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IDST

Idaho State 7 at Oregon State 37

ORST
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Reser Stadium
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Win probability · ORST
modelORST aheadIDST aheadconfidence bandkey playORST scoreIDST score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:21 · Sean Cheney punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 25 , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 1 yd to the OrgSt 25
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 28Pregame prior+46.5Home team on offense+1.2Score differential+0.5Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin+0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 4:08: Ryan Nall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 0:06: Garrett Owens 45 yd FG GOOD — IDST win probability +0.3 pts (now 1%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:41: Jakori Ford run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK) — IDST win probability +2.2 pts (now 3%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:35: Victor Bolden Jr. run for 92 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +2.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: ORST has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:13: Tanner Gueller pass intercepted for a TD Treston Decoud return for 75 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK) — ORST win probability +1.1 pts (now 100%) (top driver: IDST has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORST made the numbers' call on 9 of 10IDST made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 12:43ORST 4th & 13 at IDST 13, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.4%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.5%
    85% to make
    Punt
    97.1%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:21IDST 4th & 3 at IDST 41, down 10
    Close callPunted · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:31ORST 4th & 5 at IDST 22, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.6%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    96.2%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 47, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.0%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:52IDST 4th & 10 at ORST 30, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 3.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    3.5%
    56% to make
    Punt
    3.4%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:07ORST 4th & 17 at ORST 35, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.3%−0.4
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:03IDST 4th & 7 at IDST 30, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:06ORST 4th & 4 at IDST 27, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.1%−0.3
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    62% to make
    Punt
    97.8%−0.6
    average punt
  9. Q3 14:35ORST 4th & 8 at ORST 31, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.5
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:08IDST 4th & 8 at IDST 47, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.2%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:54IDST 4th & 7 at ORST 35, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    0.2%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 15:00ORST 4th & 1 at IDST 10, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    99.7%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:54IDST 4th & 4 at IDST 17, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:20ORST 4th & 9 at IDST 29, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    58% to make
    Punt
    99.6%−0.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:20IDST 4th & 5 at IDST 35, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:59ORST 4th & 6 at ORST 45, up 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:27IDST 4th & 4 at IDST 21, down 37
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:46ORST 4th & 1 at ORST 42, up 37
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    100.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORST made the numbers' call on 4 of 4IDST made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 8:27ORST Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 4:08ORST Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 14:41IDST Touchdown, down 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    3.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    3.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:35ORST Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:13ORST Touchdown, up 29 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ORSTDrive 1FG
8 plays · 38 yds · 2:1799% → 98%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
98.6%
Darell Garretson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+44
98.6%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Paul Lucas for 44 yds to the IdaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
98.6%
Seth Collins run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 8Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
-5
98.6%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 5 yards to the IdaSt 13Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 13
0
98.6%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 13
+31
98.3%
Garrett Owens 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 2FUMBLE
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
98.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Kw Williams for 5 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 5
OWN 40
-1
98.3%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Kalani Vakameilalo for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 39Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+9
98.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 9 yds to the IdaSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
98.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Jakori Ford for 3 yds to the OrgSt 49Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 7
OPP 49
0
98.3%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Titus Failauga for 0 yards to the OrgSt 47 Tanner Gueller fumbled, recovered by OrgSt Manase Hungalu , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 3TD
6 plays · 53 yds · 2:1498% → 98%
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
98.2%
Seth Collins run for 7 yds to the IdaSt 46Similar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+9
98.2%
Ryan Nall run for 9 yds to the IdaSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:41
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
98.2%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Tuli Wily-MatagiSimilar
Q1 10:41
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
98.2%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 32Similar
Q1 10:41
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+25
98.2%
Darell Garretson run for 17 yds to the IdaSt 15 for a 1ST down IDAHO ST Penalty, personal foul (Taison Manu) to the IdaSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.1%
