Try the model
CAL

California 41 at Arizona State 51

ASU
2016 · Week 4 · Sep 24, 2016 · Mountain America Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadCAL aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreCAL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · Dylan Klumph punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 48 , Tim White returns for 31 yds to the ArzSt 48
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 5Pregame prior+19.2Home team on offense+0.0Score differential+0.0Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q4 9:44: Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +26.1 pts (now 66%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 9:06: Davis Webb pass complete to Tre Watson for 74 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +30.3 pts (now 75%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 6:21: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 30 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +34.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 0:54: Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 26 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +27.0 pts (now 34%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:48: Noah Beito on-side kick recovered by ARIZONA ST at the Cal 0 , DJ Calhoun return for 42 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +29.4 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 5 of 9CAL made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:45ASU 4th & 3 at CAL 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 68.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    67.9%−0.2
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    68.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:52CAL 4th & 8 at ASU 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    36.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    35.3%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:52ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 63.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:15CAL 4th & 12 at CAL 8, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.2%−0.7
    21% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.8%
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:56ASU 4th & 11 at CAL 17, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.7%−0.9
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.6%
    80% to make
    Punt
    56.6%−3.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00CAL 4th & 3 at ASU 30, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    37.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    36.5%−0.5
    56% to make
    Punt
    35.7%−1.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:34ASU 4th & 2 at ASU 33, down 11
    Close callPunted · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.4%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q2 8:15CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 40, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.0%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 7:02ASU 4th & 9 at ASU 46, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 3:19CAL 4th & 3 at ASU 3, up 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 54.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.9%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.1%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    48.4%−5.5
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:01CAL 4th & 10 at ASU 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−1.2
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.7%
    56% to make
    Punt
    55.5%−2.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:15ASU 4th & 1 at CAL 26, down 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.8 ptsKicked a field goal · 35.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.3%−2.8
    64% to make
    Punt
    25.2%−9.9
    average punt
  14. Q3 6:15CAL 4th & 13 at CAL 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−4.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:57ASU 4th & 5 at CAL 48, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.3%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  16. Q4 15:00CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 24, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%−1.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 9:00ASU 4th & 1 at CAL 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−9.2
    25% to make
    Punt
    24.3%−6.9
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:17ASU 4th & 5 at CAL 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    56.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    30.2%−26.8
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:22CAL 4th & 3 at ASU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    5.4%−0.7
    27% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6CAL made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 10:00CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:34CAL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:24ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:18CAL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 11:19ASU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:44ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 9:06CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.8%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:21ASU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.8%−0.9
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 2:52ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:54CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.3 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.2%−2.3
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 0:48ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.9%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
69.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
69.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for no gain to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
69.2%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+31
69.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 55 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 48 , Tim White returns for 31 yds to the ArzSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
69.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
69.2%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
69.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
69.1%
Manny Wilkins punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cal 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3TD
10 plays · 98 yds · 2:3731% → 34%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 2
0
69.0%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 10
OWN 2
-1
69.1%
[NHSG], PENALTY CAL false start (Borrayo, Chris) 1 yards to the CAL1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 11
OWN 1
+2
69.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the Cal 3Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 9
OWN 3
+23
69.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 23 yds to the Cal 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
68.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 5 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 5
OWN 31
0
68.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bug RiveraSimilar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+6
68.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 6 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+40
68.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 40 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
68.6%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 19Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 6
OPP 19
+19
66.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 19 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4INT
6 plays · 21 yds · 0:0067% → 67%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 11
0
66.8%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 10
OWN 11
+14
66.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
66.9%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 9:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+6
66.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 9:56
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
66.8%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Darius Allensworth return for no gain to the ArzSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 15 yds · 2:1235% → 36%
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+9
65.0%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 1
OPP 31
+4
65.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-7
65.0%
Davis Webb sacked by TEAM for a loss of 7 yards to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q1 8:04
2ND & 17
OPP 34
0
65.1%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:04
3RD & 17
OPP 34
+9
65.4%
Tre Watson run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 8
OPP 25
+42
64.1%
Matt Anderson 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q1 5:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
64.6%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Hamilton Anoa'i for a loss of 4 yards to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q1 5:52
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+5
64.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 5:52
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+7
64.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 7 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q1 5:52
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
64.4%
Matt Haack punt for 57 yds, fair catch by Bug Rivera at the Cal 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-2
63.5%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cal 8Similar
Q1 4:15
2ND & 12
OWN 8
0
63.7%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
3RD & 12
OWN 8
0
64.0%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:15
4TH & 12
OWN 8
0
64.3%
