2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Gesa Field
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Win probability · WSU
modelWSU aheadIDHO aheadconfidence bandkey playWSU scoreIDHO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Austin Rehkow punt for 58 yds, downed at the WASHST 10 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (5 Yards) to the WshSt 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 7:35: Marcellus Pippins 72 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Erik Powell Kick) — WSU win probability +2.7 pts (now 94%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 4:02: Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 8 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +2.3 pts (now 97%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- FG · Q3 8:47: Austin Rehkow 18 yd FG GOOD — IDHO win probability +1.5 pts (now 6%) (top driver: IDHO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 2:50: Gerard Wicks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +3.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:05: Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK) — WSU win probability +0.7 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7IDHO made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00WSU 4th & 4 at WSU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.3%−<0.147% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.3%average punt
- Q1 9:47IDHO 4th & 9 at WSU 26, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 5.9% before the snapGo for it5.8%−0.131% to convertField goalTheir call5.9%64% to makePunt5.5%−0.4average punt
- Q1 9:39WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 43, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 94.0% before the snapGo for it94.0%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.0%average punt
- Q1 6:18IDHO 4th & 5 at IDHO 46, up 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.9% before the snapGo for it6.9%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.0%average punt
- Q1 3:29WSU 4th & 1 at WSU 44, down 3Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt92.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00IDHO 4th & 1 at WSU 39, down 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.3%70% to convertField goal7.9%−0.436% to makePunt8.0%−0.4average punt
- Q2 7:35IDHO 4th & 13 at WSU 15, down 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 10.4% before the snapGo for it9.9%−0.418% to convertField goalTheir call10.4%83% to makePunt8.7%−1.6average punt
- Q2 3:55IDHO 4th & 4 at IDHO 43, down 18Close callPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.1%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%−0.1average punt
- Q2 0:10WSU 4th & 5 at IDHO 26, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 95.0% before the snapGo for it94.5%−0.441% to convertField goalTheir call94.9%64% to makePunt93.7%−1.2average punt
- Q3 15:00IDHO 4th & 3 at IDHO 32, down 18Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.1%average punt
- Q3 13:06WSU 4th & 5 at WSU 10, up 18Close callPunted · 95.6% before the snapGo for it95.6%40% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%−0.1average punt
- Q3 8:47IDHO 4th & 1 at WSU 1, down 18Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 4.5% before the snapGo for it4.2%59% to convertField goalTheir call2.8%−1.494% to makePunt-0.7%−4.9average punt
- Q3 8:39WSU 4th & 3 at IDHO 47, up 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 94.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call95.2%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt94.9%−0.4average punt
- Q3 2:45IDHO 4th & 14 at IDHO 12, down 22Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.717% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.8%average punt
- Q4 15:00WSU 4th & 8 at IDHO 35, up 22Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call98.9%34% to convertField goal98.9%−<0.145% to makePunt98.8%−0.2average punt
- Q4 13:01IDHO 4th & 1 at IDHO 32, down 29Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 8:37IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 25, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 3:27IDHO 4th & 7 at IDHO 4, down 43Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 0:22WSU Touchdown, up 3 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.1%97% to makeGo for two92.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:35WSU Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 4:02WSU Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call95.5%97% to makeGo for two95.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:50WSU Touchdown, up 21 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:05WSU Touchdown, up 28 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 8:52WSU Touchdown, up 35 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:02WSU Touchdown, up 49 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWSUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 26
-1
96.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the WshSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 2FG11 plays · 29 yds · 3:404% → 5%
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Deon Watson, broken up by Darrien MoltonSimilar
Q1 13:27
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
96.0%
Matt Linehan run for a loss of 5 yards to the WshSt 44 Matt Linehan fumbled, recovered by Idaho Matt LinehanSimilar
Q1 13:27
2ND & 15
OPP 44
+6
96.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 6 yds to the WshSt 38Similar
Q1 10:54
4TH & 5
OPP 34
+7
95.6%
Linehan, Matt pass incomplete to Cowan, Trent, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Dotson, Isaac) 7 yards to the WSU27, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 3PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 4PUNT8 plays · 26 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
