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CAL

California 44 at Oregon State 47

ORST
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTFGTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · Darell Garretson run for 16 yds for a TD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4OT
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 14:35: Tre Watson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +16.5 pts (now 28%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:35: Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +15.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 2:41: Khalfani Muhammad run for 50 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +23.4 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 0:05: Matt Anderson 29 yd FG GOOD — CAL win probability +40.7 pts (now 60%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: Darell Garretson run for 16 yds for a TD — ORST win probability +42.3 pts (now 82%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 3 of 4CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.2%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:42ORST 4th & 6 at CAL 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.4%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    29.5%−0.9
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:35CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 1:50CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.3%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 1 at ORST 34, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    58.8%−1.7
    47% to make
    Punt
    58.3%−2.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:14CAL 4th & 10 at ORST 10, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.7
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    48.7%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 5:15CAL 4th & 15 at CAL 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.8%−1.5
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.3%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:27CAL 4th & 11 at ORST 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    32.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    32.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:40ORST 4th & 3 at CAL 6, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 80.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.4%−1.3
    91% to make
    Punt
    68.9%−11.8
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:26CAL 4th & 2 at ORST 11, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−0.6
    87% to make
    Punt
    -0.4%−6.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 7:01ORST 4th & 4 at ORST 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.4%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  12. Q4 2:41CAL 4th & 6 at midfield, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:29ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.1%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:49CAL 4th & 11 at ORST 42, down 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.8 ptsWent for it · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.0%−2.8
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    21.8%
    30% to make
    Punt
    15.4%−6.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 1:50ORST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:11ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:56CAL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 14:38ORST Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:06CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:43ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:35CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 10:35ORST Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 7:01CAL Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:41CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.3%−2.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.8%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
28.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 21
-5
28.7%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (Steven Moore) to the Cal 16Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+12
28.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 12 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
28.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+63
28.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 57 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 27 OREGON ST Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the OrgSt 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 2FG
13 plays · 79 yds · 6:2129% → 33%
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+13
29.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 13 yds to the OrgSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+15
29.2%
Ryan Nall run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
29.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 13 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
29.3%
Darell Garretson run for 3 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+5
29.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 5 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 2
OPP 43
+3
29.3%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
29.3%
Ryan Nall run for 12 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
29.3%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 8 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+3
29.3%
Paul Lucas run for 3 yds to the Cal 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:03
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
29.3%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q1 14:03
2ND & 6
OPP 13
0
29.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q1 14:03
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
29.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Raymond DavisonSimilar
Q1 7:42
4TH & 6
OPP 13
+31
33.0%
Garrett Owens 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
33.2%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+10
33.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 10 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
33.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 2 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 7:35
2ND & 8
OWN 20
0
33.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q1 7:35
3RD & 8
OWN 20
0
33.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q1 7:35
4TH & 8
OWN 20
0
33.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 4TD
9 plays · 46 yds · 4:4034% → 42%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
34.3%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the Cal 41Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 5
OPP 41
+2
34.2%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+9
34.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the Cal 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
34.4%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
34.4%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 6:30
3RD & 6
OPP 26
+6
34.1%
Darell Garretson run for 6 yds to the Cal 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
34.4%
Paul Lucas run for 6 yds to the Cal 14Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 14
+10
34.4%
Ryan Nall run for 10 yds to the Cal 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
41.5%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5FG
23 plays · 65 yds · 6:3660% → 57%
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
40.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 5 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
39.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
40.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 1:50
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+11
40.5%
Dylan Klumph pass complete to Evan Weaver for 11 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
39.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
39.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 1:50
2ND & 1
OPP 34
0
38.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
0
40.5%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 34
+3
41.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
40.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 9 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
