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USC

USC 36 at UCLA 14

UCLA
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:35 · Stefan Flintoft punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 119Home team on offense−16.6Pregame prior−10.2Score differential−9.3Garbage-time factor−6.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:28: Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 7 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +5.5 pts (now 42%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 11:07: Ronald Jones II run for 60 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +6.8 pts (now 67%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 8:11: Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester PAT MISSED) — USC win probability +7.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:08: Matt Boermeester 30 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +3.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 9:54: Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +10.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 11:08USC 4th & 1 at UCLA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    71.3%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:25UCLA 4th & 9 at UCLA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:41USC 4th & 4 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:54UCLA 4th & 8 at USC 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    32.1%−1.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:49UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:33UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 29, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.7%−0.7
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:20UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 31, down 6
    Close callPunted · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:08USC 4th & 2 at UCLA 12, up 6
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.6%−0.6
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    86% to make
    Punt
    69.1%−4.0
    average punt
  9. Q3 7:35UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 47, down 16
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:49USC 4th & 1 at UCLA 41, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.9
    32% to make
    Punt
    87.0%−2.5
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:33USC 4th & 14 at UCLA 14, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−1.8
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−5.6
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:25UCLA 4th & 4 at USC 44, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%−1.5
    27% to make
    Punt
    4.1%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 7:01USC 4th & 3 at UCLA 7, up 19
    Close callKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.8%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.3%−0.4
    91% to make
    Punt
    94.7%−3.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:35UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 18, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.9%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:33USC 4th & 8 at UCLA 48, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.0%
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:30UCLA 4th & 10 at midfield, down 22
    Close callPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.8%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 13:29UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:50USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:28UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:07USC Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 8:11USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:54USC Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1TD
5 plays · 70 yds · 1:1225% → 27%
Q1 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
25.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+7
25.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 7 yds to the UCLA 39Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+5
25.8%
Jalen Starks run for 5 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
26.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 56 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
11 plays · 50 yds · 3:2074% → 73%
Q1 13:10
1ST & 10
50
+6
26.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the UCLA 44Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+4
26.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
27.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds to the UCLA 37Similar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 7
OPP 37
-10
27.4%
Sam Darnold sacked by Kenny Young for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 47 USC Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Sam Darnold) to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 11:31
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+16
27.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 16 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q1 11:08
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+2
28.1%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
28.1%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+28
28.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 28 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
27.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:1828% → 28%
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
28.0%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 9:19
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
28.3%
Nate Starks run for 11 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
28.7%
Darren Andrews run for 1 yd to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 41
0
28.8%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q1 8:34
3RD & 9
OWN 41
0
28.6%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:25
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
28.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4PUNT
11 plays · 34 yds · 4:2871% → 70%
Q1 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
28.7%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 16Similar
Q1 7:37
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
28.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 4 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+11
29.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
29.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q1 6:13
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-5
29.1%
USC Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the USC 32Similar
Q1 6:01
2ND & 9
OWN 32
0
29.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Ronald Jones IISimilar
Q1 5:48
3RD & 9
OWN 32
+12
30.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 12 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
29.3%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 45Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+8
29.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 8 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 4:16
3RD & 1
OPP 47
-3
29.6%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:41
4TH & 4
50
0
30.5%
Chris Tilbey punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5MISSED FG
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:3531% → 34%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
31.2%
Mike Fafaul run for no gain to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+5
31.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 5 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 5
OWN 18
+9
31.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Theo Howard for 9 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
32.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 9 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+4
33.4%
Jalen Starks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+30
33.5%
Jordan Lasley pass complete to Brandon Stephens for 30 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
34.8%
Jalen Starks run for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 7
OPP 27
0
35.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 27
-1
34.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Starks for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 28Similar
Q2 14:54
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
34.0%
JJ Molson 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Rasheem GreenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6INT
3 plays · 7 yds · 0:4168% → 68%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
32.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
32.5%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 14:08
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+32
32.3%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Fabian Moreau return for 32 yds to the USC 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:2736% → 42%
Q2 13:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
36.3%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q2 13:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
41.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 7 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 1:4960% → 67%
Q2 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
40.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q2 12:44
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+3
39.6%
Sam Darnold run for 3 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
40.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 8 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 11:47
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+1
39.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 40Similar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+60
33.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 60 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:5736% → 36%
Q2 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
36.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 4 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 10:20
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
36.8%
Soso Jamabo run for no gain to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 31
0
36.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q2 9:49
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
35.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:2966% → 74%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
34.4%
Sam Darnold run for 13 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
33.3%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+17
33.3%
Adoree' Jackson run for 17 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
26.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2430% → 29%
Q2 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
30.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q2 7:49
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
29.7%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
29.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+16
28.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 39 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 16 yds to the USC 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12INT
9 plays · 8 yds · 4:1273% → 72%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
26.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 6:53
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+15
26.4%
Sam Darnold run for 15 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
26.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 5:35
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+1
26.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 4:58
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+5
