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ORST

Oregon State 6 at Colorado 47

COLO
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Folsom Field
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Win probability · COLO
modelCOLO aheadORST aheadconfidence bandkey playCOLO scoreORST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGTDFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 10:12 · Alex Kinney punt for 41 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 16 yds to the OrgSt 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 175Home team on offense+33.7Pregame prior+6.9Score differential+29.1Blowout margin+15.7Garbage-time factor+12.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+11.7
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 8:15: Garrett Owens 32 yd FG GOOD — ORST win probability +1.7 pts (now 17%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 1:00: Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 33 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK) — COLO win probability +1.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:32: Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 63 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK) — COLO win probability +6.0 pts (now 90%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:45: Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Price KICK) — COLO win probability +5.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:41: Conor Blount pass intercepted for a TD Rick Gamboa return for 20 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK) — COLO win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
COLO made the numbers' call on 5 of 11ORST made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00ORST 4th & 5 at ORST 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:56COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 9, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.8%−0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:15ORST 4th & 4 at COLO 14, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.7%−<0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.1%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:03ORST 4th & 6 at COLO 39, down 3
    Close callPunted · 16.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    16.7%−0.2
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 27 at ORST 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:27ORST 4th & 8 at COLO 22, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.0%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    10.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    6.6%−4.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:45COLO 4th & 1 at ORST 1, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    85.9%−1.6
    94% to make
    Punt
    82.0%−5.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:38ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 21, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.7%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.2%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:50COLO 4th & 8 at ORST 36, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.6%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.7%
    42% to make
    Punt
    95.1%−0.7
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00COLO 4th & 8 at ORST 48, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.8%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:26ORST 4th & 7 at ORST 31, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 10:06COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 34, up 31
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:38COLO 4th & 4 at ORST 4, up 31
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.6%−<0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:30ORST 4th & 21 at COLO 49, down 34
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:12ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 23, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:12COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 44, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:33COLO 4th & 2 at ORST 40, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:33COLO 4th & 2 at COLO 44, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 10:12ORST 4th & 10 at COLO 48, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  20. Q4 8:33ORST 4th & 10 at COLO 48, down 41
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:08ORST 4th & 10 at COLO 48, down 41
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:41COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 27, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 2:41COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 29, up 41
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
COLO made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:09COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:00COLO Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:32COLO Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:45COLO Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:41COLO Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 10:18COLO Touchdown, up 40 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
85.3%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 10 yds to the OrgSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
85.3%
Darell Garretson sacked by Josh Tupou and Jordan Carrell for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+6
85.3%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
85.3%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
85.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 51 yds, downed at the Colo 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
84.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin Ross, broken up by Devin ChappellSimilar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 10
OWN 9
0
84.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q1 12:56
3RD & 10
OWN 9
0
84.7%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Devin RossSimilar
Q1 12:56
4TH & 10
OWN 9
+43
84.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3FG
13 plays · 39 yds · 4:1616% → 17%
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
84.5%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (Ricky Ortiz) to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+7
84.6%
Darell Garretson run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+9
84.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 9 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
84.5%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 39
0
84.5%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 7
OPP 39
+9
84.5%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 9 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
84.4%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+4
84.4%
Darell Garretson run for 4 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 3
OPP 23
+3
84.5%
Darell Garretson run for 3 yds to the Colo 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:31
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
84.4%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:31
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+6
84.4%
Ryan Nall run for 6 yds to the Colo 14Similar
Q1 12:31
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
84.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q1 8:15
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
82.8%
Garrett Owens 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 4TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:0683% → 84%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.9%
Kyle Evans run for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
82.9%
Kyle Evans run for 5 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q1 8:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
83.0%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the Colo 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
83.0%
Kyle Evans run for 5 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+6
83.3%
Kyle Evans run for 6 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
83.3%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the Colo 49Similar
Q1 6:09
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+51
83.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 51 yds for a TD, (Chris Graham PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 17 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+8
82.8%
Artavis Pierce run for 8 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 2
OPP 48
+5
82.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Colo 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
82.7%
Darell Garretson run for 4 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 6:03
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
82.7%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Artavis PierceSimilar
Q1 6:03
3RD & 6
OPP 39
0
82.8%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:03
4TH & 6
OPP 39
0
83.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 25 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD
10 plays · 86 yds · 3:2183% → 85%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
82.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+6
82.5%
Steven Montez run for 6 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 3
OWN 21
+7
82.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
82.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 2
OWN 36
+4
83.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
83.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 12 yds to the OrgSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
