Try the model
UTAH

Utah 52 at UCLA 45

UCLA
2016 · Week 8 · Oct 22, 2016 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadUTAH aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreUTAH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 4:14 · Stefan Flintoft punt for 51 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 7 yds to the UCLA 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.5+19.30−19.3−38.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 143Pregame prior+7.6Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.9Garbage-time factor−1.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 9:18: Troy Williams 2 Yd Run (Troy Williams Pass to Demari Simpkins for Two-Point Conversion) — UTAH win probability +20.8 pts (now 58%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 9:01: Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 75 yds for a TD, (Andrew Strauch KICK) — UCLA win probability +17.5 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 0:49: Joe Williams run for 64 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +23.5 pts (now 71%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:28: Joe Williams run for 55 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK) — UTAH win probability +20.6 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UTAH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:38: Mike Fafaul pass complete to Austin Roberts for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Strauch KICK) — UCLA win probability +24.0 pts (now 30%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 9UTAH made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:25UCLA 4th & 7 at UCLA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.5%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:38UTAH 4th & 18 at UTAH 17, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.7
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 1:42UTAH 4th & 5 at UCLA 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−2.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:56UTAH 4th & 25 at UCLA 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.5%−1.3
    7% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−2.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:38UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.2%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:38UTAH 4th & 2 at UTAH 37, down 4
    Close callPunted · 31.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.9%−0.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:16UCLA 4th & 1 at UTAH 47, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    67.5%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:31UCLA 4th & 10 at UTAH 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    58.4%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:28UTAH 4th & 7 at UCLA 40, up 3
    Close callPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    40.3%−0.8
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.4%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:00UTAH 4th & 9 at UCLA 27, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.4%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    36.9%−6.3
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:16UTAH 4th & 7 at UCLA 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.9%−0.5
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:14UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%−5.0
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.9%
    average punt
  13. Q3 1:39UTAH 4th & 17 at UCLA 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 40.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−4.4
    14% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.6%
    60% to make
    Punt
    29.4%−11.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 13:44UCLA 4th & 2 at UTAH 22, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%−1.2
    72% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−9.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 11:51UTAH 4th & 5 at UTAH 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.7%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    70.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:39UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 19, down 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.9 ptsPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.5%−4.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 5:42UCLA 4th & 5 at UTAH 5, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    9.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    4.0%−5.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:05UTAH 4th & 6 at UTAH 24, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.9%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    94.5%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:40UTAH 4th & 8 at UTAH 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.2%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:05UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 23, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.9%−3.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6UTAH made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:48UTAH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 11:38UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 9:48UCLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 6:08UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 4:39UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 6:55UTAH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:30UCLA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 9:18UTAH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 9:01UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:49UTAH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:28UTAH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.7%−0.7
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 4:38UCLA Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.1%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCLADrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0573% → 72%
Q1 14:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
73.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 14:19
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
72.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+5
72.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 5 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 13:25
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+11
72.4%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 42 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 11 yds to the Utah 41 Boobie Hobbs fumbled, recovered by Utah Mackay DunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 3TD
4 plays · 59 yds · 1:2228% → 30%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+42
72.2%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 42 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
71.8%
Cory Butler-Byrd run for 4 yds to the UCLA 13Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+10
71.5%
Joe Williams run for 10 yds to the UCLA 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
70.5%
Joe Williams 3 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 1:4071% → 71%
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
70.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 6 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 11:25
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+8
70.6%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (8 Yards) to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
70.5%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
70.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Iese for 16 yds to the Utah 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
