron Peck for 32 yds to the Neb 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
100.0%
Treyvon Green run for 3 yds to the Neb 9Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+5
100.0%
Zach Kline pass incomplete to Jamire Jordan, broken up by Aaron Williams for a 1ST down NEBRASKA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Aaron Williams) to the Neb 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Dejonte O'Neal run for no gain to the Neb 4Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
100.0%
Zach Kline pass intercepted, touchback. Chris Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:51
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 57 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+4.2
TD · Q3 9:59
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 9 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+3.3
TD · Q2 5:38
Chason Virgil pass complete to Aaron Peck for 7 yds for a TD, (Kody Kroening KICK)
-3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com