83.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q1 4:21
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+4
83.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
83.3%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 4 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+33
85.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 33 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
11 plays · 18 yds · 1:0016% → 15%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
84.4%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 11 yds to the OrgSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
84.1%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+1
83.8%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+5
83.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 5 yds to the OrgSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
83.7%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
83.8%
Darell Garretson run for 11 yds to the Colo 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+3
83.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 37
-20
83.7%
Darell Garretson sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 20 yards to the OrgSt 43 Darell Garretson fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 27
OWN 43
0
84.8%
Nick Porebski punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jay MacIntyre at the Colo 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8TD
5 plays · 87 yds · 1:2884% → 90%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
84.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 15
+8
84.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
84.2%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 6 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+8
84.3%
Steven Montez run for 8 yds to the Colo 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+63
90.4%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 63 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 1:5311% → 13%
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
89.1%
Artavis Pierce run for 17 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
88.7%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:20
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+21
88.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 21 yds to the Colo 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
88.6%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the Colo 22Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
88.6%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
89.0%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr., broken up by Terran HasselbachSimilar
Q2 9:27
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+40
87.4%
Garrett Owens 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:3189% → 95%
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+13
88.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 13 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
89.1%
Phillip Lindsay run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 46Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+4
89.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+14
89.1%
Steven Montez run for 14 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
89.2%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 9:16
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
89.2%
Kyle Evans run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+20
89.0%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kyle Evans for 20 yds to the OrgSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
89.2%
Kyle Evans run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 2Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
89.5%
Kyle Evans run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 6:18
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
89.2%
Kyle Evans run for no gain to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
94.0%
Ryan Nall run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 20Similar
Q2 4:38
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+1
94.1%
Conor Blount pass complete to Ryan Nall for 1 yd to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 4:38
3RD & 6
OWN 21
0
94.1%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Rick GamboaSimilar
Q2 4:38
4TH & 6
OWN 21
+7
94.1%
Nick Porebski punt for 66 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 7 yds to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 2:1696% → 97%
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
95.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 24Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-5
95.7%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Jase Franke) to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+8
95.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Dylan Keeney for 8 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+15
95.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 15 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
95.8%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Shay FieldsSimilar
Q2 3:06
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+20
95.8%
Steven Montez pass complete to Jay MacIntyre for 20 yds to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:06
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
95.9%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 8
OPP 36
0
96.6%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:16
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
96.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Jay MacIntyre, broken up by Bright UgwoegbuSimilar
Q2 0:50
4TH & 8
OPP 36
+54
96.5%
Davis Price 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13INT TD
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
99.1%
Conor Blount pass intercepted for a TD Rick Gamboa return for 20 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q2 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.1%
Ryan Nall run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q2 0:41
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
99.1%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31 Ryan Nall fumbled, forced by Jimmie Gilbert, recovered by OrgSt Ryan NallSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 15PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Devin Ross for 9 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
98.8%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the Colo 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
98.9%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the Colo 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+11
98.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kyle Evans for 11 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+7
98.9%
Kyle Evans run for 7 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 43
-15
98.8%
Evans, Kyle rush for 7 yards to the OSU36 (Chappell, Devin), PENALTY COLO tripping (Irwin, Jeromy) 15 yards to the COLO42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 42
+4
98.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 4 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 46
+6
98.9%
Steven Montez pass complete to Kyle Evans for 6 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 48
0
98.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Victor Bolden Jr. at the OrgSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
99.3%
Artavis Pierce run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.3%
Paul Lucas run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 11:26
2ND & 7
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Paul LucasSimilar
Q3 11:26
3RD & 7
OWN 31
0
99.3%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Ahkello WitherspoonSimilar
Q3 11:26
4TH & 7
OWN 31
+8
99.3%
Nick Porebski punt for 48 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 8 yds to the Colo 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+8
99.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 8 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 2
OWN 37
-5
99.4%
COLORADO Penalty, false start (Gerrad Kough) to the Colo 32Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+2
99.5%
Steven Montez pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 2 yds to the Colo 34Similar
Q3 10:06
3RD & 5
OWN 34
0
99.5%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 10:06
4TH & 5
OWN 34
+14
99.5%
Alex Kinney punt for 57 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 14 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18INT
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
99.4%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 26Similar
Q3 8:44
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
99.4%
Conor Blount pass intercepted Tedric Thompson return for no gain to the Colo 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 3:23100% → 100%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
99.6%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 2 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 8
OPP 49
+2
99.6%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+7
99.7%
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the OrgSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
99.6%
Devin Ross run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 32Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+1
99.6%
Kyle Evans run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+22
99.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 22 yds to the OrgSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
99.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the OrgSt 9Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
