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ASU

Arizona State 35 at Oregon 54

ORE
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:56 · Ian Wheeler punt for 38 yds , Tim White returns for 2 yds to the ArzSt 47 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the ArzSt 9
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+32.5+16.30−16.3−32.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 148Pregame prior+7.1Home team on offense+13.5Score differential+2.8Garbage-time factor+7.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.1Time remaining−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 4:56: Kalen Ballage run for 15 yds for a TD, (Dillon Sterling-Cole pass to Kalen Ballage for Two-Point Conversion) — ASU win probability +10.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 12:52: Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ASU win probability +14.7 pts (now 30%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:43: Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 53 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +17.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:39: Kalen Ballage pass complete to Kody Kohl for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +16.9 pts (now 23%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:06: Tony Brooks-James run for 58 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +10.4 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 11ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:49ORE 4th & 5 at ASU 48, tied
    Close callWent for it · 69.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    69.7%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    69.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:14ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 34, down 7
    Close callPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:53ORE 4th & 4 at ASU 19, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 72.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.4%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    70.3%−2.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:31ORE 4th & 7 at ASU 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.3
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    66.0%−2.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:31ASU 4th & 15 at ASU 36, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.3%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.6%
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:29ORE 4th & 3 at ASU 13, up 6
    Close callKicked a field goal · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.8%
    50% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.2%−0.5
    85% to make
    Punt
    68.8%−4.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:29ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.8%−1.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:32ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 48, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    75.1%−0.9
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:26ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 49, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.6%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00ORE 4th & 17 at ORE 10, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.0%−1.3
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00ASU 4th & 12 at ASU 44, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 12:01ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 49, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    86.8%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:07ORE 4th & 10 at ASU 23, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 90.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−5.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:56ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 45, up 8
    Close callPunted · 83.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 3:00ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 15, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.3%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 0:28ORE 4th & 6 at ASU 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.5
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−10.6
    average punt
  18. Q4 9:05ASU 4th & 3 at ORE 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    7.7%−0.8
    36% to make
    Punt
    7.2%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 5
  1. Q1 12:11ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:49ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:32ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:11ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:09ORE Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:56ASU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    18.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    17.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:52ASU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    26.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:43ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.2%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:39ASU Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%−0.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 6:06ORE Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 2:36ORE Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.4%−0.4
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
71.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 11 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
71.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 42
0
71.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
71.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
71.1%
Matt Haack punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2TD
3 plays · 79 yds · 1:1171% → 72%
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+7
70.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 7 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 3
OWN 28
0
70.9%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+72
71.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 72 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:2229% → 30%
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
71.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
71.4%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 11 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+35
71.3%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 35 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:11
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
71.1%
Nick Ralston run for 4 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q1 12:11
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
71.1%
Nick Ralston run for 3 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+12
69.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 12 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 2:1770% → 73%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
70.3%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
70.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 12 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
70.7%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 9
OWN 48
0
70.6%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 9
OWN 48
-5
70.3%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 43Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 14
OWN 43
+9
70.2%
Justin Herbert run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 5
OPP 48
+7
70.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+10
70.8%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
72.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 31 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 1:1828% → 27%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
72.0%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 6:14
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
72.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
72.5%
Matt Haack punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 6:14
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+5
72.8%
Haack, Matt punt 47 yards to the ORE24, Nelson, Charles return to the ORE33, PENALTY ORE roughing the kicker 5 yards to the ASU34, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6FG
11 plays · 60 yds · 2:5273% → 75%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+24
72.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 24 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-5
73.4%
OREGON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 40Similar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 15
OWN 40
+12
73.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 12 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+10
73.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 10 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
73.5%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+8
