2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · Sam Boyd Stadium
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Win probability · UNLV
modelUNLV aheadJKST aheadconfidence bandkey playUNLV scoreJKST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:44 · Christian Jacquemin 30 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 13:53: Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 56 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — JKST win probability +0.1 pts (now 1%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q1 8:55: LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Tevin Garrett for 11 yds for a TD, (Christian Jacquemin KICK) — JKST win probability +0.4 pts (now 2%) (top driver: JKST has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:11: Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +0.3 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:27: David Greene run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) — UNLV win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UNLV has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:47: Christian Jacquemin 27 yd FG GOOD — JKST win probability +0.2 pts (now 0%) (top driver: JKST has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UNLV made the numbers' call on 1 of 3JKST made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 13:04JKST 4th & 4 at UNLV 29, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.3%48% to convertField goal1.3%−<0.158% to makePunt1.0%−0.4average punt
- Q1 4:53JKST 4th & 3 at UNLV 36, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call1.9%53% to convertField goal1.8%−0.142% to makePunt1.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00JKST 4th & 12 at JKST 14, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q2 11:27JKST 4th & 10 at JKST 39, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 1:47JKST 4th & 9 at UNLV 10, down 35Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.6% before the snapGo for it0.5%−<0.126% to convertField goalTheir call0.5%88% to makePunt0.1%−0.4average punt
- Q3 15:00JKST 4th & 8 at JKST 27, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.4%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.5%average punt
- Q3 13:02UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 31, up 32Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snapGo for it99.7%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.6%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:33JKST 4th & 6 at JKST 28, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.3%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 7:23JKST 4th & 10 at JKST 2, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snapGo for it0.2%−0.225% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q4 11:44JKST 4th & 3 at UNLV 12, down 53Close callKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%50% to convertField goalTheir call0.0%−<0.186% to makePunt-0.3%−0.4average punt
- Q4 11:39UNLV 4th & 1 at UNLV 24, up 50Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.9%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 9:30JKST 4th & 13 at JKST 47, down 50Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it-0.0%−0.120% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:52UNLV 4th & 7 at JKST 40, up 50Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call100.0%37% to convertField goal99.9%−0.134% to makePunt99.9%−0.1average punt
- Q4 3:13JKST 4th & 1 at JKST 43, down 50Close callPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UNLV made the numbers' call on 8 of 8JKST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 13:53UNLV Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 13:04UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 8:55JKST Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call1.8%97% to makeGo for two1.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 7:44UNLV Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:11UNLV Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:27UNLV Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 8:16UNLV Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.6%97% to makeGo for two99.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:17UNLV Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:14UNLV Touchdown, up 52 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUNLVDrive 1TD4 plays · 69 yds · 1:0799% → 99%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
98.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 56 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 2INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
LaMontiez Ivy pass intercepted Troy Hawthorne return for no gain to the JckSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 3TD2 plays · 34 yds · 0:4399% → 99%
JKSTDrive 4TD17 plays · 75 yds · 4:091% → 2%
Q1 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
98.8%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Carle Ollie for 14 yds to the JckSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+5
98.7%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Joshua Bates for 5 yds to the UNLV 29Similar
Q1 13:04
4TH & 4
OPP 29
+14
98.8%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Benjy Parrish for 14 yds to the UNLV 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
98.7%
LaMontiez Ivy run for a loss of 3 yards to the UNLV 11 LaMontiez Ivy fumbled, forced by Troy Hawthorne,Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+25
98.8%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Carle Ollie for 25 yds to the UNLV 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
98.4%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Tevin Garrett for 11 yds for a TD, (Christian Jacquemin KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 5TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:0198% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 6DOWNS10 plays · 39 yds · 2:512% → 2%
