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ARIZ

Arizona 24 at UCLA 45

UCLA
2016 · Week 5 · Oct 1, 2016 · Rose Bowl
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Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadARIZ aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreARIZ score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:29 · Josh Pollack punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCLA 4
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout marginPregame prior
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 101Home team on offense+5.3Score differential+1.3Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.7Blowout margin+0.7Pregame prior−1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:00: Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 62 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +7.9 pts (now 57%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:38: Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 19 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +11.4 pts (now 80%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:53: Josh Pollack 20 yd FG GOOD — ARIZ win probability +5.8 pts (now 16%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 14:15: Josh Rosen run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK) — UCLA win probability +5.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:04: Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 31 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK) — ARIZ win probability +10.0 pts (now 12%) (top driver: ARIZ has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 8ARIZ made the numbers' call on 10 of 12
  1. Q1 13:18ARIZ 4th & 5 at ARIZ 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.8%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43UCLA 4th & 6 at UCLA 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.3%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:42UCLA 4th & 1 at UCLA 47, tied
    Close callPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:14ARIZ 4th & 1 at UCLA 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    54.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    52.8%−1.2
    38% to make
    Punt
    52.8%−1.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:03ARIZ 4th & 6 at ARIZ 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:33UCLA 4th & 5 at ARIZ 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.2%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.4%
    79% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−3.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:32ARIZ 4th & 2 at ARIZ 28, down 7
    Close callPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.4%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:00UCLA 4th & 3 at ARIZ 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.9
    54% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.7
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:17ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%−0.9
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.2%
    average punt
  11. Q2 6:53UCLA 4th & 10 at UCLA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−1.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.6%
    average punt
  12. Q2 5:06ARIZ 4th & 11 at ARIZ 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  13. Q2 3:38UCLA 4th & 4 at UCLA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.6%
    average punt
  14. Q2 2:50ARIZ 4th & 7 at ARIZ 27, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  15. Q2 1:30UCLA 4th & 16 at UCLA 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−2.1
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  16. Q2 0:29ARIZ 4th & 7 at UCLA 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.3%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 11:15ARIZ 4th & 14 at ARIZ 20, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.4%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.6%
    average punt
  18. Q3 9:12UCLA 4th & 2 at ARIZ 22, up 14
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 81.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    80.1%−1.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    72.5%−8.7
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:53ARIZ 4th & 3 at UCLA 3, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 10.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.4%−1.7
    93% to make
    Punt
    0.2%−10.9
    average punt
  20. Q4 7:10ARIZ 4th & 8 at ARIZ 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 6 of 6ARIZ made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 11:07ARIZ Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:18UCLA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    45.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:00UCLA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:38UCLA Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:15UCLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:04ARIZ Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 8:37UCLA Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:30UCLA Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:38ARIZ Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ARIZDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:3052% → 52%
Q1 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+1
47.6%
Nick Wilson run for 1 yd to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 14:22
2ND & 9
OWN 17
0
47.6%
Brandon Dawkins run for no gain to the Ariz 17Similar
Q1 13:52
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+4
47.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Trey Griffey for 4 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q1 13:18
4TH & 5
OWN 21
0
48.0%
Josh Pollack punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:2948% → 48%
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
48.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 4 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
48.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q1 12:51
3RD & 6
OWN 41
0
48.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 6
OWN 41
0
47.9%
Austin Kent punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 3TD
5 plays · 79 yds · 1:2852% → 54%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+30
48.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 30 yds to the UCLA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
47.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Cam DensonSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+34
47.8%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Trey Griffey for 34 yds to the UCLA 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
47.7%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+12
46.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Samajie Grant for 12 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
6 plays · 40 yds · 1:3047% → 50%
Q1 10:48
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
47.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 8 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q1 10:20
2ND & 2
OPP 32
+16
47.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 16 yds to the Ariz 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
47.5%