73.6%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
73.6%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+5
73.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 5 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q1 5:45
3RD & 4
OPP 19
0
73.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+36
74.8%
Aidan Schneider 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 2:4225% → 31%
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
75.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 32
-5
75.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+16
75.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 16 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
75.0%
Dillon Sterling-Cole run for 10 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+20
74.4%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 20 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
73.9%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 2:53
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+24
74.0%
Kalen Ballage pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 24 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
73.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Oregn 1Similar
Q1 0:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
69.2%
Dillon Sterling-Cole run for 1 yd for a TD OREGON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8FG
11 plays · 55 yds · 2:4070% → 74%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
70.3%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-7
70.1%
Justin Herbert sacked by Koron Crump for a loss of 7 yards to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+30
69.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 30 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
71.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 12 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+20
71.6%
Tony Brooks-James run for 20 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
72.1%
Justin Herbert run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
-4
72.1%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 12:41
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
71.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+37
74.0%
Aidan Schneider 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
73.0%
Nick Ralston run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+17
72.7%
Nick Ralston run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
72.2%
Dillon Sterling-Cole run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q2 12:31
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-4
72.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole sacked by Troy Dye and Brenden Schooler for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 12:31
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-7
72.7%
Dillon Sterling-Cole sacked by T.J. Daniel for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 12:31
4TH & 15
OWN 36
+6
74.0%
Matt Haack punt for 51 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 6 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10FG
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:5374% → 78%
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
74.4%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 8
OWN 21
+4
74.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 4 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 4
OWN 25
+7
74.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 7 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+23
74.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 23 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
75.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 9 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+16
75.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
76.0%
Justin Herbert run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 5
OPP 15
+3
76.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 3 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 9:22
3RD & 2
OPP 12
-1
75.4%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 3
OPP 13
+30
77.7%
Aidan Schneider 30 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q2 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
78.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
78.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
78.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:29
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
78.8%
Matt Haack punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12PUNT
10 plays · 9 yds · 3:0679% → 78%
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-10
78.7%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Carrington, D., PENALTY ORE holding 10 yards to the ORE30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 20
OWN 30
+8
77.7%
Kani Benoit run for 8 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 12
OWN 38
0
78.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles Nelson, broken up by JoJo WickerSimilar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+10
77.4%
Justin Herbert run for 10 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 4:32
4TH & 2
OWN 48
+2
77.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 17 yds to the OREGON 35 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:32
1ST & 10
50
+4
78.8%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 4:32
2ND & 6
OPP 46
-14
78.9%
Justin Herbert sacked by Viliami Latu for a loss of 14 yards to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 4:32
3RD & 20
OWN 40
+9
77.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Kani Benoit for 9 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q2 1:26
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
77.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 27 yds, downed at the ArzSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
79.4%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+1
79.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kyle Williams for 1 yd to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 1:17
3RD & 9
OWN 25
0
79.9%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass intercepted Kaulana Apelu return for no gain to the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 14TD
4 plays · 32 yds · 0:2481% → 88%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+22
81.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 22 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+6
81.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
87.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 4 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
87.2%
Nick Ralston run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
-8
86.1%
Herbert, Justin pass incomplete to Carrington, D. (Chandler, M.), PENALTY ORE holding 8 yards to the ORE9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 18
OWN 9
-4
85.8%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 5Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 5
0
85.8%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Mundt, broken up by J'Marcus RhodesSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 22
OWN 5
+5
85.2%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 17
OWN 10
0
84.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Tim White at the ArzSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0017% → 15%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-5
83.5%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+3
84.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 44
0
84.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
85.0%
Matt Haack punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Charles Nelson at the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 18MISSED FG
14 plays · 60 yds · 3:5487% → 91%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+9
87.1%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 9 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 1
OWN 26
+5
87.2%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
87.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+8
87.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 8 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
87.7%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 43Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 11
OWN 43
+6
87.5%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 6 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 5
OWN 49
0
87.2%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jalen Brown, broken up by JoJo WickerSimilar
Q3 12:01
4TH & 5
OWN 49
+16
86.5%
Khalil Oliver run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
87.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+3
87.7%
Justin Herbert run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 7
OPP 20
-3
87.7%
Justin Herbert sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 8:16
3RD & 10
OPP 23
0
90.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q3 8:07
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
91.2%
