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CAL

California 24 at USC 45

USC
2016 · Week 9 · Oct 27, 2016 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 13:26 · Chris Tilbey punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 109Pregame prior+19.3Home team on offense+16.8Score differential+8.4Garbage-time factor+7.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.2Blowout margin−0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:07: Deontay Burnett 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick) — USC win probability +4.2 pts (now 93%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:55: Tre Watson 22 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +5.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:28: Darreus Rogers 20 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick) — USC win probability +4.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:15: Davis Webb 1 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick) — CAL win probability +8.2 pts (now 16%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:59: Ronald Jones II 37 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick) — USC win probability +6.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 12:35CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:47CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:30USC 4th & 5 at CAL 45, up 14
    Close callPunted · 86.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    85.4%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    86.1%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:17CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 17, down 14
    Close callPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.3%−0.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:16CAL 4th & 6 at CAL 42, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.7%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:54CAL 4th & 7 at USC 10, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.8%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    12.9%
    88% to make
    Punt
    10.3%−2.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:26USC 4th & 11 at USC 33, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.9%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 3:09CAL 4th & 5 at USC 35, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    5.3%−0.5
    45% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:42CAL 4th & 1 at USC 17, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    0.7%−0.2
    80% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−1.0
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:29CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 36, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%−0.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:46USC 4th & 2 at CAL 17, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    98.0%−0.3
    80% to make
    Punt
    96.5%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:40USC 4th & 9 at CAL 14, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.5%
    84% to make
    Punt
    97.6%−1.0
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:42CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 43, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 9:34USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:34USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:07USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:55CAL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:28USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 9:15CAL Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:59USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:18USC Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 13:12CAL Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 36 yds · 2:1014% → 14%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+14
86.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 14 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
86.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 4 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 14:01
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+9
86.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 9 yds to the Cal 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
86.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q1 13:29
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
85.9%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q1 12:57
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+5
85.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jack Austin for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
85.6%
Davis Webb punt for 43 yds, downed at the USC 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 2:2686% → 86%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+61
85.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 61 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
85.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 11:28
2ND & 5
OPP 22
+6
85.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 6 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
85.6%
JuJu Smith-Schuster run for 5 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+4
85.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q1 10:28
3RD & 1
OPP 7
+4
85.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
86.2%
Darreus Rogers 3 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3014% → 14%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
85.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q1 9:07
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
85.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q1 9:02
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
85.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q1 8:47
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+1
85.8%
Dylan Klumph punt for 54 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 1 yd to the USC 10 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (5 Yards) to the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
10 plays · 95 yds · 4:0286% → 88%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+7
85.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 12Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 3
OWN 12
+13
85.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 13 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
85.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 17 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
85.9%
Adoree' Jackson run for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
Q1 6:53
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+11
85.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 11 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
85.9%
Sam Darnold run for 15 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
85.9%
Deontay Burnett run for 15 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-10
85.9%
USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (Nico Falah) to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 5:03
1ST & 20
OPP 26
+10
85.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 10 yds to the Cal 16Similar
Q1 4:34
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+16
88.1%
Ronald Jones II 16 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5INT
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:1613% → 13%
Q1 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
87.1%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 24
+16
87.0%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Cal 25 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+27
86.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 12 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Marvell Tell III) to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
86.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 35Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
86.9%
Davis Webb pass intercepted Marvell Tell III return for no gain to the USC 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
8 plays · 48 yds · 2:1288% → 88%
Q1 2:42
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+8
87.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 8 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 2
OWN 15
0
87.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q1 2:19
3RD & 2
OWN 15
+12
87.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the USC 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+23
87.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:17
1ST & 10
50
+5
88.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 0:41
2ND & 5
OPP 45
0
88.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 0:37
3RD & 5
OPP 45
0
