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ORST

Oregon State 15 at Stanford 26

STAN
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Stanford Stadium
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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:22 · Conrad Ukropina 47 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 104Pregame prior+15.0Home team on offense+11.8Garbage-time factor+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.3Score differential+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:56: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 75 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +3.6 pts (now 20%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q2 1:33: Conrad Ukropina 20 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +3.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:38: Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +8.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:55: Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds for a TD, (Marcus McMaryion pass to Ricky Ortiz for Two-Point Conversion) — ORST win probability +9.7 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 9:36: Conrad Ukropina 36 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +2.6 pts (now 94%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ORST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 10:51ORST 4th & 8 at STAN 8, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.1%−<0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.1%
    90% to make
    Punt
    14.6%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 4:21STAN 4th & 7 at ORST 35, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    83.0%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    82.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:21ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 28, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.0%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 34, down 10
    Close callPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:55STAN 4th & 14 at STAN 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.1%−0.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:24STAN 4th & 7 at ORST 46, up 3
    Close callPunted · 79.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    79.2%−0.8
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    80.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:39ORST 4th & 2 at ORST 33, down 3
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−0.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:33STAN 4th & 3 at ORST 3, up 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.6%−0.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    73.6%−4.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:33ORST 4th & 10 at ORST 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:29STAN 4th & 2 at ORST 13, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%−0.8
    85% to make
    Punt
    75.3%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:29ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 30, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:22STAN 4th & 8 at ORST 30, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.0%
    56% to make
    Punt
    84.8%−1.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:36STAN 4th & 15 at ORST 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.6%−2.9
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    80.7%−8.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:30ORST 4th & 19 at ORST 15, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.8
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:28STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    91.1%−1.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 2:23STAN 4th & 1 at ORST 1, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.3%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    94.6%−0.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    92.9%−2.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:03ORST 4th & 3 at ORST 8, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.0%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.5%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 2 of 2ORST made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 2:11STAN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:56ORST Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 2:38STAN Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:55ORST Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    12.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    12.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FUMBLE
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
85.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+1
85.7%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Stanf 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-4
85.7%
Team run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 33 Team fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Andrzej Hughes-MurraySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2MISSED FG
7 plays · 25 yds · 2:5215% → 16%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+11
85.2%
Ryan Nall run for 11 yds to the Stanf 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
85.2%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the Stanf 22Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+16
85.2%
McMaryion, M. pass incomplete to Collins, Seth, PENALTY STAN pass interference (Meeks,Q) 16 yards to the STAN6, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
85.2%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 11Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+3
85.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 3 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
85.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q1 10:51
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
84.3%
Garrett Owens 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3FG
12 plays · 45 yds · 6:3085% → 83%
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
84.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+5
84.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 5 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-2
84.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 28Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 12
OWN 28
+6
84.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+15
84.4%
Chryst,K pass incomplete to Rector,M, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Decoud, Treston) 15 yards to the STAN49, 1ST DOWN STAN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
84.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Francis Owusu for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
84.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+5
84.7%
Keller Chryst run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
84.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Francis Owusu for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 10:51
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+3
84.8%
Keller Chryst run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q1 10:51
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-3
84.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
83.0%
Conrad Ukropina 52 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
83.1%
Paul Lucas run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-5
83.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
83.2%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
83.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
83.5%
Nick Porebski punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5TD
1 play · 56 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+56
85.2%
Bryce Love run for 56 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:1115% → 15%
Q1 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.7%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
84.5%
Nall, Ryan rush for 4 yards to the OSU34 (Branch,M), PENALTY OSU holding 10 yards to the OSU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:11
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+5
84.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q1 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+9
85.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
84.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
84.6%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
84.6%
Bryce Love run for 5 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+16
84.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 16 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-10
85.1%
Chryst,K rush for 6 yards to the OSU43, out-of-bounds (Saulo, Caleb), PENALTY STAN holding (Tucker,C) 10 yards to the STAN41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 20
OWN 41
0
84.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 20
OWN 41
+5
84.8%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 5 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 15
OWN 46
+1
84.4%
Keller Chryst run for 1 yd to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 14:55
4TH & 14
OWN 47
+28
84.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 18 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STANFORD 35 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8TD
1 play · 75 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
80.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 75 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:2780% → 80%
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
80.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+8
80.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
80.7%
Keller Chryst run for 8 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+4
81.3%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
81.4%
Keller Chryst sacked by Xavier Crawford for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 10:51
2ND & 11
50
+9
80.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 2
OPP 41
-5
81.7%
Keller Chryst run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 7
OPP 46
0
80.3%
Jake Bailey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden Jr. at the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
