2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Husky Stadium
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Win probability · WASH
modelWASH aheadPRST aheadconfidence bandkey playWASH scorePRST score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:01 · Marcus Kinsella punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 14:49: Chico McClatcher 13 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +0.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 13:52: Myles Gaskin 4 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +0.4 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 14:42: Nate Tago run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 28 — PRST win probability +1.2 pts (now 1%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
- FG · Q3 1:01: Jonathan Gonzales 26 Yd Field Goal — PRST win probability +0.3 pts (now 0%) (top driver: PRST has the ball).
- TD · Q4 12:40: Myles Gaskin 4 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick) — WASH win probability +0.2 pts (now 100%) (top driver: WASH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
WASH made the numbers' call on 3 of 4PRST made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
- Q1 4:58PRST 4th & 18 at WASH 45, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.6% before the snapGo for it1.5%−0.113% to convertField goal1.6%−0.125% to makePuntTheir call1.6%average punt
- Q2 11:47PRST 4th & 3 at PRST 32, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q2 10:15WASH 4th & 5 at PRST 46, up 28Close callPunted · 99.3% before the snapGo for it99.3%41% to convertField goal99.2%−0.223% to makePuntTheir call99.3%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 6:34PRST 4th & 15 at PRST 40, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.4% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.317% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.4%average punt
- Q3 9:43PRST 4th & 10 at WASH 33, down 28Close callWent for it · 0.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.3%−<0.130% to convertField goal0.3%49% to makePunt0.2%−0.1average punt
- Q3 6:34WASH 4th & 6 at WASH 24, up 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.138% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q3 4:58PRST 4th & 1 at WASH 41, down 28Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%70% to convertField goal-0.0%−0.232% to makePunt0.0%−0.2average punt
- Q3 1:01PRST 4th & 9 at WASH 9, down 28Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.125% to convertField goalTheir call0.1%89% to makePunt-0.4%−0.5average punt
- Q4 11:01PRST 4th & 4 at PRST 31, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 7:34WASH 4th & 1 at PRST 39, up 32Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%70% to convertField goal99.7%−0.236% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 6:04WASH 4th & 18 at PRST 44, up 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.113% to convertField goal99.9%−0.127% to makePuntTheir call99.9%average punt
- Q4 3:43PRST 4th & 4 at PRST 10, down 32Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.146% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
- Q4 1:15PRST 4th & 3 at PRST 35, down 38Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snapGo for it0.0%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.0%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
WASH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 12:37WASH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 12:12WASH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 14:49WASH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.9%97% to makeGo for two98.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 13:52WASH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.4%97% to makeGo for two99.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:40WASH Touchdown, up 31 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 2:24WASH Touchdown, up 38 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartWASHDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:1899% → 99%
WASHDrive 2TD5 plays · 26 yds · 0:1899% → 99%
PRSTDrive 3PUNT14 plays · 33 yds · 7:021% → 1%
Q1 10:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
99.1%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Paris Penn for 9 yds to the PrtSt 46Similar
Q1 9:30
2ND & 1
OWN 46
+5
99.1%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Maximo Espitia for 5 yds to the Wash 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:22
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-13
98.9%
Alex Kuresa sacked by Psalm Wooching for a loss of 13 yards to the Wash 45Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 18
OPP 45
0
98.9%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wash 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 4TD12 plays · 80 yds · 4:4899% → 99%
Q1 3:26
3RD & 8
OWN 42
+11
98.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to Drew Sample for 11 yds to the PrtSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:11
3RD & 4
OPP 29
+12
98.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 12 yds to the PrtSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
99.1%
Chico McClatcher 13 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 5FUMBLE3 plays · -21 yds · 0:331% → 1%
WASHDrive 6TD2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0899% → 100%
PRSTDrive 7PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 1:401% → 1%
WASHDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:15100% → 100%
