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COLO

Colorado 17 at USC 21

USC
2016 · Week 6 · Oct 8, 2016 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 1:21 · Chris Tilbey punt for 41 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 14 yds to the Colo 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+26.5+13.30−13.3−26.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 131Home team on offense+12.2Pregame prior+3.2Garbage-time factor+7.4Score differential+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Blowout margin−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 11:23: Bryce Bobo pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 67 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK) — COLO win probability +13.3 pts (now 29%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 10:20: Bryce Bobo 10 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Davis Price Kick) — COLO win probability +26.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q4 10:14: Sam Darnold pass incomplete — USC win probability +9.9 pts (now 59%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 8:28: Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +22.2 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 4:49: Davis Price 42 yd FG GOOD — COLO win probability +11.5 pts (now 27%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 14:14COLO 4th & 8 at COLO 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:23USC 4th & 1 at COLO 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 62.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    62.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    62.1%−0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    61.7%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:25COLO 4th & 10 at USC 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:12USC 4th & 8 at COLO 47, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:05COLO 4th & 4 at COLO 48, down 7
    Close callPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.2%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:52COLO 4th & 1 at USC 44, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 21.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    20.2%−1.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:11COLO 4th & 6 at USC 38, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.3%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    20.6%
    38% to make
    Punt
    19.7%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 12:29COLO 4th & 3 at COLO 29, down 14
    Close callPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.7%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:20USC 4th & 6 at COLO 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    77.2%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:57COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 23.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.0%−2.4
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:21USC 4th & 5 at USC 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.6%
    average punt
  12. Q4 14:48COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:07USC 4th & 10 at COLO 49, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:49COLO 4th & 9 at USC 24, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.9%−1.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    14.2%
    68% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−7.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 3 of 3COLO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 3:31USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 3:40USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:23COLO Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    25.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:20COLO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 8:28USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.0%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
COLODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:3638% → 38%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
62.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 8
OWN 23
0
62.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:26
3RD & 8
OWN 23
0
62.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:14
4TH & 8
OWN 23
+5
62.0%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 5 yds to the USC 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 43 yds · 3:0762% → 63%
Q1 14:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
62.0%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+8
62.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 8 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:22
1ST & 10
50
+9
62.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 9 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 1
OPP 41
+13
62.2%
Justin Davis run for 13 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
62.3%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 12:05
2ND & 3
OPP 21
+1
62.4%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 11:36
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+1
62.3%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the Colo 19Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & 1
OPP 19
+1
62.2%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the Colo 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+17
62.5%
Sam Darnold run for 17 yds Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by Colo Ahkello WitherspoonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 3PUNT
11 plays · 33 yds · 3:2938% → 38%
Q1 10:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
61.8%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the Colo 20Similar
Q1 10:34
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
61.8%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+19
62.0%
Steven Montez run for 19 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
61.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Donovan Lee for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 35Similar
Q1 9:00
2ND & 14
OWN 35
+10
61.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 10 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 4
OWN 45
+8
61.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
61.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
61.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
61.3%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyreSimilar
Q1 7:25
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
61.8%
Alex Kinney punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 3:4562% → 67%
Q1 7:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
61.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 3 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+2
61.9%
Sam Darnold run for 2 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q1 6:11
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+18
61.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 18 yds to the USC 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+5
62.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q1 5:11
2ND & 5
OWN 48
+3
62.9%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 4:34
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+4
62.8%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
63.1%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+13
63.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 13 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
67.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 32 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT
13 plays · 18 yds · 3:3134% → 32%
Q1 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
65.7%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q1 2:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
65.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 25Similar
Q1 2:24
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+13
66.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 13 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+16
65.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 16 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
65.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 1:29
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+8
65.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 8 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:29
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-6
64.5%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-6 Yards) to the USC 40Similar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 16
OPP 40
+2
65.7%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 0:33
2ND & 14
OPP 38
-10
66.0%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the USC 47Similar
Q1 0:09
2ND & 23
OPP 47
-16
66.2%
Steven Montez sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 16 yards to the Colo 37Similar
Q1 0:00
3RD & 39
OWN 37
+7
67.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 7 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q2 14:52
4TH & 32
OWN 44
-3
67.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 36 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 36 yds · 1:3367% → 68%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
67.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 23 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
68.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+2
68.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q2 13:30
2ND & 8
OPP 47
0
68.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 13:22
3RD & 8
OPP 47
0
68.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to De'Quan HamptonSimilar
Q2 13:12
4TH & 8
OPP 47
0
67.5%
Chris Tilbey punt for 44 yds, downed at the Colo 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:5532% → 32%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+3
68.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 6Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 7
OWN 6
+9
68.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 9 yds to the Colo 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+17
67.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST down USC Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
67.4%
Tony Julmisse run for 10 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
67.1%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:22
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+6
67.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 6 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 4
OWN 48
0
66.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for no gain to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 10:05
4TH & 4
OWN 48
+1
68.2%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 1 yd to the USC 49 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (7 Yards) to the USC 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
14 plays · 92 yds · 6:2069% → 80%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+10
68.6%
Justin Davis run for 10 yds to the USC 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
69.1%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+12
69.3%
Justin Davis run for 12 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
70.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q2 7:57
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+2
71.9%
Sam Darnold run for 2 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
72.0%
Sam Darnold run for 2 yds to the USC 49Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+13
71.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 13 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+6
71.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the Colo 32Similar
Q2 5:37
2ND & 4
OPP 32
+2
72.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 2 yds to the Colo 30Similar
Q2 5:14
3RD & 2
OPP 30
+5
71.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 5 yds to the Colo 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
72.6%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 4:14
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+11
72.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 11 yds to the Colo 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
79.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 11 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 9DOWNS