+2
39.9%
Melquise Stovall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
39.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+6
39.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 6 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+3
40.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
39.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
39.9%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete to Hansen, Chad, PENALTY OSU personal foul (Decoud, Treston) 0 yards to the OSU1, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
39.9%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the OrgSt 6Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
39.9%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 3Similar
Q2 10:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-7
42.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for a loss of 7 yards to the OrgSt 10Similar
Q2 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
43.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 10:14
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
43.4%
Matt Anderson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 6TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0345% → 59%
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
44.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+4
45.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 4 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
45.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+23
46.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 8 yds to the Cal 48 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Evan Weaver) to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
46.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q2 10:14
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+11
46.6%
Paul Lucas run for 11 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:14
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
46.9%
Paul Lucas run for 1 yd to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 6:21
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
50.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan Villamin, broken up by Cameron SaffleSimilar
Q2 6:11
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+25
58.6%
Darell Garretson run for 25 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7INT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
56.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 3 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q2 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
56.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+5
56.6%
OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense (Manase Hungalu) to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 6:05
3RD & 2
OWN 36
0
56.0%
Davis Webb pass intercepted Devin Chappell return for no gain to the OrgSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 8INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
59.4%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Trey Turner return for 3 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0045% → 42%
Q2 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-10
55.1%
Enwere, Vic rush for 12 yards to the OSU34 (Arnold, Brandon), PENALTY CAL holding (Wallace, Dwayne) 10 yards to the CAL44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:15
1ST & 20
OWN 44
+1
57.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 1 yd to the Cal 45Similar
Q2 5:15
2ND & 19
OWN 45
+7
57.7%
Vic Enwere run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q2 5:15
3RD & 12
OPP 48
-3
57.1%
Davis Webb sacked by Bright Ugwoegbu for a loss of 3 yards to the OREGONST 49 CALIFORNIA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 5:15
4TH & 15
OWN 49
0
58.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden Jr. at the OrgSt 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 10INT TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 2:1564% → 54%
Q2 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-5
64.0%
Garretson, D. pass complete to Collins, Seth for 7 yards to the OSU20 (Downs, Devante;Hawkins, Jaylinn), PENALTY OSU holding (Jarmon, Hunter) 5 yards to the OSU8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:11
1ST & 15
OWN 8
+6
63.3%
Paul Lucas run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q2 3:11
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+6
63.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 3:11
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+13
61.7%
Ryan Nall run for 13 yds to the OrgSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+39
53.8%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted for a TD Raymond Davison return for 39 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11END OF HALF
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 56%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
53.5%
Paul Lucas run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+9
53.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
55.0%
Artavis Pierce run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-12
55.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48 OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Gus Lavaka) to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 12TD
2 plays · 80 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q3 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+80
69.8%
Ryan Nall run for 80 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0033% → 31%
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
66.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 15 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:27
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
66.2%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
66.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-5
66.5%
Webb, Davis pass complete to Stovall, Melquise for 6 yards to the OSU27 (Williams, D.), PENALTY CAL ineligible downfield on pass (Cochran, Aaron) 5 yards to the OSU38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:27
3RD & 11
OPP 38
0
67.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q3 14:27
4TH & 11
OPP 38
0
68.6%
Dylan Klumph punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14FG
13 plays · 74 yds · 6:2472% → 86%
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
71.9%
Paul Lucas run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 27Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+5
71.9%
Paul Lucas run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
72.0%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
71.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+9
71.2%
Darell Garretson run for 9 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
73.1%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 4
50
+12
73.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 12 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+7
73.0%
Darell Garretson run for 7 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 3
OPP 31
+18
73.0%
Darell Garretson run for 18 yds to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:04
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
73.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q3 13:04
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+2
73.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Cal 6Similar
Q3 13:04
3RD & 3
OPP 6
0
72.3%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Timmy HernandezSimilar
Q3 6:40
4TH & 3
OPP 6
+24
86.2%
Garrett Owens 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 2:2816% → 33%
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
84.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 4 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+8
84.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 8 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
84.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+4
83.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 6:34
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+12
84.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 12 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
83.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Devin ChappellSimilar
Q3 6:34
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+32
