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UCLA

UCLA 10 at California 36

CAL
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 26, 2016 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreUCLA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGFGTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of GameFG-4.6CAL 83.8%JJ Molson 28 yd FG GOODAWAY 10 - HOME 26 · Q3 3:05
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:05 · JJ Molson 28 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+35.5+17.80−17.8−35.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 153Pregame prior−6.6Home team on offense+16.1Score differential+6.7Garbage-time factor+5.2Blowout margin+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:00: Matt Anderson 24 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +6.8 pts (now 65%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:00: Mike Fafaul pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 7 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +17.6 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 8:17: Malik McMorris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +15.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:07: Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +12.6 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 3:05: JJ Molson 28 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +4.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 12UCLA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:58CAL 4th & 3 at CAL 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.5%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:47UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:25CAL 4th & 8 at UCLA 41, tied
    Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    38.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:20UCLA 4th & 15 at UCLA 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.9%−0.4
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:00CAL 4th & 1 at UCLA 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    40.6%−0.7
    45% to make
    Punt
    40.4%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:37CAL 4th & 7 at UCLA 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 41.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:51UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−0.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.0%
    average punt
  8. Q1 0:13CAL 4th & 1 at UCLA 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    43.2%−1.2
    90% to make
    Punt
    40.1%−4.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:43CAL 4th & 8 at UCLA 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.4
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.6%
    90% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−3.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 12:48UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 40, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.9%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:42CAL 4th & 3 at UCLA 27, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.1%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    47.1%−4.6
    average punt
  12. Q2 6:26UCLA 4th & 17 at CAL 37, down 9
    Close callPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    41.7%
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 2:00CAL 4th & 6 at UCLA 6, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.0%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    91% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−7.2
    average punt
  14. Q2 1:20UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 28, down 12
    Close callPunted · 31.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q2 0:41CAL 4th & 4 at UCLA 49, up 12
    Close callPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.0%−0.4
    average punt
  16. Q3 14:03UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 23, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−2.0
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  17. Q3 12:36CAL 4th & 6 at UCLA 48, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 3:05UCLA 4th & 5 at CAL 11, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.6%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.8%
    87% to make
    Punt
    2.3%−7.5
    average punt
  19. Q4 12:26CAL 4th & 2 at UCLA 2, up 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    92.5%−1.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    88.0%−5.6
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:38UCLA 4th & 15 at UCLA 41, down 26
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.3%
    average punt
  21. Q4 5:55CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 37, up 26
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    99.6%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q3 11:00UCLA Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:17CAL Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:07CAL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 9:41CAL Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5629% → 30%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
29.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
29.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q1 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
29.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Randall GoforthSimilar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
29.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 55 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 9 yds to the UCLA 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0370% → 70%
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
29.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
29.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
30.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:47
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+3
30.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 40 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 23 yds · 2:1830% → 31%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
30.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Randall GoforthSimilar
Q1 12:39
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
30.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bug RiveraSimilar
Q1 12:32
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+5
30.3%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 12:16
3RD & 5
OWN 41
+5
30.6%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete to Austin, Jack, PENALTY UCLA offside (Dickerson, Matt) 5 yards to the CALIFORNIA46, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+11
30.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 11 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
31.0%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+2
31.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 2 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
31.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
31.3%
Davis Webb punt for 32 yds, downed at the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 28 yds · 1:5869% → 68%
Q1 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
31.4%
Nate Starks run for 1 yd to the UCLA 10Similar
Q1 9:51
2ND & 9
OWN 10
+15
31.6%
Nate Starks run for 15 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
31.7%
Nate Starks run for 17 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
31.4%
Brandon Stephens run for 2 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 9:02
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-7
31.5%
Mike Fafaul sacked by Cameron Saffle and Devante Downs for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 8:29
3RD & 15
OWN 37
0
32.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q1 8:20
4TH & 15
OWN 37
0
32.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:3432% → 36%
Q1 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
32.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 5 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 7:41
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
32.4%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 7:30
3RD & 3
OWN 22
+5
32.3%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Takkarist McKinley) to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+15
32.7%
Tre Watson run for 15 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
33.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 9 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q1 6:48
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+5
33.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 5 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:29
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
33.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 6 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q1 5:58
2ND & 4
OPP 38
+1
34.2%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 5:30
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+2
34.3%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
+6
34.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jack Austin for 6 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
35.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 6 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 4:14
2ND & 4
OPP 23
-3
