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STAN

Stanford 34 at Arizona 10

ARIZ
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 29, 2016 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:12 · Josh Pollack punt for 47 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for no gain to the Stanf 20 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Stanf 23
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+54.0+27.00−27.0−54.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 26Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior+5.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 14:21: Christian McCaffrey run for 45 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +7.3 pts (now 51%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:39: Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 18 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +10.9 pts (now 64%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 6:05: Conrad Ukropina 26 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +11.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:36: Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +13.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 1:28: Josh Pollack 27 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +6.0 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 9 of 11STAN made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 14:53STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:23ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%
    average punt
  3. Q1 12:02STAN 4th & 12 at ARIZ 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.1
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:12ARIZ 4th & 21 at ARIZ 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.4%−0.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:43STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.6%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 12, tied
    Close callPunted · 58.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.5%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:21ARIZ 4th & 15 at STAN 35, down 7
    Close callWent for it · 52.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    52.0%−0.7
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    52.7%
    45% to make
    Punt
    52.2%−0.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:39ARIZ 4th & 1 at ARIZ 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    42.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    40.8%−1.7
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:59STAN 4th & 1 at ARIZ 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.6%−1.0
    56% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−3.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:20STAN 4th & 10 at ARIZ 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.4%−1.7
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−4.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:53ARIZ 4th & 3 at ARIZ 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.3
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:39STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−1.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.3%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:15ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.7%−1.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:05STAN 4th & 9 at ARIZ 9, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 68.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.2%−1.6
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    67.8%
    89% to make
    Punt
    57.2%−10.6
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:28ARIZ 4th & 8 at STAN 10, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−1.0
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.7%
    88% to make
    Punt
    -2.4%−9.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00STAN 4th & 1 at ARIZ 35, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 89.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    89.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    86.6%−2.9
    45% to make
    Punt
    85.6%−3.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:57ARIZ 4th & 13 at ARIZ 32, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.6%−3.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:44STAN 4th & 24 at STAN 31, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−3.5
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:04ARIZ 4th & 12 at ARIZ 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.7%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:04STAN 4th & 5 at STAN 49, up 17
    Close callPunted · 94.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.2%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 3:10ARIZ 4th & 7 at STAN 41, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.8%−0.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 1STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q2 14:21STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:39STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 3:40ARIZ Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 4:36STAN Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 3:10STAN Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.1%−0.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
56.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 29Similar
Q1 14:53
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-4
56.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 4 yards to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 14:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
56.7%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q1 14:53
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
56.7%
Jake Bailey punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
56.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+2
56.9%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 8
OWN 42
-3
56.8%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Bobby Okereke for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 39Similar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 11
OWN 39
+5
56.7%
Josh Pollack punt for 36 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 5 yds to the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3PUNT
10 plays · 25 yds · 0:0043% → 43%
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
56.8%
Keller Chryst sacked by Michael Barton for a loss of 5 yards to the Stanf 25Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+13
56.9%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Michael Rector for 13 yds to the Stanf 38Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 2
OWN 38
+9
56.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
56.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 2
OPP 45
0
56.5%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Michael Rector, broken up by Aiulua FaneneSimilar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+2
56.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
56.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 7 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q1 12:02
2ND & 3
OPP 36
-9
56.5%
Keller Chryst sacked by Jake Matthews and Tellas Jones for a loss of 9 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q1 12:02
3RD & 12
OPP 45
0
56.8%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q1 12:02
4TH & 12
OPP 45
0
57.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0057% → 56%
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
56.9%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+25
56.8%
Brandon Dawkins run for 25 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
57.1%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & 8
OWN 33
-8
57.1%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Sean Barton and Solomon Thomas for a loss of 8 yards to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 7:12
3RD & 16
OWN 25
0
56.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 16
OWN 25
-5
56.3%
ARIZONA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 20Similar
Q1 7:12
4TH & 21
OWN 20
0
56.3%
