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STAN

Stanford 52 at Oregon 27

ORE
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:07 · Justin Herbert pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+55.5+27.80−27.8−55.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 19Home team on offense+0.1Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Pregame prior−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:58: Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 61 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +6.6 pts (now 66%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 12:57: Conrad Ukropina 43 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +5.6 pts (now 70%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 5:19: Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +11.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:01: Royce Freeman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +17.8 pts (now 29%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:37: Christian McCaffrey run for 14 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +13.0 pts (now 93%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 6 of 9STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 15:00ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 14:07STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.8%−0.2
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 13:07ORE 4th & 7 at STAN 31, tied
    Close callWent for it · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    49.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    49.4%
    54% to make
    Punt
    49.3%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:36ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:05ORE 4th & 6 at STAN 41, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    34.6%−0.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−0.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:57STAN 4th & 8 at ORE 26, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.8%
    64% to make
    Punt
    58.5%−5.3
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 21, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.3%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.6%
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:04STAN 4th & 16 at ORE 49, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:48ORE 4th & 17 at ORE 13, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.7%
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ORE 4th & 18 at ORE 33, down 39
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.4%−0.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.6%
    average punt
  11. Q4 13:37STAN 4th & 1 at ORE 41, up 39
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    99.0%−0.2
    32% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 8:26STAN 4th & 3 at STAN 43, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:43ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 5:43ORE 4th & 1 at ORE 45, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%−<0.1
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:02ORE 4th & 6 at STAN 42, down 32
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 1 of 4STAN made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 9:12STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:36STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    54.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    54.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:58STAN Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:05ORE Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    40.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    40.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 5:19STAN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 4:01ORE Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 0:37STAN Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 11:46STAN Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:54STAN Touchdown, up 38 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:26ORE Touchdown, down 33 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:02ORE Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
47.6%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
47.6%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
47.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
47.6%
Ian Wheeler punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0052% → 52%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-4
47.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 14:07
2ND & 14
OWN 36
0
47.8%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q1 14:07
3RD & 14
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:07
4TH & 14
OWN 36
0
47.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 35 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3DOWNS
10 plays · 40 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
48.1%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+9
48.2%
Justin Herbert run for 9 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
48.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+3
48.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 4
50
+16
48.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 16 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
48.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Stanf 33Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+7
48.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 7 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 2
OPP 26
-5
48.3%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
48.3%
Justin Herbert run for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q1 13:07
4TH & 7
OPP 31
0
48.2%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 4TD
2 plays · 69 yds · 0:4652% → 54%
Q1 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+8
48.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 9:12
2ND & 2
OWN 39
+61
46.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 61 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5FUMBLE
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
46.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 27 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
47.4%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 47 Royce Freeman fumbled, recovered by Stanf Solomon ThomasSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 6TD
5 plays · 47 yds · 2:1354% → 58%
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+17
45.7%
Bryce Love run for 17 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+11
45.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 11 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
45.6%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 8:49
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+11
45.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 11 yds to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
41.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
43.3%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 6:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-3
43.6%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 6:36
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
43.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q1 6:36
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
43.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 8TD
3 plays · 58 yds · 1:3559% → 66%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
41.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 43Similar
Q1 5:33
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-4
41.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 39Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 13
OWN 39
+61
34.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 61 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5335% → 39%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
35.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 17 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
36.0%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+12
36.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 12 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
36.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 4 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 6
OPP 41
0
36.3%
Justin Herbert run for no gain to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 6
OPP 41
0
36.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q1 2:05
4TH & 6
OPP 41
+41
39.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 41 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 10FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 4:0862% → 70%
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+27
38.3%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 12 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
37.8%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 4 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 2:05
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+10
37.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:05
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
37.7%
Keller Chryst sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+9
35.8%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 9 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 24
-5
35.8%
STANFORD Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+3
35.9%
Keller Chryst run for 3 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 12:57
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+43
30.3%
Conrad Ukropina 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11INT
11 plays · 63 yds · 3:2133% → 32%
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
32.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 7 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 3
OWN 28
+4
33.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+16
33.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 16 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
34.2%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 12:57
2ND & 8
50
+23
34.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 23 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+18
35.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 18 yds to the Stanf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
35.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Stanf 6Similar
Q2 12:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
35.1%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Stanf 6Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
-10
32.5%
Herbert, Justin rush for 6 yards to the STAN0, clock 09:36, PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the STAN16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 16
0
31.8%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted, touchback. Joey Alfieri return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12TD
14 plays · 80 yds · 4:0974% → 90%
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
26.5%
Cameron Scarlett run for 11 yds to the Stanf 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+14
26.3%
Bryce Love run for 14 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
25.8%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 45
-5
25.8%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 40Similar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 15
OWN 40
+18
26.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 18 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
25.8%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+2
25.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 9:28
3RD & 8
OPP 40
+16
