2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Rice-Eccles Stadium
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Win probability · UTAH
modelUTAH aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playUTAH scoreWASH score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:05 · Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 49 yds, downed at the Wash 7
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 4:52: Joe Williams run for 2 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +8.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:17: Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 6 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +15.0 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:36: Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK) — WASH win probability +14.1 pts (now 73%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- FG · Q4 12:56: Cameron Van Winkle 41 yd FG GOOD — WASH win probability +5.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q4 9:07: Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 24 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +30.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
UTAH made the numbers' call on 6 of 8WASH made the numbers' call on 2 of 4
- Q1 12:58WASH 4th & 5 at WASH 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 75.2% before the snapGo for it75.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call75.2%average punt
- Q1 10:17UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.8%−0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call25.9%average punt
- Q1 6:52WASH 4th & 14 at UTAH 47, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 72.2% before the snapGo for it72.1%−0.319% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call72.4%average punt
- Q1 2:44UTAH 4th & 14 at UTAH 36, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snapGo for it28.8%−0.618% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call29.4%average punt
- Q1 0:07UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.9% before the snapGo for it26.2%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.4%average punt
- Q2 9:12UTAH 4th & 7 at UTAH 23, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snapGo for it19.6%−0.635% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.2%average punt
- Q2 0:00UTAH 4th & 4 at WASH 11, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 27.7% before the snapGo for it27.6%45% to convertField goalTheir call27.2%−0.587% to makePunt19.1%−8.5average punt
- Q3 3:05UTAH 4th & 3 at UTAH 44, down 4Close callPunted · 33.4% before the snapGo for it34.4%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.8%−0.6average punt
- Q4 12:56WASH 4th & 4 at UTAH 23, up 4Close callKicked a field goal · 70.3% before the snapGo for it69.8%47% to convertField goalTheir call69.2%−0.670% to makePunt57.0%−12.8average punt
- Q4 5:09WASH 4th & 8 at UTAH 41, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 52.7% before the snapGo for it52.1%34% to convertField goal48.6%−3.432% to makePuntTheir call49.4%−2.7average punt
- Q4 3:25UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 3, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snapGo for it38.5%−14.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call52.7%average punt
- Q4 0:43UTAH 4th & 15 at WASH 35, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.2%17% to convertField goal10.6%−1.645% to makePunt9.7%−2.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTAH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 1:05WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call72.9%97% to makeGo for two72.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:26WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.3%97% to makeGo for two77.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:52UTAH Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call24.9%97% to makeGo for two24.8%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:17UTAH Touchdown, up 2 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call49.5%97% to makeGo for two49.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q3 5:36WASH Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call65.2%97% to makeGo for two65.0%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 9:07UTAH Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.6%97% to makeGo for two46.4%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4781% → 80%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 2:3720% → 21%
Q1 10:45
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-7
21.0%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the Utah 44 UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (Tyrone Smith) to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
20.8%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tim Patrick, broken up by Jojo McIntoshSimilar
Q1 10:17
4TH & 8
OWN 34
0
20.7%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 54 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 41 yds · 3:1879% → 77%
UTAHDrive 4PUNT11 plays · 34 yds · 3:5623% → 24%
Q1 4:54
2ND & 7
OWN 22
+8
23.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 8 yds to the Utah 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
24.0%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tyler Cooperwood for 4 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q1 2:44
4TH & 14
OWN 36
+2
24.3%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 50 yds , Dante Pettis returns for 2 yds to the Wash 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 5TD6 plays · 84 yds · 1:3575% → 80%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+15
24.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jomon Dotson for 15 yds to the Utah 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+26
24.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 26 yds to the Utah 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+10
23.8%
Browning, Jake pass left slant incomplete to Ross, John thrown to the UTAH9, PENALTY UTAH pass interference (Hatfield, Dominique) 10 yards to the UTAH10, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN WASHINGTON.Similar
Q1 1:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
20.5%
Myles Gaskin run for 10 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 6PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:3822% → 22%