Josh Pollack punt for 47 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for no gain to the Stanf 20 STANFORD Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
56.9%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 6
OWN 27
0
56.7%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
57.2%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 10 yds to the Stanf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
56.6%
Keller Chryst sacked by Paul Magloire Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 36Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+6
56.8%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 5
OWN 42
0
57.1%
Jake Bailey punt for 55 yds, downed at the Ariz 3Similar
Q1 4:43
3RD & 5
OWN 42
0
56.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:1257% → 56%
Q1 1:12
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
57.3%
Samajie Grant run for 5 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q1 1:12
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+3
57.2%
Samajie Grant run for 3 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 11
+1
56.6%
Samajie Grant run for 1 yd to the Ariz 12Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 12
0
56.3%
Josh Pollack punt for 33 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0051% → 51%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
49.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 45 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8DOWNS
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
50.8%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
51.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+43
50.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 43 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
53.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cam Denson for 5 yds to the Stanf 25Similar
Q2 14:21
2ND & 5
OPP 25
+3
53.4%
Samajie Grant run for a loss of 24 yards to the Stanf 46 Shun BrownSimilar
Q2 14:21
3RD & 26
OPP 46
+11
51.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 11 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 14:21
4TH & 15
OPP 35
0
50.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 2:5251% → 64%
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
48.7%
Bryce Love run for 30 yds to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+3
47.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 3 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 11:31
2ND & 7
OPP 32
+6
47.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 11:31
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+3
47.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:31
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
47.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+18
36.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 18 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10TD
17 plays · 75 yds · 4:5939% → 47%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
39.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
39.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+13
38.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 13 yds to the Ariz 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
40.3%
Samajie Grant run for 9 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-15
40.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 16
OWN 34
0
39.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 16
OWN 34
+5
38.6%
STANFORD Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 8:39
3RD & 11
OWN 39
+10
39.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 10 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q2 8:39
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+3
40.6%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-5
41.0%
ARIZONA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 47Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 15
OWN 47
-15
40.2%
ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the Ariz 32Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 30
OWN 32
+15
39.0%
STANFORD Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+14
40.9%
Samajie Grant run for 14 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
41.0%
Samajie Grant run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-3
41.5%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 38Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 9
OPP 38
+38
47.3%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Trey Griffey for 38 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0056% → 57%
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
44.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
43.7%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 6 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
43.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 5 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+2
42.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 3:40
2ND & 8
OWN 41
0
42.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+3
43.1%
Keller Chryst pass intercepted Dane Cruikshank return for 3 yds to the Ariz 49 Dane Cruikshank fumbled, forced by Nate Herbig, recovered by Stanf Chris Harrell , return for 15 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 12FG
11 plays · 21 yds · 1:2061% → 62%
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
38.9%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+10
39.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the Ariz 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:40
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
38.3%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 5 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 34
0
37.9%
Keller Chryst pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+4
39.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 4 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
40.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Ariz 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
38.4%
Team pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OPP 28
0
38.5%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton SchultzSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OPP 28
0
39.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton Schultz, broken up by - FlanniganfowlesSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 10
OPP 28
+45
38.4%
Conrad Ukropina 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
38.5%
Samajie Grant run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 1:0737% → 35%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
37.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
37.1%
Samajie Grant run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+4
36.2%
Brandon Dawkins run for 4 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q3 13:53
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
35.1%
Josh Pollack punt for 53 yds, downed at the Stanf 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
36.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
36.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 28Similar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+3
35.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 13:39
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
36.0%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for no gain to the Stanf 31Similar
Q3 13:39
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
37.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 57 yds , Nate Phillips returns for no gain to the Ariz 12 Nate Phillips fumbled, recovered by Ariz Nate PhillipsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 12
0
32.7%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 12
0
32.6%
Anu Solomon pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OWN 12
-2
31.7%
Anu Solomon sacked by Joey Alfieri and Harrison Phillips for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 10Similar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 12
OWN 10
0
31.4%
Josh Pollack punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Ariz 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 4:0269% → 79%
Q3 10:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
31.4%
Keller Chryst run for 3 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+4
