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ACU

Abilene Christian 21 at Air Force 37

AF
2016 · Week 1 · Sep 3, 2016 · Falcon Stadium
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Win probability · AF
modelAF aheadACU aheadconfidence bandkey playAF scoreACU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:04 · Steve Brosy punt for 47 yds , Justin Miller returns for 5 yds to the AblCh 15
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+49.5+24.80−24.8−49.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+48.7Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:25: Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for 8 yds for a TD, (Brendan Conn KICK) — ACU win probability +1.3 pts (now 4%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:06: Nate Romine pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 62 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK) — AF win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:10: Dallas Sealey pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 43 yds for a TD, (Brendan Conn KICK) — ACU win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:27: Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 17 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel PAT MISSED) — AF win probability +1.3 pts (now 100%) (top driver: AF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:14: Dallas Sealey pass complete to Tracy James for 76 yds for a TD, (Brendan Conn KICK) — ACU win probability +2.0 pts (now 3%) (top driver: ACU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ACU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 13:47ACU 4th & 13 at ACU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:04AF 4th & 11 at AF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:02ACU 4th & 12 at ACU 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:18ACU 4th & 3 at ACU 44, tied
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:35ACU 4th & 8 at AF 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    1.6%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00AF 4th & 4 at ACU 44, up 7
    Close callPunted · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.9%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:24ACU 4th & 11 at ACU 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.6%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:23ACU 4th & 4 at ACU 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:55ACU 4th & 2 at ACU 35, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:57AF 4th & 6 at AF 24, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:02AF 4th & 6 at ACU 48, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:18ACU 4th & 7 at ACU 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:31AF 4th & 10 at AF 34, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:03AF 4th & 6 at ACU 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    94.4%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:03ACU 4th & 1 at ACU 34, down 17
    Close callPunted · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.0%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 11:03AF 4th & 1 at AF 47, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    97.7%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
AF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ACU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:57AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:25ACU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:24AF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:23AF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:06AF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:10ACU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 5:27AF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    99.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 4:14ACU Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AFDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · 26 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
99.2%
Tyler Williams run for 10 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
99.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 8 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+8
99.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 8 yds to the AblCh 47 Jacobi Owens fumbled, forced by D.J. Arnold, recovered by AblCh Dylan DouglassSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
99.1%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 42Similar
Q1 13:47
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+2
99.1%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 44Similar
Q1 13:47
2ND & 13
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:47
3RD & 13
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:47
4TH & 13
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+24
99.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 24 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
99.1%
Nate Romine pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+6
99.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 4
50
-7
99.1%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 7 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 11
OWN 43
+5
99.1%
Steve Brosy punt for 47 yds , Justin Miller returns for 5 yds to the AblCh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:02
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-4
98.9%
Dallas Sealey sacked by Ryan Watson for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 11Similar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+2
98.9%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 13Similar
Q1 11:02
3RD & 12
OWN 13
0
98.9%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
4TH & 12
OWN 13
0
98.9%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 34 yds, downed at the AblCh 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
98.8%
Timothy McVey run for 10 yds to the AblCh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
98.8%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
Q1 9:40
2ND & 6
OPP 33
-3
98.8%
Nate Romine run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 37 Nate Romine fumbled, recovered by AblCh Temisan KuyatsemiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.7%
Adrian Duncan run for no gain to the AblCh 37Similar
Q1 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Trevor Crain for 4 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q1 8:18
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+3
98.7%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 3 yds to the AblCh 44Similar
Q1 8:18
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
98.7%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 7TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 1:3199% → 99%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+10
98.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 10 yds to the AFA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
98.5%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 32Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+6
98.5%
Shayne Davern run for 6 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
98.6%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ryan Reffitt for 62 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 8PUNT
12 plays · 30 yds · 1:222% → 2%
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.5%
Adrian Duncan run for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q1 4:57
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:57
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
98.6%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Trevor Crain for 8 yds to the AblCh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.5%
Adrian Duncan run for 3 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 7
OWN 41
-5
98.4%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the AblCh 36Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 12
OWN 36
+17
98.4%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Justin Miller for 17 yds to the AFA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
98.4%
Dallas Sealey run for 2 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 8
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Adrian Duncan run for no gain to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 8
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:35
4TH & 8
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Cody Ennis punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the AFA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 45 yds · 1:5498% → 98%
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