88.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 0:30
4TH & 5
OPP 45
0
87.9%
Chris Tilbey punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5413% → 13%
Q1 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
87.4%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 7
OWN 11
0
87.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 7
OWN 11
+6
87.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 6 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q2 14:17
4TH & 1
OWN 17
+32
87.4%
Dylan Klumph punt for 43 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 32 yds to the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
6 plays · 28 yds · 2:0289% → 93%
Q2 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
88.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 13:41
2ND & 2
OPP 20
-5
88.6%
USC Penalty, False Start (Darreus Rogers) to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 13:23
2ND & 7
OPP 25
0
88.7%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 7
OPP 25
+9
88.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 9 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
88.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+13
93.0%
Deontay Burnett 13 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:337% → 7%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+1
92.6%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Cal 18Similar
Q2 11:24
2ND & 9
OWN 18
+10
92.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 10 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
92.6%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 10 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
92.6%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, False Start (Addison Ooms) to the Cal 33Similar
Q2 10:13
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+4
93.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+5
92.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 5 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 9:23
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
93.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q2 9:16
4TH & 6
OWN 42
0
93.1%
Dylan Klumph punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FUMBLE
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:5994% → 94%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+36
94.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 36 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
94.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q2 8:09
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+25
94.2%
Sam Darnold sacked by DeVante Wilson for a loss of 11 yards to the USC 47 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by Cal Kanawai Noa , return for 25 yds to the USC 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11TD
3 plays · 22 yds · 0:098% → 13%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
92.2%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q2 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
92.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Tre WatsonSimilar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+22
87.2%
Tre Watson 22 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12FUMBLE
7 plays · 56 yds · 2:0088% → 89%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
88.2%
Sam Darnold run for 8 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q2 7:05
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+42
88.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 42 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:39
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-5
88.9%
USC Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 15
OPP 30
+5
88.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
89.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:39
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-6
89.0%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 19 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by Cal DeVante WilsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:3712% → 14%
Q2 5:31
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
88.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 5:08
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+23
88.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 23 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-15
87.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Cal 27Similar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 25
OWN 27
+24
88.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 24 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+4
87.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+32
87.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 32 yds to the USC 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
86.6%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the USC 8Similar
Q2 2:40
2ND & 5
OPP 8
-2
86.8%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 10Similar
Q2 1:57
3RD & 7
OPP 10
0
87.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 7
OPP 10
+27
86.2%
Matt Anderson 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 1:0588% → 92%
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
87.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+11
87.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 11 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+23
88.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 23 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
88.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+6
88.4%
Sam Darnold run for 6 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+9
87.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 9 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
92.2%
Darreus Rogers 20 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15FUMBLE
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q2 0:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
90.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 3 yds Melquise Stovall fumbled, forced by Uchenna Nwosu, recovered by USC Ajene HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:0792% → 92%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+25
92.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 25 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-8
91.8%
Wyatt Schmidt run for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 24 Wyatt Schmidt fumbled, recovered by USC Wyatt SchmidtSimilar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 18
OPP 24
+42
92.4%
Matt Boermeester 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2592% → 93%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
91.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q3 14:21
2ND & 8
OWN 36
-5
93.2%
USC Penalty, False Start (Nico Falah) to the USC 31Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+2
93.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 2 yds to the USC 33Similar
Q3 13:33
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
93.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q3 13:26
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
93.2%
Chris Tilbey punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Vic Wharton III at the Cal 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 3:398% → 16%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
92.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q3 12:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+19
92.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 19 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
91.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 8 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 11:50
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+8
91.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
91.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 6 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 11:01
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+5
90.9%
USC Penalty, Defensive Offside (Uchenna Nwosu) to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:42
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-2
90.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 12
OPP 27
+16
91.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 16 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
92.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the USC 4Similar
Q3 9:26
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+3
92.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the USC 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
84.2%
Davis Webb 1 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
6 plays · 66 yds · 2:0288% → 96%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
87.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+5