35.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Duncan for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 3:41
3RD & 7
OPP 26
0
35.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 7
OPP 26
+43
35.8%
Matt Anderson 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3164% → 63%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
36.1%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 3:04
2ND & 7
OWN 16
0
36.3%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q1 2:59
3RD & 7
OWN 16
0
36.8%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 7
OWN 16
+1
37.2%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 1 yd to the Cal 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7FG
12 plays · 49 yds · 4:0237% → 42%
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
36.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 11 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
37.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 19 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+10
37.7%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete to Hansen, Chad, PENALTY UCLA holding (Fisher, Denzel) 10 yards to the UCLA17, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+2
37.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the UCLA 15Similar
Q1 1:28
2ND & 8
OPP 15
+5
38.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q1 0:39
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+2
38.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q1 0:13
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
37.7%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.2%
Tre Watson run for no gain to the UCLA 5Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
39.4%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q2 14:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-15
38.9%
Webb, Davis pass complete to Veasy, Jordan for 2 yards to the UCLA0, PENALTY CALIFORNIA pass interference (Hansen, Chad) 15 yards to the UCLA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 17
+9
38.3%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the UCLA 8Similar
Q2 13:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
42.0%
Matt Anderson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:4260% → 58%
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
40.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
40.4%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 12:56
3RD & 6
OWN 40
0
40.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q2 12:48
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
41.6%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:5643% → 48%
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
42.8%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 12:15
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+9
43.4%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+21
43.6%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Personal Foul (Takkarist McKinley) to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
45.4%
Bug Rivera run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q2 11:08
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+8
45.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 8 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
46.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q2 10:16
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
46.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 3 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 3
OPP 27
0
46.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Khalfani Muhammad, broken up by Keisean Lucier-SouthSimilar
Q2 9:42
4TH & 3
OPP 27
+44
47.7%
Matt Anderson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 28 yds · 3:0552% → 47%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
47.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Starks for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 9:08
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+22
48.2%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 22 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:44
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
47.3%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the Cal 38Similar
Q2 8:25
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+5
47.2%
Nate Starks run for 5 yds to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 8:05
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+3
47.9%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-10
47.6%
Fafaul, Mike pass complete to Howard, Theo for 22 yards to the CALIFORNIA8, PENALTY UCLA holding (Wariboko-Alali, Josh) 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:13
1ST & 20
OPP 40
+8
49.6%
Soso Jamabo run for 8 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 6:55
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-5
48.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Darren Andrews) to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 17
OPP 37
0
50.3%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 17
OPP 37
0
51.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Soso JamaboSimilar
Q2 6:26
4TH & 17
OPP 37
0
52.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 36 yds, downed at the Cal 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11FG
15 plays · 93 yds · 4:1352% → 65%
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+5
51.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 5
OWN 6
+13
51.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 13 yds to the Cal 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
52.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 5 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+7
53.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 7 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-13
53.8%
Davis Webb run for a loss of 13 yards to the Cal 18 Davis Webb fumbled, recovered by CalSimilar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 23
OWN 18
+5
53.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q2 3:52
3RD & 18
OWN 23
+26
53.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 26 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
56.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 11 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+21
57.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 21 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+7
58.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 7 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 2:29
2ND & 3
OPP 12
+6
58.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 6 yds to the UCLA 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 2:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
59.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton III, broken up by Marcus RiosSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
58.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q2 2:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
64.9%
Matt Anderson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:2837% → 38%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-7
62.6%
Mike Fafaul sacked by Tony Mekari for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 16
OWN 15
0
63.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Nate StarksSimilar
Q2 1:24
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+13
63.6%
Nate Starks run for 13 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 1:20
4TH & 3
OWN 28
0
62.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:3465% → 64%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
65.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 6 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 4
OPP 49
0
65.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 4
OPP 49
0
64.7%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:41
4TH & 4
OPP 49
0
64.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · 8 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
62.6%
Nate Starks run for 8 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:4436% → 34%
Q3 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
64.5%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q3 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
64.7%
Nate Starks run for no gain to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 14:14
3RD & 10
OWN 23
0
65.7%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q3 14:03
4TH & 10
OWN 23
-5
66.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 46 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for a loss of 5 yards to the Cal 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 26 yds · 1:1768% → 69%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
68.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+19
68.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 19 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
70.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q3 13:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+4
70.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 12:43
3RD & 6
OPP 48
0
70.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan DuncanSimilar
Q3 12:36
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
68.9%
Dylan Klumph punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 1:3133% → 53%
Q3 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