Dylan Klumph punt for 50 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8FG
8 plays · 41 yds · 2:2864% → 65%
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+29
64.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 29 yds to the Cal 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
65.1%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+7
65.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 7 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+4
64.6%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the Cal 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:24
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
65.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:24
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+5
65.1%
Nick Ralston run for 5 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q1 3:24
3RD & 5
OPP 11
-6
64.5%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Devante Downs for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 17Similar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
64.8%
Zane Gonzalez 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:2236% → 47%
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
64.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q1 0:56
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+14
64.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 14 yds to the Cal 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
63.7%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
63.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+2
62.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
63.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bug RiveraSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+4
63.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+3
63.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 3 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 30
+4
64.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 4 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
62.4%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
62.6%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
52.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 20 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
54.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q2 11:34
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
55.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kody Kohl for 5 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 11:34
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-1
55.0%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 11:34
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
54.6%
Matt Haack punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Bug Rivera at the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11PUNT
10 plays · 26 yds · 1:4047% → 48%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+11
53.2%
Tre Watson run for 11 yds to the Cal 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
53.0%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 20Similar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+6
53.2%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
53.2%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+9
52.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 9 yds to the Cal 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
51.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Bug RiveraSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+3
51.7%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q2 8:15
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
51.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q2 8:15
4TH & 7
OWN 40
+14
52.2%
Dylan Klumph punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 45 , Tim White returns for 14 yds to the ARIZONAST 46 CALIFORNIA Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the ArzSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q2 7:02
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
50.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q2 7:02
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+1
50.4%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 7:02
3RD & 9
OWN 46
0
49.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:02
4TH & 9
OWN 46
0
49.1%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Bug Rivera at the Cal 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13FG
13 plays · 84 yds · 2:5050% → 57%
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+20
49.7%
Vic Enwere run for 5 yds to the Cal 18 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (DJ Calhoun) to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
49.2%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+30
48.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 30 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-10
48.1%
Davis Webb sacked by Koron Crump for a loss of 10 yards to the ArzSt 40 Davis Webb fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & 16
OPP 40
+14
48.6%
Vic Enwere run for 14 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 6:09
3RD & 2
OPP 26
+19
48.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 19 yds to the ArzSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
47.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q2 6:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
47.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad HansenSimilar
Q2 3:34
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
44.4%
[SG], Webb, Davis pass intercepted by Orr, Kareem at the ASU0, Orr, Kareem return to the ASU0, touchback, PENALTY ASU offside (Boateng, Edmond) 4 yards to the ASU3, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
44.7%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q2 3:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
42.9%
Matt Anderson 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:5543% → 56%
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
42.8%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
43.8%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, PENALTY CAL pass interference (18) 9 yards to the ASU43, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+15
45.0%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete, PENALTY CAL personal foul (Looney, James) 15 yards to the CAL42, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
45.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+13
46.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-1
46.4%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Cameron Saffle for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 22Similar
Q2 3:19
2ND & 11
OPP 22
+14
46.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 14 yds to the Cal 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
55.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15TD
7 plays · 82 yds · 1:0251% → 68%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+27
49.0%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 27 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+9
46.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 9 yds to the ArzSt 46Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 1
OPP 46
+11
44.6%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
44.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 9 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q2 0:34
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+3
42.3%
Vic Enwere run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
32.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 23 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
35.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 3:4137% → 52%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
36.6%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
37.5%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+4
38.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+6
38.7%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
39.3%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the Cal 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+1
39.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the Cal 43Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+20
38.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 20 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-5
40.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 28
+4
39.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the Cal 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+22
39.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 22 yds to the Cal 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
40.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd to the Cal 1Similar
Q3 11:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
51.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 18FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 2:1455% → 61%
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+7
45.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 3
OWN 22
+6
43.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 6 yds to the Cal 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
44.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+39
43.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 39 yds to the ArzSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
41.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
41.2%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
42.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q3 9:01
4TH & 10
OPP 30
+47
39.2%
Matt Anderson 47 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 2:4638% → 46%
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
37.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 8 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
39.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
38.6%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+28
38.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 28 yds to the Cal 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