Q2 10:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+5
99.6%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 5 yds to the PrtSt 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 9PUNT8 plays · 20 yds · 3:261% → 0%
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.5%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Paris Penn for 9 yds to the PrtSt 29Similar
Q2 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
99.5%
Alex Kuresa sacked by Brandon Beaver for a loss of 1 yard to the PrtSt 30Similar
Q2 8:20
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+15
99.5%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the PrtSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 8
OWN 47
-7
99.6%
Alex Kuresa sacked by Joe Mathis for a loss of 7 yards to the PrtSt 40Similar
Q2 6:34
4TH & 15
OWN 40
0
99.7%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Wash 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 10FUMBLE6 plays · 38 yds · 2:16100% → 100%
Q2 5:05
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+24
99.7%
Jake Browning pass complete to Darrell Daniels for 24 yds to the PrtSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-5
99.7%
Jake Browning sacked by Davond Dade for a loss of 5 yards to the PrtSt 32 Jake Browning fumbled, recovered by PrtSt Kenton Bartlett , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 11FUMBLE6 plays · 55 yds · 3:010% → 0%
Q2 3:40
2ND & 11
OWN 31
-1
99.8%
Alex Kuresa sacked by Elijah Qualls for a loss of 1 yard to the PrtSt 30Similar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 12
OWN 30
+18
99.7%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Maximo Espitia for 18 yds to the PrtSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 8
50
+37
99.6%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Maximo Espitia for 37 yds Maximo Espitia fumbled, recovered by WashSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 12END OF HALF2 plays · 12 yds · 0:31100% → 100%
PRSTDrive 13INT13 plays · 58 yds · 5:501% → 0%
Q3 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+15
99.8%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Josh Kraght for 15 yds to the PrtSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:30
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+10
99.8%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Chris Seisay for 10 yds to the Wash 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:34
2ND & 11
OPP 48
+15
99.8%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Wash 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:15
3RD & 7
OPP 30
-3
99.8%
Nate Tago run for a loss of 3 yards to the Wash 33 Nate Tago fumbled, recovered by PrtStSimilar
Q3 9:43
4TH & 10
OPP 33
+15
99.7%
Alex Kuresa pass complete to Maximo Espitia for 15 yds to the Wash 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:52
2ND & 9
OPP 17
0
99.8%
Alex Kuresa pass intercepted, touchback. Sidney Jones return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 14PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 2:04100% → 100%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
99.8%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Wash 10Similar
Q3 8:10
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+1
99.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Chico McClatcher for 1 yd to the Wash 11Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 16
OWN 14
+10
99.9%
Jake Browning pass complete to John Ross for 10 yds to the Wash 24Similar
Q3 6:34
4TH & 6
OWN 24
0
99.9%
Tristan Vizcaino punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 15FG14 plays · 41 yds · 5:110% → 0%
WASHDrive 16TD8 plays · 63 yds · 2:56100% → 100%
Q4 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-8
99.8%
Myles Gaskin run for 7 yds to the WASHINGTON 46 WASHINGTON Penalty, Illegal Batting (-15 Yards) to the Wash 39Similar
Q4 14:00
1ST & 18
OWN 39
+17
99.8%
Jake Browning pass complete to Aaron Fuller for 17 yds to the PrtSt 44Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
99.9%
Myles Gaskin 4 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 17PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 1:210% → 0%
Q4 11:01
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
100.0%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Aaron Fuller at the Wash 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 18PUNT10 plays · 25 yds · 4:26100% → 100%
Q4 8:15
3RD & 5
OPP 43
+4
99.9%
K.J. Carta-Samuels pass complete to David Ajamu for 4 yds to the PrtSt 39Similar
Q4 7:34
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+3
99.9%
Aaron Fuller run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 36 Aaron Fuller fumbled, recovered by Wash Myles Gaskin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:16
4TH & 8
OPP 34
-10
99.9%
WASHINGTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the PrtSt 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
PRSTDrive 19PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 2:020% → 0%
Q4 3:43
4TH & 4
OWN 10
0
100.0%
Marcus Kinsella punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the PrtSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WASHDrive 20TD3 plays · 40 yds · 0:56100% → 100%
PRSTDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:450% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
KEY PLAY · Q3 14:42
Nate Tago run for 3 yds to the PrtSt 28
-1.2
TD · Q2 14:49
Chico McClatcher 13 Yd pass from Jake Browning (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)
+0.4
TD · Q2 13:52
Myles Gaskin 4 Yd Run (Cameron Van Winkle Kick)
+0.4