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ARIZ

Arizona 17 at Oregon State 42

ORST
2016 · Week 12 · Nov 19, 2016 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 11:32 · Jake Glatting punt for 42 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Home team on offense+16.3Pregame prior+5.6Score differential+5.0Garbage-time factor+3.4Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 1:33: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 11 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +7.0 pts (now 73%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:45: Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +5.2 pts (now 33%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:14: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 27 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +9.3 pts (now 81%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:32: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 35 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +12.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 5:16: Ryan Nall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +6.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 3ARIZ made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 12:42ARIZ 4th & 6 at ORST 26, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 37.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    37.3%
    64% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q2 13:43ORST 4th & 15 at ORST 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.8%−3.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  3. Q2 0:33ARIZ 4th & 1 at ORST 9, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−0.9
    89% to make
    Punt
    16.7%−4.7
    average punt
  4. Q3 15:00ARIZ 4th & 16 at ARIZ 19, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.7
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.0%
    average punt
  5. Q3 11:32ARIZ 4th & 4 at ARIZ 31, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.0%−0.8
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.8%
    average punt
  6. Q4 10:52ORST 4th & 1 at ARIZ 17, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.1%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−1.2
    average punt
  7. Q4 4:25ORST 4th & 2 at ARIZ 32, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.3
    51% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−0.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 12:47ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:33ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:45ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    32.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    32.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:14ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:32ORST Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 5:16ORST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:00ARIZ Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:30ORST Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:1363% → 64%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
63.0%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the Ariz 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+2
63.0%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+7
63.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 7 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-15
63.0%
McMaryion, M. pass incomplete to Bolden, Victor, PENALTY OSU personal foul (Nall, Ryan) 15 yards to the OSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:47
1ST & 25
OWN 47
+53
63.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 53 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2DOWNS
15 plays · 53 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
63.6%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+6
63.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 6 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 4
OWN 27
+5
63.7%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 5 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
63.6%
Anu Solomon run for 12 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-6
63.5%
Anu Solomon sacked by Dwayne Williams for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 38Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 16
OWN 38
+10
63.6%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 10 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 6
OWN 48
+11
63.5%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Nate Phillips for 11 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
63.4%
Samajie Grant run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+7
63.4%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Trey Griffey for 7 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
63.3%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
63.3%
Samajie Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+5
63.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 12:42
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
63.4%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:42
4TH & 6
OPP 26
0
63.6%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
12 plays · 74 yds · 6:4465% → 73%
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
65.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+2
65.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 6
OWN 30
+12
64.9%
Ryan Nall run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
65.6%
Ryan Nall run for 16 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
65.7%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+9
65.7%
Ryan Nall run for 9 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
65.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 4 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+2
65.8%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+7
65.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 7 yds to the Ariz 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
65.8%
Paul Lucas run for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+9
65.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 9 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+11
72.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 11 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 1:3329% → 27%
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
70.9%
Anu Solomon run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q1 1:33
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+43
70.8%
Anu Solomon pass complete to Shun Brown for 43 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+16
69.7%
Samajie Grant run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:14
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
71.1%
Samajie Grant run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-8
71.4%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 14 ARIZONA Penalty, Offensive holding (Shun Brown) to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 24
0
72.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cam DensonSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OPP 24
-19
72.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Caleb Saulo for a loss of 19 yards to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 39
OPP 43
0
73.1%
Jake Glatting punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
74.7%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 13:43
2ND & 10
OWN 6
-5
74.7%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 13:43
3RD & 15
OWN 1
0
74.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q2 13:43
4TH & 15
OWN 1
+4
73.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 2:3727% → 33%
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
73.4%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+6
73.4%
Brandon Dawkins run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 12:22
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+3
73.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+13
72.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 13 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
72.6%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q2 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
72.6%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
67.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 10 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7TD
10 plays · 96 yds · 5:2669% → 81%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+9
69.4%
Ryan Nall run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 1
OWN 13
+2
69.5%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
69.5%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+13
69.8%
Ryan Nall run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-7
69.9%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Tristan Cooper for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 17
OWN 27
+22
69.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 22 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+19
71.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 19 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
71.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 5
OPP 27
+27
80.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 27 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8FG
17 plays · 74 yds · 4:0821% → 23%
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
79.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the Ariz 21Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+4