Ishmael Adams run for 14 yds to the Ariz 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
47.5%
Nate Starks run for no gain to the Ariz 2Similar
Q1 9:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
49.7%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 23 yds · 2:0751% → 51%
Q1 9:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
48.7%
Tyrell Johnson run for no gain to the Ariz 25Similar
Q1 8:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.7%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
49.0%
Brandon Dawkins run for 18 yds to the Ariz 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
48.1%
Nick Wilson run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q1 7:15
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
48.1%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q1 7:08
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
48.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Shun Brown, broken up by Fabian MoreauSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
49.0%
Josh Pollack punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Adarius Pickett at the UCLA 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 3:1349% → 50%
Q1 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 11
-2
49.0%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 9Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 12
OWN 9
0
49.0%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Soso JamaboSimilar
Q1 6:22
3RD & 12
OWN 9
+15
48.6%
Rosen, Josh pass incomplete to Adams, Ishmael, PENALTY ARIZONA pass interference (Cruikshank, Dane) 15 yards to the UCLA24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN UCLA.Similar
Q1 6:14
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+1
49.2%
Nate Starks run for 1 yd to the UCLA 25Similar
Q1 5:42
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+13
49.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 13 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
49.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 2 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q1 4:47
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
50.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 7 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 4:17
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
50.3%
Nate Starks run for no gain to the UCLA 47Similar
Q1 3:42
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
50.1%
Austin Kent punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 7DOWNS
10 plays · 39 yds · 3:2151% → 51%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
49.5%
Nick Wilson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
49.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 2:58
3RD & 6
OWN 22
0
50.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q1 2:58
4TH & 6
OWN 22
+15
50.5%
UCLA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Ariz 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
49.1%
Nick Wilson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 40Similar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 7
OWN 40
+13
48.4%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for 13 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
47.9%
Tyrell Johnson run for 2 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+2
48.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Shun Brown for 2 yds to the UCLA 43Similar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+5
48.2%
Tyrell Johnson run for 5 yds to the UCLA 38Similar
Q1 0:14
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
48.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Nate Phillips for no gain to the UCLA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8TD
1 play · 62 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
56.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 62 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:4644% → 42%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
55.7%
Tyrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 14:20
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
55.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Tyrell Johnson for 5 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q2 13:50
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
56.0%
Tyrell Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ariz 29 Tyrell Johnson fumbled, forced by Randall Goforth, recovered by Ariz Trey GriffeySimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
57.6%
Josh Pollack punt for 41 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 10 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10MISSED FG
6 plays · 42 yds · 1:2558% → 58%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
58.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q2 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+37
58.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 37 yds to the Ariz 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
59.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+5
59.3%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 5 yds to the Ariz 18Similar
Q2 11:39
3RD & 5
OPP 18
0
59.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Nate Iese, broken up by Demetrius Flannigan-FowlesSimilar
Q2 11:33
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+36
58.2%
JJ Molson 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5543% → 40%
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
57.5%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
57.7%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 10
OWN 20
+8
59.6%
Tyrell Johnson run for 8 yds to the Ariz 28Similar
Q2 10:32
4TH & 2
OWN 28
0
59.9%
Josh Pollack punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12DOWNS
8 plays · 31 yds · 2:2761% → 62%
Q2 10:27
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
60.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren Andrews, broken up by Jace WhittakerSimilar
Q2 10:22
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
60.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q2 10:16
3RD & 10
OWN 38
+5
59.8%
Rosen, Josh pass complete to Adams, Ishmael for 9 yards to the UCLA47, PENALTY ARIZONA offside 5 yards to the UCLA43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:48
3RD & 5
OWN 43
+19
60.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 19 yds to the Ariz 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:16
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
62.2%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the Ariz 36Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+5
62.5%
Nate Starks run for 5 yds to the Ariz 31Similar
Q2 8:07
3RD & 3
OPP 31
0
63.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q2 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 31
0
62.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Eldridge MassingtonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3239% → 37%
Q2 7:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
61.0%
Tyrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
61.0%
Zach Werlinger pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 7
OWN 34
0
61.8%
Zach Werlinger pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q2 7:17
4TH & 7
OWN 34
+3
62.7%
