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TEX

Texas 43 at California 50

CAL
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · California Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · CAL
modelCAL aheadTEX aheadconfidence bandkey playCAL scoreTEX score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:42 · Dylan Klumph punt for 46 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 3 yds to the Texas 10
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+27.5+13.80−13.8−27.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 142Pregame prior−10.7Home team on offense+3.3Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.6Blowout margin−1.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:55: Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 23 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +13.5 pts (now 48%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:28: D'Onta Foreman run for 47 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK) — TEX win probability +28.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:45: Davis Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Hansen Run For Two-point Conversion) — CAL win probability +32.4 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 5:29: Trent Domingue 35 yd FG GOOD — TEX win probability +17.2 pts (now 53%) (top driver: TEX has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 3:41: Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK) — CAL win probability +29.4 pts (now 94%) (top driver: CAL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CAL made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TEX made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 8:21CAL 4th & 1 at CAL 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    38.1%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:16TEX 4th & 8 at CAL 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.4%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.5%
    72% to make
    Punt
    60.4%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:35CAL 4th & 17 at CAL 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.1%−0.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 11:51CAL 4th & 4 at CAL 32, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.9%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 2:29TEX 4th & 21 at TEX 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−2.3
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:38CAL 4th & 19 at CAL 19, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−3.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00TEX 4th & 4 at CAL 36, down 2
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.5%−1.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    51.6%−1.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 10:40TEX 4th & 11 at CAL 32, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.6%
    51% to make
    Punt
    46.1%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 8:42CAL 4th & 8 at CAL 47, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.2%−1.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 4:49TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 42, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−1.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:57CAL 4th & 7 at CAL 26, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−1.9
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.5%
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:02TEX 4th & 8 at TEX 48, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:37CAL 4th & 22 at CAL 15, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−8.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:25CAL 4th & 1 at TEX 22, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    31.3%−4.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    16.8%−19.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:29TEX 4th & 5 at CAL 18, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.8%−4.5
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−15.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 1:41TEX 4th & 10 at TEX 21, down 7
    Close callPunted · 10.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.0%
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    6.0%−1.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CAL made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TEX made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 12:53CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    37.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:38TEX Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:31TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:07CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 13:31TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 9:43CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 7:43TEX Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 4:55CAL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    40.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:55CAL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:28TEX Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.4%−0.4
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:45CAL Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    61.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    61.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 3:41CAL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−1.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CALDrive 1TD
7 plays · 84 yds · 1:5725% → 27%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
25.3%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q1 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+9
25.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 9 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 14:14
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+16
25.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 16 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+26
25.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 26 yds to the Texas 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+4
26.2%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 12:53
2ND & 6
OPP 29
+29
27.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 29 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 2TD
15 plays · 84 yds · 2:5273% → 73%
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+6
27.2%
Chris Warren III run for 6 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q1 12:00
2ND & 4
OWN 22
+7
27.5%
Chris Warren III run for 7 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+14
27.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 14 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
27.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete, broken up by Devante DownsSimilar
Q1 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
28.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 9 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q1 10:45
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
28.2%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Cal 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
28.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jacorey WarrickSimilar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+11
28.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 11 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+8
28.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 8 yds to the Cal 25Similar
Q1 10:00
2ND & 2
OPP 25
-6
28.5%
Shane Buechele sacked by Evan Weaver for a loss of 6 yards to the Cal 31Similar
Q1 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 31
+15
28.8%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Oliver, Jake thrown to the CALIFORNIA22, PENALTY CALIFORNIA roughing passer (Manley, Marcus) 15 yards to the CALIFORNIA16, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN TEXAS.Similar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
28.6%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 8 yds to the Cal 8Similar
Q1 9:45
2ND & 2
OPP 8
+4
28.7%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Cal 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:38
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