26.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 16 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
25.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 10 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
25.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Christian McCaffrey, broken up by Arrion SpringsSimilar
Q2 9:28
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+7
25.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 7 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 5:19
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
10.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 1:1811% → 29%
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
50
+1
11.3%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 5:19
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+9
11.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 9 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+37
11.5%
Royce Freeman run for 37 yds to the Stanf 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
29.3%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2478% → 93%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
21.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
21.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 8
OWN 44
+5
21.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+14
21.3%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 14 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+9
20.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 9 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 1
OPP 28
+14
19.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 14 yds to the Oregn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
6.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 14 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 51 yds · 0:376% → 4%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+25
5.6%
Royce Freeman run for 25 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
50
+8
5.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 8 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+15
6.0%
STANFORD Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
6.6%
Justin Herbert run for 8 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & 2
OPP 19
-5
3.3%
Justin Herbert sacked by Harrison Phillips for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 24Similar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+41
4.2%
Aidan Schneider 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
7.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
7.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
7.9%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
8.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 44 yds , Malik Lovette returns for no gain to the Oregn 40 Malik Lovette fumbled, recovered by Stanf Sean BartonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 1:3294% → 97%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+17
5.8%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 17 yds to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
5.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 8 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+15
3.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 15 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18INT
8 plays · 41 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
7.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
6.8%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
6.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 15 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
7.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 16 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
8.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 5 yds to the Stanf 32Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 5
OPP 32
-2
8.1%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 34Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
7.8%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted, touchback. Joey Alfieri return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 1:2497% → 97%
Q3 9:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
3.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 8 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 2
OWN 28
0
3.1%
Keller Chryst run for no gain to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+29
2.7%
Bryce Love run for 29 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
2.4%
Chryst,K pass incomplete to Schultz,D, PENALTY STAN holding 10 yards to the STAN47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:04
1ST & 20
OWN 47
+12
2.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 12 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 8:04
2ND & 8
OPP 41
-6
2.3%
Team run for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 47Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 14
OPP 47
-10
2.5%
Chryst,K pass complete to A.-Whiteside,JJ for 17 yards to the ORE30 (Swain, Jimmie;Schooler, B.), PENALTY STAN holding 10 yards to the STAN43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:04
3RD & 24
OWN 43
+8
2.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 8:04
4TH & 16
OPP 49
0
2.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
2.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
2.2%
Kani Benoit run for 3 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 7
OWN 23
-11
2.2%
OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-11 Yards) to the Oregn 12Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 18
OWN 12
-6
2.2%
Herbert, Justin pass complete to Carrington, D. for 30 yards to the ORE42, PENALTY ORE personal foul 6 yards to the ORE6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 24
OWN 6
+7
2.2%
Royce Freeman run for 7 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 17
OWN 13
0
2.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Oregn 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21TD
6 plays · 44 yds · 2:3999% → 99%
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
1.2%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+19
1.2%
Bryce Love run for 19 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
1.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+3
1.1%
Cameron Scarlett run for 3 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q3 3:33
3RD & 4
OPP 19
+6
1.2%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
0.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for 13 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:461% → 1%
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-6
0.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 30 OREGON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 20Similar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 16
OWN 20
+21
0.6%
Justin Herbert run for 21 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
0.6%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
-2
0.5%
Justin Herbert sacked by Harrison Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 44 Justin Herbert fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 44
-11
0.5%
Justin Herbert sacked by Mike Tyler for a loss of 11 yards to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 18
OWN 33
0
0.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 31 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23DOWNS
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
0.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Donald Stewart for 9 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+5
0.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
50
+1
0.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Oregn 49Similar
Q4 13:37
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+8
0.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 13:37
3RD & 1
OPP 41
0
0.6%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Oregn 41Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
0.7%
Cameron Scarlett run for no gain to the Oregn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 2:260% → 0%
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+11
0.3%
Royce Freeman run for 11 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
0.3%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 47
-1
0.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 10
OPP 48
+10
0.3%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Mitchell, D. (Murphy,A), PENALTY STAN holding 10 yards to the STAN38, 1ST DOWN ORE, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
0.3%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 10:52
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+4
0.3%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q4 10:52
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+15
0.3%
STANFORD Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Stanf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-5
0.3%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 23Similar
Q4 10:52
1ST & 15
OPP 23
+16
0.3%
Justin Herbert run for 16 yds to the Stanf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
0.3%
Kani Benoit run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+6
0.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 6 yds to the Stanf 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
0.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 2 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 8:26
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+5
0.3%
Cameron Scarlett run for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 8:26
3RD & 3
OWN 43
0
0.3%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Donald StewartSimilar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 3
OWN 43
+4
0.3%
Alex Robinson punt for 41 yds , Dillon Mitchell returns for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 4:410% → 0%
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
0.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
0.2%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
0.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+7
0.2%
Kani Benoit run for 7 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
0.2%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+1
0.2%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Oregn 43Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
0.2%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 5:43
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+9
0.2%
Kani Benoit run for 9 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
0.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jalen Brown, broken up by Frank BuncomSimilar
Q4 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+2
0.2%
Justin Herbert run for 2 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 5:43
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+2
0.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Evan Baylis for 2 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q4 1:02
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+42
0.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 42 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 27END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
0.1%
Pat McFadden run for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
0.1%
Pat McFadden run for 1 yd to the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:01
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+17.8
TD · Q2 0:37
Christian McCaffrey run for 14 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-13
TD · Q2 5:19
Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 7 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-11.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com