2016 · Week 1 · Sep 1, 2016 · Maverik Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · USU
modelUSU aheadWEB aheadconfidence bandkey playUSU scoreWEB score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 5:19 · Jacob DeMaio punt for 46 yds, downed at the UthSt 11
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 2:10: Devante Mays run for 18 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +1.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 14:35: Devante Mays run for 66 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +2.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:26: Treshawn Garrett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob DeMaio intercepted ) — WEB win probability +4.6 pts (now 9%) (top driver: WEB has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:59: LaJuan Hunt run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +4.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 5:19: Brock Warren 31 yd FG GOOD — USU win probability +1.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3WEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00WEB 4th & 6 at WEB 13, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 9.0% before the snapGo for it9.0%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.1%average punt
- Q1 9:17WEB 4th & 10 at USU 35, down 7Close callPunted · 9.8% before the snapGo for it9.8%−<0.130% to convertField goal9.8%45% to makePuntTheir call9.8%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00WEB 4th & 21 at WEB 14, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.1% before the snapGo for it8.4%−1.08% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call9.4%average punt
- Q2 14:27WEB 4th & 2 at WEB 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.9% before the snapGo for it6.0%−<0.156% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.0%average punt
- Q2 9:51USU 4th & 5 at WEB 46, up 21Close callPunted · 95.2% before the snapGo for it95.2%41% to convertField goal94.7%−0.523% to makePuntTheir call95.2%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 3:40WEB 4th & 6 at USU 6, down 21Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.4%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call4.5%91% to makePunt2.1%−2.4average punt
- Q2 3:40USU 4th & 5 at USU 38, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.8%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call96.0%average punt
- Q3 5:19USU 4th & 14 at WEB 14, up 22Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.0%−0.516% to convertField goalTheir call97.5%84% to makePunt95.8%−1.7average punt
- Q3 5:19WEB 4th & 5 at WEB 43, down 25Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%−0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q4 13:07WEB 4th & 6 at USU 48, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 4:01WEB 4th & 13 at USU 49, down 39Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:41USU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.6%97% to makeGo for two90.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 2:10USU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call90.8%97% to makeGo for two90.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:35USU Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:59USU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.2%97% to makeGo for two97.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:07USU Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:50USU Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWEBDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+22
91.6%
Jacob DeMaio punt for 43 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 22 yds to the WebSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2TD2 plays · 34 yds · 0:3191% → 91%
WEBDrive 3PUNT15 plays · 40 yds · 3:249% → 9%
Q1 12:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
91.3%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 12 yds to the WebSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-7
91.3%
Jadrian Clark sacked by Brock Carmen for a loss of 7 yards to the WebSt 36Similar
Q1 12:41
4TH & 12
OWN 36
+15
91.3%
Demaio,Jacob punt 51 yards to the USU13, RODRIGUEZ, A. return to the USU37, out-of-bounds (May,Brady), PENALTY USU personal foul 15 yards to the USU49, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 5
OPP 44
+9
90.7%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 9 yds to the UthSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 18
OPP 43
+8
90.8%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Darryl Denby for 8 yds to the UthSt 35Similar
Q1 9:17
4TH & 10
OPP 35
0
90.9%
Taylor Hintze punt for 20 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4TD13 plays · 85 yds · 4:2391% → 92%
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
90.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 3 yds to the UthSt 18Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 7
OWN 18
-1
90.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 17Similar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 8
OWN 17
+10
90.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 10 yds to the UthSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
90.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Taron JohnsonSimilar
Q1 6:33
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+5
90.8%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 5 yds to the WebSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 5PUNT6 plays · -11 yds · 2:109% → 8%
Q1 2:10
3RD & 14
OWN 21
-7
91.7%
Jadrian Clark run for a loss of 7 yards to the WebSt 14 Jadrian Clark fumbled, forced by Travis Seefeldt, recovered by WebSt Jadrian ClarkSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 21
OWN 14
+6
91.7%
Jacob DeMaio punt for 53 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for 6 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6TD2 plays · 61 yds · 0:1192% → 94%
WEBDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q2 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
94.5%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Cameron Livingston for 6 yds to the WebSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT7 plays · 24 yds · 2:2795% → 96%
WEBDrive 9MISSED FG13 plays · 65 yds · 6:015% → 5%
Q2 9:41
3RD & 2
OPP 22
+18
94.7%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Cory Thomson for 18 yds to the UthSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 18 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 3:40
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+5
97.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Landon Horne for 5 yds to the UthSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 11TD10 plays · 60 yds · 1:514% → 9%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+10
96.0%
Treshawn Garrett run for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+12
95.7%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 12 yds to the UthSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
95.2%
Jadrian Clark sacked by Justus Te'i for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 26Similar
Q2 1:26
2ND & 16
OPP 26
+25
95.6%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Andrew Vollert for 25 yds to the UthSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
90.6%
Treshawn Garrett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob DeMaio intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13TD8 plays · 70 yds · 2:5193% → 98%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+24
93.0%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 24 yds to the WebSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 14INT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
USUDrive 15FG12 plays · 49 yds · 4:2998% → 99%
WEBDrive 16PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:002% → 2%
USUDrive 17TD13 plays · 89 yds · 5:1499% → 100%
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+9
99.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 9 yds to the WebSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Chad Artist for no gain to the WebSt 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
99.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt Houston, broken up by Legrand ToiaSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+11
99.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Zach Van Leeuwen for 11 yds to the WebSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 18PUNT11 plays · 27 yds · 0:000% → 0%
USUDrive 19TD1 play · 80 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WEBDrive 20PUNT12 plays · 26 yds · 3:490% → 0%
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
99.9%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Tui Satuala for 15 yds to the WebSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Drew Batchelor for 4 yds to the WebSt 48Similar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
UTAH ST Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+7
99.9%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Cameron Livingston for 7 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 3
OPP 39
-10
100.0%
Clark,Jadrian rush for 11 yards to the USU28 (TOGIAI, Ian;WILDMAN, Jacoby), PENALTY WSU holding 10 yards to the USU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 13
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Jadrian Clark pass complete to Drew Batchelor for no gain to the UthSt 49Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 13
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Jacob DeMaio punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Andrew Rodriguez at the UthSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 21END OF GAME4 plays · 10 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:26
Treshawn Garrett run for 1 yd for a TD, (Jacob DeMaio intercepted )
-4.6
TD · Q3 11:59
LaJuan Hunt run for 9 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
+4.5
TD · Q2 14:35
Devante Mays run for 66 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
+2.1