Darell Garretson run for 7 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 24 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
98.0%
Jakori Ford run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 19Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 8
OWN 19
0
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 8
OWN 19
+15
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Josh Cook for 15 yds to the IdaSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:21
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Kw Williams for 1 yd to the IdaSt 35Similar
Q1 8:21
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Josh Cook for 6 yds to the IdaSt 41Similar
Q1 8:21
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q1 8:21
4TH & 3
OWN 41
+1
98.0%
Sean Cheney punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 25 , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for 1 yd to the OrgSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 5FG
5 plays · 53 yds · 2:2398% → 98%
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+48
97.8%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 48 yds to the IdaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
97.9%
Paul Lucas run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 26Similar
Q1 5:54
2ND & 9
OPP 26
+4
97.9%
Ryan Nall run for 4 yds to the IdaSt 22Similar
Q1 5:54
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
97.9%
Darell Garretson run for no gain to the IdaSt 22Similar
Q1 3:31
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+40
98.0%
Garrett Owens 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 6INT
10 plays · 44 yds · 0:452% → 2%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.9%
OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the IdaSt 30Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
97.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Jakori Ford for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 11
OWN 29
0
98.0%
Tanner Gueller pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+5
98.0%
OREGON ST Penalty, offside defense (Bright Ugwoegbu) to the IdaSt 34Similar
Q1 2:46
3RD & 6
OWN 34
+12
97.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 12 yds to the IdaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+17
97.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Kw Williams for 17 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
97.9%
Jakori Ford run for 6 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 1:0998% → 98%
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
97.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+12
97.9%
Ryan Nall run for 12 yds to the OrgSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:09
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
98.0%
Ryan Nall run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:09
2ND & 5
50
0
98.0%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Lorenzo Terry IIISimilar
Q1 1:09
3RD & 5
50
-3
98.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 47Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
97.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:012% → 3%
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+1
97.7%
James Madison run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 16Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 9
OWN 16
+26
97.7%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Jakori Ford for 26 yds to the IdaSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
97.6%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Josh Cook for 14 yds to the OrgSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
97.5%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Hagen Graves for 5 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+9
97.5%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Mitch Gueller for 9 yds to the OrgSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
97.5%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch GuellerSimilar
Q2 14:53
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+5
97.5%
Tanner Gueller run for 5 yds to the OrgSt 25Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 5
OPP 25
-5
97.2%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Titus Failauga for a loss of 5 yards to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q2 11:52
4TH & 10
OPP 30
-1
97.4%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Kw Williams for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0098% → 97%
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+11
97.5%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
97.7%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 44Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 44
-9
97.7%
Paul Lucas run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 45 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Ricky Ortiz) to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & 17
OWN 35
0
97.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q2 11:07
3RD & 17
OWN 35
0
97.5%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Ryan NallSimilar
Q2 11:07
4TH & 17
OWN 35
0
97.4%
Nick Porebski punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Hagen Graves at the IdaSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 10INT
5 plays · 29 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
97.2%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch Gueller, broken up by Xavier CrawfordSimilar
Q2 9:11
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
97.3%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch GuellerSimilar
Q2 9:11
3RD & 10
OWN 24
+15
97.3%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Josh Cook for 15 yds to the IdaSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+14
97.2%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Pat Carter for 14 yds to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:11
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
97.1%
Tanner Gueller pass intercepted Caleb Saulo return for 13 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 11TD
8 plays · 40 yds · 3:5497% → 99%
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-5
97.3%
Darell Garretson sacked by Mario Jenkins for a loss of 5 yards to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 15
OPP 45
-1
97.3%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ryan Nall for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 46Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 16
OPP 46
+15
97.2%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 15 yds to the IdaSt 31Similar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 1
OPP 31
+5
97.1%
Nall, Ryan rush for 2 yards to the ISU29 (Mason Jackson;Jake Pettit), PENALTY ISU offside defense (Braiden Beckman) 5 yards to the ISU26, 1ST DOWN OSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
97.3%
Ryan Nall run for no gain to the IdaSt 26Similar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+17
97.3%
Darell Garretson run for 17 yds to the IdaSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
97.3%
Ryan Nall run for 7 yds to the IdaSt 2Similar
