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ORST

Oregon State 24 at UCLA 38

UCLA
2016 · Week 11 · Nov 12, 2016 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFUMBLETDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 6:23 · Stefan Flintoft punt for 53 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 10 yds to the OrgSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 182Home team on offense+31.4Pregame prior+3.1Score differential+22.9Garbage-time factor+13.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+4.9Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 13:36: Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +0.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:01: Jalen Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +3.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q1 0:47: UCLA Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 30 — UCLA win probability +5.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 0:54: Jordan Choukair 20 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +2.2 pts (now 98%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:14: Timeout UCLA, clock 02:14 — UCLA win probability +0.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 10
  1. Q1 10:57ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 25.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:54UCLA 4th & 19 at UCLA 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.4
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:47ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.7%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:08ORST 4th & 8 at UCLA 34, down 21
    Close callPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.5%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    12.5%−<0.1
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.2%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:57UCLA 4th & 17 at UCLA 20, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%−1.4
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:05UCLA 4th & 3 at UCLA 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.0%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:17UCLA 4th & 3 at ORST 40, up 21
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 92.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    91.8%−1.0
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    91.7%−1.1
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:14ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 9, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.3
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:11UCLA 4th & 10 at ORST 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.2%−0.7
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.0%
    51% to make
    Punt
    92.7%−1.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:53ORST 4th & 12 at UCLA 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 12:34UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 32, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.2%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:43ORST 4th & 12 at ORST 34, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−1.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:54ORST 4th & 2 at UCLA 2, down 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.5%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    -1.4%−3.6
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:57ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 44, down 21
    Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:52UCLA 4th & 9 at ORST 34, up 21
    Close callPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%
    47% to make
    PuntTheir call
    98.4%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:10ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 25, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:23UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 40, up 21
    Close callPunted · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:28ORST 4th & 5 at UCLA 49, down 28
    Close callWent for it · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 13:36ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:03UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:01UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 1FUMBLE
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
77.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 1 yd to the UCLA 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+31
77.4%
Soso Jamabo run for 19 yds to the UCLA 4 Soso Jamabo fumbled, forced by Jalen Moore, recovered by OrgSt Manase Hungalu , return for 31 yds to the UCLA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2TD
2 plays · 35 yds · 0:3623% → 23%
Q1 14:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
77.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q1 13:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 2:2577% → 77%
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-3
76.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 27Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+48
76.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 48 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
76.8%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
76.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Iese for 13 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
76.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q1 13:28
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
76.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 6 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q1 11:03
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
76.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0024% → 24%
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+15
76.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 15 yds to the OrgSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-1
76.3%
Paul Lucas run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 11
OWN 28
+5
76.3%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive offside (Eli Ankou) to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
76.2%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 10:57
3RD & 5
OWN 34
+2
76.4%
Marcus McMaryion run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q1 10:57
4TH & 3
OWN 36
0
76.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 54 yds, downed at the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 35 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
75.5%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OWN 10
0
75.5%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 10
OWN 10
+14
75.3%
Brandon Stephens run for 14 yds to the UCLA 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+30
75.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 30 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
76.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q1 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 46
-6
76.2%
Mike Fafaul sacked by Kalani Vakameilalo for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 48Similar
Q1 7:54
3RD & 16
OWN 48
-3
75.5%
Jalen Starks run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 7:54
4TH & 19
OWN 45
0
75.3%
Austin Kent punt for 33 yds, downed at the OrgSt 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6FUMBLE
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
74.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
74.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+3
74.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
74.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 9 yds Jordan Villamin fumbled, forced by Jaleel Wadood, recovered by UCLA Jayon Brown , return for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 32 OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Jordan Villamin) to the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7TD
9 plays · 30 yds · 2:0176% → 79%
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
75.6%
Jalen Starks run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+4
75.6%
Jalen Starks run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 2
OPP 22
-5
75.3%
UCLA Penalty, false start (Conor McDermott) to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+15
75.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 15 yds to the OrgSt 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:02
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
75.6%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren Andrews, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+5
75.6%
Jalen Starks run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q1 4:02
3RD & 5
OPP 7
+4