27.2%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 3DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 1:0928% → 28%
Q1 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
28.1%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 8:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
28.3%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
28.2%
Vic Enwere run for no gain to the Cal 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 4FG
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:5773% → 72%
Q1 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+10
27.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 10 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+2
27.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Cal 22Similar
Q1 7:26
2ND & 8
OPP 22
0
27.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q1 7:21
3RD & 8
OPP 22
0
28.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to D'Onta ForemanSimilar
Q1 7:16
4TH & 8
OPP 22
+38
28.0%
Trent Domingue 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:3528% → 28%
Q1 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
28.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by John BurtSimilar
Q1 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
28.0%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q1 6:13
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-10
28.0%
Webb, Davis pass short right complete to Watson, Tre for 21 yards to the CALIFORNIA49 (caught at the CALIFORNIA30), PENALTY CALIFORNIA holding (Cochran, Aaron) 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
27.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete, broken up by Bryce CottrellSimilar
Q1 5:35
4TH & 17
OWN 18
+2
27.7%
Dylan Klumph punt for 48 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 2 yds to the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 6TD
7 plays · 64 yds · 1:5471% → 75%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+18
28.6%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Cal 39 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Cameron Saffle) to the Cal 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
28.3%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q1 4:48
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+18
28.4%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 18 yds to the Cal 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+4
28.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to John Burt for 4 yds to the Cal 20Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 6
OPP 20
+5
28.1%
Chris Warren III run for 5 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q1 3:45
3RD & 1
OPP 15
+3
28.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 3 yds to the Cal 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
25.4%
Chris Warren III run for 12 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 7TD
12 plays · 66 yds · 3:0925% → 32%
Q1 3:16
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+24
25.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 24 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
26.1%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:47
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+11
26.3%
Vic Enwere run for 11 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+4
26.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Vic Enwere for 4 yds to the Texas 27Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 6
OPP 27
-2
26.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Tre Watson for a loss of 2 yards to the Texas 29Similar
Q1 1:11
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+10
26.4%
Webb, Davis pass deep right incomplete to Hansen, Chad thrown to the TEXAS2, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Davis, Davante) 10 yards to the TEXAS19, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN CALIFORNIA.Similar
Q1 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
26.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+16
27.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Demetris Robertson for 16 yds to the Texas 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
27.0%
Davis Webb run for 1 yd to the Texas 2Similar
Q1 0:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
27.0%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Texas 1Similar
Q1 0:07
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.6%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 8TD
7 plays · 86 yds · 1:2670% → 75%
Q2 14:57
1ST & 10
OWN 14
0
30.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OWN 14
+28
30.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 28 yds to the Texas 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
29.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 8
OPP 44
+45
29.2%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 34 yds to the CALIFORNIA 22 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Face Mask (11 yards) (Darius Allensworth) to the Cal 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
28.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the Cal 4Similar
Q2 13:31
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
24.9%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:2425% → 25%
Q2 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
25.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for a loss of 1 yard to the Cal 25Similar
Q2 12:45
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+7
25.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 7 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q2 12:04
3RD & 4
OWN 32
0
24.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Paul Boyette Jr.Similar
Q2 11:51
4TH & 4
OWN 32
+19
24.8%
Dylan Klumph punt for 51 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 19 yds to the Texas 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 10INT
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:1275% → 75%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
25.4%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 6
OWN 40
+17
24.9%
Tyrone Swoopes pass intercepted Chibuzo Nwokocha return for 17 yds to the Texas 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 11TD
5 plays · 46 yds · 1:1727% → 35%
Q2 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
26.5%
Tre Watson run for 6 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 4
OPP 40
-3
26.5%
Tre Watson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Texas 43Similar
Q2 10:30
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+38
26.2%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 38 yds to the Texas 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
27.2%
Vic Enwere run for 4 yds to the Texas 1Similar
Q2 9:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
34.7%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 12TD
9 plays · 80 yds · 1:4768% → 77%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
31.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+7
31.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 7 yds to the Texas 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
31.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Collin Johnson for 9 yds to the Texas 39Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 1
OWN 39
+4
30.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
30.6%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
30.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 9 yds to the Cal 48Similar
Q2 7:55
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+7
29.6%
D'Onta Foreman run for 7 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:43
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
23.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 41 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 13TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 2:2025% → 36%
Q2 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
25.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 4 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 6:45
2ND & 6
OWN 46
0
25.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+9
24.7%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 9 yds to the Texas 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
