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ASU

Arizona State 16 at Colorado 40

COLO
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:54 · Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds , Tim White returns for 10 yds to the ArzSt 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 174Home team on offense+26.7Pregame prior+3.5Score differential+13.6Garbage-time factor+13.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+6.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 2:48: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kody Kohl for 5 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +4.4 pts (now 32%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 9:11: Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK) — COLO win probability +4.7 pts (now 77%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:47: Phillip Lindsay run for 13 yds for a TD, (Davis Price PAT MISSED) — COLO win probability +6.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:48: Phillip Lindsay run for 75 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK) — COLO win probability +11.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 10:50: Zane Gonzalez 50 yd FG GOOD — ASU win probability +4.0 pts (now 11%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ASU made the numbers' call on 10 of 14
  1. Q1 14:54ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 26, tied
    Close callPunted · 28.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:16ASU 4th & 11 at COLO 44, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.0%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    27.9%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    28.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:22COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 28, up 7
    Close callPunted · 72.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:38ASU 4th & 16 at ASU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:54COLO 4th & 3 at ASU 3, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    66.3%−2.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:57ASU 4th & 5 at COLO 33, down 3
    Close callKicked a field goal · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.8%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    30.1%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:11ASU 4th & 15 at ASU 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.5%−1.4
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:40ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:09COLO 4th & 11 at COLO 23, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−1.9
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:23ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 24, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.3%−0.3
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:48ASU 4th & 4 at ASU 31, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:18COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 6, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 93.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.6%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:50ASU 4th & 12 at COLO 32, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.2%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    5.9%
    51% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−0.6
    average punt
  14. Q3 1:50COLO 4th & 8 at ASU 18, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.7%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    94.1%
    79% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−2.3
    average punt
  15. Q3 1:50ASU 4th & 8 at ASU 27, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 30, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.0%
    average punt
  17. Q4 14:13ASU 4th & 10 at ASU 46, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.7%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 13:00COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 34, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 11:07ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 37, down 20
    Close callPunted · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:54ASU 4th & 19 at COLO 41, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.0%−0.4
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    1.4%
    32% to make
    Punt
    1.3%−0.1
    average punt
  21. Q4 8:54COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 32, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−0.2
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  22. Q4 6:56ASU 4th & 14 at ASU 47, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:16COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:48ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    30.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    30.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 9:11COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:47COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    82.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:48COLO Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 0:40COLO Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.6%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+3
72.8%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 14:54
2ND & 7
OWN 21
0
72.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Chidobe AwuzieSimilar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+5
72.8%
COLORADO Penalty, offside defense (Jimmie Gilbert) to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 26
0
72.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Demario RichardSimilar
Q1 14:54
4TH & 2
OWN 26
0
72.8%
Matt Haack punt for 55 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:4973% → 74%
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
72.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 4 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 14:05
3RD & 1
OWN 28
+7
72.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
72.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+12
72.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 12 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
72.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+14
72.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
72.8%
Kyle Evans run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+5
72.8%
Kyle Evans run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:05
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+5
72.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 5 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
73.6%
Kyle Evans run for 16 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 31 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
73.2%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
73.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+28
73.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 28 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
72.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 1 yd to the Colo 42Similar
Q1 11:16
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+2
72.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 40
-4
72.9%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 44Similar
Q1 11:16
4TH & 11
OPP 44
0
73.2%
Matt Haack punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
73.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+4
73.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 4 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+3
73.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
73.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds , Tim White returns for no gain to the ArzSt 26 Tim White fumbled, forced by Chidobe Awuzie,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
73.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 6:38
2ND & 8
OWN 28
0
73.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:38
3RD & 8
OWN 28
-8
73.9%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 6:38
4TH & 16
OWN 20
-2
74.2%
Matt Haack punt for 47 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 31 Jay MacIntyre fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Koron CrumpSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 31 yds · 2:2227% → 32%
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+14
72.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 14 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 9
OPP 16
+11
73.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 11 yds to the Colo 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
72.5%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 18Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 11
OPP 18
-5
72.6%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 16
OPP 23
+7
72.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the Colo 16Similar
Q1 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
68.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kody Kohl for 5 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7FG
14 plays · 72 yds · 4:5470% → 72%
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
70.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
71.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
70.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
71.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 2:48
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+3
71.0%
Kyle Evans run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
50
+2
71.4%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q1 2:48
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+32
71.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Kyle Evans for 32 yds to the ArzSt 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+10
71.7%
Kyle Evans run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
71.6%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
71.6%
Sefo Liufau run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
71.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
71.7%
Davis Price 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:5729% → 32%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+37
71.2%
Demario Richard run for 37 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
69.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
69.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+3
69.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 3 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q2 10:57
4TH & 5
OPP 33
+51
67.7%
Zane Gonzalez 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 1:4670% → 77%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+66
69.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 66 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 0
OPP 9
-5
72.7%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 14
+4
72.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 4 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
72.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q2 9:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
75.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-14
75.0%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 14 yards to the ArzSt 15 Manny Wilkins fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Stephon McCray , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 20
OWN 15
+5
76.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+5
76.5%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 5 yds to the Colo 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 11TD
9 plays · 56 yds · 2:1078% → 85%
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
77.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
77.4%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Bryce Bobo, broken up by Kareem OrrSimilar
Q2 6:57
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+15
76.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 15 yds to the ArzSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+7
78.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 3
OPP 34
-10
78.3%
Lindsay, Philli rush for 1 yard to the ASU33 (Fiso, Salamo), PENALTY COLO holding (Kelley, Alex) 10 yards to the ASU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+18
