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WASH

Washington 70 at Oregon 21

ORE
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Autzen Stadium
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Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadWASH aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreWASH score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:42 · Ian Wheeler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+59.0+29.50−29.5−59.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 133Home team on offense−43.8Score differential−29.4Pregame prior−7.3Garbage-time factor−13.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−3.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 7:30: John Ross 3 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +2.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:37: Myles Gaskin 65 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +6.9 pts (now 79%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:21: Jake Browning 7 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +3.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 8:34: Taj Griffin 21 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick) — ORE win probability +3.6 pts (now 6%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 7:17: Dante Pettis 28 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 8 of 11WASH made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:48ORE 4th & 2 at ORE 29, down 7
    Close callPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:21ORE 4th & 8 at ORE 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.1%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.7%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:22WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−0.4
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:48ORE 4th & 8 at WASH 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    31.1%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    30.7%−0.5
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:31ORE 4th & 5 at WASH 26, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 24.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    24.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    22.2%−1.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:12WASH 4th & 12 at WASH 44, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.8
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.3%
    average punt
  7. Q2 10:39ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 40, down 21
    Close callPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.9%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:29WASH 4th & 13 at WASH 17, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:49ORE 4th & 2 at WASH 25, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 11.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    10.9%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    10.6%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:59WASH 4th & 7 at WASH 28, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.3%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:09ORE 4th & 21 at ORE 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.5
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:42ORE 4th & 9 at ORE 36, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.4%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:04ORE 4th & 4 at ORE 19, down 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:50ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 30, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:10WASH 4th & 13 at WASH 15, up 49
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.5%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:15ORE 4th & 5 at WASH 5, down 49
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 3WASH made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 13:23WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:30WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:37WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 5:27WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:33ORE Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    14.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:21WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 11:07WASH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 8:34ORE Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 7:17WASH Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 5:07WASH Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 2:44ORE Touchdown, down 36 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    1.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 13:58WASH Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 9:58WASH Touchdown, up 48 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 14:42
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+15
30.8%
Justin Herbert pass intercepted Budda Baker return for 15 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 2TD
4 plays · 30 yds · 0:4369% → 69%
Q1 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
30.9%
Myles Gaskin run for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+34
31.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 34 yds to the Oregn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
30.8%
Jake Browning 1 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 3
OWN 3
-15
31.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (-15 Yards) to the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1231% → 31%
Q1 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
30.9%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+3
30.9%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+3
30.9%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 3 yds to the Oregn 29Similar
Q1 11:48
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
30.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD
10 plays · 67 yds · 4:0069% → 72%
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+2
31.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 2 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
31.0%
Jake Browning pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+11
31.1%
Jake Browning run for 11 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+16
30.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 16 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+5
30.8%
Myles Gaskin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 5
OPP 33
+8
30.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Darrell Daniels for 8 yds to the Oregn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:55
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
30.6%
Andre Baccellia run for 9 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+8
30.6%
Jake Browning run for 8 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
30.6%
Myles Gaskin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 3Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
28.0%
John Ross 3 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:5729% → 29%
Q1 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
29.2%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
-1
29.2%
Justin Herbert sacked by Greg Gaines for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 25Similar
Q1 6:37
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
28.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 6:21
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+2
28.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 46 yds , Dante Pettis returns for 2 yds to the Wash 27 WASHINGTON Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Wash 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:5572% → 72%
Q1 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
28.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for 4 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
27.9%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Aaron FullerSimilar
Q1 5:38
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
28.1%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the Wash 25Similar
Q1 5:22
4TH & 6
OWN 25
0
28.2%
Tristan Vizcaino punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7DOWNS
9 plays · 35 yds · 2:2629% → 28%
Q1 5:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+10
28.7%
Justin Herbert run for 10 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
29.1%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 4:36
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+4
29.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Jalen Brown for 4 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q1 4:24
3RD & 4
OWN 46
+17
29.2%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Johnny Mundt for 17 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:07
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
29.4%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q1 3:52
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+1
29.7%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Wash 30Similar
Q1 3:27
3RD & 3
OPP 30
0
28.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for no gain to the Wash 30Similar
Q1 3:00
4TH & 3
OPP 30
-5
28.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (Brady Aiello) to the Wash 35Similar