14 plays · 27 yds · 3:2122% → 19%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
78.1%
Steven Montez run for 5 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+7
77.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
77.9%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:49
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+7
78.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 7 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q2 2:15
3RD & 3
OPP 46
+2
78.3%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 1:52
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+2
78.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-6
77.6%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Cameron Smith for a loss of 6 yards to the USC 48Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 16
OPP 48
+4
79.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 4 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 12
OPP 44
+6
79.9%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q2 0:11
4TH & 6
OPP 38
0
81.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
86.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11FUMBLE
4 plays · 36 yds · 0:3783% → 83%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
82.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 15 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+6
83.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 6 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 4
OPP 37
+15
83.2%
Justin Davis run for 15 yds to the Colo 22 Justin Davis fumbled, recovered by Colo Afolabi LagudaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2118% → 17%
Q3 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
81.7%
Devin Ross run for 5 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 5
OWN 27
+2
81.2%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 13:20
3RD & 3
OWN 29
0
81.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for no gain to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 12:29
4TH & 3
OWN 29
+47
82.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 47 yds to the Colo 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 13FUMBLE
3 plays · -7 yds · 0:4984% → 84%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
84.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Ronald Jones IISimilar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+4
84.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q3 11:34
3RD & 6
OPP 22
-11
84.3%
Sam Darnold sacked by Addison Gillam for a loss of 11 yards to the Colo 33 Sam Darnold fumbled, recovered by Colo Jordan Carrell , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14TD
1 play · 67 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+67
71.0%
Bryce Bobo pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 67 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 15INT
5 plays · 16 yds · 1:2073% → 77%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
72.9%
Justin Davis run for 5 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
73.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q3 10:26
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
72.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Ronald Jones II for 9 yds to the USC 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+14
76.6%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Kenneth Olugbode return for 14 yds to the USC 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16INT
6 plays · 11 yds · 2:4131% → 30%
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
69.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 9:06
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+1
69.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q3 8:39
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+6
69.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds to the USC 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+6
67.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 6 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 27
-5
67.4%
Steven Montez sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 32Similar
Q3 7:09
3RD & 9
OPP 32
0
69.9%
Steven Montez pass intercepted Adoree' Jackson return for no gain to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 44 yds · 2:2477% → 77%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
77.1%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
77.2%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+34
76.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 34 yds to the Colo 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:28
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
80.3%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 4:46
2ND & 6
OPP 31
0
80.3%
Ronald Jones II run for no gain to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 4:22
3RD & 6
OPP 31
0
79.3%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 6
OPP 31
0
77.4%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:2327% → 24%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
73.4%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 15
OWN 26
+3
74.1%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 3 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 4:09
2ND & 12
OWN 29
0
74.3%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 4:06
3RD & 12
OWN 29
0
75.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:57
4TH & 12
OWN 29
0
76.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 2:2378% → 81%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
77.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 5 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 3:28
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+8
78.3%
Sam Darnold run for 8 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
80.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+2
81.6%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 44Similar
Q3 1:32
3RD & 5
OWN 44
0
80.7%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:21
4TH & 5
OWN 44
+14
80.9%
Chris Tilbey punt for 41 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 14 yds to the Colo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 1:1224% → 23%
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+6
76.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 0:45
2ND & 4
OWN 35
+5
74.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 5 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
75.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 0:27
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
75.6%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 35Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 15
OWN 35
0
77.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & 15
OWN 35
+10
78.5%
Steven Montez run for 10 yds to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 14:48
4TH & 5
OWN 45
0
77.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 42 yds, downed at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 38 yds · 1:2283% → 83%
Q4 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+26
83.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 26 yds to the USC 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
84.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 12 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
85.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the Colo 49Similar
Q4 13:19
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
85.6%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:14
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
84.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q4 13:07
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
83.0%
Chris Tilbey punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jay MacIntyre at the Colo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 22TD
8 plays · 84 yds · 2:4120% → 51%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+21
79.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 21 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
78.7%
Steven Montez run for 4 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 12:08
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
78.1%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q4 12:01
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+11
79.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kabion Ento for 11 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:30
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+37
77.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 37 yds to the USC 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-1
74.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 12Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+2
75.4%
Steven Montez run for 2 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+10
48.8%
Bryce Bobo 10 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Davis Price Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23TD
7 plays · 70 yds · 1:4659% → 89%
Q4 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
58.8%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:58
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+46
57.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 46 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
67.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 11 yds to the Colo 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
67.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q4 8:54
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+6
67.2%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the Colo 7Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 4
OPP 7
+7
89.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 24FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:2717% → 27%
Q4 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
83.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 7:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
81.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 8 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
83.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+11
85.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 11 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
83.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the USC 47Similar
Q4 6:24
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+22
84.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 22 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
81.8%
Steven Montez run for 3 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q4 5:34
2ND & 7
OPP 22
0
82.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
-2
84.3%
Steven Montez sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 2 yards to the USC 24Similar
Q4 4:49
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+42
72.8%
Davis Price 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 25END OF HALF
15 plays · 57 yds · 4:3685% → 96%
Q4 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
85.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 4:10
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
85.7%
Ronald Jones II run for 10 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
87.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 8 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+12
88.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 12 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
90.3%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 1:58
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
91.9%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+25
94.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 25 yds to the Colo 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-2
95.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 16Similar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 12
OPP 16
-1
96.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 17Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 13
OPP 17
-1
96.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:20
Bryce Bobo 10 Yd pass from Steven Montez (Davis Price Kick)
-26.6
TD · Q4 8:28
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 7 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
+22.2
TD · Q3 11:23
Bryce Bobo pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 67 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com