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ASU

Arizona State 35 at Arizona 56

ARIZ
2016 · Week 13 · Nov 25, 2016 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:21 · Jake Glatting punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense+0.2Pregame prior−12.8Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:07: Zach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick) — ARIZ win probability +18.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:34: Tim White 21 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick) — ASU win probability +14.7 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:14: Kalen Ballage 2 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick) — ASU win probability +15.2 pts (now 45%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:52: Samajie Grant 9 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick) — ARIZ win probability +15.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:29: N'Keal Harry 16 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick) — ASU win probability +16.4 pts (now 42%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 9:53ASU 4th & 13 at ARIZ 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−0.1
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.2%
    45% to make
    Punt
    60.1%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:21ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:14ASU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 46, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    59.3%−1.1
    23% to make
    Punt
    59.7%−0.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:53ARIZ 4th & 5 at ASU 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.4%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:48ASU 4th & 3 at ARIZ 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    49.8%−1.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    49.8%−1.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:06ASU 4th & 15 at ASU 20, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−2.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:54ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 47, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:53ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 48, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    16.1%−2.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:01ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 48, down 14
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:59ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 28, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.3 ptsPunted · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.9%−2.3
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:14ASU 4th & 1 at ARIZ 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−2.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    7.9%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:58ASU 4th & 6 at ARIZ 40, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    34% to make
    Punt
    0.8%−0.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:19ARIZ 4th & 4 at ASU 35, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    99.3%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:00ASU 4th & 10 at ARIZ 47, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 13:48ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    36.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    36.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:49ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 14:18ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:08ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 7:07ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:34ASU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:14ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:52ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:29ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:41ARIZ Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 11:45ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 8:29ASU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.6%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 7:45ARIZ Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:5735% → 36%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
35.1%
Samajie Grant run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 14:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
35.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the Ariz 29Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+71
35.8%
Brandon Dawkins 71 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
Q1 13:48
3RD & 6
OWN 35
-15
35.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 25 yds · 3:3764% → 61%
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-2
36.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 13:10
2ND & 12
OWN 38
+2
36.3%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 12:44
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+11
36.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 11 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
36.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:33
2ND & 11
50
0
37.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 11:10
2ND & 10
50
+18
37.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 18 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-10
37.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (A.J. McCollum) to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 10:50
1ST & 20
OPP 42
+2
37.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 18
OPP 40
0
37.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 18
OPP 40
+5
38.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q1 9:53
4TH & 13
OPP 35
+53
38.9%
Zane Gonzalez 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3FUMBLE RETURN TD
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:3740% → 38%
Q1 9:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
39.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 4 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 8:55
2ND & 5
OWN 40
0
40.1%
Samajie Grant run for no gain to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+6
40.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 6 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
40.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:01
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
40.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:49
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-42
37.8%
Koron Crump 42 Yd Fumble Return (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 2:0738% → 38%
Q1 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
37.7%
Samajie Grant run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
38.2%
Samajie Grant run for 6 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
38.6%
Zach Green run for 1 yd to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 5:55
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+4
38.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 5
OWN 45
0
39.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 5:21
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
38.4%
Jake Glatting punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5662% → 62%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
38.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 6 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 4:55
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+3
37.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 3 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+2
37.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
37.8%
N'Keal Harry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+4
38.1%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+5
38.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 3:14
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
38.5%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the Ariz 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:0141% → 40%
Q1 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
40.7%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 2:33
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
40.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 49 Brandon Dawkins fumbled, forced by DJ Calhoun, recovered by Ariz Freddie TagaloaSimilar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
40.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:53
4TH & 5
OPP 49
0
40.2%
Jake Glatting punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Tim White at the ArzSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:3161% → 61%
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-9
39.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 1 yd to the ArzSt 20 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q1 1:30
1ST & 19
OWN 10
+15
39.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.3%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted DaVonte' Neal return for no gain to the Ariz 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8TD
8 plays · 67 yds · 1:4542% → 48%
Q1 1:03
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
42.2%
Shun Brown run for 30 yds to the ARIZONA 37 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
41.9%
Samajie Grant run for 15 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
42.4%
Zach Green run for no gain to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q1 0:03
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+15
42.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
42.8%
Samajie Grant run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+4
42.9%
Zach Green run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
47.5%
Brandon Dawkins 10 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9DOWNS
10 plays · 44 yds · 3:1554% → 53%
Q2 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
46.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 13:33
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+5
46.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 12:45
3RD & 3
OWN 26
+8
47.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 8 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:36
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+8
46.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 8 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 12:27
2ND & 2
OWN 42
+14
45.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 14 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-6
45.1%
Tim White run for a loss of 6 yards to the 50 yard line Tim White fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Tim White , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 16
50
+7
47.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 7 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+6
46.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 3
OPP 37
0
47.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
2 plays · 63 yds · 0:2149% → 59%
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
49.2%
Samajie Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 10:08
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+64
59.0%
Nate Phillips 64 Yd pass from Brandon Dawkins (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11FUMBLE
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:3743% → 42%
Q2 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
56.7%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+7
57.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12TD
5 plays · 23 yds · 1:0361% → 80%
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
61.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Josh Kern for 9 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+3
61.8%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
62.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q2 7:15
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+2
