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ASU

Arizona State 20 at USC 41

USC
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameFG+1.7USC 79.5%Matt Boermeester 49 yd FG GOODAWAY 6 - HOME 17 · Q2 4:39
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 4:39 · Matt Boermeester 49 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 76Home team on offense+8.5Pregame prior+13.7Score differential+2.0Garbage-time factor+3.4Blowout margin−0.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 9:58: Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +3.8 pts (now 76%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 4:39: Matt Boermeester 49 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +1.7 pts (now 80%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:30: Justin Davis run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +6.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q2 0:20: Matt Boermeester 46 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +5.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 11:11: Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 67 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 9ASU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 9:50ASU 4th & 3 at USC 22, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.6%−<0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    29.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:50USC 4th & 2 at USC 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.3%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    70.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 0:44ASU 4th & 12 at USC 16, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.8%−0.6
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.1%−2.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00USC 4th & 7 at ASU 38, up 1
    Close callPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−0.2
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:01ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 17, down 1
    Close callPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.5%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 6:29ASU 4th & 3 at USC 42, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−1.9
    30% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−1.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:39USC 4th & 8 at ASU 31, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.2%
    54% to make
    Punt
    75.2%−1.0
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:30ASU 4th & 18 at ASU 27, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%−1.6
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:20USC 4th & 2 at ASU 28, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%−0.6
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.7%
    60% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−3.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00USC 4th & 1 at USC 31, up 21
    Close callPunted · 93.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.2%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:00ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.5%−0.6
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:11ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 26, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.4%
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:24ASU 4th & 6 at ASU 13, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:47USC 4th & 2 at ASU 35, up 35
    Close callKicked a field goal · 99.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.5%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:47ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 36, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.3%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00USC 4th & 1 at ASU 24, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.6%−0.1
    68% to make
    Punt
    99.2%−0.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 10:57USC 4th & 7 at ASU 19, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    99.4%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:37USC 4th & 2 at USC 29, up 28
    Close callPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.8%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 4:35USC Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    71.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:58USC Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:30USC Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:11USC Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:24USC Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 8:37ASU Touchdown, down 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 1:51ASU Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FG
13 plays · 59 yds · 5:1027% → 28%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
73.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+13
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 13 yds to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 6 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+1
73.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+20
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 20 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 1 yd to the USC 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+3
73.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 3 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+7
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 7 yds to the USC 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for no gain to the USC 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
73.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+7
73.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 3
OPP 22
+40
71.9%
Zane Gonzalez 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2DOWNS
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-5
72.1%
Steven Mitchell Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 29Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 15
OWN 29
+13
72.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 13 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
72.3%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 42Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 2
OWN 42
-4
72.1%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 3 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q1 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
70.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:58
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
70.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 7:58
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
71.0%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Jonathan Lockett return for no gain to the USC 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 4TD
8 plays · 95 yds · 2:3071% → 74%
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 5
0
70.9%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 5Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 10
OWN 5
0
70.9%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 7:05
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+15
70.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 15 yds to the USC 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
71.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 17 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
71.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 5 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+49
71.7%
Justin Davis run for 49 yds to the ArzSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
72.1%
Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 5Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
73.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 5 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:5127% → 29%
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
72.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 49 yds to the USC 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
71.3%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the USC 22Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
71.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the USC 19Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+5
71.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the USC 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