75.3%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding (Treston Decoud) to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
78.5%
Jalen Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
Q1 2:01
1ST & 0
OPP 3
-10
78.8%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Nate Iese) to the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8PUNT TD
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1423% → 19%
Q1 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.3%
Paul Lucas run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 2:01
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
77.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Fabian MoreauSimilar
Q1 2:01
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
77.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 3 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q1 0:47
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+23
81.1%
TEAM punt blocked by blocked by Jordan Lasley return for 23 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
86.6%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
11 plays · 42 yds · 2:2913% → 12%
Q1 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
86.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+9
86.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
86.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 8 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+2
86.4%
Tim Cook run for 2 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
50
+14
88.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 14 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
87.9%
Tim Cook run for 2 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 13:08
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
87.6%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 13:08
3RD & 8
OPP 34
0
88.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete, broken up by Takkarist McKinleySimilar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 8
OPP 34
0
88.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 28 yds, downed at the UCLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
90.3%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+3
90.2%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 7
OWN 9
+18
90.0%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 18 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-13
90.4%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-13 Yards) to the UCLA 14Similar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 23
OWN 14
+2
90.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Starks for 2 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 21
OWN 16
+4
90.3%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 20Similar
Q2 10:57
3RD & 17
OWN 20
0
90.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Theo Howard, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 17
OWN 20
+39
89.8%
Austin Kent punt for 35 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 39 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
3 plays · 16 yds · 1:2310% → 10%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
89.6%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCLA 15Similar
Q2 8:28
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+12
89.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 12 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q2 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
92.6%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Nate Iese, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
92.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 7:05
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+5
92.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 5 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q2 7:05
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+51
92.1%
Austin Kent punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden Jr. at the OREGONST 27 OREGON ST Penalty, illegal block (Paul Lucas) to the OrgSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14FUMBLE
5 plays · 53 yds · 0:009% → 10%
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+38
91.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 38 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
90.6%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+9
90.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
90.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & 3
OPP 27
-3
90.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 30 Marcus McMaryion fumbled, recovered by UCLA Kenny YoungSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 30 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
94.1%
Brandon Stephens run for 4 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+19
94.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 19 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
94.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q2 3:17
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+8
94.3%
Jalen Starks run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 2
OPP 39
-1
94.3%
Jalen Starks run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 3:17
4TH & 3
OPP 40
0
93.8%
Austin Kent punt for 38 yds, downed at the OrgSt 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:057% → 7%
Q2 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+1
93.5%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 9
OWN 3
+6
93.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 3
OWN 9
0
93.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q2 1:14
4TH & 3
OWN 9
+6
93.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 17FG
10 plays · 13 yds · 0:4696% → 95%
Q2 0:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
95.5%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-10
95.4%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Conor McDermott) to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 20
OWN 45
+15
95.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 15 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+8
95.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
95.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
95.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Soso JamaboSimilar
Q2 0:34
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
95.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Theo HowardSimilar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+49
94.9%
JJ Molson 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-3
93.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
93.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 18 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
93.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Sean Harlow) to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 20
OWN 43
0
93.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 20
OWN 43
+3
93.6%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+5
93.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 5 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 12
OPP 49
0
93.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
95.3%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+12
95.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 12 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
95.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Nate Iese, broken up by Devin ChappellSimilar
Q3 12:34
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
95.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q3 12:34
3RD & 10
OWN 32
0
95.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III, broken up by Manase HungaluSimilar
Q3 12:34
4TH & 10
OWN 32
0
94.9%
Austin Kent punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 11:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
94.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 11:43
2ND & 12
OWN 34
-11
94.7%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 11 yards to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q3 11:43
3RD & 23
OWN 23
+11
94.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 11 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q3 11:43
4TH & 12
OWN 34
0
94.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22FUMBLE TD
3 plays · 20 yds · 0:5896% → 96%
Q3 9:37
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
96.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 9 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 9:37
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
96.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 7 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+40