94.4%
Linehan, Matt pass incomplete to Watson, Deon, PENALTY WSU holding (Molton, Darrien) 10 yards to the IDAHO30, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:18
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+8
94.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 8 yds to the Idaho 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:18
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
94.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 4 yds to the Idaho 45Similar
Q1 6:18
4TH & 5
OWN 46
0
94.4%
Austin Rehkow punt for 36 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for no gain to the WshSt 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 5TD9 plays · 82 yds · 3:0794% → 94%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+50
93.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 50 yds to the Idaho 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 6MISSED FG TD22 plays · 66 yds · 7:436% → 6%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 25
-10
93.4%
Linehan, Matt pass incomplete to Watson, Deon, PENALTY IDAHO holding (Duckworth, A) 10 yards to the IDAHO15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 15
+7
93.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Jacob Sannon for 7 yds to the Idaho 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+10
93.6%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Reuben Mwehla for 10 yds to the Idaho 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+15
93.3%
Linehan, Matt pass incomplete to Onunwor, A (Molton, Darrien), QB hurry by Luani, Shalom, PENALTY WSU pass interference (Molton, Darrien) 15 yards to the WSU48, 1ST DOWN IDAHO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 12
50
+11
93.3%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 11 yds to the WshSt 39Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
93.4%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Alfonso Onunwor for 3 yds to the WshSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+6
93.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 6 yds to the WshSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
91.5%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to Jacob Sannon, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q2 7:35
4TH & 13
OPP 15
+72
94.4%
Marcellus Pippins 72 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Erik Powell Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 7FUMBLE5 plays · 21 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
94.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 1 yd to the Idaho 16Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+10
94.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 10 yds to the Idaho 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 2
OWN 34
+2
94.0%
Matt Linehan run for 2 yds to the Idaho 36 Matt Linehan fumbled, forced by Garrett McBroom, recovered by WshSt Robert TaylorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 8TD6 plays · 36 yds · 1:3695% → 97%
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-3
94.5%
Gerard Wicks run for 7 yds to the Idaho 11 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (River Cracraft) to the Idaho 21Similar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 13
OPP 21
+13
94.5%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 13 yds to the Idaho 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
96.8%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 8 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 9PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+18
97.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 18 yds to the Idaho 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:55
4TH & 4
OWN 43
+7
96.6%
Austin Rehkow punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WshSt 33 , Kaleb Fossum returns for 7 yds to the 50 yard line IDAHO Penalty, personal foul (-15 Yards) to the WshSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 10MISSED FG13 plays · 41 yds · 2:1596% → 97%
Q2 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+15
96.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 12
OPP 33
-15
96.3%
Falk, Luke pass incomplete to Lewis, Robert, PENALTY WSU face mask (Lewis, Robert) 15 yards to the IDAHO48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:31
3RD & 27
OPP 48
+22
96.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 22 yds to the Idaho 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 11END OF HALF1 play · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 12PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
-15
95.5%
Amos, Gunnar rush for loss of 1 yard to the IDAHO33 (Thompson, Jalen), PENALTY IDAHO personal foul (Watson, Deon) 15 yards to the IDAHO19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+13
96.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 13 yds to the Idaho 32Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+63
95.9%
Austin Rehkow punt for 58 yds, downed at the WASHST 10 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (5 Yards) to the WshSt 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 13:06
2ND & 5
OWN 10
0
96.7%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Gabe Marks, broken up by D.J. HamptonSimilar
Q3 13:06
3RD & 5
OWN 10
0
96.6%
Luke Falk pass incomplete to Kyle Sweet, broken up by Jayshawn JordanSimilar
Q3 13:06
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+51
96.0%
Kyle Sweet punt for 51 yds , Alfonso Onunwor returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Idaho 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 14FG10 plays · 61 yds · 3:305% → 6%
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
95.5%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 18 yds to the WshSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
