Try the model
WSU

Washington State 35 at Oregon State 31

ORST
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Reser Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadWSU aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreWSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:04 · Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 17 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST down lat. to Victor Bolden Jr. for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST down to Ryan Nall for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:04: Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 46 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +24.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 6:57: Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 37 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +16.3 pts (now 62%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 3:34: Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 28 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +17.8 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:40: Ryan Nall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +35.7 pts (now 64%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 10:19: Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 1 yd for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +26.9 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 10WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 10:45ORST 4th & 8 at WSU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.2%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.9%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:45WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 35, tied
    Close callPunted · 83.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:29WSU 4th & 11 at WSU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 41, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.4%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:51ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00ORST 4th & 3 at WSU 14, up 15
    Close callKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.7%−0.4
    84% to make
    Punt
    56.0%−5.1
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:54WSU 4th & 11 at WSU 23, down 18
    Numbers favored punt by 3.6 ptsWent for it · 34.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.6%−3.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    36.2%
    average punt
  8. Q3 13:33ORST 4th & 17 at WSU 35, up 18
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsPunted · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%−2.6
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    72.6%
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    71.3%−1.3
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:36ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 28, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.4%−3.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:50ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−2.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:26ORST 4th & 11 at ORST 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−1.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00WSU 4th & 10 at WSU 22, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−3.6
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:48ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 49, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.0%−0.6
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.6%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:12ORST 4th & 6 at WSU 38, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    30.9%−1.8
    38% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−2.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:56WSU 4th & 2 at WSU 43, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.4%−1.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:57ORST 4th & 1 at WSU 34, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 35.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    35.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    28.7%−6.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    24.5%−10.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 0:09WSU 4th & 5 at ORST 15, up 4
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.8%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    88.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    84.9%−3.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4WSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 8:41ORST Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:12ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:04ORST Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:39WSU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 10:42WSU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    38.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    37.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 6:57WSU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:34WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 12:40ORST Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:19WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1MISSED FG
11 plays · 48 yds · 4:1512% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 17 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
12.4%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 48
-2
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 8 yds to the OREGONST 44 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 46
-5
12.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+19
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 19 yds to the WshSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
12.4%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 11 yds to the WshSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 2 yds to the WshSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 27
0
12.4%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the WshSt 27Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 27
0
12.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 8
OPP 27
+45
14.5%
Garrett Owens 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
14.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 7 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q1 10:45
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+1
14.2%
James Williams run for 1 yd to the WshSt 35Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 2
OWN 35
0
14.3%
Luke Falk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
4TH & 2
OWN 35
+10
14.4%
Kyle Sweet punt for 53 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 11 , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45 OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (11 Yards) to the OrgSt 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
3 plays · 89 yds · 0:4215% → 17%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-5
15.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q1 9:23
1ST & 15
OWN 6
+5
15.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 5 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+89
16.7%
Ryan Nall run for 89 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 4PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 1:1283% → 82%
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
16.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 5 yds to the WshSt 23Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+13
16.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 13 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
16.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 7 yds to the WshSt 43Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 3
OWN 43
0
16.4%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Jalen MooreSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+7
17.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:29
1ST & 10
50
+3
17.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 3 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 7
OPP 47
-5
17.2%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the WshSt 48Similar
Q1 7:29
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
17.4%
Luke Falk pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:29
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+1
17.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 1 yd to the WshSt 49Similar
Q1 7:29
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
17.8%
Kyle Sweet punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden Jr. at the OrgSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:3219% → 28%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
19.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 3
OWN 17
0
19.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Marcellus PippinsSimilar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+15
19.1%
McMaryion, M. pass incomplete to Jarmon, Hunter, PENALTY WSU roughing passer (Moore, Derek) 15 yards to the OSU32, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
19.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
19.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+4