Q2 4:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.7%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+10
98.5%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Kw Williams for 10 yds to the IdaSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
98.4%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Jakori Ford for 2 yds to the IdaSt 29Similar
Q2 4:03
2ND & 8
OWN 29
+1
98.4%
Tanner Gueller run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 30Similar
Q2 4:03
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
98.5%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Josh CookSimilar
Q2 4:03
4TH & 7
OWN 30
+1
98.5%
Sean Cheney punt for 46 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for 1 yd to the OrgSt 31 OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the OrgSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 13INT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
98.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 6 yds to the OrgSt 21Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+5
98.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 5 yds to the OrgSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
98.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 5 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+6
98.7%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Xavier Hawkins for 6 yds to the OrgSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
98.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q2 2:08
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
98.8%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q2 2:08
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+3
98.7%
Darell Garretson pass intercepted Jeremy Bittle return for 3 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 14INT
2 plays · 7 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+7
98.4%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Hagen Graves for 7 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q2 1:14
2ND & 3
OPP 41
+43
98.3%
Tanner Gueller pass intercepted Brandon Arnold return for 43 yds to the IdaSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 15FG
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:2299% → 99%
Q2 0:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-1
98.9%
Darell Garretson sacked by Chance Salutregui for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 34Similar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 11
OPP 34
0
99.1%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Victor Bolden Jr.Similar
Q2 0:23
3RD & 11
OPP 34
+7
99.0%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Seth Collins for 7 yds to the IdaSt 27Similar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
98.8%
Garrett Owens 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 16END OF HALF
2 plays · 10 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
98.4%
Jakori Ford run for 10 yds to the IdaSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
96.6%
Jakori Ford run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 14:35
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
97.0%
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 8
OWN 31
0
97.0%
Seth Collins run for no gain to the OrgSt 31Similar
Q3 14:35
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
96.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth Collins, broken up by Jake Pettit OREGON ST Penalty, Offensive pass interference ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 14:35
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Nick Porebski punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Hagen Graves at the IdaSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 27 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+25
96.4%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Josh Cook for 25 yds to the IdaSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch GuellerSimilar
Q3 13:08
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+7
96.2%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Pat Carter for 7 yds to the OrgSt 48Similar
Q3 13:08
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
96.1%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Kw WilliamsSimilar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 3
OPP 48
-5
96.3%
IDAHO ST Penalty, delay of game (Sean Cheney) to the IdaSt 47Similar
Q3 13:08
4TH & 8
OWN 47
0
96.4%
Sean Cheney punt for 38 yds , Victor Bolden Jr. returns for no gain to the OrgSt 8 Victor Bolden Jr. fumbled, forced by Andy Whittier,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 20TD
1 play · 92 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+92
98.8%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 92 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 21INT TD
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:161% → 0%
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
98.7%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Kw Williams for 6 yds to the IdaSt 30Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 4
OWN 30
0
98.6%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Hagen Graves, broken up by Treston DecoudSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 4
OWN 30
+3
98.6%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Josh Cook for 3 yds to the IdaSt 33Similar
Q3 11:29
4TH & 1
OWN 33
+15
98.6%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Hagen Graves, PENALTY OSU pass interference (Decoud, Treston) 15 yards to the ISU48, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:29
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
98.6%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Jakori Ford for a loss of 3 yards to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 13
OWN 45
+5
98.7%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Jakori Ford for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:29
3RD & 8
50
+18
98.6%
Jakori Ford run for 18 yds to the OrgSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:13
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+75
99.7%
Tanner Gueller pass intercepted for a TD Treston Decoud return for 75 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 22TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 8:13
1ST & 0
OWN 35
-15
99.8%
OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Treston Decoud) to the OrgSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 23DOWNS
11 plays · 26 yds · 2:130% → 0%
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
99.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Pat Carter for 6 yds to the IdaSt 45Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+3
99.8%
Jakori Ford run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 48Similar
Q3 8:07
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+14
99.8%
Tanner Gueller sacked by Baker Pritchard and Bright Ugwoegbu for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 47 for a 1ST down OREGON ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Elu Aydon) to the OrgSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
99.8%
IDAHO ST Penalty, false start (Kyle Jones) to the OrgSt 43Similar
Q3 8:07
1ST & 15
OPP 43
0