Q1 2:48
4TH & 8
OPP 35
0
27.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 8TD
1 play · 65 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q1 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+65
21.1%
Myles Gaskin 65 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 43 yds · 1:5422% → 22%
Q1 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
22.4%
Taj Griffin run for 4 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+3
22.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 3 yds to the Oregn 42Similar
Q1 1:44
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+27
22.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 27 yds to the Wash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:33
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
22.8%
Taj Griffin run for 5 yds to the Wash 26Similar
Q1 1:10
2ND & 5
OPP 26
0
22.6%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q1 0:59
3RD & 5
OPP 26
0
22.3%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Wash 26Similar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 5
OPP 26
+4
21.8%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the Wash 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:0981% → 82%
Q1 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+12
19.5%
Jake Browning pass complete to Myles Gaskin for 12 yds to the Wash 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+12
19.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 12 yds to the Wash 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-4
18.4%
Lavon Coleman run for a loss of 4 yards to the Wash 42Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 14
OWN 42
+10
18.1%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 10 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 12:50
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-3
17.7%
Jake Browning sacked by A.J. Hotchkins for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 49Similar
Q2 12:32
4TH & 7
OWN 49
-5
18.0%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (John Ross) to the Wash 44Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
17.9%
Tristan Vizcaino punt for 56 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 1:2119% → 18%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
18.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 6 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
18.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 8 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
18.5%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 11:03
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+8
18.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Evan Baylis for 8 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
18.5%
Justin Herbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:39
4TH & 4
OWN 40
0
18.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5884% → 84%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
16.2%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 7 yds to the Wash 27Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
-2
15.8%
Lavon Coleman run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 25Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 5
OWN 25
-3
15.6%
Jake Browning sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 22Similar
Q2 8:48
4TH & 8
OWN 22
-5
15.8%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wash 17Similar
Q2 8:29
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+23
15.6%
Tristan Vizcaino punt for 38 yds, downed at the OREGON 45 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (-15 Yards) to the Wash 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · 34 yds · 0:2118% → 19%
Q2 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
17.7%
Royce Freeman run for 12 yds to the Wash 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
18.9%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+22
18.5%
Royce Freeman run for 22 yds to the Wash 6 Royce Freeman fumbled, recovered by WashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14TD
5 plays · 94 yds · 2:0385% → 86%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+5
15.3%
Myles Gaskin run for 5 yds to the Wash 11Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 11
+6
15.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 6 yds to the Wash 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+68
14.7%
Myles Gaskin run for 68 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:07
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
13.6%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the Oregn 15Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
13.6%
John Ross 15 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:3613% → 17%
Q2 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
12.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 12 yds to the Wash 37 for a 1ST down WASHINGTON Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Wash 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
13.8%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Wash 47Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+14
13.3%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 14 yds to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
14.0%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Royce Freeman for no gain to the Wash 33Similar
Q2 4:05
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
18.9%
Justin Herbert run for 4 yds to the Wash 29Similar
Q2 3:55
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+4
17.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 4 yds to the Wash 25Similar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 2
OPP 25
+7
17.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the Wash 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:33
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
16.8%
Tony Brooks-James 18 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
Q2 3:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
-5
16.6%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wash 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1187% → 88%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
12.8%
Myles Gaskin run for 3 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Myles Gaskin run for no gain to the Wash 28Similar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
12.9%
Jake Browning pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+6
12.1%
Tristan Vizcaino punt for 46 yds , Darren Carrington II returns for 6 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · -11 yds · 0:4514% → 14%
Q2 1:54
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
14.0%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q2 1:40
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-6
13.7%
Justin Herbert sacked by Greg Gaines for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 26Similar
Q2 1:20
3RD & 16
OWN 26
-5
13.2%
Justin Herbert sacked by Joe Mathis for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 21Similar
Q2 1:09
4TH & 21
OWN 21
+4
13.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 38 yds , Dante Pettis returns for 4 yds to the Wash 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 0:3989% → 94%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+23
11.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 23 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
10.4%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 9 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
10.2%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Illegal Touching ( Yards) to the Oregn 23Similar
Q2 0:35
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+8
10.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 8 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+8
10.3%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 8 yds to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 2
OPP 7
+7
6.4%
Jake Browning 7 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
5.0%
Taj Griffin run for 1 yd to the Oregn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4592% → 98%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
7.7%
Myles Gaskin run for 9 yds to the Wash 34Similar
Q3 14:20
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
6.8%
Myles Gaskin run for 7 yds to the Wash 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
6.0%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 8 yds to the Wash 49Similar
Q3 13:25
2ND & 2
OWN 49
+10
5.1%
Myles Gaskin run for 10 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+26
5.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 26 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:38
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
5.0%
Myles Gaskin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 10Similar
Q3 12:03
2ND & 5
OPP 10
0
4.7%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to John RossSimilar
Q3 11:55
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+8
4.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Jomon Dotson for 8 yds to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
3.9%
Jomon Dotson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 3Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
