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ORE

Oregon 20 at USC 45

USC
2016 · Week 10 · Nov 5, 2016 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:03 · Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Pregame prior+22.0Home team on offense+6.0Score differential+2.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Blowout margin+0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:15: Charles Nelson 25 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider PAT failed) — ORE win probability +4.9 pts (now 18%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:30: Deontay Burnett 2 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick) — USC win probability +3.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 13:51: Ronald Jones II 66 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick) — USC win probability +4.1 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:57: Pharaoh Brown 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +5.3 pts (now 8%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 2:47: Taylor McNamara 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick) — USC win probability +3.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 13:41ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:17USC 4th & 7 at ORE 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.0%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    81.6%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:09ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:21ORE 4th & 10 at ORE 25, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.5%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:48ORE 4th & 12 at USC 36, down 17
    Close callPunted · 13.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    13.8%
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    13.6%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:25USC 4th & 12 at USC 1, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.5%−1.3
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:29USC 4th & 12 at ORE 41, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.1%−0.2
    24% to convert
    Field goal
    83.1%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:03ORE 4th & 10 at USC 41, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:52USC 4th & 20 at USC 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.5%−0.9
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:03ORE 4th & 16 at ORE 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−1.2
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:00ORE 4th & 1 at USC 32, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−2.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    4.5%−3.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:34ORE 4th & 2 at USC 11, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.9%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    6.1%−0.8
    87% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:55ORE 4th & 18 at ORE 29, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:07ORE 4th & 15 at ORE 44, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:42USC 4th & 3 at USC 24, up 32
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ORE made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 8:37USC Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:25USC Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:15ORE Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    17.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:30USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 13:51USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:57ORE Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 2:47USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:41USC Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:41ORE Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0217% → 17%
Q1 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
83.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 14:28
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
83.4%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:28
3RD & 6
OWN 20
-5
83.4%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 14:12
3RD & 11
OWN 15
+3
83.3%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the Oregn 18Similar
Q1 13:41
4TH & 8
OWN 18
+28
83.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 45 yds , Michael Pittman Jr. returns for 28 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2FG
5 plays · 18 yds · 1:0883% → 83%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
83.3%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
83.2%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 12:46
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+4
83.1%
Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the Oregn 17Similar
Q1 12:22
3RD & 7
OPP 17
0
83.0%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:17
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+35
83.0%
Matt Boermeester 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:0017% → 17%
Q1 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
82.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+4
82.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 4 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+3
82.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q1 11:09
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
82.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
8 plays · 60 yds · 2:2683% → 84%
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
82.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Dominic Davis for 5 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q1 10:57
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+12
82.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 12 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
82.8%
USC Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 9:40
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+14
82.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 14 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
82.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:06
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+2
82.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
82.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 1
OPP 23
+23
83.5%
Ronald Jones II 23 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0917% → 17%
Q1 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
83.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q1 8:27
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
83.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
83.3%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.4%
Ian Wheeler punt for 32 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 1 yd to the USC 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:1584% → 86%
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
83.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q1 7:22
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+13
83.5%
Dominic Davis run for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+27
83.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 27 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
83.6%
Dominic Davis run for 2 yds to the Oregn 9Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+3
83.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 3 yds to the Oregn 6Similar
Q1 5:32
3RD & 5
OPP 6
+3
83.6%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (3 Yards) to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.6%
Ronald Jones II 3 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 0
OWN 0
-5
86.1%
USC Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7PUNT
12 plays · 36 yds · 3:1114% → 13%
Q1 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
86.0%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+4
86.0%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 4:31
2ND & 6
OWN 42
-5
85.8%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 37Similar
Q1 4:27
2ND & 11
OWN 37
0
86.1%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:13
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+29
86.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 29 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:04
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
85.6%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q1 3:43
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+3
85.6%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & 3
OPP 27
+1
86.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 2
OPP 26
-5
86.0%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 31Similar
Q1 2:15
4TH & 7
OPP 31
-5
86.4%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the USC 36Similar
Q1 1:48
4TH & 12
OPP 36
0
86.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 33 yds, downed at the USC 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:1687% → 87%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
87.2%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the USC 3Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-2
87.3%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 1Similar
Q1 0:35
3RD & 12
OWN 1
0
87.2%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 12
OWN 1
0
87.0%
Chris Tilbey punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
1 play · 25 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+25
82.0%
Charles Nelson 25 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10PUNT
13 plays · 34 yds · 3:3184% → 84%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 14:58
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
83.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
83.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 14:11
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
83.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
84.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 8 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-2
84.8%
Dominic Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
Q2 12:58
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+7
84.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 7 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:21
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-6
84.9%
USC Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-6 Yards) to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 12:17
1ST & 16
OPP 45
0
84.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to De'Quan HamptonSimilar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 16
OPP 45
+4
84.6%
Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 12
OPP 41
0
84.3%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:29
4TH & 12
OPP 41
0
83.7%
Chris Tilbey punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 52 yds · 4:1616% → 16%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+3
83.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 7
OWN 10
+3
83.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 3 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 4
OWN 13
+9
84.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 9 yds to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+15
83.6%
USC Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
83.3%
OREGON Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 15
OWN 32
+2
83.8%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q2 9:13
2ND & 13
OWN 34
+25
83.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Taj Griffin for 25 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:51
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
82.8%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-5
82.7%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 43Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 12
OPP 43
+2
83.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 2 yds to the USC 41Similar
Q2 7:03
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
84.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT
13 plays · 46 yds · 4:0685% → 86%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
84.5%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+7
84.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q2 6:10