96.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 4 yds for a TD Jordan Lasley fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Manase Hungalu , return for 40 yds, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23TD
9 plays · 86 yds · 1:3296% → 97%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
96.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Brandon Stephens for 9 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 1
OWN 23
+9
96.2%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 9 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
96.3%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+15
96.2%
OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Jalen Moore) to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+12
96.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Theo Howard for 12 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
96.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Kyle Haley) to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+22
96.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 22 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.7%
Jalen Starks run for 4 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24FG
15 plays · 71 yds · 6:004% → 2%
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
96.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 11 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
95.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+1
95.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+12
95.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 12 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
95.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 10
OPP 44
-10
95.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Fred Lauina) to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & 20
OWN 46
+6
96.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 6 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & 14
OPP 48
+10
96.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 10 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q3 6:54
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+10
95.9%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive holding (10 Yards) to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+25
95.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 25 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
95.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 6:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
95.3%
Artavis Pierce run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 6:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
95.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Randall GoforthSimilar
Q3 0:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
97.9%
Jordan Choukair 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25INT
10 plays · 60 yds · 0:4298% → 98%
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
98.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Iese for 16 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
98.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Theo Howard for 4 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+10
98.5%
Mike Fafaul run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
98.5%
Soso Jamabo run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+15
98.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Devin Chappell) to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
98.5%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
98.5%
Jalen Starks run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 0
OPP 1
0
98.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive offside (Andrzej Hughes-Murray) to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+37
98.4%
Mike Fafaul pass intercepted Manase Hungalu return for 37 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q4 12:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.5%
Seth Collins pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q4 12:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+7
98.5%
Paul Lucas run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 12:57
3RD & 3
OWN 44
0
98.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:57
4TH & 3
OWN 44
0
98.6%
Nick Porebski punt for 30 yds, downed at the UCLA 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27PUNT
12 plays · 40 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
98.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Theo Howard for 5 yds to the UCLA 31Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+16
98.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 16 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
98.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Theo Howard for 6 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
98.9%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
98.8%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
98.9%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Brandon StephensSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-10
98.9%
UCLA Penalty, Offensive holding (Conor McDermott) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 20
50
+15
98.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Xavier Crawford) to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
98.9%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-1
98.9%
Jalen Starks run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 11
OPP 36
+2
98.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 2 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 11:52
4TH & 9
OPP 34
0
98.7%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 26 yds, downed at the OrgSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+14
99.0%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (Fabian Moreau) to the OrgSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
99.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 8
OWN 24
-5
99.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Blake Brandel) to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+6
99.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q4 8:10
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
99.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
99.2%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Theo Howard for 3 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q4 6:23
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+5
99.2%
Nate Starks run for 5 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 2
OWN 40
0
99.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan Lasley, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q4 6:23
4TH & 2
OWN 40
+10
99.1%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 53 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 10 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 30INT TD
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:541% → 1%
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
99.3%
Paul Lucas run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+5
99.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 5 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
99.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:08
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.3%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 5:08
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+1
99.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 1 yd to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q4 2:14
3RD & 6
OWN 32
+40
99.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted for a TD Randall Goforth return for 40 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 32DOWNS
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:400% → 0%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 16 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Sean Harlow) to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 2:08
1ST & 15
OWN 41
+6
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 6 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q4 2:08
3RD & 9
OWN 47
+4
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 4 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 5
OPP 49
-7
100.0%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Deon Hollins for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 33END OF GAME
2 plays · 25 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+23
100.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
100.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 0:47
UCLA Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 30
+5.5
TD · Q1 2:01
Jalen Starks run for 3 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+3.1
FG · Q3 0:54
Jordan Choukair 20 yd FG GOOD
+2.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com