99.8%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch Gueller, broken up by Caleb SauloSimilar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 15
OPP 43
+5
99.8%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Pat Carter for 5 yds to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 5:54
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+8
99.9%
Jakori Ford run for 8 yds to the OrgSt 30Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 2
OPP 30
-5
99.9%
IDAHO ST Penalty, false start (Jacob Molenaar) to the OrgSt 35Similar
Q3 5:54
4TH & 7
OPP 35
0
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Kw WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 54 yds · 5:05100% → 100%
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Ricky Ortiz for 6 yds to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-3
99.9%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 3 yards to the OrgSt 38Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+16
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Jordan Villamin for 16 yds to the IdaSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
99.9%
Darell Garretson run for 6 yds to the IdaSt 40Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 4
OPP 40
+8
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Victor Bolden Jr. for 8 yds to the IdaSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+8
99.9%
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 8 yds to the IdaSt 24Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 2
OPP 24
+5
99.9%
Darell Garretson run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
99.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 16Similar
Q3 5:05
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+4
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Artavis Pierce for 4 yds to the IdaSt 12Similar
Q3 5:05
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+2
99.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 2 yds to the IdaSt 10Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 10
-1
99.9%
Ryan Nall run for a loss of 1 yard to the IdaSt 11 OREGON ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
99.9%
Ty Flanagan run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 12Similar
Q4 14:54
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+5
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass complete to Pat Carter for 5 yds to the IdaSt 17Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 4
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Mitch GuellerSimilar
Q4 14:54
4TH & 4
OWN 17
0
99.9%
Sean Cheney punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the IdaSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 26MISSED FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:03100% → 100%
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
99.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 7 yds to the IdaSt 36Similar
Q4 13:23
2ND & 3
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Jordan VillaminSimilar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 3
OPP 36
+6
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass complete to Paul Lucas for 6 yds to the IdaSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
99.9%
Pierce, Artavis rush for 18 yards to the ISU12, out-of-bounds (Jeremy Bittle), PENALTY OSU illegal shift 5 yards to the ISU35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:23
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+10
99.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 10 yds to the IdaSt 25Similar
Q4 13:23
3RD & 9
OPP 29
0
99.9%
Darell Garretson pass incomplete to Seth CollinsSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 9
OPP 29
+48
99.9%
Garrett Owens 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 27PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
100.0%
Ty Flanagan run for 5 yds to the IdaSt 35Similar
Q4 10:20
2ND & 5
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Jakori Ford run for no gain to the IdaSt 35Similar
Q4 10:20
3RD & 5
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Tanner Gueller pass incomplete to Hagen GravesSimilar
Q4 10:20
4TH & 5
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Sean Cheney punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the OrgSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+11
99.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 11 yds to the OrgSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+1
99.9%
Artavis Pierce run for 1 yd to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 9
OWN 42
-1
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion sacked by Mario Jenkins for a loss of 1 yard to the OrgSt 41Similar
Q4 8:59
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+4
99.9%
Marcus McMaryion run for 4 yds to the OrgSt 45Similar
Q4 8:59
4TH & 6
OWN 45
0
99.9%
Nick Porebski punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Hagen Graves at the IdaSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 29PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Michael Dean run for no gain to the IdaSt 15Similar
Q4 6:27
2ND & 10
OWN 15
0
100.0%
Tom Jewell pass incomplete, broken up by Jonathan WillisSimilar
Q4 6:27
3RD & 10
OWN 15
+6
100.0%
Michael Dean run for 6 yds to the IdaSt 21Similar
Q4 6:27
4TH & 4
OWN 21
-8
100.0%
Sean Cheney punt for 38 yds , Rahmel Dockery returns for a loss of 8 yards to the OrgSt 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ORSTDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 2:10100% → 100%
Q4 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
100.0%
Tim Cook run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 36Similar
Q4 4:56
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
100.0%
Tim Cook run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 39Similar
Q4 4:56
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+3
100.0%
Tim Cook run for 3 yds to the OrgSt 42Similar
Q4 2:46
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
100.0%
Nick Porebski punt for 58 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
IDSTDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
100.0%
James Madison run for 3 yds to the IdaSt 23Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+1
100.0%
James Madison run for 1 yd to the IdaSt 24Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
100.0%
Tom Jewell pass incomplete to Jordan White (Moore, Jalen), PENALTY OSU personal foul (Moore, Jalen) 15 yards to the ISU39, 1ST DOWN ISU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
100.0%
Tom Jewell pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-4
100.0%
Lonell Woodhouse run for a loss of 4 yards to the IdaSt 35Similar
Q4 2:35
3RD & 14
OWN 35
0
100.0%
Lonell Woodhouse run for no gain to the IdaSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:35
Victor Bolden Jr. run for 92 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+2.4
TD · Q3 14:41
Jakori Ford run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zak Johnson KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q2 4:08
Ryan Nall run for 2 yds for a TD, (Garrett Owens KICK)
+1.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com