26.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise StovallSimilar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+1
25.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 1 yd to the Texas 44Similar
Q2 5:13
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+15
25.3%
Davis Webb pass complete to Brandon Singleton for 15 yds to the Texas 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
26.8%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Sheroid EvansSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+29
36.0%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 29 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 2 yds · 2:0168% → 66%
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+9
31.7%
Chris Warren III run for 9 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q2 4:09
2ND & 1
OWN 36
+4
30.8%
Chris Warren III run for 4 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
30.4%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:41
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-5
30.9%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Brandon Hodges) to the Texas 35Similar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+5
32.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 5 yds to the Texas 40Similar
Q2 3:20
3RD & 10
OWN 40
-6
31.8%
Shane Buechele sacked by Khari Vanderbilt and DeVante Wilson for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 34Similar
Q2 2:37
4TH & 16
OWN 34
-5
34.1%
TEXAS Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Texas 29Similar
Q2 2:29
4TH & 21
OWN 29
+1
34.5%
Michael Dickson punt for 44 yds , Bug Rivera returns for 1 yd to the Cal 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 15SF
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:2233% → 28%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
33.0%
Melquise Stovall run for 2 yds to the Cal 30Similar
Q2 1:55
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
32.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Melquise Stovall, broken up by Sheroid EvansSimilar
Q2 1:43
3RD & 8
OWN 30
-11
31.7%
Davis Webb sacked by Malcolm Roach for a loss of 11 yards to the Cal 19Similar
Q2 1:38
4TH & 19
OWN 19
0
27.7%
TEAM punt blocked by Brandon Jones for a SAFETY blocked by Brandon Jones for a SAFETY for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 16INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0072% → 72%
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+45
27.7%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Luke Rubenzer return for 45 yds to the Texas 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 17TD
2 plays · 24 yds · 0:1534% → 48%
Q2 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
34.0%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Texas 23Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+23
47.5%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 23 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 18DOWNS
10 plays · 33 yds · 0:4359% → 60%
Q2 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
41.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to John Burt for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (DeVante Wilson) to the Texas 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
39.2%
Shane Buechele run for 8 yds to the Cal 46Similar
Q2 0:21
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+4
37.8%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Cal 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
38.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jerrod HeardSimilar
Q2 0:06
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
38.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Jake Oliver, broken up by Raymond DavisonSimilar
Q2 0:02
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+6
39.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 6 yds to the Cal 36Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+53
39.8%
Trent Domingue 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 19MISSED FG
13 plays · 43 yds · 4:1557% → 54%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
43.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 10 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
43.5%
Chris Warren III run for 2 yds to the Texas 37Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+20
44.2%
Chris Warren III run for 20 yds to the Cal 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
41.0%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Cal 40Similar
Q3 13:15
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+6
41.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 6 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 1
OPP 34
+3
41.3%
Chris Warren III run for 3 yds to the Cal 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
40.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Cal 28Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 7
OPP 28
-10
40.4%
Foreman, D'Onta rush over left end for 21 yards to the CALIFORNIA7, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Shackelford, Zach) 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA38, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & 17
OPP 38
+4
43.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jacorey Warrick for 4 yds to the Cal 34Similar
Q3 11:20
3RD & 13
OPP 34
+2
44.1%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 11
OPP 32
+49
46.5%
Trent Domingue 49 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:4848% → 48%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
47.6%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Cal 39Similar
Q3 10:15
2ND & 4
OWN 39
0
50.0%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Chad Hansen, broken up by Holton HillSimilar
Q3 10:09
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+6
48.6%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
50.6%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 7 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+2
52.0%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 9:25
3RD & 1
OPP 46
-7
51.3%
Davis Webb sacked by Breckyn Hager for a loss of 7 yards to the Cal 47Similar
Q3 8:42
4TH & 8
OWN 47
+3
48.0%
Dylan Klumph punt for 46 yds , Jacorey Warrick returns for 3 yds to the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 21PUNT
10 plays · 32 yds · 3:4152% → 49%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
48.0%
Tyrone Swoopes pass complete to Jake Oliver for 9 yds to the Texas 19Similar
Q3 8:05
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+9
47.5%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 9 yds to the Texas 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
47.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 3 yds to the Texas 31Similar
Q3 7:20
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+4
47.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Texas 35Similar
Q3 6:45
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+5
48.1%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 5 yds to the Texas 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
46.4%
Tyrone Swoopes run for 1 yd to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+6
47.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to John Burt for 6 yds to the Texas 47Similar
Q3 5:22
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-5
46.4%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Zach Shackelford) to the Texas 42Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 8
OWN 42
0
48.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti Foreman, broken up by Marloshawn Franklin Jr.Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 8
OWN 42
0
50.9%
Michael Dickson punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Bug Rivera at the Cal 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:3350% → 49%
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+7
50.4%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 7 yds to the Cal 15Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 3
OWN 15
+8
51.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 8 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
51.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Khalfani Muhammad for 3 yds to the Cal 26Similar
Q3 3:17
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