61.6%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Personal Foul (DJ Calhoun) to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
79.9%
Zach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 1:0125% → 23%
Q2 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
75.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Kody Kohl) to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 15
OWN 20
0
75.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
75.8%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 6:35
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
76.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 14 yds to the ArzSt 34 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Brandon Mathews) to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 6:06
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
76.6%
Matt Haack punt for 30 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:4683% → 82%
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
50
0
83.0%
Samajie Grant run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 5:30
2ND & 10
50
0
83.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:07
3RD & 10
50
-3
83.0%
Samajie Grant run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 4:54
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
81.5%
Jake Glatting punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
15 plays · 94 yds · 4:1122% → 34%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+11
78.4%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
79.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 7 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+5
78.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+10
79.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 10 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
79.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
79.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kyle Williams for 5 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 1
OWN 48
0
80.2%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q2 1:53
4TH & 1
OWN 48
+9
81.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 9 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
80.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the Ariz 42Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+3
80.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 0:58
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+11
81.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 11 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
80.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 7 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+21
66.4%
Tim White 21 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.2%
Samajie Grant run for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 3:2629% → 45%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
70.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 14:12
2ND & 2
OWN 43
-2
70.0%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+12
71.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 12 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-5
70.1%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, False Start (Stephon McCray) to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 13:11
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+4
72.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q3 12:44
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+26
71.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 26 yds to the Ariz 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
69.5%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the Ariz 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
70.2%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q3 11:52
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+7
70.4%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
70.7%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q3 11:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
55.4%
Kalen Ballage 2 Yd Run (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5463% → 80%
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
62.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 10 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+56
63.7%
Zach Green run for 56 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
79.6%
Samajie Grant 9 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 79 yds · 2:0423% → 42%
Q3 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+16
76.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 16 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
75.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+6
76.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 6 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 8:44
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+5
75.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
75.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+33
76.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 33 yds to the Ariz 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
74.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 3 yds to the Ariz 16Similar
Q3 7:29
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+16
57.7%
N'Keal Harry 16 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20TD
6 plays · 83 yds · 1:2269% → 84%
Q3 7:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+52
68.9%
Samajie Grant run for 52 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+26
72.5%
Zach Green run for 26 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
72.7%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q3 6:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
72.8%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 5:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.4%
Zach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
7 plays · 23 yds · 2:3420% → 17%
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
80.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
79.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
80.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 4:02
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+5
81.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds to the ArzSt 49Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-1
81.4%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 3:01
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
82.7%
Matt Haack punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3888% → 90%
Q3 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
88.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 5 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+4
88.7%
Samajie Grant run for 4 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 1:24
3RD & 1
OWN 28
0
89.5%
Zach Green run for no gain to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 0:59
4TH & 1
OWN 28
+7
90.1%
Jake Glatting punt for 48 yds , Tim White returns for 7 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 39 yds · 2:1913% → 10%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
87.4%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
89.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+12
89.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (12 Yards) to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
89.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+15
89.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:37
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
89.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+9
89.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 9 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 14:08
3RD & 1
OPP 30
0
89.0%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 13:14
4TH & 1
OPP 30
0
89.7%
Kalen Ballage pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:5593% → 99%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+68
92.9%
Brandon Dawkins run for 68 yds to the ArzSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
94.1%
Zach Green run for no gain to the ArzSt 2Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:422% → 7%
Q4 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
98.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 1 yd to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 10:46
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+6
98.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 10:06
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+3
98.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
98.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+8
98.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 8 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+22
98.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 22 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+22
98.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 15 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, Roughing Passer (7 Yards) to the Ariz 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
92.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 7 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26TD
3 plays · 73 yds · 0:1595% → 99%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+10
95.3%
Zach Green run for 10 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
99.0%
Samajie Grant run for 63 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27DOWNS
9 plays · 38 yds · 2:411% → 1%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
98.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 3 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+6
99.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q4 6:24
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+10
99.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 10 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+15
99.1%
ARIZONA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
99.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+2
99.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 2 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q4 5:11
3RD & 8
OPP 42
+2
99.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
99.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28DOWNS
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:1999% → 100%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+19
99.4%
Zach Green run for 19 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
99.4%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & 7
OPP 38
+1
99.5%
Samajie Grant run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+2
99.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 4
OPP 35
-4
99.7%
Samajie Grant run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29DOWNS
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:071% → 1%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
99.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 2 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 41
-1
99.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 9
OWN 40
+13
99.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 13 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
99.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q4 1:11
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 1:05
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:00
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
99.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 30END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:25100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 0:20
2ND & 12
OWN 45
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:07
Zach Green 1 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)
+18.3
TD · Q3 7:29
N'Keal Harry 16 Yd pass from Manny Wilkins (Zane Gonzalez Kick)
-16.4
TD · Q3 9:52
Samajie Grant 9 Yd Run (Josh Pollack Kick)
+15.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com