19.6%
Seth Collins run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+38
19.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 38 yds to the WshSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
20.0%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the WshSt 19Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+19
28.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 19 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 6PUNT
11 plays · 35 yds · 2:0873% → 71%
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
26.7%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Tavares Martin Jr.Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 6
+9
26.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 9 yds to the WshSt 15Similar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 1
OWN 15
+9
26.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to C.J. Dimry for 9 yds to the WshSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
26.3%
Jamal Morrow run for 4 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
Q1 2:08
2ND & 6
OWN 28
0
26.2%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Tavares Martin Jr., broken up by Kyle HaleySimilar
Q1 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+8
26.3%
Jamal Morrow run for 8 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
26.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 6 yds to the WshSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 42
-1
28.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gerard Wicks for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 41
0
29.1%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe MarksSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 41
0
29.4%
Kyle Sweet punt for 52 yds, downed at the OrgSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0932% → 32%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+20
32.2%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:51
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
33.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q2 13:51
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+2
33.0%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 13:51
3RD & 8
OWN 29
0
32.7%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q2 13:51
4TH & 8
OWN 29
+47
32.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 47 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 48 yds · 0:0067% → 68%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+27
33.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 27 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
50
+15
32.0%
Falk, Luke pass incomplete to Marks, Gabe (Decoud, Treston), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Decoud, Treston) 15 yards to the OSU35, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
31.4%
Luke Falk pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
31.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 4 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 12:42
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+6
32.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 6 yds River Cracraft fumbled, forced by Jalen Moore, recovered by OrgSt Devin ChappellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9TD
9 plays · 71 yds · 4:1138% → 67%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
37.7%
Artavis Pierce run for no gain to the OrgSt 29Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
37.6%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 6 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 11:15
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+7
37.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 7 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
38.6%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 11:15
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+7
38.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 4
OWN 48
-5
43.1%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Gus Lavaka) to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q2 7:50
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+11
42.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 11 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:04
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+46
66.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 46 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 2:1941% → 54%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
58.8%
James Williams run for 2 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+21
59.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 21 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+11
57.4%
James Williams run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
56.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 5 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+4
55.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to John Thompson for 4 yds John Thompson fumbled, forced by Devin Chappell,Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 1
OPP 33
+33
46.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 33 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11FG
13 plays · 64 yds · 4:3352% → 60%
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
52.3%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q2 4:33
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+14
52.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 14 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
53.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 16 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
58.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 12 yds to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+9
59.1%
Ryan Nall run for 9 yds to the WshSt 25Similar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 1
OPP 25
+4
58.9%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the WshSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
59.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:34
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
59.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q2 2:34
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+7
58.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 7 yds to the WshSt 14Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 3
OPP 14
+32
60.4%
Garrett Owens 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 12DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
63.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 2 yds to the WshSt 26Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 8
OWN 26
-3
63.5%
Luke Falk sacked by Bright Ugwoegbu for a loss of 3 yards to the WshSt 23Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
64.1%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe MarksSimilar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 11
OWN 23
+5
64.1%
Kyle Sweet run for 5 yds to the WshSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:0072% → 69%
Q3 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
72.1%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the WshSt 27Similar
Q3 13:33
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-8
72.4%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Garrett McBroom for a loss of 8 yards to the WshSt 35Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 17
OPP 35
0
71.3%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q3 13:33
4TH & 17
OPP 35
0
69.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 35 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 14TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:0631% → 47%
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
69.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 11 yds to the WshSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
68.0%
Gerard Wicks run for 3 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q3 10:42
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+66
53.4%
Luke Falk pass complete to Jamal Morrow for 66 yds for a TD, (Luke Falk pass to Kyle Sweet for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0056% → 53%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-5
55.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Tuli Wily-Matagi) to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 10:36
1ST & 15
OWN 24
-4
55.1%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 19
OWN 20
+8
54.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 8 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 11
OWN 28
0
53.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 11
OWN 28
+45
52.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 45 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 27 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 16TD
6 plays · 74 yds · 2:0043% → 62%
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
57.3%
James Williams run for 5 yds to the WshSt 31Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-5
56.4%
WASHINGTON ST Penalty, false start (Andre Dillard) to the WshSt 26Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+15
57.7%
Falk, Luke pass incomplete to Cracraft, River, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Chappell, Devin) 15 yards to the WSU41, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+20
