Try the model
STAN

Stanford 22 at UCLA 13

UCLA
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Rose Bowl
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UCLA
modelUCLA aheadSTAN aheadconfidence bandkey playUCLA scoreSTAN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:37 · Jake Bailey punt for 46 yds, downed at the UCLA 1
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 90Home team on offense+4.9Garbage-time factor−0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.5Pregame prior−1.0Score differential+1.7Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 2:01: JJ Molson 27 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +4.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  2. FG · Q3 3:10: Conrad Ukropina 37 yd FG GOOD — STAN win probability +6.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  3. FG · Q4 6:32: JJ Molson 35 yd FG GOOD — UCLA win probability +11.0 pts (now 78%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:24: Ryan Burns pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +75.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
  5. SACK · Q4 0:00: Josh Rosen sacked by Joey Alfieri for a loss of 5 yards Josh Rosen fumbled, forced by Joey Alfieri, recovered by Stanf Solomon Thomas , return for 0 yards , return for 42 yds — STAN win probability +13.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: UCLA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCLA made the numbers' call on 5 of 8STAN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 9:05STAN 4th & 9 at UCLA 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.8%
    77% to make
    Punt
    53.0%−0.8
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16UCLA 4th & 5 at UCLA 30, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.6%
    average punt
  3. Q2 13:00STAN 4th & 10 at STAN 47, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:11UCLA 4th & 12 at UCLA 24, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−1.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:01UCLA 4th & 8 at STAN 10, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.5%
    88% to make
    Punt
    51.9%−4.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 12:53UCLA 4th & 2 at STAN 48, up 7
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.6 ptsPunted · 65.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.4%−1.6
    average punt
  7. Q3 8:37STAN 4th & 6 at UCLA 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.1%
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:06UCLA 4th & 8 at UCLA 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 70.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.5%−1.8
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%
    average punt
  9. Q3 3:10STAN 4th & 9 at UCLA 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.5%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−11.0
    average punt
  10. Q3 0:28UCLA 4th & 4 at STAN 33, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−2.2
    49% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−4.2
    average punt
  11. Q4 10:55STAN 4th & 5 at UCLA 27, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.9%
    62% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−10.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 6:32UCLA 4th & 2 at STAN 18, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.6 ptsKicked a field goal · 65.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.5%
    56% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%−3.6
    79% to make
    Punt
    42.8%−21.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 4:40STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 39, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 7.4 ptsPunted · 29.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.7%−7.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 2:05UCLA 4th & 2 at UCLA 46, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 3.1 ptsPunted · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.1%−3.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCLA made the numbers' call on 1 of 1STAN made the numbers' call on 0 of 1
  1. Q1 0:18UCLA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q4 0:24STAN Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    76.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    76.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
STANDrive 1FG
13 plays · 50 yds · 5:4253% → 52%
Q1 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
47.4%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 10 yds to the Stanf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
47.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q1 13:37
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+3
47.5%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Michael Rector for 3 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+7
47.6%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 7 yds to the UCLA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:32
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+13
47.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+13
47.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 13 yds to the UCLA 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-10
47.6%
Burns, Ryan rush for 2 yards to the UCLA18, PENALTY STANFORD holding (Caspers, Johnny) 10 yards to the UCLA30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 20
OPP 30
-5
47.7%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (David Bright) to the UCLA 35Similar
Q1 10:33
1ST & 25
OPP 35
+3
47.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 22
OPP 32
+13
48.0%
Ryan Burns run for 13 yds to the UCLA 19Similar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 9
OPP 19
0
48.1%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Christian McCaffreySimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 9
OPP 19
+37
48.1%
Conrad Ukropina 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:4448% → 48%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.9%
Soso Jamabo run for 3 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q1 8:26
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
48.1%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 26Similar