70.0%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 42Similar
Q1 10:22
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+15
69.9%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Utah 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
69.9%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
Q1 10:08
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
69.8%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Bolu OlorunfunmiSimilar
Q1 9:54
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+16
69.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 5 yds to the Utah 22 for a 1ST down UTAH Penalty, Roughing Passer (11 Yards) to the Utah 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:48
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
71.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi 11 Yd pass from Mike Fafaul (Andrew Strauch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · -8 yds · 1:5230% → 30%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
70.4%
UTAH Penalty, Face Mask (12 yards) (-12 Yards) to the Utah 13Similar
Q1 8:49
1ST & 22
OWN 13
0
69.9%
Cory Butler-Byrd run for no gain to the Utah 13Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+4
69.8%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 4 yds to the Utah 17Similar
Q1 7:52
3RD & 18
OWN 17
0
69.9%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tyrone SmithSimilar
Q1 7:38
4TH & 18
OWN 17
+3
69.8%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 52 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 3 yds to the UCLA 20 UCLA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UCLA 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6TD
7 plays · 76 yds · 1:0769% → 73%
Q1 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+12
69.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 12 yds to the UCLA 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
69.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 4 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+27
69.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Iese for 27 yds to the Utah 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+10
70.2%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 10 yds to the Utah 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:15
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
70.1%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
70.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+13
72.8%
Nate Iese 13 Yd pass from Mike Fafaul (Andrew Strauch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 7FUMBLE
3 plays · -9 yds · 0:2029% → 29%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-4
71.4%
Troy Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Utah 19Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 14
OWN 19
-5
71.4%
Troy Williams sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 5 yards to the Utah 14 Troy Williams fumbled, recovered by UCLA Takkarist McKinley , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:2173% → 75%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+7
72.7%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Iese for 7 yds to the Utah 7Similar
Q1 4:46
2ND & 3
OPP 7
0
72.7%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
75.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi 7 Yd Run (Andrew Strauch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 9MISSED FG
8 plays · 47 yds · 2:4826% → 26%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
74.3%
Troy Williams pass complete to Demari Simpkins for 9 yds to the Utah 36Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+9
73.7%
Joe Williams run for 9 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+24
73.8%
Troy Williams run for 24 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
73.0%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:30
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+5
73.1%
Troy Williams run for 5 yds to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 2:00
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
73.6%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+44
74.3%
Andy Phillips 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0675% → 75%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
75.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
74.9%
Mike Fafaul pass intercepted Jordan Fogal return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 11FG
7 plays · 22 yds · 2:2626% → 27%
Q1 1:22
1ST & 10
50
+11
73.6%
Troy Williams pass complete to Cory Butler-Byrd for 11 yds to the UCLA 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:50
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+26
73.6%
Joe Williams run for 26 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:13
1ST & 25
OPP 28
0
73.5%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 25
OPP 28
+11
73.7%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 11 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 14
OPP 17
-10
74.4%
UTAH Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 24
OPP 27
-1
74.5%
Troy Williams sacked by Deon Hollins for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 13:56
4TH & 25
OPP 28
+45
73.0%
Andy Phillips 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:0772% → 71%
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
72.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-2
72.0%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Brandon Stephens for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 23Similar
Q2 13:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+4
71.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 4 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 12:38
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
71.0%
Adam Searl punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Boobie Hobbs at the Utah 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4728% → 27%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
72.3%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the Utah 31Similar
Q2 11:54
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+2
72.2%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q2 10:50
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+4
72.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Cory Butler-Byrd for 4 yds to the Utah 37Similar
Q2 10:38
4TH & 2
OWN 37
0
72.6%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 2:1872% → 73%
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
71.8%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:24
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+11
71.7%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 11 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
72.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
71.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 5 yds to the UCLA 35Similar
Q2 9:10
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+9
71.7%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 9 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
73.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:50
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+2
72.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 2 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 8
OWN 46
+7
72.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Alex Van Dyke for 7 yds to the Utah 47Similar
Q2 8:16
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-1
72.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 15TD
3 plays · 52 yds · 1:0527% → 38%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
72.7%
Joe Williams run for 7 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 3
OPP 45
+2
72.1%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q2 6:55
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+43