26.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 5 yds to the UCLA 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:34
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
26.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 3:48
2ND & 10
OPP 18
-12
26.2%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 12 yards to the UCLA 30 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by USC Sam DarnoldSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 22
OPP 30
-14
27.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 1 yd to the UCLA 29 USC Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UCLA 44Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 36
OPP 44
+23
27.9%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Jayon Brown return for 23 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:2531% → 31%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
30.6%
Nate Starks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 21Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
30.3%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+10
29.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Austin Roberts for 10 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q2 2:20
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
30.8%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FG
14 plays · 61 yds · 2:0671% → 79%
Q2 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
28.8%
Justin Davis run for 11 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
27.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+4
26.7%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
26.9%
Sam Darnold run for 6 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+15
24.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 15 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
23.9%
Sam Darnold run for 9 yds to the UCLA 21 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by USC Sam DarnoldSimilar
Q2 0:43
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
23.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Tyler PetiteSimilar
Q2 0:37
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+1
24.1%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:29
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
24.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 0:15
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
24.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Justin Davis for 8 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q2 0:12
3RD & 2
OPP 12
0
24.5%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:08
4TH & 2
OPP 12
+30
21.5%
Matt Boermeester 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
25.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
13 plays · 50 yds · 4:5677% → 88%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
50
+2
23.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 13:51
2ND & 8
OPP 48
0
22.9%
Sam Darnold run for no gain to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 13:34
3RD & 8
OPP 48
+10
23.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 10 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
22.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q3 12:40
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+3
22.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
22.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+4
22.4%
Deontay Burnett run for 4 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 11:09
3RD & 3
OPP 20
-5
23.1%
USC Penalty, False Start (Viane Talamaivao) to the UCLA 25Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 8
OPP 25
+12
23.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 12 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:21
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
22.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Justin DavisSimilar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+7
22.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 yds to the UCLA 6Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
11.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 1:5515% → 16%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
14.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 9:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+11
14.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 11 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:46
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
15.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 8 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
16.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the UCLA 46 Bolu Olorunfunmi fumbled, recovered by UCLA Bolu OlorunfunmiSimilar
Q3 7:45
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
15.9%
Jalen Starks run for 1 yd to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 7:35
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
15.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18FG
21 plays · 73 yds · 8:4688% → 97%
Q3 7:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+5
12.5%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 5
OWN 18
+5
12.3%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the USC 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-5
12.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Viane Talamaivao) to the USC 18Similar
Q3 6:06
1ST & 15
OWN 18
+3
12.2%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 5:38
2ND & 12
OWN 21
0
12.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 12
OWN 21
+15
11.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 15 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
10.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
50
+5
10.0%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 3:48
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+3
9.7%
Sam Darnold run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
9.6%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 2:49
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+2
10.4%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
9.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 12 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+4
7.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 1:15
2ND & 6
OPP 23
+3
5.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 3
OPP 20
+11
5.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 11 yds to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
5.6%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the UCLA 9Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
5.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for no gain to the UCLA 9Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
-5
5.8%
USC Penalty, False Start (Nico Falah) to the UCLA 14Similar
Q4 13:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
0
5.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q4 13:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 14
+32
3.3%
Matt Boermeester 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 1:405% → 5%
Q4 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
5.3%
Jalen Starks run for 3 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+13
5.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 13 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
5.3%
Jalen Starks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 12:20
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+10
5.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 10 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
50
0
5.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Caleb WilsonSimilar
Q4 11:59
2ND & 10
50
+6
5.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 6 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q4 11:31
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
5.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 4
OPP 44
+3
5.0%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 3 yds to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20FG
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:0598% → 99%
Q4 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
1.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q4 10:22
2ND & 6
OWN 45
-4
1.6%
USC Penalty, Illegal Shift (-4 Yards) to the USC 41Similar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+17
1.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Isaac Whitney for 17 yds to the UCLA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
1.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 8 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 2
OPP 34
0
1.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q4 7:53
3RD & 2
OPP 34
+20
1.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (14 Yards) to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:33
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
1.1%
JuJu Smith-Schuster run for 4 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q4 7:16
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
1.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 3
OPP 7
0
1.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Michael Pittman Jr.Similar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 3
OPP 7
+25
0.7%
Matt Boermeester 25 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:161% → 1%
Q4 6:51
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
1.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q4 6:47
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
1.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q4 6:42
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
1.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q4 6:35
4TH & 10
OWN 18
0
1.1%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
50
+3
0.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-3
0.5%
Max Browne run for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 10
50
+2
0.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 4:33
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
0.5%
Chris Tilbey punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:341% → 1%
Q4 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+9
0.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 9 yds to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 3:54
2ND & 1
OWN 18
+32
0.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 32 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
50
0
1.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
50
0
1.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:37
3RD & 10
50
0
0.9%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:30
4TH & 10
50
0
0.9%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24END OF GAME
6 plays · 19 yds · 3:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
0.4%
James Toland IV run for 5 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 2:30
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+1
0.4%
James Toland IV run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q4 1:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
0.3%
James Toland IV run for 5 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
0.3%
James Toland IV run for 10 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-1
0.3%
James Toland IV run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 40Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 11
OWN 40
-1
0.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:54
Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 6 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
-10.1
TD · Q2 8:11
Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 31 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester PAT MISSED)
-7
TD · Q2 11:07
Ronald Jones II run for 60 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
-6.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com