3RD & 3
OWN 8
+5
83.9%
Sam Darnold run for 5 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
84.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 4 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q2 5:23
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+10
84.7%
Sam Darnold run for 10 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:24
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
84.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 28Similar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+29
85.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 29 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
86.0%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:23
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-10
86.0%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 47Similar
Q2 3:05
2ND & 20
OWN 47
0
85.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:52
3RD & 20
OWN 47
0
85.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Dominic Davis for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q2 2:52
4TH & 20
OWN 47
0
85.7%
Chris Tilbey punt for 53 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:1914% → 13%
Q2 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-6
86.4%
Justin Herbert sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 14Similar
Q2 2:16
2ND & 16
OWN 14
0
86.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Royce FreemanSimilar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 16
OWN 14
0
87.0%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:03
4TH & 16
OWN 14
+15
87.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 46 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 15 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
15 plays · 45 yds · 1:2088% → 91%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
87.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 8 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q2 1:38
2ND & 2
OPP 37
-10
88.0%
Jones II, Ronald rush for no gain to the OREGON37, PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the OREGON47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:22
2ND & 12
OPP 47
0
87.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+17
87.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 17 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+8
88.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 8 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 2
OPP 22
-5
87.3%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 27Similar
Q2 0:53
3RD & 7
OPP 27
+10
86.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 10 yds to the Oregn 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
87.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+15
87.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 15 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
87.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for no gain to the Oregn 2Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
90.9%
Deontay Burnett 2 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
90.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0391% → 97%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
90.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 1 yd to the USC 26Similar
Q3 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
93.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 8 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 13:51
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+66
97.2%
Ronald Jones II 66 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 3:394% → 8%
Q3 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+7
96.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 7 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q3 13:02
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+7
96.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 7 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
96.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 7 yds to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+3
96.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+15
97.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 15 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
97.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 4 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
97.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+8
97.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 8 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:46
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+16
97.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 16 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
97.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 8 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q3 9:57
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
91.7%
Pharaoh Brown 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:3295% → 95%
Q3 9:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.5%
Dominic Davis run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q3 9:16
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
94.6%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Brenden Schooler return for 13 yds to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 2:357% → 7%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
92.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
92.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 8:28
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
93.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 6 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 8:00
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+3
92.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q3 7:35
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+8
92.7%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the USC 21Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+2
93.0%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
92.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
92.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q3 6:51
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+8
93.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 8 yds to the USC 11Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 2
OPP 11
0
93.1%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
8 plays · 89 yds · 3:3895% → 99%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
95.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q3 5:47
2ND & 3
OWN 18
0
95.2%
Sam Darnold run for no gain to the USC 18 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by USCSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+17
95.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 17 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
95.6%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 34Similar
Q3 4:17
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+37
95.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 37 yds to the Oregn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+18
95.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 18 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
96.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q3 2:47
2ND & 6
OPP 7
+7
99.1%
Taylor McNamara 7 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 1:201% → 2%
Q3 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-5
98.7%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q3 1:58
2ND & 15
OWN 32
+2
98.6%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 13
OWN 34
-5
98.9%
Justin Herbert sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 29Similar
Q3 0:55
4TH & 18
OWN 29
0
98.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 4:0299% → 100%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-10
99.4%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 33Similar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 20
OWN 33
-15
99.3%
USC Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (-15 Yards) to the USC 18Similar
Q4 14:53
1ST & 35
OWN 18
+1
99.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 19Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 34
OWN 19
+21
99.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 21 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+16
99.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 16 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+12
99.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 12 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+31
99.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 31 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.5%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Oregn 1Similar
Q4 11:41
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.8%
Ronald Jones II 1 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 1:250% → 0%
Q4 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
99.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
99.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 11 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
99.8%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+1
99.8%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:07
3RD & 9
50
-6
99.9%
Justin Herbert sacked by Quinton Powell for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 10:07
4TH & 15
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q4 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Dominic Davis run for no gain to the USC 17Similar
Q4 9:23
2ND & 10
OWN 17
-10
99.9%
Davis, Dominic rush for 2 yards to the USC19, PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the USC9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:34
2ND & 18
OWN 9
+15
99.9%
Dominic Davis run for 15 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 7:51
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Max Browne pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:42
4TH & 3
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Chris Tilbey punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 1:460% → 0%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
99.9%
Dakota Prukop run for 1 yd to the Oregn 29Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+35
99.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Jalen Brown for 35 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the USC 36Similar
Q4 6:22
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Dillon Mitchell for 6 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 6:14
3RD & 4
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:07
4TH & 4
OPP 30
+10
99.9%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (10 Yards) to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.9%
USC Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the USC 15Similar
Q4 5:55
1ST & 5
OPP 15
0
99.9%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:41
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+15
99.6%
Dakota Prukop run for 15 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26END OF GAME
10 plays · 48 yds · 5:12100% → 100%
Q4 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
99.7%
James Toland IV run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+5
99.8%
James Toland IV run for 5 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
99.8%
James Toland IV run for 10 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
99.8%
James Toland IV run for 7 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+9
99.8%
James Toland IV run for 9 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.8%
James Toland IV run for 6 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 1:47
2ND & 4
OPP 33
+3
99.9%
James Toland IV run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
James Toland IV run for 4 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
99.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:57
Pharaoh Brown 5 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)
-5.3
TD · Q1 0:15
Charles Nelson 25 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider PAT failed)
-4.9
TD · Q3 13:51
Ronald Jones II 66 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com