62.1%
Joe Williams 43 Yd Run (Andy Phillips Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 27 yds · 1:1165% → 65%
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
65.3%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:37
2ND & 10
OWN 28
0
64.9%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+27
64.0%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 27 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
67.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the Utah 45Similar
Q2 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 45
0
67.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q2 5:38
3RD & 10
OPP 45
0
65.5%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:31
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
64.5%
Adam Searl punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Boobie Hobbs at the Utah 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 48 yds · 1:5336% → 38%
Q2 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+2
64.3%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the Utah 14Similar
Q2 4:34
2ND & 8
OWN 14
+43
64.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Cory Butler-Byrd for 43 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
60.5%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Raelon SingletonSimilar
Q2 4:12
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+3
60.7%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 7
OPP 40
0
60.5%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 7
OPP 40
0
61.8%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 27 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18FUMBLE
2 plays · 13 yds · 0:1364% → 64%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+13
63.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 13 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
63.9%
Mike Fafaul run for 9 yds to the UCLA 35 Mike Fafaul fumbled, forced by Chase Hansen, recovered by UtahSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 19INT
5 plays · 22 yds · 1:4441% → 44%
Q2 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
59.1%
Troy Williams pass complete to Evan Moeai for 21 yds to the UCLA 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
58.9%
Joe Williams run for 4 yds to the UCLA 10Similar
Q2 1:12
2ND & 6
OPP 10
-3
56.1%
Troy Williams sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 13 Troy Williams fumbled, forced by Takkarist McKinley, recovered by Utah Troy Williams , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+9
56.1%
Troy Williams pass intercepted Jayon Brown return for 9 yds to the UCLA 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0660% → 60%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
60.2%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:52
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
60.0%
Mike Fafaul pass intercepted Brian Allen return for no gain to the UCLA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 21END OF HALF
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:4045% → 49%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
55.0%
Troy Williams run for 1 yd to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 9
OPP 27
0
55.0%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tyrone SmithSimilar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
55.5%
Troy Williams run for no gain to the UCLA 27Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+45
51.0%
Andy Phillips 45 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 22TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:2055% → 71%
Q3 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
55.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 12 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
56.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
55.7%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:30
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+14
54.2%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 14 yds to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
58.2%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 11
50
+50
71.0%
Nate Iese 50 Yd pass from Mike Fafaul (Andrew Strauch Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 23TD
10 plays · 78 yds · 3:5732% → 58%
Q3 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
68.2%
Joe Williams run for 6 yds to the Utah 28Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+14
67.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Siaosi Wilson for 14 yds to the Utah 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
66.0%
Cory Butler-Byrd run for no gain to the Utah 42Similar
Q3 12:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
66.5%
Troy Williams pass complete to Raelon Singleton for 11 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+26
64.8%
Joe Williams run for 26 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+11
63.2%
Joe Williams run for 11 yds to the UCLA 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
63.0%
Zack Moss run for 5 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q3 10:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
63.0%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 9:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
42.2%
Troy Williams 2 Yd Run (Troy Williams Pass to Demari Simpkins for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 24TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:1247% → 64%
Q3 9:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
46.8%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
64.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 75 yds for a TD, (Andrew Strauch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 25PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 3:2039% → 40%
Q3 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
61.4%
Joe Williams run for 6 yds to the Utah 23Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+8
60.6%
Joe Williams run for 8 yds to the Utah 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
60.4%
Troy Williams pass incomplete to Tyrone SmithSimilar
Q3 7:09
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
60.9%
Zack Moss run for 3 yds to the Utah 34Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+15
61.2%
UCLA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Utah 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
57.0%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
57.5%
Cory Butler-Byrd run for 5 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q3 5:24
3RD & 5
OPP 46
-2
56.7%
Troy Williams sacked by Jayon Brown for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 48Similar
Q3 5:16
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
60.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 42 yds, downed at the UCLA 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 26PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5663% → 60%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 6
0
63.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:03
2ND & 10
OWN 6
0
62.9%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 10
OWN 6
-2
60.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 4Similar
Q3 4:14
4TH & 12
OWN 4
+7
59.5%
Stefan Flintoft punt for 51 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 7 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 27FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0545% → 49%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
54.9%
Troy Williams pass complete to Cory Butler-Byrd for 11 yds to the UCLA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+16
54.8%
Joe Williams run for 16 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
52.7%
Zack Moss run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 22Similar
Q3 2:00
2ND & 11
OPP 22
-6
52.8%