98.3%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Tyler Williams, broken up by R Griffin IiiSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 11
-5
98.3%
AIR FORCE Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 6Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 15
OWN 6
+33
98.3%
Parker Wilson run for 33 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
98.4%
Parker Wilson run for 6 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+5
98.4%
Parker Wilson run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:54
1ST & 10
50
0
98.4%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q1 1:54
2ND & 10
50
-3
98.4%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 47Similar
Q1 1:54
3RD & 13
OWN 47
+9
98.3%
Nate Romine run for 9 yds to the AblCh 44Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
98.1%
Steve Brosy punt for 29 yds, fair catch by D.J. Fuller at the AblCh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 10TD
14 plays · 85 yds · 4:272% → 4%
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
98.1%
De'Andre Brown run for 2 yds to the AblCh 17Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+11
98.1%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Hayes Linn) to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
98.1%
Tracy James run for 1 yd to the AblCh 29Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
98.1%
Tracy James run for 4 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
Q2 14:52
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+23
98.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Troy Grant for 23 yds to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the AFA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.9%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
98.0%
Justin Miller run for 11 yds to the AFA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
97.9%
AIR FORCE Penalty, roughing passer (Santo Coppola) to the AFA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
97.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 20Similar
Q2 14:52
2ND & 12
OPP 20
+9
97.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for 9 yds to the AFA 11Similar
Q2 10:52
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+3
97.3%
Tracy James run for 3 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.0%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for 8 yds for a TD, (Brendan Conn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 11TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:0197% → 97%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
96.7%
Tyler Williams run for 14 yds to the AFA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
96.8%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+15
96.9%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jabari Butler) to the AblCh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
96.9%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+4
96.9%
Nate Romine run for 4 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+33
97.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for 33 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.2%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-4
97.2%
Dallas Sealey sacked by Grant Ross for a loss of 4 yards to the AblCh 21Similar
Q2 8:24
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+3
97.3%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Justin Miller for 3 yds to the AblCh 24Similar
Q2 8:24
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
97.4%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 13TD
10 plays · 55 yds · 3:2497% → 98%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
97.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 46Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+5
97.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 5 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
Q2 6:47
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+5
97.2%
Tyler Williams run for 5 yds to the AblCh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
97.3%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AblCh 37Similar
Q2 6:47
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+5
97.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 5 yds to the AblCh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+11
97.3%
Nate Romine pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 11 yds to the AblCh 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+13
97.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 13 yds to the AblCh 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 0
OPP 8
+4
97.4%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, offside defense (4 Yards) to the AblCh 4Similar
Q2 6:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
97.3%
Shayne Davern run for 1 yd to the AblCh 3Similar
Q2 3:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
97.8%
Timothy McVey run for 3 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.6%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Justin MillerSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.6%
Justin Miller run for 6 yds to the AblCh 31Similar
Q2 3:23
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
97.6%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy GrantSimilar
Q2 3:23
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.6%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 59 yds, downed at the AFA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 15TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 1:5398% → 99%
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
97.6%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 14Similar
Q2 2:59
2ND & 6
OWN 14
+8
97.6%
Shayne Davern run for 8 yds to the AFA 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:59
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-11
97.6%
AIR FORCE Penalty, personal foul (Shayne Davern) to the AFA 11Similar
Q2 1:55
1ST & 21
OWN 11
+8
97.7%
Timothy McVey run for 8 yds to the AFA 19Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+4
97.6%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 23Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 9
OWN 23
+15
97.9%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Jabari Butler) to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
99.2%
Nate Romine pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 62 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 16END OF HALF
6 plays · 35 yds · 1:051% → 1%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.9%
Tracy James run for 1 yd to the AblCh 26Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+21
98.9%
Tracy James run for 21 yds to the AblCh 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
98.8%
Dallas Sealey pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+13
98.7%
Tracy James run for 13 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
98.8%
Adrian Duncan run for 3 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 30
+5
98.8%
Adrian Duncan run for 5 yds to the AblCh 35Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Adrian Duncan run for no gain to the AblCh 35Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 2
OWN 35
0
98.8%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 65 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
99.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 4 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 12:57
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+2
99.1%
Shayne Davern run for 2 yds to the AFA 26Similar
Q3 12:57
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
99.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 3 yds to the AFA 29Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 1
OWN 29
-5
99.0%
AIR FORCE Penalty, DL (-5 Yards) to the AFA 24Similar
Q3 12:57
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
99.0%
Steve Brosy punt for 19 yds, downed at the AFA 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 19TD
3 plays · 43 yds · 0:311% → 3%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
98.8%
Tracy James run for no gain to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
98.8%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Justin MillerSimilar
Q3 10:10
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+43
96.6%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 43 yds for a TD, (Brendan Conn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 31 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
97.2%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+27
97.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 27 yds to the AFA 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
97.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AblCh 49Similar