2.3%
John Ross 3 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:233% → 6%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
2.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q3 10:50
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
2.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 6 yds to the Oregn 40Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+4
2.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 4 yds to the Oregn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+9
2.4%
Tony Brooks-James run for 9 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 1
OPP 47
-1
2.4%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 48Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+15
2.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 15 yds to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+12
2.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 12 yds to the Wash 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
6.0%
Taj Griffin 21 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 22TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0597% → 98%
Q3 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
3.4%
Lavon Coleman run for 5 yds to the Wash 30Similar
Q3 7:50
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+42
3.3%
Lavon Coleman run for 42 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+28
1.6%
Dante Pettis 28 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:262% → 2%
Q3 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
1.6%
Charles Nelson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 6:58
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+2
1.6%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 2 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 36
0
1.5%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q3 6:42
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
1.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 24TD
4 plays · 70 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q3 6:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
1.5%
Andre Baccellia run for 7 yds to the Wash 37Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 3
OWN 37
+27
1.3%
Myles Gaskin run for 12 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+26
1.2%
John Ross run for 26 yds to the Oregn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
1.0%
Dante Pettis 10 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:561% → 1%
Q3 4:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+35
0.8%
Taj Griffin run for 35 yds to the Wash 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
0.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 2 yds to the Wash 42Similar
Q3 3:58
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+7
0.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds to the Wash 35Similar
Q3 3:39
3RD & 1
OPP 35
+4
0.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Wash 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+16
0.8%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 16 yds to the Wash 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
0.7%
Justin Herbert pass complete to Charles Nelson for 5 yds to the Wash 10Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+10
1.2%
Taj Griffin 10 Yd Run (Aidan Schneider Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 26TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3299% → 100%
Q3 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
0.9%
Jomon Dotson run for 3 yds to the Wash 28Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
0.8%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to John RossSimilar
Q3 1:52
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+8
0.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Dante Pettis for 8 yds to the Wash 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
0.7%
Lavon Coleman run for 7 yds to the Wash 43Similar
Q3 0:29
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+12
0.7%
Lavon Coleman run for 12 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
0.6%
Jomon Dotson run for 1 yd to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 9
OPP 44
0
0.6%
Jake Browning pass incomplete to Dante PettisSimilar
Q4 13:58
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+44
0.5%
Jomon Dotson 44 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:350% → 0%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
0.4%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
Q4 13:39
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+6
0.3%
Tony Brooks-James run for 6 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 13:13
3RD & 4
OWN 19
0
0.3%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Johnny MundtSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 4
OWN 19
0
0.3%
Ian Wheeler punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Dante Pettis at the Wash 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 28TD
6 plays · 52 yds · 2:47100% → 100%
Q4 12:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
0.5%
Jomon Dotson run for no gain to the Wash 48Similar
Q4 12:10
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+37
0.4%
Jomon Dotson run for 37 yds to the Oregn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-2
0.3%
Jomon Dotson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Oregn 17Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 12
OPP 17
+14
0.3%
Jomon Dotson run for 14 yds to the Oregn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-2
0.3%
Jomon Dotson run for 2 yds to the Oregn 1 WASHINGTON Penalty, Assisting the Runner (-4 Yards) to the Oregn 5Similar
Q4 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.3%
Jomon Dotson 5 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:570% → 0%
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
0.2%
Taj Griffin run for 2 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 9:20
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
0.2%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
0.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Evan BaylisSimilar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 5
OWN 30
+52
0.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the OREGON 28 WASHINGTON Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the Wash 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 2:15100% → 100%
Q4 8:25
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-2
0.3%
Jomon Dotson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 16Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 12
OWN 16
0
0.3%
Jomon Dotson run for no gain to the Wash 16Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 12
OWN 16
-5
0.3%
WASHINGTON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wash 11Similar
Q4 6:45
3RD & 17
OWN 11
+4
0.3%
Jomon Dotson run for 4 yds to the Wash 15Similar
Q4 6:10
4TH & 13
OWN 15
0
0.3%
Tristan Vizcaino punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dillon Mitchell at the Oregn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 31DOWNS
12 plays · 50 yds · 4:350% → 0%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for 8 yds to the Wash 47Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+13
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for 13 yds to the Wash 34 Jarret LaCoste fumbled, recovered by OregnSimilar
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for 3 yds to the Wash 31Similar
Q4 4:35
2ND & 7
OPP 31
+11
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for 11 yds to the Wash 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:05
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for 6 yds to the Wash 14Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 4
OPP 14
0
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for no gain to the Wash 14Similar
Q4 3:03
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+7
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for 7 yds to the Wash 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
0.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Wash 12Similar
Q4 2:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+5
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for 5 yds to the Wash 7Similar
Q4 2:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for 2 yds to the Wash 5 Jarret LaCoste fumbled, recovered by OregnSimilar
Q4 1:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.1%
Jarret LaCoste run for no gain to the Wash 5Similar
Q4 1:15
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.1%
Justin Herbert pass incomplete to Dillon MitchellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 32END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:45100% → 100%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Wash 3Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
OWN 3
-1
0.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Wash 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q1 2:37
Myles Gaskin 65 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)
-6.9
TD · Q2 0:21
Jake Browning 7 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)
-3.9
TD · Q3 8:34
Taj Griffin 21 Yd pass from Justin Herbert (Aidan Schneider Kick)
+3.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com