Troy Williams sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 28Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 17
OPP 28
0
56.9%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:39
4TH & 17
OPP 28
+46
51.5%
Andy Phillips 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 28INT
3 plays · 4 yds · 0:2552% → 52%
Q3 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Theo Howard for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
52.2%
Mike Fafaul pass intercepted Brian Allen return for no gain to the Utah 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 29TD
1 play · 64 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
28.7%
Joe Williams run for 64 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 30FG
9 plays · 43 yds · 1:5429% → 38%
Q3 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
29.4%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:31
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
29.1%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:24
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+20
27.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 20 yds to the Utah 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
32.1%
Mike Fafaul run for 15 yds to the Utah 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
33.8%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-1
33.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Ishmael Adams for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 31Similar
Q4 13:50
3RD & 11
OPP 31
+9
28.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Bolu Olorunfunmi for 9 yds to the Utah 22Similar
Q4 13:44
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
37.5%
Andrew Strauch 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 31PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3770% → 69%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
30.4%
Joe Williams run for 7 yds to the Utah 32Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
29.0%
Joe Williams run for no gain to the Utah 32Similar
Q4 12:30
3RD & 3
OWN 32
-2
29.4%
Troy Williams pass complete to Cory Butler-Byrd for a loss of 2 yards to the Utah 30Similar
Q4 11:51
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+5
31.4%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 55 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 5 yds to the UCLA 35 UCLA Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UCLA 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 32PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:5633% → 29%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+7
32.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 7 yds to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 3
OWN 17
+2
32.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q4 10:50
3RD & 1
OWN 19
0
31.0%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 1
OWN 19
+8
29.3%
Adam Searl punt for 44 yds , Boobie Hobbs returns for 8 yds to the Utah 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 33TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q4 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
8.7%
Joe Williams run for 55 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 34INT
13 plays · 61 yds · 4:1813% → 8%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+15
12.5%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Iese for 15 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
13.8%
Mike Fafaul sacked by Hunter Dimick for a loss of 5 yards to the UCLA 44Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 15
OWN 44
+7
11.2%
Mike Fafaul run for 7 yds to the Utah 49Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+11
11.6%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Iese for 11 yds to the Utah 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
10.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the Utah 33Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+10
11.2%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 10 yds to the Utah 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
10.9%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Nate Iese for 7 yds to the Utah 16Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+6
9.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 6 yds to the Utah 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
9.6%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
8.9%
Mike Fafaul run for 3 yds to the Utah 7Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
8.4%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 2 yds to the Utah 5Similar
Q4 5:42
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.0%
Mike Fafaul pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Fogal return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 35PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:3094% → 95%
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
5.7%
Joe Williams run for 2 yds to the Utah 22Similar
Q4 5:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
5.5%
Troy Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:05
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+35
5.1%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 46 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 35 yds to the Utah 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 36TD
3 plays · 35 yds · 0:227% → 30%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+15
6.7%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Darren Andrews for 15 yds to the Utah 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
6.4%
UTAH Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (7 Yards) to the Utah 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
30.3%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Austin Roberts for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Strauch KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTAHDrive 37PUNT
11 plays · 14 yds · 3:2087% → 94%
Q4 4:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
13.2%
Joe Williams run for 5 yds to the Utah 40Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+4
11.1%
Joe Williams run for 4 yds to the Utah 44Similar
Q4 3:02
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+3
10.4%
Joe Williams run for 3 yds to the Utah 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
8.5%
Joe Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 46Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+4
7.1%
Joe Williams run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 7
50
-1
5.0%
Zack Moss run for a loss of 1 yard to the Utah 49Similar
Q4 0:40
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
5.9%
Mitch Wishnowsky punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ishmael Adams at the UCLA 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 38END OF GAME
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:3510% → 11%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+9
10.1%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 9 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 23
-6
11.0%
Mike Fafaul sacked by Filipo Mokofisi for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 17Similar
Q4 0:13
3RD & 7
OWN 17
+6
9.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 6 yds to the UCLA 23Similar
Q4 0:05
4TH & 1
OWN 23
+4
9.8%
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 4 yds to the UCLA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
10.6%
Mike Fafaul pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:38
Mike Fafaul pass complete to Austin Roberts for 13 yds for a TD, (Andrew Strauch KICK)
+24
TD · Q3 0:49
Joe Williams run for 64 yds for a TD, (Andy Phillips KICK)
-23.5
TD · Q3 9:18
Troy Williams 2 Yd Run (Troy Williams Pass to Demari Simpkins for Two-Point Conversion)
-20.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com