Q3 10:02
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+1
97.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AblCh 48Similar
Q3 10:02
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
97.2%
Nate Romine pass incomplete to Ryan ReffittSimilar
Q3 10:02
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
97.1%
Steve Brosy punt for 42 yds , Justin Miller returns for no gain to the AblCh 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+1
96.8%
Adrian Duncan run for 1 yd to the AblCh 7Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 9
OWN 7
0
96.9%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to D.J. FullerSimilar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 9
OWN 7
+16
96.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 16 yds to the AblCh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
96.7%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to D.J. FullerSimilar
Q3 8:18
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+3
96.7%
Adrian Duncan run for 3 yds to the AblCh 26Similar
Q3 8:18
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
96.8%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy GrantSimilar
Q3 8:18
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
96.8%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 40 yds, downed at the AFA 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
97.1%
Tyler Williams run for 3 yds to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 6:31
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
97.2%
D.J. Johnson run for no gain to the AFA 37Similar
Q3 6:31
3RD & 7
OWN 37
-3
97.0%
Nate Romine sacked by Gavin Burford for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 34Similar
Q3 6:31
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+6
96.8%
Steve Brosy punt for 44 yds , D.J. Fuller returns for 6 yds to the AblCh 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 23MISSED FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 3:264% → 4%
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
96.2%
Tracy James run for 1 yd to the AblCh 29Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
96.3%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Josh Fink for 4 yds to the AblCh 33Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 5
OWN 33
+15
96.3%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Vasquez Haynes for 15 yds to the AblCh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
95.9%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 12 yds to the AFA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-3
95.8%
Tracy James run for a loss of 3 yards to the AFA 43Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 13
OPP 43
+35
96.1%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 35 yds to the AFA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
95.3%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to D.J. Fuller, broken up by Jr. Haji DunnSimilar
Q3 4:45
2ND & 0
OPP 8
-5
95.0%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, false start (Austin Hisler) to the AFA 13Similar
Q3 4:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 13
0
95.5%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Justin Miller, broken up by Ryan WatsonSimilar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 0
OPP 13
-5
95.5%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the AFA 18Similar
Q3 4:45
3RD & 0
OPP 18
0
95.5%
Dallas Sealey pass incomplete to Troy GrantSimilar
Q3 1:19
4TH & 0
OPP 18
+35
95.8%
Brendan Conn 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 24FG
10 plays · 72 yds · 3:1697% → 98%
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
97.4%
Nate Romine run for 8 yds to the AFA 28Similar
Q3 1:19
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+3
97.5%
D.J. Johnson run for 3 yds to the AFA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+41
97.5%
Nate Romine pass complete to Tyler Williams for 41 yds to the AblCh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
97.6%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AblCh 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+7
97.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for 7 yds to the AblCh 19Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 19
+7
97.5%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the AblCh 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-3
97.6%
Shayne Davern run for a loss of 3 yards to the AblCh 15Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 15
+1
97.6%
Ronald Cleveland run for 1 yd to the AblCh 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 14
+6
97.5%
Nate Romine run for 6 yds to the AblCh 8Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 6
OPP 8
+26
98.1%
Luke Strebel 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
Justin Miller run for 5 yds to the AblCh 30Similar
Q4 13:03
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+4
97.8%
Adrian Duncan run for 4 yds to the AblCh 34Similar
Q4 13:03
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
97.8%
Adrian Duncan run for no gain to the AblCh 34Similar
Q4 13:03
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
97.9%
Austin Kilcullen punt for 45 yds, downed at the AFA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 26TD
15 plays · 79 yds · 5:3698% → 100%
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
98.1%
Shayne Davern run for 3 yds to the AFA 24Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+14
98.1%
Jacobi Owens run for 14 yds to the AFA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
98.2%
AIR FORCE Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the AFA 28Similar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+13
98.1%
Shayne Davern run for 13 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+4
98.2%
Shayne Davern run for 4 yds to the AFA 45Similar
Q4 11:03
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+2
98.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 2 yds to the AFA 47Similar
Q4 11:03
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+8
98.1%
Tyler Williams run for 8 yds to the AblCh 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AblCh 41Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+7
98.3%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AblCh 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:03
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
98.3%
Ronald Cleveland run for 7 yds to the AblCh 27Similar
Q4 11:03
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+7
98.3%
Shayne Davern run for 7 yds to the AblCh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
98.4%
Arion Worthman run for 2 yds to the AblCh 18Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+1
98.4%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AblCh 17Similar
Q4 5:27
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+17
99.7%
Arion Worthman pass complete to Jalen Robinette for 17 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ACUDrive 27TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:131% → 3%
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
99.5%
DeShun Qualls run for a loss of 2 yards to the AblCh 23Similar
Q4 5:27
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+1
99.5%
Tracy James run for 1 yd to the AblCh 24Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+76
97.5%
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Tracy James for 76 yds for a TD, (Brendan Conn KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AFDrive 28Uncategorized
8 plays · 24 yds · 2:3698% → 99%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.1%
ABIL CHRISTIAN Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the AFA 30Similar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+7
98.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 7 yds to the AFA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
98.1%
D.J. Johnson run for 4 yds to the AFA 41Similar
Q4 4:14
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+1
98.2%
D.J. Johnson run for 1 yd to the AFA 42Similar
Q4 4:14
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+7
98.2%
Jacobi Owens run for 7 yds to the AFA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
99.2%
Santo Coppola run for a loss of 2 yards to the AFA 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:10
Dallas Sealey pass complete to D.J. Fuller for 43 yds for a TD, (Brendan Conn KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q4 4:14
Dallas Sealey pass complete to Tracy James for 76 yds for a TD, (Brendan Conn KICK)
-2
TD · Q2 1:06
Nate Romine pass complete to Ronald Cleveland for 62 yds for a TD, (Luke Strebel KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com