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Oregon 30 at Utah 28

UTAH
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG-1.2UTAH 72.7%Aidan Schneider 47 yd FG GOODAWAY 3 - HOME 7 · Q1 5:26
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 5:26 · Aidan Schneider 47 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+20.1Home team on offense+0.2Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 10:37: Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +29.9 pts (now 65%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:43: Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 53 yds , Dillon Mitchell fumbled, recovered by Utah Chase Hansen for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +29.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:41: Justin Herbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +35.2 pts (now 71%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 2:18: Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 30 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +48.3 pts (now 90%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:02: Darren Carrington II 17 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ORE win probability +70.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 7ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:16ORE 4th & 3 at UTAH 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    23.7%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 5:26ORE 4th & 7 at UTAH 30, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.3%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.3%
    56% to make
    Punt
    23.1%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:58UTAH 4th & 1 at ORE 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    74.3%−0.7
    62% to make
    Punt
    72.7%−2.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:41ORE 4th & 10 at UTAH 39, down 4
    Close callPunted · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    25.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:33UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 36, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.8%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:45ORE 4th & 8 at UTAH 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 27.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    26.9%−0.3
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:05ORE 4th & 4 at UTAH 40, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    27.7%−0.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:00ORE 4th & 5 at UTAH 14, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.9%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    84% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−4.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:24UTAH 4th & 10 at ORE 40, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.2%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    70.9%−0.3
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.2%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:45ORE 4th & 6 at ORE 6, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.6%−0.8
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:13ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.5%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:14UTAH 4th & 6 at ORE 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 2:09ORE 4th & 20 at ORE 35, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.7%−1.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:34UTAH 4th & 11 at UTAH 19, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:45UTAH 4th & 9 at UTAH 26, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−3.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:43UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 32, down 3
    Close callPunted · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.2%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ORE made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 10:51UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 8:12UTAH Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 0:27ORE Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:37ORE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−1.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 6:41ORE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.1%−2.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:18UTAH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.0%−1.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:02ORE Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    77.2%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:3726% → 27%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
73.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Evan Baylis for 10 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
73.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 21 yds to the Utah 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
73.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Utah 44Similar
Q1 13:52
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
73.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q1 13:40
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
73.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 7 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q1 13:16
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+2
73.4%
Justin Herbert run for 2 yds to the Utah 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:1974% → 75%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
73.5%
Joe Williams run for no gain to the Utah 35Similar
Q1 12:45
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+16
73.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 16 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
73.5%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tim PatrickSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+20
73.4%
Joe Williams run for 20 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
73.5%
Troy Williams run for 5 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+24
74.6%
Cory Butler-Byrd 24 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3FG
15 plays · 62 yds · 5:0926% → 27%
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
74.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 8Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+3
74.2%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the Oregn 11Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+10
74.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 10 yds to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
74.3%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 8:40
2ND & 5
OWN 26
-5
74.2%
Justin Herbert sacked by Hunter Dimick for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+20
74.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 20 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
74.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 8 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+5
73.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 5 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
73.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q1 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+11
73.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 11 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
73.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 5
OPP 28
-2
73.4%
Justin Herbert sacked by Hunter Dimick for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 30Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 7
OPP 30
0
73.9%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 7
OPP 30
+47
72.7%
Aidan Schneider 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:2273% → 73%
Q1 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
72.8%
Joe Williams run for 13 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
73.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 11 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+7
73.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tyler Cooperwood for 7 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 3:50
2ND & 3
OPP 44
+8
73.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Joe Williams for 8 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
73.6%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+7
73.6%
Zack Moss run for 7 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 2:30
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
73.1%
Zack Moss run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 1:58
4TH & 1
OPP 27
-1
72.6%
Joe Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:0928% → 28%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+6