Aidan Schneider 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 77 yds · 3:1111% → 23%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
88.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+5
88.3%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Nick Ralston for 5 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 1
OWN 32
+3
88.2%
Nick Ralston run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
88.2%
Dillon Sterling-Cole run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+4
87.3%
Nick Ralston run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
87.8%
Nick Ralston run for 10 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
87.3%
Nick Ralston run for 2 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+25
87.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 25 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
76.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 15 yds for a TD, (Dillon Sterling-Cole pass to Kalen Ballage for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-3
85.1%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 19Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 13
OWN 19
+19
84.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 19 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
86.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Evan Baylis for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 35Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+5
84.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 5 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 40
+5
85.3%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
85.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Mundt, broken up by Gump HayesSimilar
Q3 4:56
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+2
85.0%
Ian Wheeler punt for 38 yds , Tim White returns for 2 yds to the ArzSt 47 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0016% → 15%
Q3 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
84.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q3 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+1
83.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q3 3:00
3RD & 4
OWN 15
0
84.2%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q3 3:00
4TH & 4
OWN 15
0
84.9%
Matt Haack punt for 40 yds , Darren Carrington II returns for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22FG
6 plays · 49 yds · 1:1788% → 89%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+49
87.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 49 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
88.7%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q3 1:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
87.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
88.7%
Aidan Schneider 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 73 yds · 2:3612% → 30%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
87.8%
Nick Ralston run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
88.2%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST down to Kalen Ballage for 10 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
86.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-5
86.4%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 40
0
87.2%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 40
+20
87.8%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 20 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
85.8%
Ballage, Kalen rush for 2 yards to the ORE38 (Robinson, Tyree), PENALTY ORE substitution infraction 5 yards to the ORE35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 35
+2
84.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+24
84.6%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 24 yds to the Oregn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
69.9%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24TD
6 plays · 64 yds · 2:0977% → 94%
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
76.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 9 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
78.7%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-9
78.4%
Justin Herbert sacked by Tashon Smallwood for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 38Similar
Q4 12:52
2ND & 19
OWN 38
+9
76.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for 9 yds to the Oregn 47Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+53
94.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 53 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25DOWNS
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:387% → 6%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+45
93.4%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 45 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
91.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
92.0%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+5
92.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 9:05
4TH & 3
OPP 39
0
94.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Jalen Harvey, broken up by Tyree RobinsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 26FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
94.8%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+6
94.9%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+45
94.9%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the Oregn 10 Kani Benoit fumbled, forced by Carlos Mendoza, recovered by ArzSt Marcus Ball , return for 45 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 55 yds · 0:426% → 23%
Q4 7:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
94.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q4 6:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
77.4%
Kalen Ballage pass complete to Kody Kohl for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 28TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3386% → 96%
Q4 6:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
85.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny Mundt, broken up by Maurice ChandlerSimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
85.6%
Justin Herbert run for 17 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+58
96.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 58 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29INT
11 plays · 59 yds · 1:034% → 5%
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
95.8%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 9 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+14
95.6%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kyle Williams for 14 yds to the Oregn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
95.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q4 6:06
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
95.6%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Kyle WilliamsSimilar
Q4 6:06
3RD & 10
OPP 43
+13
95.7%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 13 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
95.1%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Nick Ralston for 5 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+12
95.0%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 12 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+6
95.0%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to Kyle Williams for 6 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q4 5:03
2ND & 4
OPP 7
+99
95.0%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass intercepted Tyree Robinson return for 84 yds to the ArzSt 0 OREGON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 30TD
3 plays · 30 yds · 1:1698% → 99%
Q4 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
97.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+14
97.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
99.4%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 31INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 1%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
98.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole sacked by Justin Hollins for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
98.5%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass incomplete to Frederick GammageSimilar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
98.6%
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass intercepted Brenden Schooler return for no gain to the ArzSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
99.4%
Kani Benoit run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-2
99.4%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q4 1:54
2ND & 12
OPP 36
-1
99.4%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:43
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 53 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+17.7
TD · Q4 6:39
Kalen Ballage pass complete to Kody Kohl for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
-16.9
TD · Q4 12:52
Dillon Sterling-Cole pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 9 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-14.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com