71.3%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 15Similar
Q1 4:35
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-10
71.4%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Chris Hawkins for a loss of 10 yards to the USC 25Similar
Q1 4:35
3RD & 21
OPP 25
+9
72.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 9 yds to the USC 16Similar
Q1 0:44
4TH & 12
OPP 16
+34
71.3%
Zane Gonzalez 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 43 yds · 0:4473% → 71%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
72.6%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+4
72.4%
Ronald Jones II run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 38
0
72.3%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 38
0
71.4%
Chris Tilbey punt for 29 yds, downed at the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1729% → 29%
Q2 14:18
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
71.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q2 14:18
2ND & 8
OWN 11
0
71.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:18
3RD & 8
OWN 11
+6
71.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 6 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 13:01
4TH & 2
OWN 17
0
71.5%
Matt Haack punt for 49 yds, downed at the USC 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:5171% → 76%
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
70.8%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+12
70.6%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
71.9%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 46Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+17
71.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Justin Davis for 17 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
72.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 15 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+21
72.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Justin Davis for 21 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
72.5%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 3Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
72.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 9:58
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
76.3%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9DOWNS
11 plays · 38 yds · 3:2924% → 24%
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
76.3%
Tim White run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+8
76.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 8 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
75.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+18
75.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 18 yds to the USC 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
74.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+5
75.1%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Richard, Demario, PENALTY USC offside 5 yards to the USC44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:58
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
74.2%
Nick Ralston run for 2 yds to the USC 42Similar
Q2 9:58
3RD & 3
OPP 42
0
74.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ellis Jefferson, broken up by Leon McQuay IIISimilar
Q2 6:29
4TH & 3
OPP 42
0
76.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 10FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 1:4678% → 80%
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
78.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 6 yds to the USC 48Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+4
78.1%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
78.2%
[NHSG], Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Whitney, Isaac (Orr, Kareem), PENALTY ASU pass interference (Orr, Kareem) 15 yards to the ASU33, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
78.4%
Steven Mitchell Jr. run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 6:25
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
78.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Ronald Jones IISimilar
Q2 6:25
3RD & 8
OPP 31
0
77.8%
Sam Darnold pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 8
OPP 31
+49
79.5%
Matt Boermeester 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · -15 yds · 1:4819% → 18%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
81.0%
Demario Richard run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
80.4%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny rush for 8 yards to the ASU43 (Hutchings, Michael), PENALTY ASU personal foul (Richard, Demario) 15 yards to the ASU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 25
OWN 20
0
81.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 25
OWN 20
-3
81.2%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 28
OWN 17
-7
81.7%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Uchenna Nwosu for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q2 2:51
4TH & 35
OWN 10
+14
82.2%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 14 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12TD
2 plays · 37 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+37
88.8%
Justin Davis run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-5
88.0%
USC Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13PUNT
7 plays · 3 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+9
86.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 9 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 33
+2
85.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 2 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
85.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ellis JeffersonSimilar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
86.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete, broken up by Stevie Tu'ikolovatuSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 35
-8
86.7%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Rasheem Green for a loss of 8 yards to the ArzSt 27 ARIZONA ST Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 18
OWN 27
0
86.9%
Matt Haack punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Adoree' Jackson at the USC 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 0:4789% → 94%
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
88.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the USC 36Similar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+28
88.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 28 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
89.3%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 36
0
89.2%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Justin DavisSimilar
Q2 1:07
3RD & 10
OPP 36
+8
88.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 8 yds to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+46
94.0%
Matt Boermeester 46 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
92.3%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+5
94.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Taylor McNamara for 5 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 27
0
94.1%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the USC 27Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+4
93.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 31
0
93.6%
Chris Tilbey punt for 43 yds, downed at the ArzSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
93.6%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
93.2%
Brady White pass complete to N'Keal Harry for no gain to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q3 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
0
93.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 13:00
4TH & 5
OWN 31
0
93.7%
Matt Haack punt for 36 yds, downed at the USC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18TD
2 plays · 67 yds · 0:2095% → 99%
Q3 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
95.3%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Taylor McNamara, broken up by Marcus BallSimilar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+67
99.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 67 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
98.9%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q3 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
98.9%
Brady White pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:11
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