Q1 0:07
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-3
21.7%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 60 yds , Dante Pettis returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 7TD8 plays · 95 yds · 3:3478% → 84%
Q2 14:00
3RD & 7
OWN 8
+11
22.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for 11 yds to the Wash 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
22.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 10 yds to the Wash 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+38
21.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Darrell Daniels for 38 yds to the Utah 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
16.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 16 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 17 yds · 1:5317% → 17%
Q2 10:02
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
17.4%
Williams, Troy pass crossing incomplete to Moeai, Evan thrown to the UTAH21, PENALTY WASHINGTON pass interference (Baker, Budda) 4 yards to the UTAH20, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q2 9:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
17.2%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tim Patrick, broken up by Sidney JonesSimilar
Q2 9:34
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+8
16.9%
Troy Williams run for 8 yds to the Utah 23 UTAH Penalty, Illegal Block (Evan Moeai) declinedSimilar
Q2 9:12
4TH & 7
OWN 23
+3
17.0%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 54 yds , Dante Pettis returns for 3 yds to the Wash 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 9INT3 plays · 1 yds · 0:5484% → 83%
UTAHDrive 10TD8 plays · 19 yds · 3:1418% → 26%
Q2 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
18.3%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 2 yds to the Wash 1Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
17.9%
Troy Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 3 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Azeem Victor) to the Wash 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3077% → 78%
UTAHDrive 12END OF HALF16 plays · 61 yds · 2:3724% → 27%
Q2 0:51
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+6
26.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 6 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q2 0:39
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
26.9%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tim Patrick, broken up by Kevin KingSimilar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+5
27.0%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 5 yds to the Wash 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13TD15 plays · 75 yds · 6:2829% → 52%
Q3 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+30
33.0%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 30 yds to the Wash 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
35.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 16 yds to the Wash 7 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (Sidney Jones) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
34.6%
Joe Williams run for 1 yd to the Wash 1 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Face Mask (0 yards) (Azeem Victor) to the Wash 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
52.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 6 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2955% → 73%
UTAHDrive 15PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 1:5531% → 31%
Q3 4:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
31.3%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 8 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16FG11 plays · 70 yds · 4:4472% → 80%
Q4 14:40
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+3
24.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 3 yds to the Utah 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3823% → 58%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
23.4%
Williams, Troy rush quarterback scramble for 19 yards to the UTAH44, PENALTY UTAH holding (Nowakowski, Nick) 10 yards to the UTAH15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+22
22.8%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 22 yds to the Utah 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:53
3RD & 11
OWN 36
+15
22.2%
Williams, Troy pass right crossing incomplete thrown to the UTAH45 (Gaines, Greg), PENALTY WASHINGTON roughing passer (Wooching, Psalm) 15 yards to the WASHINGTON49, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UTAH.Similar
Q4 10:06
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+8
26.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 8 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
57.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 24 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 34 yds · 3:4954% → 54%
UTAHDrive 19PUNT RETURN TD4 plays · 2 yds · 1:2053% → 17%
Q4 3:25
4TH & 8
OWN 3
+58
16.5%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 55 yds , Dante Pettis returns for 58 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 20DOWNS12 plays · 29 yds · 2:2721% → 12%
Q4 1:40
3RD & 11
50
+20
16.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Tim Patrick for 20 yds to the Wash 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
24.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 4 yds to the Wash 26Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 26
0
25.4%
Demari Simpkins pass incomplete to Raelon Singleton, broken up by Sidney JonesSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 6
OPP 26
-9
22.3%
Troy Williams sacked by Keishawn Bierria for a loss of 9 yards to the Wash 35 Troy Williams fumbled, forced by Keishawn Bierria, recovered by Utah Troy Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 21END OF GAME5 plays · -7 yds · 0:3895% → 95%
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:07
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 24 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+30.8
TD · Q3 8:17
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 6 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
+15
TD · Q3 5:36
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 5 yds for a TD, (Cameron Van Winkle KICK)
-14.1