88.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
88.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 5 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 7:15
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+10
88.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 10 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
95.7%
Ronald Jones II 37 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20DOWNS
13 plays · 60 yds · 3:345% → 5%
Q3 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
94.6%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Cal 6Similar
Q3 6:23
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+9
94.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 9 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
94.7%
USC Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Iman Marshall) to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
94.5%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 5:31
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+12
94.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 12 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
94.5%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q3 4:54
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
94.7%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:26
3RD & 8
50
+10
94.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 10 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
94.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+5
94.8%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 5
OPP 35
0
94.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q3 3:09
4TH & 5
OPP 35
0
94.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4096% → 99%
Q3 2:58
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
96.3%
JuJu Smith-Schuster run for 20 yds to the CALIFORNIA 45 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (Khari Vanderbilt) to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
96.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 2:29
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+7
96.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 7 yds to the Cal 21Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+4
96.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
99.4%
Daniel Imatorbhebhe 17 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Matt Boermeester Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 2:521% → 4%
Q3 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
99.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 12 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
98.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 6 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 0:40
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
99.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 42Similar
Q3 0:20
3RD & 5
OWN 42
+15
99.0%
USC Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:10
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
99.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 5 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+12
98.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 12 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:33
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-5
98.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Illegal Motion (Jordan Duncan) to the USC 31Similar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 15
OPP 31
+6
98.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 6 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+5
98.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q4 14:12
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-15
99.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Personal Foul (Steven Moore) to the USC 35Similar
Q4 13:51
3RD & 19
OPP 35
+18
98.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 18 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 13:42
4TH & 1
OPP 17
+1
99.0%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
98.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q4 13:22
2ND & 10
OPP 16
0
99.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 13:12
3RD & 10
OPP 16
+16
96.1%
Melquise Stovall 16 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Matt Anderson Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23INT
4 plays · 21 yds · 1:1598% → 98%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
97.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 6 yds to the Cal 49Similar
Q4 12:17
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+15
97.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 15 yds to the Cal 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+27
97.8%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Luke Rubenzer return for 27 yds to the Cal 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24DOWNS
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:093% → 3%
Q4 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
96.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 6
OWN 34
0
96.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q4 11:10
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+2
96.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 2 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q4 10:29
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
97.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for no gain to the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25FG
15 plays · 22 yds · 7:4098% → 100%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
97.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 9:47
2ND & 6
OPP 32
+4
97.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 9:05
3RD & 2
OPP 28
+3
97.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-8
98.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Cal 23 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 7:58
1ST & 18
OPP 33
+5
98.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 13
OPP 28
+11
98.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 2
OPP 17
0
98.2%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Cal 17Similar
Q4 5:46
4TH & 2
OPP 17
+2
98.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the Cal 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
98.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q4 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 11
-5
98.5%
USC Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Cal 16Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+2
98.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 9
OPP 14
0
98.6%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Cal 14Similar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+32
99.7%
Matt Boermeester 32 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26END OF GAME
15 plays · 67 yds · 2:321% → 1%
Q4 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
99.4%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Ineligible Downfield on Pass (-5 Yards) to the Cal 20Similar
Q4 2:15
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+9
99.5%
Billy McCrary III run for 9 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 1:48
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+11
99.4%
Billy McCrary III run for 11 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
99.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 3 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Vic Wharton IIISimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
99.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q4 0:42
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+14
99.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 14 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
99.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 0:25
2ND & 10
OPP 43
-1
99.4%
Billy McCrary III run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 44Similar
Q4 0:16
3RD & 11
OPP 44
+13
99.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jack Austin for 13 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+19
99.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jack Austin for 19 yds to the USC 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
99.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Duncan for 2 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q4 0:01
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+2
99.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Billy McCrary III for 2 yds to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:15
Davis Webb 1 Yd Run (Matt Anderson Kick)
-8.2
TD · Q3 6:59
Ronald Jones II 37 Yd Run (Matt Boermeester Kick)
+6.9
TD · Q2 7:55
Tre Watson 22 Yd pass from Davis Webb (Matt Anderson Kick)
-5.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com