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USC

USC 48 at Arizona 14

ARIZ
2016 · Week 7 · Oct 15, 2016 · Arizona Stadium
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Win probability · ARIZ
modelARIZ aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playARIZ scoreUSC score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:39 · Khalil Tate pass incomplete
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+57.5+28.80−28.8−57.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 63Home team on offense−7.3Score differential−4.1Pregame prior−15.1Garbage-time factor−2.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:40: Khalil Tate run for 3 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +3.3 pts (now 34%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 13:42: Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +5.0 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 4:07: JuJu Smith-Schuster 3 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — USC win probability +10.5 pts (now 84%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:23: Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 39 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +3.5 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 10:29: Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 46 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +3.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 10:29ARIZ 4th & 13 at midfield, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.6%−0.2
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:45USC 4th & 4 at USC 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:39ARIZ 4th & 1 at USC 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    25.6%−1.7
    94% to make
    Punt
    21.3%−6.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 7:15USC 4th & 6 at USC 29, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.4%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:02ARIZ 4th & 10 at ARIZ 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:16USC 4th & 3 at midfield, up 14
    Close callPunted · 75.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.1%−0.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:07ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 33, down 20
    Close callPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.3%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 46, down 27
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.1%−1.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:29ARIZ 4th & 10 at USC 37, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.7%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    2.7%−<0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 2:28USC 4th & 5 at ARIZ 37, up 34
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.0%
    42% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.9%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    98.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 11:33ARIZ 4th & 20 at ARIZ 15, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:34USC 4th & 6 at USC 40, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:25USC 4th & 1 at ARIZ 1, up 34
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.1%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ARIZ made the numbers' call on 1 of 2USC made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 10:29USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:40ARIZ Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:04USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:42USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:07USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:23USC Touchdown, up 26 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:29USC Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 13:13ARIZ Touchdown, down 28 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 11:33USC Touchdown, up 33 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1TD
12 plays · 73 yds · 4:3171% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
28.8%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
28.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+19
28.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+9
28.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 9 yds to the Ariz 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+10
28.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 10 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
28.8%
ARIZONA Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Ariz 26Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 5
OPP 26
+14
28.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 14 yds to the Ariz 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
28.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+9
28.8%
Sam Darnold run for 9 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
28.8%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 5Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
29.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+28
29.5%
Khalil Tate run for 28 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-2
29.9%
Nick Wilson run for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 49Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 12
OPP 49
-5
29.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Ariz 46Similar
Q1 10:29
2ND & 17
OWN 46
0
29.6%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:29
3RD & 17
OWN 46
+4
29.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Samajie Grant for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 10:29
4TH & 13
50
+5
29.3%
Josh Pollack punt for 42 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 5 yds to the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+3
29.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q1 8:45
2ND & 7
OWN 16
+3
29.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
29.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:45
4TH & 4
OWN 19
+49
29.8%
Chris Tilbey punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ARIZONA 47 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 4TD
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:3031% → 34%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
30.6%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+3
30.9%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 7:10
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+16
30.6%
Tate, K. pass incomplete to Griffey, T., PENALTY USC pass interference 16 yards to the USC13, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
30.9%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+6
30.9%
Nick Wilson run for 6 yds to the USC 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
34.2%
Khalil Tate run for 3 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:3667% → 71%
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.9%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
32.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+7
33.8%
Sam Darnold run for 7 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+17
33.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 17 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
32.6%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to De'Quan HamptonSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
32.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Ariz 42Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+5
32.7%
Sam Darnold run for 5 yds to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
32.6%
Jalen Greene pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
32.6%
Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q1 4:49
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+8
32.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 8 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
32.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the Ariz 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
32.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the Ariz 11Similar
Q1 4:49
2ND & 7
OPP 11
0