Josh Pollack punt for 42 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 3 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1863% → 61%
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
62.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III, broken up by Dane CruikshankSimilar
Q2 7:06
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
62.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Nate IeseSimilar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
61.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Ishmael Adams, broken up by Justin BelknapSimilar
Q2 6:53
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
60.9%
Austin Kent punt for 27 yds, downed at the Ariz 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 1:4140% → 36%
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
60.1%
Brandon Dawkins run for 2 yds to the Ariz 48Similar
Q2 6:18
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+3
60.3%
Tyrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 5:41
3RD & 5
OPP 49
-6
60.5%
Brandon Dawkins sacked by Kenny Young for a loss of 6 yards to the Ariz 45Similar
Q2 5:06
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
64.0%
Josh Pollack punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1564% → 64%
Q2 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
64.1%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 34Similar
Q2 4:23
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+2
65.0%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 3:46
3RD & 4
OWN 36
0
65.1%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Ishmael Adams, broken up by Dane CruikshankSimilar
Q2 3:38
4TH & 4
OWN 36
0
63.8%
Austin Kent punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:4436% → 34%
Q2 3:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
63.9%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 3:20
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+3
64.2%
Brandon Dawkins pass complete to Cam Denson for 3 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q2 2:57
3RD & 7
OWN 27
0
65.0%
Brandon Dawkins pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q2 2:50
4TH & 7
OWN 27
+1
65.6%
Josh Pollack punt for 32 yds , Mossi Johnson returns for 1 yd to the UCLA 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:5767% → 64%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
66.7%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 6 yards to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 16
OWN 36
0
65.4%
Soso Jamabo run for no gain to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 1:37
3RD & 16
OWN 36
0
64.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Mossi JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:30
4TH & 16
OWN 36
0
63.8%
Austin Kent punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Nate Phillips at the Ariz 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 16 yds · 0:5536% → 35%
Q2 1:24
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
64.4%
Tyrell Johnson run for 13 yds to the Ariz 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
62.7%
Zach Werlinger run for 3 yds to the UCLA 49Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
62.1%
Zach Werlinger pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:39
3RD & 7
OPP 49
0
63.0%
Zach Werlinger pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q2 0:29
4TH & 7
OPP 49
0
65.4%
Josh Pollack punt for 45 yds, downed at the UCLA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-1
65.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 21TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 2:1466% → 80%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
65.8%
Nate Starks run for 6 yds to the UCLA 41Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
67.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 5 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:09
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
68.1%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 13:39
2ND & 6
50
+29
68.5%
Nate Starks run for 29 yds to the Ariz 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
69.0%
Nate Starks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 24Similar
Q3 12:58
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+5
68.7%
ARIZONA Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Ariz 19Similar
Q3 12:38
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+19
80.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 19 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 1:0822% → 20%
Q3 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
78.3%
Tyrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the Ariz 27Similar
Q3 11:47
2ND & 7
OWN 27
-7
78.3%
Zach Werlinger sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 7 yards to the Ariz 20Similar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 14
OWN 20
0
79.7%
Zach Werlinger pass incomplete to Nate PhillipsSimilar
Q3 11:15
4TH & 14
OWN 20
+33
80.1%
Josh Pollack punt for 43 yds , Adarius Pickett returns for 33 yds to the Ariz 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 23FG
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4382% → 88%
Q3 10:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
81.6%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the Ariz 26Similar
Q3 10:27
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+5
81.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 5 yds to the Ariz 21Similar
Q3 9:45
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-1
82.4%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 1 yard to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+39
87.7%
JJ Molson 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 24FG
17 plays · 87 yds · 5:4414% → 16%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+3
85.8%
Khalil Tate run for 3 yds to the Ariz 13Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 7
OWN 13
+12
86.3%
Tyrell Johnson run for 12 yds to the Ariz 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.2%
Khalil Tate run for 9 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
85.0%
Tyrell Johnson run for 9 yds to the Ariz 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
86.8%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 49
0
86.4%
Khalil Tate run for no gain to the Ariz 49Similar
Q3 6:39
3RD & 4
OWN 49
+10
87.1%
Khalil Tate run for 10 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
87.6%
Zach Green run for 1 yd to the UCLA 40Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+15
87.8%
Tate, Khalil pass incomplete to Griffey, Trey, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Moreau, Fabian) 15 yards to the UCLA25, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q3 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+9
86.6%
Khalil Tate run for 9 yds to the UCLA 16Similar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 1
OPP 16
+9
86.8%
Zach Green run for 9 yds to the UCLA 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
88.0%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the UCLA 5Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
88.4%
Zach Green run for 3 yds to the UCLA 2Similar
Q3 3:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
89.5%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 3:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