99.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 4Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
99.6%
Steven Montez pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 4:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+22
99.7%
Davis Price 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20PUNT
11 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
99.7%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+8
99.7%
Conor Blount run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 2
OWN 40
+11
99.7%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 11 yds to the Colo 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
99.7%
Artavis Pierce run for 5 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+4
99.6%
Conor Blount pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+2
99.6%
Tim Cook run for 2 yds to the Colo 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
99.7%
Conor Blount sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 44Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 16
OPP 44
0
99.7%
Conor Blount pass incomplete to Hunter JarmonSimilar
Q3 4:30
3RD & 16
OPP 44
-5
99.7%
Conor Blount run for 1 yd to the Colo 43 OREGON ST Penalty, illegal forward pass (Conor Blount) to the Colo 49Similar
Q3 4:30
4TH & 21
OPP 49
0
99.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 33 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 5:04100% → 100%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
99.8%
Jordan Gehrke pass incomplete to Bryce BoboSimilar
Q3 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+16
99.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 16 yds to the Colo 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+1
99.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 1 yd to the Colo 33Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 33
+4
99.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 4 yds to the Colo 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+7
99.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 7 yds to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
99.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 1 yd to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+10
99.8%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 10 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
99.8%
Donovan Lee run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Donovan Lee run for no gain to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 43
+13
99.8%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Donovan Lee for 13 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+5
99.8%
Donovan Lee run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 25
0
99.8%
Donovan Lee run for no gain to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 25
+23
99.8%
Jordan Gehrke run for 23 yds to the OrgSt 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.8%
Michael Adkins II run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 1Similar
Q4 10:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Michael Adkins II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
99.9%
Conor Blount run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+5
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 5 yds to the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 1
OWN 28
-14
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Seth Collins) to the OrgSt 14Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 15
OWN 13
+9
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Timmy Hernandez for 9 yds to the OrgSt 23Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 6
OWN 23
+1
99.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Oliver returns for 1 yd to the Colo 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23PUNT
19 plays · 8 yds · 1:39100% → 100%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Donovan Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+9
99.9%
Donovan Lee run for 9 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Donovan Lee run for no gain to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+16
99.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 41 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 16 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
99.9%
Donovan Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 35Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+9
99.9%
Donovan Lee run for 9 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 2
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Donovan Lee run for no gain to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+16
99.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 41 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 16 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 20
OPP 36
+4
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (4 Yards) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-6
99.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Kyle Evans for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Sam Noyer sacked by Tim Cook for 0 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
99.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Devin Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 42
-4
99.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (4 Yards) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 2
OWN 44
0
99.9%
Donovan Lee run for no gain to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
99.9%
Sam Noyer pass complete to Ronnie Blackmon for a loss of 4 yards to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 14
OPP 40
+4
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (4 Yards) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+9
99.9%
Donovan Lee run for 9 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 2
OWN 44
+16
99.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 41 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 16 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24PUNT
26 plays · 21 yds · 4:040% → 0%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-4
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+16
99.9%
Conor Blount run for 1 yd to the Colo 37 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:12
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 10:12
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-6
99.9%
Conor Blount sacked by Drew Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 10:12
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Caleb Saulo run for no gain to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Caleb Saulo run for no gain to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+16
99.9%
Conor Blount run for 1 yd to the Colo 37 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-4
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-6
99.9%
Conor Blount sacked by Drew Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Hunter Jarmon for 5 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+4
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Seth Collins for 4 yds to the OrgSt 40Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-4
99.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 5
OWN 36
+16
99.9%
Conor Blount run for 1 yd to the Colo 37 for a 1ST down COLORADO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Conor Blount pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+6
99.9%
Conor Blount pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 6 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 4
OPP 42
-6
99.9%
Conor Blount sacked by Drew Lewis for a loss of 6 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 6:08
3RD & 16
OWN 42
0
99.9%
Sam Noyer sacked by Tim Cook for 0 yards to the Colo 48Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Beau Bisharat run for no gain to the Colo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25PUNT
7 plays · 9 yds · 7:31100% → 100%
Q4 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Kenneth Olugbode punt for a loss of 48 yards for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
99.9%
Kenneth Olugbode punt for a loss of 48 yards for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 6:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
99.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for 5 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 3
OWN 25
+2
100.0%
Beau Bisharat run for 2 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 1
OWN 27
0
99.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26END OF GAME
3 plays · 5 yds · 2:220% → 0%
Q4 2:41
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Rahmel Dockery at the OrgSt 28Similar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
100.0%
Tim Cook run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 5 yds · 2:22100% → 100%
Q4 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
99.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 5 yds to the Colo 25Similar
Q4 2:41
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
99.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 2 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q4 2:41
3RD & 3
OWN 27
+2
99.9%
Beau Bisharat run for 2 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q4 2:41
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 43 ydsSimilar
Q4 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
100.0%
Tim Cook run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:32
Steven Montez pass complete to Shay Fields for 63 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)
+6
TD · Q2 4:45
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)
+5.8
TD · Q2 0:41
Conor Blount pass intercepted for a TD Rick Gamboa return for 20 yds for a TD, (Davis Price KICK)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com