UNLVDrive 7TD9 plays · 64 yds · 3:4998% → 99%
JKSTDrive 8PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:071% → 1%
UNLVDrive 9TD8 plays · 36 yds · 3:1099% → 99%
Q2 14:37
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+17
98.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 17 yds to the JckSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 10PUNT7 plays · 14 yds · 0:001% → 1%
UNLVDrive 11TD4 plays · 58 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
99.3%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Devonte Boyd for 30 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK) JACKSON ST Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 12FG20 plays · 73 yds · 6:210% → 0%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.7%
LaMontiez Ivy pass incomplete to Romello Shumake, broken up by Jeremiah ValoagaSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 13
OWN 14
+15
99.7%
LaMontiez Ivy pass incomplete to Joshua Bates (LAOLAGI, Bailey), PENALTY LV personal foul (VALOAGA, J.) 15 yards to the JACKST29, 1ST DOWN JACKST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 7
OWN 32
+7
99.7%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Joshua Bates for 7 yds to the JckSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 8
OPP 45
-1
99.6%
Robert Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 46 JACKSON ST Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+22
99.7%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Daniel Williams for 22 yds to the UNLV 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
99.6%
LaMontiez Ivy pass incomplete to DeSean McKenzie, broken up by Jay'Onn MylesSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+13
99.6%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Jairus Moll for 13 yds to the UNLV 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-1
99.7%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Robert Johnson for a loss of 1 yard to the UNLV 12Similar
Q2 3:07
3RD & 11
OPP 12
+2
99.8%
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Robert Johnson for 2 yds to the UNLV 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 13END OF HALF4 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
JKSTDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Jordan Williams pass complete to Daniel Williams for no gain to the JckSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
99.6%
Jordan Williams run for no gain to the JckSt 27 JACKSON ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 27
-7
99.6%
Christian Jacquemin punt for 44 yds , Brandon Presley returns for a loss of 7 yards to the UNLV 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 15PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 13:02
3RD & 12
OWN 20
+11
99.7%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to M Stevenson for 11 yds to the UNLV 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 16PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UNLVDrive 17FUMBLE8 plays · 68 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
JKSTDrive 18PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 7:23
3RD & 10
OWN 2
0
99.7%
LaMontiez Ivy pass incomplete to Daniel Williams, broken up by Dalton BakerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 19TD4 plays · 36 yds · 2:01100% → 100%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
99.8%
C Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the JckSt 44 C Williams fumbled, forced by Brandon Maiden, recovered by UNLV Johnny StantonSimilar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 5
OPP 31
+14
99.8%
Johnny Stanton pass complete to Brandon Presley for 14 yds to the JckSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 20FUMBLE TD3 plays · 3 yds · 0:480% → 0%
JKSTDrive 21INT TD4 plays · 15 yds · 1:150% → 0%
Q3 2:14
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+43
99.9%
Brent Lyles pass intercepted for a TD Torry McTyer return for 43 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 22FG17 plays · 63 yds · 5:300% → 0%
Q3 2:14
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 5 yds to the JckSt 30 for a 1ST down UNLV Penalty, personal foul (Robert Jackson) to the JckSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 5
50
-5
99.9%
Brent Lyles pass complete to Tevin Garrett for 6 yards to the LV44 (KEYES, Brian;JACKSON, Robert), PENALTY JACKST ineligible downfield on pass (Tevin Garrett) 5 yards to the JACKST45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+15
100.0%
Brent Lyles pass incomplete to Romello Shumake, PENALTY LV pass interference (JACKSON, Robert) 15 yards to the LV40, 1ST DOWN JACKST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
Brent Lyles pass complete to Miquel James for 5 yds to the UNLV 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Brent Lyles pass incomplete to Carle Ollie, broken up by Jericho FlowersSimilar
Q4 11:49
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+5
100.0%
Ch. Jacquemin field goal attempt from 35 MISSED - wide left,, clock 11:49, PENALTY LV roughing the kicker (MYLES, Jay'Onn) 5 yards to the LV12, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
JKSTDrive 24PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
UNLVDrive 25DOWNS9 plays · 60 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
JKSTDrive 26PUNT4 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:13
3RD & 6
OWN 38
+5
100.0%
Brent Lyles pass complete to Jevon Floyd for 5 yds to the JckSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UNLVDrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:27
David Greene run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
+0.5
TD · Q1 8:55
LaMontiez Ivy pass complete to Tevin Garrett for 11 yds for a TD, (Christian Jacquemin KICK)
-0.4
TD · Q1 0:11
Lexington Thomas run for 3 yds for a TD, (Evan Pantels KICK)
+0.3