79.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cam Denson for 4 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+6
79.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
78.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+14
79.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 14 yds to the Ariz 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
78.5%
Samajie Grant run for 3 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+3
77.8%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q2 4:08
3RD & 4
OPP 49
+31
77.8%
Brandon Dawkins run for 16 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Devin Chappell) to the OrgSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
76.7%
Zach Green run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+3
76.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 0:33
3RD & 1
OPP 9
0
80.1%
Zach Green run for no gain to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 0:33
4TH & 1
OPP 9
+4
80.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.2%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
79.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
77.0%
Josh Pollack 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0023% → 21%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
77.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate Phillips, broken up by Baker PritchardSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.4%
Samajie Grant run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
-5
78.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Samajie Grant for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 19
+26
78.9%
Jake Glatting punt for 41 yds ARIZONA Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10TD
4 plays · 45 yds · 2:0980% → 91%
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
79.8%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q3 13:41
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+2
79.8%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 13:41
3RD & 4
OPP 39
+4
79.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
91.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 35 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
87.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
87.5%
Samajie Grant run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
87.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 5 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q3 11:32
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
87.4%
Jake Glatting punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:4392% → 99%
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
91.7%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
91.7%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+22
91.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 22 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+33
92.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 33 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
92.1%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
92.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Trevon BradfordSimilar
Q3 9:59
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+8
91.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds to the Ariz 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.1%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the Ariz 3Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
92.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ryan Nall, broken up by Larry Tharpe Jr.Similar
Q3 5:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.5%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13INT
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
97.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 8 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+7
97.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 7 yds to the Ariz 40 Brandon Dawkins fumbled, forced by Caleb Saulo, recovered by Ariz Brandon Dawkins for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
97.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
97.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:16
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+10
97.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
97.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+3
97.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 3 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
97.1%
Samajie Grant run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 7
OPP 35
0
96.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted, touchback. Xavier Crawford return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14FUMBLE
12 plays · 63 yds · 6:2199% → 99%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
98.9%
Paul Lucas run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
98.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+15
98.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 15 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+1
99.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the Ariz 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+11
99.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 11 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
99.2%
Paul Lucas run for 2 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+9
99.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
99.2%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the Ariz 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+8
99.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 8 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+1
99.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 1 yd to the Ariz 17Similar
Q4 10:52
4TH & 1
OPP 17
0
99.4%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the Ariz 17 Ryan Nall fumbled, recovered by Ariz Brandon RuttSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15TD
9 plays · 83 yds · 2:481% → 5%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+15
98.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 15 yds to the Ariz 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
98.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Zach GreenSimilar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+4
98.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tony Ellison for 4 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 6
OWN 36
+7
98.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for 7 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
98.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 11 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
98.4%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 10:48
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
98.4%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+37
98.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cam Denson for 37 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.1%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
16 plays · 65 yds · 6:3097% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
97.2%
Ryan Nall run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
97.5%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+5
97.5%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
97.5%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the Ariz 39Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+7
97.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 2
OPP 32
0
97.4%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 4:25
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+8
98.5%
Timmy Hernandez run for 8 yds to the Ariz 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:25
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
98.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 4:25
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+2
98.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 4
OPP 18
+4
99.1%
McMaryion, M. pass incomplete to Villamin, J., PENALTY ARIZ pass interference (Cruikshank, Dane) 4 yards to the ARIZ14, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
99.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Ariz 12Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+2
99.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 6
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 10 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17END OF GAME
8 plays · 49 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.9%
Khalil Tate run for 5 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+1
99.9%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Ariz 34Similar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 4
OWN 34
+27
99.9%
Matt Morin run for 27 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
99.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cam DensonSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+10
99.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Xavier Crawford) to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cam DensonSimilar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+6
99.8%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:32
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 35 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+12.1
TD · Q2 4:14
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 27 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+9.3
TD · Q1 1:33
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 11 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com