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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadUCLA aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreUCLA score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:42 · Alex Kinney punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- KEY PLAY · Q2 5:30: Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the Colo 17 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brian Boatman) to the Colo 9 for a 1ST down — UCLA win probability +7.3 pts (now 41%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- FG · Q3 7:28: Chris Graham 21 Yd Field Goal — COLO win probability +5.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:40: Chris Graham 37 Yd Field Goal — COLO win probability +8.2 pts (now 76%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q4 6:33: UCLA Penalty, False Start (Kenny Lacy) to the UCLA 15 — UCLA win probability +7.6 pts (now 32%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
- TD · Q4 5:27: Isaiah Oliver 68 Yd Punt Return (Chris Graham Kick) — COLO win probability +23.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 7UCLA made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 13:15UCLA 4th & 29 at UCLA 6, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 24.6% before the snapGo for it24.4%−0.26% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call24.7%average punt
- Q1 12:00COLO 4th & 2 at UCLA 29, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call75.2%57% to convertField goal75.1%−0.158% to makePunt74.8%−0.4average punt
- Q1 2:37COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, tiedClose callPunted · 72.4% before the snapGo for it72.6%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.3%−0.3average punt
- Q2 14:06UCLA 4th & 21 at UCLA 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snapGo for it27.1%−1.58% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.6%average punt
- Q2 12:19UCLA 4th & 13 at COLO 31, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 28.9% before the snapGo for it28.3%−0.621% to convertField goalTheir call28.9%54% to makePunt28.4%−0.5average punt
- Q2 10:42COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 34, down 3Close callPunted · 67.9% before the snapGo for it68.4%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.5%−0.9average punt
- Q2 9:29UCLA 4th & 15 at UCLA 36, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.6% before the snapGo for it30.1%−1.617% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call31.8%average punt
- Q2 3:44UCLA 4th & 9 at COLO 9, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.8% before the snapGo for it35.2%−0.925% to convertField goalTheir call36.2%89% to makePunt30.0%−6.1average punt
- Q3 12:49COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snapGo for it58.2%−1.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.5%average punt
- Q3 11:22UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 23, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.0% before the snapGo for it38.6%−1.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.9%average punt
- Q3 7:28COLO 4th & 2 at UCLA 2, down 3Numbers favored go for it by 2.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 59.2% before the snapGo for it59.8%48% to convertField goalTheir call57.3%−2.694% to makePunt46.2%−13.6average punt
- Q3 4:42UCLA 4th & 10 at COLO 27, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.5% before the snapGo for it37.8%−1.529% to convertField goalTheir call39.4%62% to makePunt29.9%−9.5average punt
- Q4 11:48UCLA 4th & 11 at UCLA 40, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.3% before the snapGo for it26.0%−2.026% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call28.0%average punt
- Q4 7:59COLO 4th & 8 at UCLA 31, up 3Close callWent for it · 74.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.0%−0.434% to convertField goal73.4%54% to makePunt69.9%−3.5average punt
- Q4 6:33COLO 4th & 7 at UCLA 18, up 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 75.8% before the snapGo for it72.4%−1.635% to convertField goalTheir call73.9%79% to makePunt57.0%−17.0average punt
- Q4 5:27UCLA 4th & 20 at UCLA 20, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snapGo for it19.9%−3.69% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call23.5%average punt
- Q4 3:35UCLA 4th & 5 at COLO 19, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.7%40% to convertField goalTheir call7.2%−0.577% to makePunt4.8%−2.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 2 of 2UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 5:49COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call75.7%97% to makeGo for two75.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:04UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call26.5%97% to makeGo for two26.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:27COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.9%97% to makeGo for two92.8%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUCLADrive 1PUNT5 plays · -19 yds · 1:3627% → 28%
Q1 14:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-22
72.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 22 yards to the UCLA 5 Lokeni Toailoa fumbled, recovered by UCLASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2INT8 plays · 7 yds · 2:2273% → 72%
Q1 12:40
3RD & 12
OPP 39
+10
72.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 10 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-3
72.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 10:53
3RD & 13
OPP 30
0
72.1%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Tahaan Goodman return for no gain to the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 3INT7 plays · 52 yds · 1:5028% → 29%
Q1 10:46
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
71.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 3 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 10:39
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+15
71.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 15 yds to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+16
71.7%
Mike Fafaul run for 1 yd to the UCLA 29 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Personal Foul (Jimmie Gilbert) to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD8 plays · 38 yds · 2:2172% → 75%
Q1 7:51
3RD & 5
OPP 33
+6
71.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 6 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 11
OPP 28
+9
71.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 9 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 2
OPP 19
+18
71.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 18 yds to the UCLA 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 5TD5 plays · 38 yds · 1:2327% → 30%
Q1 4:04
3RD & 11
OPP 39
+39
69.8%
Darren Andrews 39 Yd pass from Mike Fafaul (Andrew Strauch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2170% → 70%
Q1 2:37
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+3
69.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 46 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 3 yds to the UCLA 37 UCLA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Octavius Spencer) to the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 7PUNT10 plays · 19 yds · 3:2331% → 31%
Q1 0:49
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+10
68.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Austin Roberts for 10 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:38
3RD & 14
OWN 39
-2
68.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 21
OWN 32
+2
69.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 38 yds , Isaiah Oliver returns for 2 yds to the Colo 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q2 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
69.7%