Q1 7:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+4
47.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 4 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
47.6%
Austin Kent punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Stanf 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3INT
8 plays · 35 yds · 3:4852% → 53%
Q1 7:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
48.1%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Michael RectorSimilar
Q1 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+4
48.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 27Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 6
OWN 27
+10
48.5%
Burns, Ryan pass sacked for loss of 6 yards to the STANFORD21 (Hollins, Deon), PENALTY UCLA holding (Young, Kenny) 10 yards to the STANFORD37, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q1 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
48.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the Stanf 38Similar
Q1 5:15
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+3
47.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q1 4:40
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+8
47.9%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 8 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+9
47.5%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 1
OPP 42
+40
47.2%
Ryan Burns pass intercepted Kenny Young return for 40 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 4TD
6 plays · 26 yds · 2:5150% → 53%
Q1 3:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
50.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Soso Jamabo for 4 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q1 2:28
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+3
50.1%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the Stanf 19Similar
Q1 1:56
3RD & 3
OPP 19
+4
49.5%
Ishmael Adams run for 4 yds to the Stanf 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
50.3%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the Stanf 13Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+3
50.4%
Nate Starks run for 3 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q1 0:18
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
53.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 10 yds for a TD, (JJ Molson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 12 yds · 2:1048% → 47%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
51.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 12 yds to the Stanf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
50.8%
Keller Chryst pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 6 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q2 14:19
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-1
50.5%
Bryce Love run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCLA 48Similar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 5
OPP 48
-5
51.1%
STANFORD Penalty, Substitution Infraction (-5 Yards) to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 13:12
3RD & 10
OWN 47
0
52.0%
Keller Chryst pass incomplete to Dalton Schultz, broken up by Tahaan GoodmanSimilar
Q2 13:00
4TH & 10
OWN 47
0
53.4%
Jake Bailey punt for 48 yds, downed at the UCLA 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:4353% → 52%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+2
52.7%
Soso Jamabo run for 2 yds to the UCLA 7Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 8
OWN 7
+7
52.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 7 yds to the UCLA 14Similar
Q2 11:55
3RD & 1
OWN 14
+12
52.3%
Soso Jamabo run for 12 yds to the UCLA 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
53.5%
Josh Rosen run for 2 yds to the UCLA 28Similar
Q2 11:00
2ND & 8
OWN 28
-4
53.6%
Soso Jamabo run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCLA 24Similar
Q2 10:18
3RD & 12
OWN 24
0
52.6%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Jordan LasleySimilar
Q2 10:11
4TH & 12
OWN 24
0
52.1%
Austin Kent punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 42 yds · 3:0347% → 46%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
52.7%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Dalton Schultz, broken up by Jaleel WadoodSimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+4
52.6%
Ryan Burns run for 4 yds to the Stanf 42Similar
Q2 9:12
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+11
52.6%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 11 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
51.6%
Irwin, Trenton pass incomplete to Burns, Ryan, PENALTY UCLA pass interference (Brown, Jayon) 15 yards to the UCLA32, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN STANFORD.Similar
Q2 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
50.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q2 7:44
2ND & 7
OPP 29
-8
51.2%
Ryan Burns sacked by Jacob Tuioti-Mariner for a loss of 8 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 7:03
3RD & 15
OPP 37
+17
54.3%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Francis Owusu for 17 yds Francis Owusu fumbled, forced by Tahaan Goodman, recovered by UCLA Adarius PickettSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 8FG
13 plays · 70 yds · 4:5456% → 64%
Q2 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
55.8%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 6:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+14
55.7%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 14 yds to the UCLA 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
56.3%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+1
56.9%
Nate Starks run for 1 yd to the UCLA 37Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+10
56.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Ishmael Adams for 10 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:36
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
58.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 6 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q2 4:11
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+3
59.4%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 3 yds to the Stanf 44Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+4