42.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 8 yds to the Cal 27Similar
Q3 9:01
2ND & 2
OPP 27
0
42.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q3 9:01
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+1
40.7%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+44
45.5%
Zane Gonzalez 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · -3 yds · 0:0060% → 57%
Q3 6:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
39.7%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-5
39.9%
[NHSG], PENALTY CAL false start (Rivera, Bug) 5 yards to the CAL21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
40.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Raymond HudsonSimilar
Q3 6:15
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+1
41.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Enwere for 1 yd to the Cal 22 CALIFORNIA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
42.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 60 yds, downed at the ArzSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 34 yds · 0:0041% → 42%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
41.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+4
41.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+9
39.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
41.9%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+4
41.0%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 8
OWN 33
+14
40.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 14 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
44.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 4
OPP 47
-6
46.1%
Manny Wilkins sacked by Cameron Saffle for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 47Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 10
OWN 47
+5
42.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 5 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q3 4:57
4TH & 5
OPP 48
0
42.1%
Manny Wilkins punt for 43 yds, downed at the Cal 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 19 yds · 0:5065% → 64%
Q3 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+6
35.3%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Cal 11Similar
Q3 0:50
2ND & 4
OWN 11
-5
35.3%
[NHSG], Webb, Davis pass complete to Hansen, Chad for 19 yards to the CAL30 (Calhoun, DJ), PENALTY CAL pass interference (Robertson, Deme) 5 yards to the CAL6, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 6
-4
34.3%
Vic Enwere run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cal 2Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 2
+19
35.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 19 yds to the Cal 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
33.3%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Cal 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+2
33.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 2 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 25
-1
33.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 24
+1
35.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ArzSt 38 , Tim White returns for 1 yd to the ArzSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 2:1934% → 66%
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+10
34.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 10 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-5
36.5%
[NHSG], PENALTY ASU false start (Kohl, Kody) 5 yards to the ASU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 15
OWN 43
+2
33.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q4 12:03
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+9
33.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 9 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q4 12:03
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+7
37.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 7 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
38.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Ellis Jefferson for 12 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+24
40.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 24 yds to the Cal 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
66.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:3845% → 75%
Q4 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
54.8%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
54.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+74
24.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Tre Watson for 74 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 2:3929% → 68%
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
28.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+20
29.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 20 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+7
32.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 7 yds to the Cal 47Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 3
OPP 47
0
34.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 3
OPP 47
+2
33.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 9:00
4TH & 1
OPP 45
+7
31.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
34.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 8 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+30
67.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 30 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
53.2%
Davis Webb pass intercepted Salamo Fiso return for 22 yds to the Cal 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27FG
7 plays · 10 yds · 2:5568% → 83%
Q4 6:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
67.9%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the Cal 13Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+6
67.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the Cal 7Similar
Q4 6:12
3RD & 2
OPP 7
+2
65.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the Cal 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
67.9%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 3 yards to the Cal 8Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
67.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 6:12
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
65.8%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the Cal 5Similar
Q4 3:17
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
83.2%
Zane Gonzalez 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28INT TD
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:2529% → 5%
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
71.3%
Tre Watson run for 1 yd to the Cal 26Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+28
95.3%
Davis Webb pass intercepted for a TD Viliami Moeakiola return for 28 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 29TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 1:585% → 34%
Q4 2:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
95.4%
Davis Webb run for 6 yds to the Cal 31Similar
Q4 2:52
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
94.6%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris Robertson, broken up by Gump HayesSimilar
Q4 2:52
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-5
95.0%
[NHSG], PENALTY CAL delay of game 5 yards to the CAL26, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+12
95.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Raymond Hudson for 12 yds to the Cal 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
94.3%
Davis Webb sacked by Koron Crump for a loss of 8 yards to the Cal 30Similar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 18
OWN 30
+7
95.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Patrick Worstell for 7 yds to the Cal 37Similar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 11
OWN 37
+12
95.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Patrick Worstell for 12 yds to the Cal 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
93.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Demetris RobertsonSimilar
Q4 2:22
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
93.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Kareem OrrSimilar
Q4 2:22
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+7
94.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 7 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 2:22
4TH & 3
OPP 44
+18
94.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Bug Rivera for 18 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
92.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q4 0:54
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+26
65.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 26 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 31FUMBLE
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:005% → 7%
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
95.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Tre Watson for 9 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 0:43
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
94.3%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:43
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+16
94.7%
Tre Watson run for 16 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+13
94.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Patrick Worstell for 13 yds to the ArzSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:43
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-6
93.2%
Davis Webb sacked by Edmond Boateng for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 32 Davis Webb fumbled, recovered by ArzSt Koron Crump , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-1
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:21
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jay Jay Wilson for 30 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+34.3
TD · Q4 9:06
Davis Webb pass complete to Tre Watson for 74 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
-30.3
TD · Q4 0:48
Noah Beito on-side kick recovered by ARIZONA ST at the Cal 0 , DJ Calhoun return for 42 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+29.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com