72.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 6 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 1:35
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+14
71.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jacob Breeland for 14 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
71.0%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+14
71.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 14 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
70.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Utah 39Similar
Q2 14:54
2ND & 10
OPP 39
0
70.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q2 14:48
3RD & 10
OPP 39
0
71.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jacob BreelandSimilar
Q2 14:41
4TH & 10
OPP 39
0
71.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:0272% → 71%
Q2 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
71.9%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 7
OWN 23
0
71.8%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:56
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+10
71.2%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 10 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
71.9%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 7
OWN 36
-10
72.4%
Troy Williams sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 10 yards to the Utah 26Similar
Q2 12:10
3RD & 17
OWN 26
+10
70.8%
Troy Williams pass complete to Harrison Handley for 10 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 7
OWN 36
-2
70.7%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 44 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
13 plays · 44 yds · 3:4829% → 28%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
71.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Evan Baylis) to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+16
71.6%
Royce Freeman run for 16 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
71.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 2 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q2 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+15
71.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 15 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
69.9%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Shane Lemieux) to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 10:20
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+7
70.9%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+12
69.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Evan Baylis for 12 yds to the Utah 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
69.2%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q2 9:10
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+5
69.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 5 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q2 8:40
3RD & 3
OPP 33
-8
68.8%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the Utah 26 OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (Charles Nelson) to the Utah 41. Charles Nelson disqualified for targeting. Similar
Q2 8:10
3RD & 11
OPP 41
+3
70.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 3 yds to the Utah 38Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 8
OPP 38
0
72.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Utah 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8FUMBLE
8 plays · 82 yds · 3:5273% → 75%
Q2 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
72.5%
Joe Williams run for 6 yds to the Utah 9Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+2
72.3%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the Utah 11Similar
Q2 6:36
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+20
71.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Joe Williams for 20 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+12
72.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 12 yds to the Utah 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
73.9%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q2 5:10
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+10
74.0%
Troy Williams run for 10 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+29
74.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Harrison Handley for 29 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-11
75.1%
Troy Williams run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26 Troy Williams fumbled, forced by Jimmie Swain, recovered by Oregn Wayne Tei-Kirby UTAH Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9MISSED FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 2:3028% → 29%
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+28
72.5%
Royce Freeman run for 28 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
70.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Utah 46Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
69.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q2 2:22
3RD & 10
OPP 46
+6
71.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 6 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q2 2:05
4TH & 4
OPP 40
+21
71.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 21 yds to the Utah 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
68.3%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Utah 16Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+5
68.2%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the Utah 11Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 2
OPP 11
-3
69.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 14Similar
Q2 1:00
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
70.8%
Aidan Schneider 31 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:5272% → 73%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
72.3%
Troy Williams pass complete to Harrison Handley for 9 yds to the Utah 29Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+8
73.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Cory Butler-Byrd for 8 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
73.0%
Troy Williams pass complete to Joe Williams for 9 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q2 0:16
2ND & 1
OWN 46
-10
73.9%
UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nick Nowakowski) to the Utah 36Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+9
72.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Cory Butler-Byrd for 9 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 3:3172% → 70%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
71.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 11 yds to the Utah 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
72.2%
Joe Williams run for 13 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
73.4%
Joe Williams run for 4 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 13:20
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+7
73.8%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 7 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
73.7%
Joe Williams run for no gain to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
73.3%
Troy Williams run for no gain to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 10
OPP 40
0
72.3%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tim PatrickSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
70.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 38 yds, downed at the Oregn 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3029% → 26%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+4
71.0%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q3 10:56
2ND & 6
OWN 6
0
72.7%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:52
3RD & 6
OWN 6
0
73.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q3 10:45
4TH & 6
OWN 6
0
74.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:2576% → 85%
Q3 10:37
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
75.8%
Joe Williams run for 4 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+10
75.9%
Joe Williams run for 10 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-4
76.6%
Troy McCormick run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 14
OPP 34
+22
75.3%
Troy Williams run for 22 yds to the Oregn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:12
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
84.6%
Joe Williams 12 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5218% → 17%
Q3 8:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
82.4%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
82.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 4 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
82.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
83.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Boobie Hobbs at the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 32 yds · 1:5183% → 84%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+28