32.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete, broken up by Larry Tharpe Jr.Similar
Q1 0:04
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
29.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 6FUMBLE
3 plays · 11 yds · 0:0431% → 31%
Q1 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
30.7%
Khalil Tate sacked by Leon McQuay III for a loss of 12 yards to the Ariz 13Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 22
OWN 13
+26
30.6%
Khalil Tate run for 23 yds to the Ariz 10 Khalil Tate fumbled, forced by Chris Hawkins, recovered by USC Adoree' Jackson , return for 26 yds to the Ariz 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
2 plays · 10 yds · 1:0571% → 76%
Q2 14:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
29.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Ariz 8Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
24.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 8DOWNS
13 plays · 74 yds · 3:0326% → 24%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
25.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+10
25.6%
Tate, K. pass incomplete to Griffey, T., PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the ARIZ36, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
26.1%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 38Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+6
26.4%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+39
26.5%
Nick Wilson run for 39 yds to the USC 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
27.2%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+7
27.2%
USC Penalty, face mask (7 yards) (7 Yards) to the USC 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
27.2%
Nick Wilson run for no gain to the USC 7Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
27.2%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the USC 3Similar
Q2 10:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
24.5%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the USC 1Similar
Q2 10:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
24.4%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9PUNT
11 plays · 28 yds · 2:4077% → 70%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
22.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 5Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 6
OWN 5
+4
22.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 4 yds to the USC 9Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 9
+5
23.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 5 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
22.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+11
22.6%
Sam Darnold run for 11 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
25.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Daniel ImatorbhebheSimilar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
25.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q2 7:15
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
29.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete, broken up by Jace WhittakerSimilar
Q2 7:15
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
29.6%
Chris Tilbey punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
24.5%
Zach Green run for no gain to the Ariz 35Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
24.4%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
24.0%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+1
24.0%
Josh Pollack punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 43 , Steven Mitchell Jr. returns for 1 yd to the USC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 6:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
28.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster, broken up by Dane CruikshankSimilar
Q2 6:16
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
28.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:16
3RD & 3
50
0
27.9%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 6:16
4TH & 3
50
0
28.8%
Chris Tilbey punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 12INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q2 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+12
22.9%
Khalil Tate pass intercepted Iman Marshall return for 12 yds to the Ariz 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13TD
3 plays · 15 yds · 1:0873% → 84%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
26.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 11 yds to the Ariz 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
26.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the Ariz 3Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
16.3%
JuJu Smith-Schuster 3 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q2 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
17.7%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Ariz 26Similar
Q2 4:07
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
17.6%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:07
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
17.5%
Khalil Tate run for 7 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 4:07
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
17.7%
Josh Pollack punt for 67 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 2:3883% → 94%
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
17.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+9
17.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
17.0%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to De'Quan Hampton, broken up by Jace WhittakerSimilar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
-4
17.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 11 yds to the USC 42 USC Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the USC 27Similar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
17.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 3:01
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+18
16.4%
Sam Darnold run for 18 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
15.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 7 yds to the Ariz 39Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
6.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 39 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
4.6%
Zach Green run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:007% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
6.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
6.1%
Khalil Tate run for 1 yd to the Ariz 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
6.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Samajie Grant for 12 yds to the Ariz 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
6.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-1
6.7%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Trey Griffey for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
6.3%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 46
-2
6.3%
Josh Pollack punt for 37 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
6 plays · 85 yds · 2:3893% → 98%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
6.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 15 yds to the USC 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
6.5%
Ronald Jones II run for 7 yds to the USC 37Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+4
5.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+13
6.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 13 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
6.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for no gain to the Ariz 46Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+46
2.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 46 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 38 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.2%
Zach Green run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+17
3.2%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Nate Phillips for 17 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
3.4%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Brandon Rutt for 5 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 5