89.9%
ARIZONA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 8Similar
Q3 2:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
84.1%
Josh Pollack 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 25TD
10 plays · 68 yds · 3:2490% → 98%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
89.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 12 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
90.7%
Nate Starks run for 1 yd to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+14
90.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 14 yds to the Ariz 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+12
91.5%
Nate Starks run for 12 yds to the Ariz 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
91.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
91.8%
Nate Starks run for 7 yds to the Ariz 22Similar
Q3 0:11
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+21
91.9%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 21 yds to the Ariz 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
92.4%
Josh Rosen run for no gain to the Ariz 1Similar
Q4 14:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
98.1%
Josh Rosen run for 1 yd for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 26TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 2:562% → 12%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
98.0%
Khalil Tate run for a loss of 3 yards to the Ariz 17Similar
Q4 13:35
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+8
98.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 8 yds to the Ariz 25Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+6
98.2%
Khalil Tate run for 6 yds to the Ariz 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
98.1%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 12:30
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+9
98.1%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 9 yds to the Ariz 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:08
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
98.2%
Tyrell Johnson run for 4 yds to the Ariz 46Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+11
98.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cedric Peterson for 11 yds to the UCLA 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
98.3%
Khalil Tate run for 12 yds to the UCLA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+31
88.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 31 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 27TD
6 plays · 45 yds · 2:0894% → 99%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
94.1%
Kenneth Walker III run for 8 yds to the Ariz 37Similar
Q4 10:16
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+4
94.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 4 yds to the Ariz 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
94.8%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 9:13
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
94.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the Ariz 29Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+29
98.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 29 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 28PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 1:201% → 1%
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.7%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Trey GriffeySimilar
Q4 8:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
98.8%
Tyrell Johnson run for 7 yds to the Ariz 32Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
98.7%
Tate, Khalil pass incomplete to Grant, Samajie (Johnson, John), PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Johnson, John) 15 yards to the ARIZONA47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q4 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
98.7%
Khalil Tate run for 2 yds to the Ariz 49Similar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
98.8%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun BrownSimilar
Q4 7:19
3RD & 8
OWN 49
0
98.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Shun Brown, broken up by Octavius SpencerSimilar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 8
OWN 49
0
98.9%
Josh Pollack punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCLA 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 29TD
8 plays · 96 yds · 3:3199% → 100%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 4
-3
98.9%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCLA 1Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 13
OWN 1
0
99.0%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Kenneth Walker III) to the UCLA 1Similar
Q4 6:02
2ND & 13
OWN 1
+16
99.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 16 yds to the UCLA 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+24
99.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 24 yds to the UCLA 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
99.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren Andrews, broken up by DaVonte' NealSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
99.3%
Soso Jamabo run for no gain to the UCLA 41Similar
Q4 4:01
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+33
99.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 33 yds to the Ariz 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+26
99.9%
Darren Andrews run for 26 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ARIZDrive 30TD
10 plays · 76 yds · 2:410% → 1%
Q4 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Khalil Tate pass incomplete to Samajie GrantSimilar
Q4 3:11
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+9
99.9%
Zach Green run for 9 yds to the Ariz 33Similar
Q4 2:50
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+15
99.9%
Tate, Khalil pass incomplete to Griffey, Trey, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Fisher, Denzel) 15 yards to the ARIZONA48, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN ARIZONA.Similar
Q4 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
99.9%
Khalil Tate run for 4 yds to the UCLA 48Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+18
99.9%
Khalil Tate run for 18 yds to the UCLA 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
99.9%
Tyrell Johnson run for 6 yds to the UCLA 24Similar
Q4 1:18
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+3
99.9%
Tyrell Johnson run for 3 yds to the UCLA 21Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+8
99.9%
Zach Green run for 8 yds to the UCLA 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:38
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
99.3%
Khalil Tate pass complete to Cam Denson for 13 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 31END OF GAME
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
99.6%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the Ariz 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 12:38
Josh Rosen pass complete to Theo Howard for 19 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q4 11:04
Khalil Tate pass complete to Shun Brown for 31 yds for a TD, (Josh Pollack KICK)
-10
TD · Q1 0:00
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 62 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)
+7.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com