95.2%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 16 yds to the WshSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
94.8%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Deon Watson for 7 yds to the WshSt 21Similar
Q3 12:17
3RD & 6
OPP 24
+17
95.1%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Trent Cowan for 17 yds to the WshSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
95.1%
Linehan, Matt pass incomplete to Watson, Deon (Parker,Kirkland), PENALTY WSU offside (Ekuale, Daniel) 1 yards to the WSU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 15TD17 plays · 90 yds · 5:4995% → 99%
Q3 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
95.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 16 yds to the WshSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+19
95.3%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 19 yds to the WshSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+5
95.2%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 5 yds to the Idaho 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:39
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+6
95.6%
Luke Falk pass complete to Tavares Martin Jr. for 6 yds to the Idaho 36Similar
Q3 8:39
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+10
95.2%
Falk, Luke pass incomplete to Marks, Gabe, PENALTY IDAHO holding (Hampton, D.J.) 10 yards to the IDAHO24, 1ST DOWN WSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:39
1ST & 2
OWN 0
0
95.3%
Falk, Luke pass incomplete to Marks, Gabe (Hampton, D.J.), PENALTY WSU illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY IDAHO pass interference off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 16PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 2:45
4TH & 14
OWN 12
+51
98.6%
Austin Rehkow punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WshSt 48 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, personal foul (Jamal Morrow) to the WshSt 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 17TD9 plays · 63 yds · 3:3699% → 100%
Q3 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for 1 yd to the WshSt 38Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 33
-2
99.1%
Luke Falk pass complete to James Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the Idaho 35Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+16
99.0%
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 16 yds to the Idaho 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:05
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+10
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Robert Lewis for 10 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 18DOWNS5 plays · 9 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 13:01
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
99.9%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Callen Hightower for 6 yds to the Idaho 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 19TD6 plays · 32 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q4 11:01
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-11
99.9%
Luke Falk sacked by Tueni Lupeamanu for a loss of 11 yards to the Idaho 28Similar
Q4 11:01
2ND & 21
OPP 28
+19
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to River Cracraft for 19 yds to the Idaho 9Similar
Q4 8:52
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+9
99.9%
Luke Falk pass complete to Kyle Sweet for 9 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 21PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:37
2ND & 14
OWN 18
+7
100.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to David Ungerer for 7 yds to the Idaho 25Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
100.0%
Matt Linehan pass incomplete to David Ungerer, broken up by Jalen ThompsonSimilar
Q4 8:37
4TH & 7
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
Austin Rehkow punt for 47 yds , Kaleb Fossum returns for a loss of 2 yards to the WshSt 23 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, illegal block (Jalen Thompson) to the WshSt 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 22INT10 plays · 67 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q4 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 17
+34
99.9%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for 19 yds to the Idaho 36 for a 1ST down IDAHO Penalty, roughing passer (Khalin Smith) to the Idaho 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+6
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to River Cracraft for 6 yds to the Idaho 43Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 4
OPP 43
0
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to Dezmon Patmon for no gain to the Idaho 43 WASHINGTON ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to River Cracraft for 4 yds to the Idaho 30Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+13
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to C.J. Dimry for 13 yds to the Idaho 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass intercepted Jayshawn Jordan return for no gain to the Idaho 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 23PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+4
100.0%
Matt Linehan pass complete to Isaiah Saunders for 4 yds to the Idaho 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WSUDrive 24TD4 plays · 55 yds · 1:09100% → 100%
Q4 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
100.0%
Tyler Hilinski pass complete to River Cracraft for 13 yds to the Idaho 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDHODrive 25END OF GAME7 plays · 1 yds · 0:430% → 0%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:50
Gerard Wicks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
+3.7
TD · Q2 7:35
Marcellus Pippins 72 Yd Return of Blocked Field Goal (Erik Powell Kick)
+2.7
TD · Q2 4:02
Luke Falk pass complete to Gabe Marks for 8 yds for a TD, (Erik Powell KICK)
+2.3