77.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 18 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
78.3%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 6:57
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+10
78.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
85.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 13 yds for a TD, (Davis Price PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
82.8%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 4:40
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
82.8%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
83.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:40
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
83.2%
Matt Haack punt for 52 yds, downed at the Colo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 13PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q2 3:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
84.7%
Kyle Evans run for 1 yd to the Colo 25Similar
Q2 3:09
2ND & 9
OWN 25
-2
84.7%
Kyle Evans run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 23Similar
Q2 3:09
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
84.2%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
83.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 47 yds , Tim White returns for no gain to the ArzSt 23 ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:3116% → 16%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
83.9%
Kalen Ballage run for no gain to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q2 1:54
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+4
84.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q2 1:54
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+5
84.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 0:23
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
84.0%
Matt Haack punt for 76 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
85.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
94.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 75 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
93.5%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 14:48
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
93.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+4
93.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 14:48
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
93.5%
Matt Haack punt for 64 yds, downed at the Colo 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0095% → 94%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
94.9%
Kyle Evans run for 1 yd to the Colo 6Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 9
OWN 6
0
94.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 9
OWN 6
0
94.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 9
OWN 6
+20
94.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds , Tim White returns for 20 yds to the Colo 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19FG
4 plays · -2 yds · 1:327% → 11%
Q3 12:22
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
92.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 8
OPP 28
-4
92.4%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Kenneth Olugbode for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 32Similar
Q3 12:22
3RD & 12
OPP 32
0
93.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:50
4TH & 12
OPP 32
+50
89.4%
Zane Gonzalez 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20MISSED FG
11 plays · 68 yds · 2:4091% → 92%
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
90.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 10 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
91.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 36Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+15
91.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 15 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
91.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 6 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+18
91.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 18 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+16
91.6%
Kyle Evans run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
91.6%
Kyle Evans run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 8Similar
Q3 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
91.6%
Sefo Liufau run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 7Similar
Q3 10:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
91.3%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Kyle EvansSimilar
Q3 8:10
4TH & 0
OPP 7
+26
92.2%
Davis Price 26 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21INT
6 plays · 40 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
90.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-5
90.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for a loss of 5 yards to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 15
OWN 15
+44
90.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 44 yds to the Colo 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
89.2%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 8:10
2ND & 9
OPP 40
0
89.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:10
3RD & 9
OPP 40
0
89.7%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Afolabi Laguda return for no gain to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22FG
13 plays · 62 yds · 4:2893% → 96%
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
92.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 21Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+5
92.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 5 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 6:18
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+11
92.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 11 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
93.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the Colo 43Similar
Q3 6:18
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+2
93.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 2
OWN 45
+9
93.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
94.0%
Jay MacIntyre pass incomplete to Sean IrwinSimilar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+26
93.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 26 yds to the ArzSt 20 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
94.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 4:19
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+6
94.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds to the ArzSt 16Similar
Q3 4:19
3RD & 6
OPP 16
-2
93.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 8
OPP 18
+36
95.5%
Chris Graham 36 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
97.3%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 27Similar
Q3 1:50
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
97.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q3 1:50
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
97.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Raymond EppsSimilar
Q3 1:50
4TH & 8
OWN 27
+9
97.3%
Matt Haack punt for 53 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 9 yds to the Colo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:0298% → 98%
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
97.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q3 1:02
2ND & 6
OWN 33
+1
97.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 1 yd to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 34
-4
98.0%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Viliami Latu for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 30
0
97.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
98.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 7 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+13
97.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 13 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 10
OWN 46
0
97.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron Smith, broken up by Ahkello WitherspoonSimilar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 10
OWN 46
0
98.0%
Matt Haack punt for 54 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 26PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
98.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 9 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 1
OWN 29
0
98.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+5
98.5%
Sefo Liufau run for 5 yds to the Colo 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
98.6%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
98.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 10
OWN 34
0
98.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q4 13:00
4TH & 10
OWN 34
+6
98.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 yds , Tim White returns for 6 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 11:07
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+7
98.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 11:07
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
98.6%
Matt Haack punt for 35 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for no gain to the Colo 32 Jay MacIntyre fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Carlos MendozaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 28FG
5 plays · -9 yds · 1:002% → 4%
Q4 9:54
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Isaiah OliverSimilar
Q4 9:54
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-9
98.4%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Addison Gillam for a loss of 9 yards to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 9:54
3RD & 19
OPP 41
0
98.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 19
OPP 41
+59
96.5%
Zane Gonzalez 59 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
97.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+8
97.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 8 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 8:54
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-2
97.2%
Sefo Liufau run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 32Similar
Q4 8:54
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+10
97.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds , Tim White returns for 10 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 30DOWNS
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+17
96.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 17 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
96.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q4 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+4
96.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ryan Jenkins for 4 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 6:56
3RD & 6
OPP 45
-8
96.5%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Chidobe Awuzie for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q4 6:56
4TH & 14
OWN 47
0
96.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 31TD
8 plays · 47 yds · 4:4898% → 100%
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+11
98.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
98.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
98.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 18Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+5
98.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+7
98.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q4 5:28
2ND & 3
OPP 6
+2
98.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 4Similar
Q4 0:40
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds for a TD, (Chris Graham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 32END OF GAME
3 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
99.5%
Nick Ralston run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q4 0:33
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+3
99.5%
Nick Ralston run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 14:48
Phillip Lindsay run for 75 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q2 4:47
Phillip Lindsay run for 13 yds for a TD, (Davis Price PAT MISSED)
+6.7
TD · Q2 9:11
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)
+4.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com