98.9%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q3 11:11
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
98.9%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 20TD
6 plays · 67 yds · 1:5599% → 99%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+27
99.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Tyler Petite for 27 yds to the ArzSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
99.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+9
99.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
99.1%
[NHSG], Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Whitney, Isaac, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Orr, Kareem) 15 yards to the ASU13, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+10
99.1%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 10 yds to the ArzSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.4%
Sam Darnold run for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 8:24
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
99.3%
Brady White pass incomplete to N'Keal Harry, broken up by Adoree' JacksonSimilar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
99.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 13Similar
Q3 8:24
3RD & 6
OWN 13
0
99.4%
Brady White pass incomplete to Tim White, broken up by Jonathan LockettSimilar
Q3 8:24
4TH & 6
OWN 13
+2
99.4%
Matt Haack punt for 47 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 2 yds to the USC 15 USC Penalty, Offensive holding (Isaiah Langley) to the USC 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 22MISSED FG
8 plays · 33 yds · 3:3499% → 100%
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+13
99.4%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 13 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
99.5%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 1
OPP 46
0
99.5%
Jalen Greene run for no gain to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+3
99.4%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:21
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
99.5%
Sam Darnold run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 7:21
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+7
99.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 7 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 7:21
3RD & 2
OPP 35
0
99.4%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Justin DavisSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+53
99.6%
Matt Boermeester 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.6%
Nick Ralston run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 9
OWN 36
-1
99.7%
Nick Ralston run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+1
99.7%
Brady White pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 1 yd to the ArzSt 36Similar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 9
OWN 36
0
99.7%
Matt Haack punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 25 , Adoree' Jackson returns for no gain to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 24MISSED FG
14 plays · 56 yds · 5:52100% → 100%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.7%
Justin Davis run for 4 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-15
99.7%
[NHSG], Davis, Justin rush for no gain to the USC29 (Moeakiola, Laiu;Smith, Corey), PENALTY USC personal foul (Simmons, Jordan) 15 yards to the USC14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+10
99.7%
Justin Davis run for 10 yds to the USC 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+15
99.7%
[NHSG], Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Hampton, De'Quan, PENALTY ASU pass interference (Echols, Bryson) 15 yards to the USC39, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+28
99.8%
Justin Davis run for 13 yds to the ARIZONAST 48 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (Gump Hayes) to the ArzSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
99.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 35
0
99.8%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Deontay BurnettSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 35
+11
99.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Michael Pittman Jr. for 11 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 24
+2
99.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
99.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q4 11:50
2ND & 9
OPP 21
0
99.8%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Jalen Greene, broken up by Viliami MoeakiolaSimilar
Q4 11:50
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+2
99.8%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q4 10:57
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+37
99.8%
Matt Boermeester 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD
6 plays · 80 yds · 2:200% → 0%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
99.9%
Nick Ralston run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+41
99.9%
Brady White pass complete to Tim White for 41 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+17
99.9%
Brady White pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 17 yds to the USC 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
99.8%
Nick Ralston run for 2 yds to the USC 17Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+4
99.8%
Nick Ralston run for 4 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 4
OPP 13
+13
99.9%
Brady White pass complete to Raymond Epps for 13 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 26PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
99.9%
[NHSG], Ware, Aca'Cedric rush for 39 yards to the ASU40, out-of-bounds (Chatman, Terrell), PENALTY USC holding (Austin, Jordan) 10 yards to the USC11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 20
OWN 11
+2
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 13Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 18
OWN 13
+2
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 15Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 16
OWN 15
+14
99.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Jalen Greene for 14 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 2
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Chris Tilbey punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Tim White at the ArzSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 66 yds · 4:080% → 1%
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
99.9%
Nick Ralston run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 7
OWN 37
0
99.9%
Brady White pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+10
99.9%
Nick Ralston run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
99.9%
Nick Ralston run for 7 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+8
99.9%
[NHSG], White, Brady pass incomplete to Smith, Cameron, PENALTY USC pass interference (Hawkins, Chris) 8 yards to the USC38, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
99.9%
Brady White pass incomplete, broken up by Chris HawkinsSimilar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.9%
Nick Ralston run for 4 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 5:59
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+15
99.9%
[NHSG], White, Brady pass incomplete to Harvey, Jalen, PENALTY USC pass interference (Langley, Isaiah) 15 yards to the USC19, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:59
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
99.9%
Nick Ralston run for 1 yd to the USC 18Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 9
OPP 18
+8
99.9%
Brady White pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 8 yds to the USC 10Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
99.3%
Nick Ralston run for 10 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 28END OF GAME
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the USC 25Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
99.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 28Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
99.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 1 yd to the USC 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 2:30
Justin Davis run for 37 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
+6.7
FG · Q2 0:20
Matt Boermeester 46 yd FG GOOD
+5.2
TD · Q2 9:58
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
+3.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com