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ORE

Oregon 24 at Oregon State 34

ORST
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Nick Porebski punt for 46 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 40
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 87Home team on offense+0.4Pregame prior−3.7Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:51: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 6 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +8.9 pts (now 52%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:43: Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 23 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +12.9 pts (now 70%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 3:46: Ryan Nall run for 14 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +18.0 pts (now 50%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 9:40: Ryan Nall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +23.3 pts (now 74%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:56: Ryan Nall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens PAT MISSED) — ORST win probability +15.0 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.4%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:51ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:11ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.3%
    average punt
  4. Q2 0:37ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−1.6
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  5. Q3 15:00ORST 4th & 20 at ORST 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.7%−3.6
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.3%
    average punt
  6. Q3 11:37ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:44ORE 4th & 18 at ORST 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.9%−3.4
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.2%
    58% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−7.4
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:44ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 44, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−4.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.7%
    average punt
  9. Q4 9:40ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 1:56ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 29, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 1:00ORE 4th & 13 at ORST 31, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.2%
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    4.9%−0.4
    54% to make
    Punt
    4.9%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:19ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:51ORE Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:24ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:51ORST Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:43ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 3:46ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:40ORST Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:56ORST Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
42.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.5%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
42.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
42.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 29 yds , Andre Bodden returns for no gain to the OrgSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
10 plays · 61 yds · 4:1743% → 47%
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+9
43.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 1
OWN 48
+4
43.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 4 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
43.2%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+13
43.1%
Ryan Nall run for 13 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
43.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:36
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
43.2%
Paul Lucas run for 7 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 13:36
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+8
43.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 8 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
43.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 8 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+12
47.2%
Ryan Nall run for 12 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
46.8%
OREGON Penalty, personal foul (Elijah George) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:2854% → 56%
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
46.3%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
46.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 9 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
46.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for no gain to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+9
46.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 9 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 9:19
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+21
45.9%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Manase Hungalu) to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
45.5%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+8
45.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+12
45.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:19
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
45.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+3
43.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q1 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q1 5:51
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+1
45.0%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q1 5:51
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
44.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:51
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+9
44.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 9 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 5:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+3
44.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 46 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 3 yds to the Oregn 33 OREGON Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-2
45.3%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 12
OWN 15
+8
45.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 8 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 4
OWN 23
0
45.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles Nelson, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 4
OWN 23
0
46.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 31 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for no gain to the Oregn 47 Victor Bolden Jr. fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Andre BoddenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6FUMBLE
8 plays · 30 yds · 2:5847% → 48%
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
47.2%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+7
47.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 7 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+8
47.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 8 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 2:58
2ND & 2
OPP 28
+1
47.5%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 1
OPP 27
+3
47.0%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
48.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+4
48.9%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 20
+5
48.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 5 yds Victor Bolden Jr. fumbled, forced by Arrion Springs, recovered by Oregn Justin HollinsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 1:3754% → 62%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
46.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
45.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Treston Decoud) to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 47Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OWN 47
0
44.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+16
45.5%
Royce Freeman run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
44.3%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+33
37.9%
Jalen Brown pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 33 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 6:3340% → 52%
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
40.2%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
40.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 4 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+15
39.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 15 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+30
41.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 30 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
42.9%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+5
42.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 5 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 3
OPP 18
+6
42.1%
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
42.9%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q2 12:24
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+4
42.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 4 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q2 5:51
3RD & 4
OPP 6
+6
51.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 6 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9FUMBLE
7 plays · 68 yds · 0:0054% → 57%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
46.2%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Brown, Jalen, dropped pass, PENALTY OSU offside defense (Hughes-Murray) 5 yards to the ORE31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 5
OWN 31
+19
44.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
50
+4
43.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+34
43.8%
Royce Freeman run for 34 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
42.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+3
42.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 6 Tony Brooks-James fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Kendall HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 26 yds · 3:2750% → 50%
Q2 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+9
49.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 4:04
2ND & 1
OWN 15
0
49.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for no gain to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+3
49.9%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
51.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 4 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 6
OWN 22
+7
51.5%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
51.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:52
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+3
51.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 3 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 7
OWN 32
0
51.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q2 0:37
4TH & 7
OWN 32
0
50.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
46.8%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:0051% → 48%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.9%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
50.7%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-13
49.5%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by T.J. Daniel for a loss of 13 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+1
48.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 46 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 1 yd to the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
4 plays · 60 yds · 1:0355% → 70%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
45.5%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+20
44.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
43.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+23
30.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 23 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0036% → 33%
Q3 11:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
35.5%
Marcus McMaryion run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q3 11:37
2ND & 8
OWN 39
0
36.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Wayne Tei-KirbySimilar
Q3 11:37
3RD & 8
OWN 39
0
34.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q3 11:37
4TH & 8
OWN 39
0
33.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 2:5467% → 70%
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
33.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+22
32.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 22 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
30.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+7
30.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 7 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 8
OPP 42
0
30.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Mundt, broken up by Dwayne WilliamsSimilar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+21
30.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 21 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-8
29.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 14 OREGON Penalty, personal foul (Cameron Hunt) to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q3 10:38
2ND & 18
OPP 29
0
30.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q3 10:38
3RD & 18
OPP 29
0
31.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Mundt, broken up by Devin ChappellSimilar
Q3 7:44
4TH & 18
OPP 29
+46
29.9%
Aidan Schneider 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5827% → 45%
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
27.4%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+13
27.7%
Ryan Nall run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
29.0%
Marcus McMaryion run for 18 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
30.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 7:44
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+19
30.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 19 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
31.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 3 yds to the Oregn 14Similar
Q3 3:46
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+14
49.8%
Ryan Nall run for 14 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
Q3 3:46
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
44.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive offside (Andre Bodden) to the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 0:0062% → 57%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
38.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 8 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
37.6%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
37.3%
Justin Herbert sacked by Caleb Saulo for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 12
OWN 47
-10
38.4%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Brown, Jalen, PENALTY ORE holding (Hanson, Jake) 10 yards to the ORE37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 22
OWN 37
+5
40.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense (Elu Aydon) to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 17
OWN 42
0
39.7%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 42Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 17
OWN 42
+2
40.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 2 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
42.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 6:3243% → 74%
Q3 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
42.8%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
43.5%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+1
42.3%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
43.4%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+33
42.6%
Marcus McMaryion run for 33 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
48.4%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+10
48.3%
Ryan Nall run for 10 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
50.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+8
50.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+6
50.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 6 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 4
OPP 6
+6
74.1%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 32%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
65.3%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive holding (Cameron Hunt) to the Oregn 15Similar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+7
65.7%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
66.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 1 yd to the Oregn 23Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+6
67.7%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
68.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds, downed at the OrgSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
9 plays · 68 yds · 5:1776% → 95%
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
76.3%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
77.4%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
78.2%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 2
OPP 49
+5
79.3%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
79.4%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+12
79.4%
Ryan Nall run for 12 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
80.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q4 7:13
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+19
80.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 19 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.3%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 44 yds · 0:566% → 4%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
94.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
94.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles Nelson, broken up by Brandon ArnoldSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+26
94.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 26 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
92.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+17
92.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 17 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
91.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 10
OPP 28
-3
92.0%
Justin Herbert sacked by Elu Aydon for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 1:00
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
94.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles Nelson, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 13
OPP 31
0
95.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0596% → 96%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-3
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 0:36
2ND & 13
OWN 28
-3
95.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:40
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+23.3
TD · Q3 3:46
Ryan Nall run for 14 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+18
TD · Q4 1:56
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens PAT MISSED)
+15
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com