83.1%
Joe Williams run for 28 yds to the Utah 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
84.8%
Joe Williams run for 1 yd to the Utah 49Similar
Q3 5:52
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
84.8%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tim PatrickSimilar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+3
84.2%
Troy Williams run for 3 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 5:14
4TH & 6
OPP 48
0
83.8%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 25 yds · 2:5317% → 13%
Q3 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+22
83.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 22 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
83.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 11
OWN 31
+5
84.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 3:38
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+9
84.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 9 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
83.3%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-10
83.8%
Justin Herbert sacked by Lowell Lotulelei for a loss of 10 yards to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 2:18
3RD & 20
OWN 35
0
86.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q3 2:09
4TH & 20
OWN 35
0
87.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 45 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for no gain to the Utah 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:2686% → 85%
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
86.0%
Joe Williams run for no gain to the Utah 20Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
86.0%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Cory Butler-ByrdSimilar
Q3 1:15
3RD & 10
OWN 20
-1
85.2%
Troy Williams sacked by Justin Hollins for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 19Similar
Q3 0:34
4TH & 11
OWN 19
+45
85.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 55 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 45 yds to the Utah 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18TD
2 plays · 29 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
62.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 29 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3575% → 72%
Q3 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
74.6%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Raelon SingletonSimilar
Q3 0:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
74.2%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:03
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.0%
Troy Williams run for 1 yd to the Utah 26Similar
Q4 14:45
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-10
71.8%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 56 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for a loss of 10 yards to the Oregn 16 OREGON Penalty, Illegal Block (4 Yards) to the Oregn 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20TD
11 plays · 96 yds · 3:5826% → 65%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
73.6%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 14:20
2ND & 5
OWN 9
0
74.1%
Justin Herbert run for no gain to the Oregn 9Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 5
OWN 9
+7
75.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 7 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+20
72.8%
Justin Herbert run for 20 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
71.2%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+35
72.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 35 yds to the Utah 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
65.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Alex Ofodile for 8 yds to the Utah 21Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+18
65.4%
Royce Freeman run for 18 yds to the Utah 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
65.4%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
65.3%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Utah 1Similar
Q4 10:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
35.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21TD
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4743% → 72%
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
42.9%
Joe Williams run for 7 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q4 9:59
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
46.0%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Harrison HandleySimilar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
42.4%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Evan MoeaiSimilar
Q4 9:43
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
72.2%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 53 yds , Dillon Mitchell fumbled, recovered by Utah Chase Hansen for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:5328% → 71%
Q4 9:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
72.4%
Royce Freeman run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
50
+4
67.3%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+5
67.5%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Utah 41Similar
Q4 8:34
3RD & 1
OPP 41
+4
66.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Utah 37 Royce Freeman fumbled, recovered by Oregn Darren Carrington II for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+31
67.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 31 yds to the Utah 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
64.1%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Utah 1Similar
Q4 7:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
64.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Utah 1Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.0%
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2339% → 90%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
39.0%
UTAH Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Utah 20Similar
Q4 6:35
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+14
38.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 14 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q4 6:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-3
41.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Cory Butler-Byrd for a loss of 3 yards to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+8
35.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 8 yds to the Utah 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
38.3%
Joe Williams run for 6 yds to the Utah 45Similar
Q4 4:30
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+2
41.0%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q4 3:54
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+10
39.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 10 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
42.2%
Joe Williams run for 5 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 2:51
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+8
42.0%
Joe Williams run for 8 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+30
90.3%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 30 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:0821% → 95%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
79.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 4 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 1:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
77.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 1:25
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+14
81.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 14 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
77.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 0:40
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+30
78.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Evan Baylis for 30 yds to the Utah 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
69.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q4 0:14
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+12
74.7%
Justin Herbert run for 12 yds to the Utah 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
75.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q4 0:02
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+17
5.2%
Darren Carrington II 17 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:02
Darren Carrington II 17 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-70.2
TD · Q4 2:18
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 30 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+48.3
TD · Q4 6:41
Justin Herbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
-35.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com