66.7%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+33
67.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 33 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
65.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 11:35
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+35
66.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 35 yds to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
64.5%
Jalen Starks run for 4 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q3 11:00
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
46.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 7 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3455% → 77%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
55.3%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q3 10:23
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+10
55.9%
Tre Watson run for 10 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
57.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Tre Watson for 7 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 9:24
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+2
59.0%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 9:16
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+2
58.4%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
50
0
59.9%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:40
2ND & 10
50
+16
59.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 16 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:23
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+33
61.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 33 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.7%
Malik McMorris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:0377% → 92%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-5
76.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 7:24
2ND & 15
OPP 37
+1
77.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 1 yd to the UCLA 36Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+10
77.4%
Webb, Davis pass pass intercepted by Meadors, Nate at the UCLA32, Meadors, Nate return 68 yards to the CALIFORNIA0, PENALTY UCLA holding (Meadors, Nate) 10 yards to the UCLA26, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+23
78.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 23 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
79.0%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
91.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20FG
11 plays · 56 yds · 2:4913% → 16%
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
87.0%
Mike Fafaul run for no gain to the UCLA 33Similar
Q3 5:20
2ND & 10
OWN 33
0
87.5%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 10
OWN 33
+30
88.2%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 30 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:54
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-1
87.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Theo Howard for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 38Similar
Q3 4:26
2ND & 11
OPP 38
+4
88.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+18
88.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 18 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
87.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 5 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q3 3:12
2ND & 5
OPP 11
0
87.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q3 3:08
3RD & 5
OPP 11
0
88.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren Andrews, broken up by Raymond DavisonSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+28
83.8%
JJ Molson 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21FG
16 plays · 48 yds · 5:2789% → 97%
Q3 2:53
1ST & 10
50
+10
89.2%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete, PENALTY UCLA holding (Meadors, Nate) 10 yards to the UCLA40, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q3 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
89.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
89.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q3 1:39
3RD & 4
OPP 34
+5
90.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 5 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
90.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 5 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & 5
OPP 24
-10
91.0%
Muhammad, Khalfani rush for 19 yards to the UCLA5, PENALTY CALIFORNIA holding (Ooms, Addison) 10 yards to the UCLA34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 0:23
2ND & 15
OPP 34
+2
91.0%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q4 14:52
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+14
91.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 14 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
91.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q4 13:49
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+4
92.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+5
92.4%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Offside (Boss Tagaloa) to the UCLA 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
92.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Adarius PickettSimilar
Q4 12:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
93.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 12:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
93.5%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Nate MeadorsSimilar
Q4 12:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+19
96.6%
Matt Anderson 19 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22INT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:335% → 5%
Q4 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.8%
Mike Fafaul run for 6 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 11:58
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
94.6%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:47
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+12
94.8%
Mike Fafaul pass intercepted Devante Downs return for 12 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 2:0197% → 99%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
97.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 9
OPP 31
0
97.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 10:24
3RD & 9
OPP 31
+29
97.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 29 yds to the UCLA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
97.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the UCLA 2Similar
Q4 9:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 1:580% → 0%
Q4 9:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
99.7%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 14 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
99.7%
Mike Fafaul run for 4 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+8
99.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 8 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-10
99.8%
Mike Fafaul sacked by James Looney for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 8:11
2ND & 20
OWN 36
+5
99.8%
Mike Fafaul run for 5 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 7:47
3RD & 15
OWN 41
0
99.8%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete, broken up by Devante DownsSimilar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 15
OWN 41
+3
99.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 34 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25END OF GAME
13 plays · 46 yds · 6:54100% → 100%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
99.6%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 6:49
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
99.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 6:16
3RD & 1
OWN 37
0
99.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 5:55
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+3
99.7%
Malik McMorris run for 3 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 6
OWN 44
-9
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 9 yards to the Cal 35 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Cal Davis WebbSimilar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+1
99.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 3:19
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+15
99.8%
Klumph, Dylan punt 44 yards to the UCLA20, fair catch by Adams, Ishmael, PENALTY UCLA roughing the kicker (Goodman, Tahaan) 15 yards to the UCLA49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q4 2:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
99.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 8
OPP 47
+5
99.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q4 1:45
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+7
99.9%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the UCLA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
99.9%
Ross Bowers run for 2 yds to the UCLA 33Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 8
OPP 33
+7
99.9%
Patrick Laird run for 7 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:00
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 7 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
-17.6
TD · Q3 8:17
Malik McMorris run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 6:07
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+12.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com