Sefo Liufau pass intercepted Cameron Judge return for 12 yds to the Colo 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 9FG4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1434% → 33%
Q2 12:45
3RD & 18
OPP 36
+5
67.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 5 yds to the Colo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2367% → 66%
UCLADrive 11PUNT6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0335% → 34%
COLODrive 12FUMBLE10 plays · 53 yds · 3:3765% → 66%
Q2 8:53
2ND & 4
OWN 20
+11
65.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 11 yds to the Colo 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+8
65.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 8 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
65.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 12 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
66.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+49
66.4%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 18 Sefo Liufau fumbled, forced by Takkarist McKinley, recovered by UCLA Jayon Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 49 yds to the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 13MISSED FG5 plays · 9 yds · 1:4641% → 39%
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+9
59.1%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the Colo 17 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Brian Boatman) to the Colo 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14INT6 plays · 32 yds · 1:5162% → 62%
Q2 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 38
+17
64.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 17 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
64.4%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (Sam Kronshage) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 13
OPP 48
0
62.1%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Randall Goforth return for no gain to the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 15PUNT3 plays · 8 yds · 0:5141% → 40%
COLODrive 16END OF HALF2 plays · 6 yds · 0:2161% → 60%
COLODrive 17PUNT8 plays · 16 yds · 1:5660% → 57%
UCLADrive 18PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2043% → 41%
Q3 11:22
4TH & 5
OWN 23
+42
59.1%
Adam Searl punt for 36 yds , Isaiah Oliver returns for 42 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19FG8 plays · 15 yds · 3:4863% → 66%
UCLADrive 20MISSED FG9 plays · 48 yds · 2:4039% → 42%
Q3 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
60.7%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 7 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Ryan Moeller) to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+26
55.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 26 yds to the Colo 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 6
OPP 23
-10
53.1%
Mike Fafaul sacked by Chidobe Awuzie for a loss of 10 yards to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 16
OPP 33
+6
58.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 6 yds to the Colo 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21FG15 plays · 54 yds · 5:5563% → 76%
Q3 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
63.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 2 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+7
62.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 7 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+29
65.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 14 yds to the COLORADO 43 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Deon Hollins) to the UCLA 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
68.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q3 1:43
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+17
68.0%
Sefo Liufau run for 11 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Jaleel Wadood) to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
67.4%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the UCLA 9 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Jayon Brown) to the UCLA 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-12
67.4%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the UCLA 1 COLORADO Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (Bryce Bobo) to the UCLA 16Similar
Q4 14:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
-8
67.3%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22PUNT9 plays · 12 yds · 1:3832% → 29%
Q4 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
68.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren Andrews, broken up by Afolabi LagudaSimilar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+12
70.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 12 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:56
3RD & 11
OWN 40
0
69.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan Lasley, broken up by Tedric ThompsonSimilar
Q4 11:48
4TH & 11
OWN 40
0
71.0%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Oliver at the Colo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23MISSED FG17 plays · 66 yds · 5:0773% → 76%
Q4 11:10
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+15
72.4%
Liufau, Sefo pass incomplete to Ross, Devin, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Goforth, Randall) 15 yards to the COLORADO31, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN COLORADO.Similar
Q4 10:28
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+7
73.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 7 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 10:01
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+5
74.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 5 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+14
75.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 14 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+4
77.6%
Devin Ross run for 4 yds to the UCLA 33 Devin Ross fumbled, recovered by Colo Devin Ross for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:59
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+10
74.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-2
78.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 18Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 7
OPP 18
0
77.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin Ross, broken up by Randall GoforthSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24PUNT TD6 plays · 0 yds · 1:0632% → 7%
Q4 6:28
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+15
68.7%
Fafaul, Mike pass incomplete to Roberts, Austin, PENALTY COLORADO roughing passer (Falo, N.J.) 15 yards to the UCLA30, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 10
OWN 30
-10
70.1%
Mike Fafaul sacked by Christian Shaver for a loss of 10 yards to the UCLA 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25MISSED FG8 plays · 63 yds · 1:348% → 8%
Q4 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+47
92.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Austin Roberts for 47 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
90.0%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 4 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q4 4:33
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+7
89.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 7 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
89.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 5 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 5
OPP 19
0
90.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Jordan Lasley, broken up by Tedric ThompsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26END OF GAME11 plays · 20 yds · 3:2794% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 5:27
Isaiah Oliver 68 Yd Punt Return (Chris Graham Kick)
+23.2
FG · Q4 13:40
Chris Graham 37 Yd Field Goal
+8.2
KEY PLAY · Q4 6:33
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Kenny Lacy) to the UCLA 15
-7.6