OPP 49
0
3.5%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+12
3.5%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Nate Phillips for 12 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
3.6%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q3 10:29
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
3.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q3 10:29
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-3
3.5%
Khalil Tate sacked by Michael Hutchings for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 37Similar
Q3 10:29
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
3.4%
Khalil Tate pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20MISSED FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 5:0398% → 99%
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
1.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+1
1.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd to the USC 41Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 6
OWN 41
-10
1.7%
Darnold, Sam pass complete to Pittman, Michae for 5 yards to the USC46 (FlanniganFowles), PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the USC31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 16
OWN 31
+16
1.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 32 for a 1ST down ARIZONA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
1.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the Ariz 44Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+2
1.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
1.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 7 yds to the Ariz 35Similar
Q3 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 35
-2
1.6%
Jalen Greene run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 37Similar
Q3 7:31
3RD & 5
OPP 37
0
1.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:28
4TH & 5
OPP 37
+54
0.9%
Matt Boermeester 54 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 21TD
13 plays · 63 yds · 4:152% → 2%
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
2.0%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+14
2.0%
Tyrell Johnson run for 14 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
2.2%
Green, Z. rush for 3 yards to the USC43 (Gustin, Porter), PENALTY ARIZ holding 10 yards to the ARIZ44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 20
OWN 44
0
2.0%
Matt Morin pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:28
2ND & 20
OWN 44
+5
1.9%
Matt Morin run for 5 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 2:28
3RD & 15
OWN 49
+15
2.0%
Morin, M. pass incomplete to Grant, S., PENALTY USC pass interference 15 yards to the USC36, 1ST DOWN ARIZ, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+10
2.2%
Matt Morin pass complete to Nate Phillips for 10 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:28
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+8
2.4%
Zach Green run for 8 yds to the USC 18Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 18
-3
0.5%
Matt Morin run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+6
0.5%
Matt Morin run for 6 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
0.6%
Zach Green run for 8 yds to the USC 7Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 7
0
0.6%
Zach Green run for no gain to the USC 7Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+7
2.1%
Matt Morin pass complete to Samajie Grant for 7 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:4099% → 100%
Q4 13:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
0.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the USC 35Similar
Q4 13:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
0.7%
Max Browne pass complete to Isaac Whitney for 7 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+37
0.5%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 37 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
0.4%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 21 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · -10 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.3%
Matt Morin pass incomplete, broken up by Jack JonesSimilar
Q4 11:33
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-10
0.3%
Matt Morin run for a loss of 10 yards to the Ariz 15 Matt Morin fumbled, recovered by Ariz Matt MorinSimilar
Q4 11:33
3RD & 20
OWN 15
0
0.3%
Matt Morin pass incomplete, broken up by Ykili RossSimilar
Q4 11:33
4TH & 20
OWN 15
+5
0.3%
Josh Pollack punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 36 , Deontay Burnett returns for 5 yds to the USC 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:34
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
0.4%
Dominic Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 37Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 9
OWN 37
-10
0.4%
Davis, Dominic rush for 6 yards to the USC43 (Matthews, J.), PENALTY USC holding 10 yards to the USC27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:34
2ND & 19
OWN 27
+1
0.4%
Dominic Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 28Similar
Q4 10:34
3RD & 18
OWN 28
+12
0.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Jalen Greene for 12 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q4 10:34
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
0.4%
Chris Tilbey punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ariz 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 25FUMBLE
7 plays · 68 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+7
0.2%
Zach Green run for 7 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 3
OWN 29
+2
0.2%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 1
OWN 31
+2
0.2%
Zach Green run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+51
0.2%
Matt Morin pass complete to Cam Denson for 51 yds to the USC 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
0.3%
Matt Morin run for 6 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
0.2%
Zach Green run for no gain to the USC 10Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
0.2%
Zach Green run for no gain to the USC 10 Zach Green fumbled, recovered by USC Connor MurphySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26DOWNS
5 plays · 87 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+85
0.2%
Dominic Davis run for 85 yds to the Ariz 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
0.2%
Dominic Davis run for 3 yds to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 5:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
0.2%
Dominic Davis run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.2%
Dominic Davis run for 1 yd to the Ariz 1Similar
Q4 5:25
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
0.2%
Dominic Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Ariz 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 27INT
6 plays · 34 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+10
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 10 yds to the Ariz 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+4
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 4 yds to the Ariz 17Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 6
OWN 17
+3
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 3 yds to the Ariz 20Similar
Q4 2:23
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+16
0.1%
Matt Morin pass complete to Josh Kern for 16 yds to the Ariz 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
0.1%
Branden Leon run for 1 yd to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 2:23
2ND & 9
OWN 37
+33
0.1%
Matt Morin pass intercepted Ajene Harris return for 33 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:07
JuJu Smith-Schuster 3 Yd pass from Sam Darnold (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-10.5
TD · Q2 13:42
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 8 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
-5
TD · Q3 10:29
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 46 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
-3.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com