55.8%
Jamal Morrow run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
54.4%
Luke Falk run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 37Similar
Q3 6:57
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+37
38.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 37 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0044% → 42%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
44.2%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 2 yds to the OrgSt 24Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 8
OWN 24
0
44.1%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 8
OWN 24
0
42.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 6:50
4TH & 8
OWN 24
0
41.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 49 yds, downed at the WshSt 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 18TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 2:1057% → 79%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
43.1%
James Williams run for no gain to the WshSt 27Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+20
43.7%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 20 yds to the WshSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
39.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 5:44
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+10
39.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 10 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+11
39.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 11 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
21.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 28 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 19PUNT
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+4
26.9%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 6
OWN 14
-5
26.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Blake Brandel) to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 9
+41
26.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Ryan Nall for 41 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
50
-1
30.7%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 11
OWN 49
0
28.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 11
OWN 49
0
27.5%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
25.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kaleb Fossum at the WshSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:4374% → 72%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
26.3%
James Williams run for 3 yds to the WshSt 11Similar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+11
26.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 11 yds to the WshSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-10
25.6%
Falk, Luke rush for 4 yards to the WSU26, out-of-bounds (Decoud, Treston), PENALTY WSU holding (Wicks, Gerard) 10 yards to the WSU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 12
+10
25.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 10 yds to the WshSt 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
25.9%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to River CracraftSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 22
0
27.1%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to John ThompsonSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 22
0
28.5%
Kyle Sweet punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0033% → 29%
Q4 13:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
33.0%
Marcus McMaryion pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+2
32.6%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q4 13:48
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
31.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:48
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
28.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 37 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for no gain to the WshSt 3 Kaleb Fossum fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Andre BoddenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
64.4%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:2145% → 80%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
55.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 17 yds to the WshSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
53.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 12 yds to the WshSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+13
50.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 13 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+14
49.5%
James Williams run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+20
47.4%
James Williams run for 20 yds to the OrgSt 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
47.4%
James Williams run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
20.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 1 yd for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24DOWNS
9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0032% → 33%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
31.5%
Ryan Nall run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+3
34.6%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
34.2%
McMaryion, M. pass incomplete to Bolden, Victor, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Molton, Darrien) 15 yards to the WSU42, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
36.1%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the WshSt 42Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
35.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+9
34.4%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 9 yds to the WshSt 33Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 1
OPP 33
-5
33.4%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Tuli Wily-Matagi) to the WshSt 38Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 6
OPP 38
+3
32.5%
Tim Cook run for 3 yds to the WshSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
22.1%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to James Williams, broken up by Caleb SauloSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
22.7%
Jamal Morrow run for 3 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+5
21.7%
Falk, Luke pass incomplete to Marks, Gabe, PENALTY OSU offside defense (Ugwoegbu, B.) 5 yards to the WSU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 2
OWN 43
0
20.9%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by Caleb SauloSimilar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 2
OWN 43
0
23.1%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to River CracraftSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0037% → 34%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
36.9%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Trevon Bradford for 2 yds to the WshSt 41Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+7
36.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 7 yds to the WshSt 34Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
36.4%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the WshSt 34Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 1
OPP 34
0
33.9%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the WshSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 27DOWNS
13 plays · 50 yds · 3:4482% → 95%
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
18.1%
Jamal Morrow run for 2 yds to the WshSt 36Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+12
17.7%
Luke Falk sacked by Bright Ugwoegbu for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 34 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Bright Ugwoegbu) to the WshSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+12
16.4%
Jamal Morrow run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:53
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
15.8%
Jamal Morrow run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 34 Jamal Morrow fumbled, forced by Caleb Saulo,Similar
Q4 3:53
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+14
14.3%
James Williams run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
6.9%
Gerard Wicks run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 18Similar
Q4 1:39
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+1
6.6%
James Williams run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q4 1:39
3RD & 7
OPP 17
+2
7.4%
Gerard Wicks run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 15Similar
Q4 0:09
4TH & 5
OPP 15
-1
5.3%
Gerard Wicks run for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
12.8%
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 17 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST down lat. to Victor Bolden Jr. for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST down to Ryan Nall for 3 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 12:40
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+35.7
TD · Q4 10:19
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 1 yd for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
-26.9
TD · Q2 7:04
Marcus McMaryion pass complete to Seth Collins for 46 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+24.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com