59.0%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the Stanf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+28
60.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 28 yds to the Stanf 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
60.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+2
60.7%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the Stanf 10Similar
Q2 2:05
3RD & 8
OPP 10
0
59.9%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Caleb Wilson, broken up by Alameen MurphySimilar
Q2 2:01
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
64.2%
JJ Molson 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9END OF HALF
8 plays · 8 yds · 1:0737% → 36%
Q2 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
63.1%
Bryce Love run for 4 yds to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 1:28
2ND & 6
OWN 31
0
62.6%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Trenton Irwin, broken up by Nate MeadorsSimilar
Q2 1:21
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+7
63.9%
Ryan Burns pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 7 yds to the Stanf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-2
61.6%
Ryan Burns sacked by Takkarist McKinley for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 36Similar
Q2 0:42
2ND & 12
OWN 36
-5
63.2%
STANFORD Penalty, False Start (David Bright) to the Stanf 31Similar
Q2 0:31
2ND & 17
OWN 31
+4
63.7%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the Stanf 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:5066% → 66%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+25
65.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 25 yds to the UCLA 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-7
67.9%
Josh Rosen sacked by Solomon Thomas for a loss of 7 yards to the UCLA 37Similar
Q3 13:37
2ND & 17
OWN 37
0
66.3%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker IIISimilar
Q3 13:24
3RD & 17
OWN 37
+15
65.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 15 yds to the Stanf 48Similar
Q3 12:53
4TH & 2
OPP 48
0
66.3%
Austin Kent punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 33 yds · 4:0935% → 34%
Q3 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
65.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the Stanf 26Similar
Q3 12:07
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+8
65.0%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
65.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q3 11:10
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+8
63.7%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 8 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+4
62.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 10:14
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+2
62.5%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the UCLA 45Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 4
OPP 45
+3
63.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the UCLA 42Similar
Q3 8:48
4TH & 1
OPP 42
-5
64.9%
STANFORD Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the UCLA 47Similar
Q3 8:37
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
66.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 46 yds, downed at the UCLA 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 12PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 2:3169% → 70%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
68.7%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Nate Iese) to the UCLA 1Similar
Q3 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+2
68.7%
Nate Starks run for 2 yds to the UCLA 3Similar
Q3 8:00
2ND & 8
OWN 3
+9
70.0%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Jordan Lasley for 9 yds to the UCLA 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+13
71.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Kenneth Walker III for 13 yds to the UCLA 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
71.5%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the UCLA 29Similar
Q3 6:59
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-2
72.0%
Nate Starks run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCLA 27Similar
Q3 6:17
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
70.7%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Austin RobertsSimilar
Q3 6:06
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
70.0%
Austin Kent punt for 43 yds, downed at the Stanf 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13FG
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:3933% → 40%
Q3 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
67.4%
Ryan Burns run for 9 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+10
65.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+30
65.8%
Bryce Love run for 30 yds to the UCLA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:55
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
62.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd to the UCLA 20Similar
Q3 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
63.0%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete, broken up by Nick TerrySimilar
Q3 3:15
3RD & 9
OPP 20
0
66.3%
Ryan Burns pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:10
4TH & 9
OPP 20
+37
60.1%
Conrad Ukropina 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 14DOWNS
8 plays · 33 yds · 2:3666% → 68%
Q3 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
66.2%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Darren AndrewsSimilar
Q3 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
65.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Austin Roberts for 7 yds to the UCLA 32Similar
Q3 2:15
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+29
66.1%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Caleb Wilson for 29 yds to the Stanf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
70.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 1 yd to the Stanf 38Similar
Q3 1:12
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+5
70.8%
Soso Jamabo run for 5 yds to the Stanf 33Similar
Q3 0:34
3RD & 4
OPP 33
0
70.4%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Ishmael AdamsSimilar
Q3 0:28
4TH & 4
OPP 33
-9
68.4%
Josh Rosen sacked by Harrison Phillips for a loss of 9 yards to the Stanf 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 4:2640% → 43%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-1