52.1%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Brandon SingletonSimilar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 7
OWN 26
0
50.4%
Davis Webb pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:57
4TH & 7
OWN 26
0
49.3%
Dylan Klumph punt for 64 yds, downed at the Texas 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 38 yds · 1:4849% → 47%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+25
51.3%
Chris Warren III run for 25 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
50.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for 11 yds to the Texas 46 for a 1ST down CALIFORNIA Penalty, Substitution Infraction ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
47.6%
Chris Warren III run for no gain to the Texas 46Similar
Q3 1:52
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
48.7%
TEXAS Penalty, False Start (Patrick Vahe) to the Texas 41Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 15
OWN 41
0
50.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to John BurtSimilar
Q3 1:30
3RD & 15
OWN 41
+7
51.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Dorian Leonard for 7 yds to the Texas 48Similar
Q3 1:02
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
52.7%
Michael Dickson punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bug Rivera at the Cal 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 24PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 2:1854% → 52%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+13
53.9%
Davis Webb pass complete to Melquise Stovall for 13 yds to the Cal 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
54.8%
Tre Watson run for 2 yds to the Cal 29Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+3
55.4%
Tre Watson run for 3 yds to the Cal 32Similar
Q4 14:45
3RD & 5
OWN 32
-12
54.5%
Davis Webb sacked by Naashon Hughes for a loss of 12 yards to the Cal 20 Davis Webb fumbled, forced by Naashon Hughes, recovered by Cal Davis Webb , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:15
4TH & 17
OWN 20
-5
52.2%
CALIFORNIA Penalty, Delay of Game (Dylan Klumph) to the Cal 15Similar
Q4 13:37
4TH & 22
OWN 15
0
52.4%
Dylan Klumph punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Armanti Foreman at the Cal 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 25TD
1 play · 47 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q4 13:28
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+47
24.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 47 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 26TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 2:3031% → 74%
Q4 13:15
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
31.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 17 yds to the Cal 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+28
34.4%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 28 yds to the Texas 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+1
38.2%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Texas 30Similar
Q4 12:00
2ND & 9
OPP 30
+2
38.2%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 11:45
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+6
38.0%
Vic Enwere run for 6 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 1
OPP 22
+2
36.3%
Vic Enwere run for 2 yds to the Texas 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+18
41.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 18 yds to the Texas 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
41.2%
Vic Enwere run for 1 yd to the Texas 1Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
73.6%
Davis Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Hansen Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 27FG
14 plays · 59 yds · 4:4137% → 53%
Q4 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
63.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for 11 yds to the Texas 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
62.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Texas 36Similar
Q4 9:26
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+19
61.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 19 yds to the Cal 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
57.7%
D'Onta Foreman run for 2 yds to the Cal 43Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+10
57.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Armanti Foreman for 10 yds to the Cal 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
56.4%
D'Onta Foreman run for no gain to the Cal 33Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
56.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Armanti ForemanSimilar
Q4 8:17
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+10
59.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Devin Duvernay for 10 yds to the Cal 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:55
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+4
56.5%
D'Onta Foreman run for 4 yds to the Cal 19Similar
Q4 7:04
2ND & 6
OPP 19
-10
55.1%
Swoopes, Tyrone rush left for 8 yards to the CALIFORNIA11, PENALTY TEXAS holding (Beck, Andrew) 10 yards to the CALIFORNIA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:35
2ND & 16
OPP 29
+1
60.3%
D'Onta Foreman run for 1 yd to the Cal 28 D'Onta Foreman fumbled, recovered by Texas D'Onta ForemanSimilar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 15
OPP 28
+10
64.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jake Oliver for 10 yds to the Cal 18Similar
Q4 5:29
4TH & 5
OPP 18
+35
46.8%
Trent Domingue 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 28TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 1:1957% → 94%
Q4 5:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for no gain to the Cal 35Similar
Q4 4:50
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+30
56.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Jordan Veasy for 30 yds to the Texas 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
64.5%
Vic Enwere run for 7 yds to the Texas 28Similar
Q4 4:20
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+3
64.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 3 yds to the Texas 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
64.9%
Davis Webb pass incomplete to Jordan VeasySimilar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+13
64.8%
Davis Webb pass complete to Patrick Worstell for 13 yds to the Texas 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:41
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+12
94.1%
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEXDrive 29PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:3912% → 8%
Q4 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
88.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Jerrod Heard for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 20Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+2
88.8%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the Texas 22Similar
Q4 2:20
3RD & 9
OWN 22
-1
89.9%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 1 yard to the Texas 21Similar
Q4 1:41
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
91.6%
Michael Dickson punt for 43 yds , Bug Rivera returns for no gain to the Cal 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CALDrive 30END OF GAME
7 plays · 52 yds · 1:3595% → 97%
Q4 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+6
95.2%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 6 yds to the Cal 42Similar
Q4 1:30
2ND & 4
OWN 42
+3
95.8%
Khalfani Muhammad run for 3 yds to the Cal 45Similar
Q4 1:21
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+54
96.6%
Vic Enwere run for 54 yds to the Texas 1 Vic Enwere fumbled, recovered by Cal for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
97.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Texas 6Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-6
97.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 6 yards to the Texas 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:45
Davis Webb run for 1 yd for a TD, (C. Hansen Run For Two-point Conversion)
+32.4
TD · Q4 3:41
Davis Webb pass complete to Chad Hansen for 12 yds for a TD, (Matt Anderson KICK)
+29.4
TD · Q4 13:28
D'Onta Foreman run for 47 yds for a TD, (Trent Domingue KICK)
-28.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com