79.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 2
OWN 21
+4
79.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
79.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q2 6:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+5
79.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q2 6:39
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
79.7%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
80.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG
6 plays · 57 yds · 1:5980% → 83%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+51
80.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 51 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
81.6%
Keller Chryst run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
81.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the OrgSt 5Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
79.4%
Keller Chryst run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 1:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
82.6%
Conrad Ukropina 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
81.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for no gain to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
82.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 7 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
81.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q2 1:33
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
81.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q2 1:33
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
82.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Xavier Hawkins, broken up by Justin ReidSimilar
Q2 1:33
4TH & 10
OWN 36
0
83.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13END OF HALF
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:1182% → 83%
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
82.3%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 15 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
83.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 2 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q2 0:04
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
82.7%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Michael Rector, broken up by Shawn WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14INT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
80.3%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+2
79.8%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 30
0
80.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Kevin Palma return for no gain to the OrgSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15FG
6 plays · 25 yds · 1:5784% → 85%
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+17
83.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 17 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+9
83.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q3 13:26
2ND & 1
OPP 12
0
83.7%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q3 12:03
3RD & 1
OPP 12
-1
82.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 13 Team fumbled, recovered by Stanf Keller ChrystSimilar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 2
OPP 13
+30
85.0%
Conrad Ukropina 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:5316% → 15%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
84.0%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
84.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Justin ReidSimilar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+27
85.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the STANFORD 28 OREGON ST Penalty, kick catching interference (Trevon Bradford) to the Stanf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17MISSED FG
8 plays · 27 yds · 2:5686% → 86%
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
86.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Christian McCaffrey, broken up by Kalani VakameilaloSimilar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+11
86.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
86.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 9 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+5
86.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:18
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
87.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 10:18
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
87.0%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q3 10:18
3RD & 8
OPP 30
0
86.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q3 7:22
4TH & 8
OPP 30
+47
85.6%
Conrad Ukropina 47 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
85.3%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
85.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 5 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 7:22
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+24
85.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 24 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
84.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q3 7:22
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
84.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass intercepted Mustafa Branch return for no gain to the Stanf 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 2:3287% → 96%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
87.0%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q3 5:10
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+6
86.6%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q3 5:10
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+5
86.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+44
87.3%
Keller Chryst run for 44 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
87.7%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:366% → 18%
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
93.8%
Marcus McMaryion run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+52
93.3%
Ryan Nall run for 52 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:31
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+1
91.9%
Seth Collins run for 1 yd to the Stanf 14Similar
Q3 2:31
2ND & 9
OPP 14
+7
91.9%
McMaryion, M. pass incomplete to Pierce, Artavis, QB hurry by Thomas,S, PENALTY STAN roughing passer (Toohill,C) 7 yards to the STAN7, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
91.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 4 yds to the Stanf 3Similar
Q4 14:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.2%
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds for a TD, (Marcus McMaryion pass to Ricky Ortiz for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 5:1389% → 94%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
89.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+8
89.5%
Bryce Love run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+23
89.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
90.0%
Keller Chryst run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+2
92.3%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 16Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+2
91.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+1
92.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 9
OPP 13
-7
92.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 10 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 16
OPP 20
-5
92.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 12:50
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+6
91.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 19Similar
Q4 9:36
4TH & 15
OPP 19
+36
93.8%
Conrad Ukropina 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-12
93.7%
McMaryion, M. pass incomplete to Bolden, Victor, PENALTY OSU personal foul (Andrews, Gavin) 12 yards to the OSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:30
1ST & 22
OWN 12
+3
93.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 19
OWN 15
0
94.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Quenton MeeksSimilar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 19
OWN 15
0
94.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 19
OWN 15
0
94.5%
Nick Porebski punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23DOWNS
13 plays · 61 yds · 6:0595% → 97%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
94.6%
Michael Rector run for 5 yds to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
94.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
94.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+10
94.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+10
94.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
94.9%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+5
95.0%
Love,B rush for 2 yards to the OSU27 (Vakameilalo, K.), PENALTY OSU offside 5 yards to the OSU24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+15
95.0%
Keller Chryst run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
95.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 7Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+3
95.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
94.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 2:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:143% → 2%
Q4 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
97.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q4 2:17
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
97.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 8Similar
Q4 2:03
3RD & 3
OWN 8
0
98.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q4 2:03
4TH & 3
OWN 8
0
98.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25END OF GAME
3 plays · -6 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q4 1:54
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-2
98.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-2
98.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
98.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the OrgSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:55
Marcus McMaryion run for 3 yds for a TD, (Marcus McMaryion pass to Ricky Ortiz for Two-Point Conversion)
-9.7
TD · Q3 2:38
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+8
TD · Q2 10:56
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 75 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
-3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com