60.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for a loss of 1 yard to the Stanf 41Similar
Q4 14:53
2ND & 11
OWN 41
+8
61.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 8 yds to the Stanf 49Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+6
58.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 6 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
58.2%
Bryce Love run for 9 yds to the UCLA 36Similar
Q4 13:02
2ND & 1
OPP 36
-5
57.7%
Burns, Ryan pass incomplete, PENALTY STANFORD illegal formation 5 yards to the UCLA41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:56
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+9
58.3%
Christian McCaffrey run for 9 yds to the UCLA 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
56.9%
Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the UCLA 30Similar
Q4 11:42
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+3
56.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 3 yds to the UCLA 27Similar
Q4 11:01
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
58.4%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q4 10:55
4TH & 5
OPP 27
+44
56.7%
Conrad Ukropina 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 16FG
11 plays · 57 yds · 4:1660% → 78%
Q4 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
60.4%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 20 yds to the UCLA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
64.8%
Nate Starks run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 10:00
2ND & 5
50
+4
65.4%
Nate Starks run for 4 yds to the Stanf 46Similar
Q4 9:33
3RD & 1
OPP 46
+4
64.9%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the Stanf 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
66.3%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Nate Iese for 16 yds to the Stanf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
67.6%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 4 yds to the Stanf 22Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 6
OPP 22
-5
68.5%
UCLA Penalty, False Start (Najee Toran) to the Stanf 27Similar
Q4 7:42
2ND & 11
OPP 27
+9
68.5%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 9 yds to the Stanf 18Similar
Q4 7:09
3RD & 2
OPP 18
0
66.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for no gain to the Stanf 18Similar
Q4 6:32
4TH & 2
OPP 18
+35
77.5%
JJ Molson 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17FUMBLE
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:4035% → 28%
Q4 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
65.0%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Trenton IrwinSimilar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+7
66.8%
Christian McCaffrey run for 7 yds to the Stanf 37Similar
Q4 5:35
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+2
64.0%
Ryan Burns run for 2 yds to the Stanf 39Similar
Q4 4:40
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+1
72.3%
Jake Bailey punt for 48 yds , Ishmael Adams returns for 1 yd to the UCLA 14 Ishmael Adams fumbled, recovered by UCLA Ishmael AdamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 18PUNT
7 plays · 32 yds · 2:2884% → 90%
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
83.5%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 1 yd to the UCLA 15Similar
Q4 3:46
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+23
84.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 23 yds to the UCLA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:23
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
87.2%
Bolu Olorunfunmi run for 2 yds to the UCLA 40Similar
Q4 2:31
3RD & 6
OWN 42
+4
89.8%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Eldridge Massington for 4 yds to the UCLA 46Similar
Q4 2:05
4TH & 2
OWN 46
+24
89.9%
Austin Kent punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the STANFORD 15 for a 1ST down UCLA Penalty, Kick Catching Interference (Marcus Rios) to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:3413% → 95%
Q4 1:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+23
86.7%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 23 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
82.8%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+14
85.0%
Ryan Burns pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 14 yds to the UCLA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
80.1%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to JJ Arcega-WhitesideSimilar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+14
82.7%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 14 yds to the UCLA 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
80.1%
Ryan Burns pass incomplete to Michael Rector, broken up by Fabian MoreauSimilar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
81.0%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 7 yds to the UCLA 12Similar
Q4 0:29
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+4
82.6%
Christian McCaffrey run for 4 yds to the UCLA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
80.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
4.9%
Ryan Burns pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCLADrive 20END OF GAME TD
5 plays · 19 yds · 0:1017% → 5%
Q4 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+24
17.2%
Josh Rosen pass complete to Darren Andrews for 24 yds to the UCLA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
20.5%
Josh Rosen pass incomplete to Kenneth Walker III, broken up by Justin ReidSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+42
4.6%
Josh Rosen sacked by Joey Alfieri for a loss of 5 yards Josh Rosen fumbled, forced by Joey Alfieri, recovered by Stanf Solomon Thomas , return for 0 yards , return for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:24
Ryan Burns pass complete to JJ Arcega-Whiteside for 8 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
-75.7
SACK · Q4 0:00
Josh Rosen sacked by Joey Alfieri for a loss of 5 yards Josh Rosen fumbled, forced by Joey Alfieri, recovered by Stanf Solomon Thomas , return for 0 yards , return for 42 yds
-13.9
FG · Q4 6:32
JJ Molson 35 yd FG GOOD
+11
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com