31.4%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 4 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & 3
OPP 35
+29
31.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 29 yds to the Ariz 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
30.8%
Bryce Love run for no gain to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-5
30.8%
STANFORD Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 11Similar
Q3 10:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+2
31.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Ariz 9Similar
Q3 10:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
31.7%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q3 6:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
+26
20.7%
Conrad Ukropina 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 18FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.0%
Anu Solomon pass incomplete to Cam DensonSimilar
Q3 6:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
24.7%
Anu Solomon run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 23 Anu Solomon fumbled, recovered by Stanf Mike TylerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
3 plays · 23 yds · 1:1582% → 95%
Q3 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+13
18.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the Ariz 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+4
18.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Ariz 6Similar
Q3 4:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
4.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 20FG
9 plays · 65 yds · 3:039% → 17%
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
9.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 24 yds to the Ariz 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+18
10.3%
Samajie Grant run for 3 yds to the ARIZONA 48 for a 1ST down STANFORD Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Stanf 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
11.6%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+21
11.4%
Samajie Grant run for 21 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
11.7%
Samajie Grant run for 3 yds to the Stanf 9Similar
Q3 4:31
2ND & 7
OPP 9
-1
11.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 10Similar
Q3 4:31
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
11.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the Stanf 10Similar
Q3 1:28
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
17.1%
Josh Pollack 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 34 yds · 1:2390% → 91%
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+25
10.2%
Bryce Love run for 25 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
9.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+8
9.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Francis Owusu for 8 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q3 1:23
3RD & 2
OPP 36
+1
9.2%
Bryce Love run for 1 yd to the Ariz 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 35
0
9.4%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete, broken up by Dane CruikshankSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
13.3%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Casey Toohill for a loss of 5 yards to the Ariz 30Similar
Q4 14:57
2ND & 15
OWN 30
0
12.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:57
3RD & 15
OWN 30
+2
12.7%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 14:57
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
12.7%
Josh Pollack punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
8.1%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 10 yds to the Stanf 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-7
7.5%
Keller Chryst sacked by Isaiah Hayes for a loss of 7 yards to the Stanf 38Similar
Q4 13:44
2ND & 17
OWN 38
-2
7.9%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 19
OWN 36
-5
8.5%
STANFORD Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 31Similar
Q4 13:44
3RD & 24
OWN 31
0
8.8%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 24
OWN 31
+16
8.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 44 yds , Nate Phillips returns for 16 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
8.3%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the Ariz 43Similar
Q4 11:04
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
8.3%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 45Similar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 6
OWN 45
-6
8.3%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Solomon Thomas for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 39Similar
Q4 11:04
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+24
7.7%
Josh Pollack punt for 41 yds , Christian McCaffrey returns for 24 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2695% → 95%
Q4 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
5.3%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-1
5.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 43Similar
Q4 9:30
3RD & 11
OWN 43
+6
5.5%
Bryce Love run for 6 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q4 8:04
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
4.9%
Jake Bailey punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26INT
6 plays · 39 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+9
5.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 9 yds to the Ariz 24Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 1
OWN 24
+2
5.2%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
5.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Trey Griffey for 17 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
5.4%
Samajie Grant run for 9 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+2
5.9%
Samajie Grant run for 2 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+35
5.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass intercepted Ben Edwards return for 35 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 27TD
7 plays · 39 yds · 3:0896% → 99%
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
3.6%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+11
3.5%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 11 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
3.5%
Bryce Love run for 2 yds to the Ariz 23Similar
Q4 6:18
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+15
3.5%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive pass interference (15 Yards) to the Ariz 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
3.5%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Bryce LoveSimilar
Q4 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
3.5%
Bryce Love run for 3 yds to the Ariz 5Similar
Q4 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.6%
Keller Chryst pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 5 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28DOWNS
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
0.7%
Khalil Tate run for 19 yds to the Ariz 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
0.8%
Branden Leon run for 5 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+7
0.8%
Branden Leon run for 7 yds to the Stanf 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
0.8%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:10
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
0.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Cam Denson, broken up by Frank BuncomSimilar
Q4 3:10
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+3
0.8%
Branden Leon run for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 3:10
4TH & 7
OPP 41
+5
0.8%
Branden Leon run for 5 yds to the Stanf 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
0.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 1 yd to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+8
0.4%
Cameron Scarlett run for 8 yds to the Stanf 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:36
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-13.2
FG · Q3 6:05
Conrad Ukropina 26 yd FG GOOD
-11.1
TD · Q2 8:39
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 18 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-10.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com