83.8%
Tre Watson run for 32 yds to the OrgSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
82.1%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
67.5%
Davis Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2374% → 91%
Q3 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
74.0%
Darell Garretson run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q3 4:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+62
74.8%
Ryan Nall run for 62 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
90.6%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
17 plays · 91 yds · 3:0411% → 28%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-4
88.8%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete to Singleton, Brandon, PENALTY CAL holding 4 yards to the CAL5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 14
OWN 5
+23
88.8%
Tre Watson run for 23 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
87.8%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+5
87.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
87.5%
Melquise Stovall run for 6 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
87.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 2 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+4
87.4%
Tre Watson run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
87.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+3
87.1%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+10
87.3%
Tre Watson run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
86.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 10
OPP 35
0
86.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete, broken up by Bright UgwoegbuSimilar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-1
86.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Brandon Singleton for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+15
90.2%
Webb, Davis pass incomplete to Hansen, Chad (Decoud, Treston), PENALTY OSU pass interference (Decoud, Treston) 15 yards to the OSU21, 1ST DOWN CAL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+14
88.4%
Tre Watson run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
71.9%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18TD
10 plays · 73 yds · 4:0078% → 96%
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+32
78.0%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 32 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
80.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 4 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+2
80.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 14:35
3RD & 4
OPP 35
+7
79.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 7 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
80.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+15
80.4%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (Luke Rubenzer) to the Cal 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:35
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
80.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 3 yds to the Cal 10Similar
Q4 14:35
2ND & 7
OPP 10
+8
80.6%
Darell Garretson run for 8 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 19TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 3:256% → 18%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
94.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 9 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+27
94.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 12 yds to the OREGONST 46 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul (Xavier Crawford) to the OrgSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
93.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 10
OPP 31
0
93.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 10
OPP 31
+12
93.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
93.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 6 yds to the OrgSt 13Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 4
OPP 13
0
93.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q4 10:26
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+2
93.5%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 11Similar
Q4 10:26
4TH & 2
OPP 11
+5
93.6%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
93.0%
Tre Watson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, personal foul ( Yards) to the OrgSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
82.5%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
89.0%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+1
89.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
89.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q4 7:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+11
88.2%
Nick Porebski punt for 46 yds , Vic Wharton III returns for 11 yds to the Cal 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 21TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:3911% → 33%
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-1
88.9%
Khalfani Muhammad run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 11
OWN 33
+9
90.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 9 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 2
OWN 42
+4
88.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-1
88.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 5:20
2ND & 11
OWN 45
-1
88.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 44Similar
Q4 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 44
+6
90.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 6
50
+50
66.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 50 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 0:1183% → 85%
Q4 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
82.9%
Paul Lucas run for no gain to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+5
82.9%
Darell Garretson run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q4 2:29
3RD & 5
OWN 35
-1
85.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q4 2:29
4TH & 6
OWN 34
0
84.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cal 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 23FG
13 plays · 55 yds · 1:4423% → 60%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
76.8%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 3
OWN 40
+7
72.9%
Tre Watson run for 7 yds to the Cal 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
73.4%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Manase HungaluSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+12
74.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
70.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 41
-1
71.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 11
OPP 42
0
74.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 11
OPP 42
+25
77.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Wharton III for 25 yds to the OrgSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+5
65.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 5 yds to the OrgSt 12Similar
Q4 0:14
2ND & 5
OPP 12
0
77.0%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:05
3RD & 5
OPP 12
+29
40.1%
Matt Anderson 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
58.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 25FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0060% → 72%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
40.5%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
41.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 22Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
0
43.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
OT 0:00
4TH & 7
OPP 22
+39
28.5%
Matt Anderson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26TD
3 plays · 25 yds · 0:0041% → 82%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
41.3%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 1 yd to the Cal 24Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 9
OPP 24
+8
39.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 8 yds to the Cal 16Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+16
82.2%
Darell Garretson run for 16 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
Darell Garretson run for 16 yds for a TD
+42.3
FG · Q4 0:05
Matt Anderson 29 yd FG GOOD
-40.7
TD · Q4 2:41
Khalfani Muhammad run for 50 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-23.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com