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ORE

Oregon 32 at Nebraska 35

NEB
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
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Win probability · NEB
modelNEB aheadORE aheadconfidence bandkey playNEB scoreORE score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:36 · Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+22.0+11.00−11.0−22.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 52Pregame prior+9.2Home team on offense−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.5Score differential−0.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:30: Taj Griffin 50 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ORE win probability +14.5 pts (now 63%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:48: Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Bryan Reimers for 22 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +15.2 pts (now 68%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:42: Kani Benoit run for 41 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ORE win probability +21.1 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 10:31: Tony Brooks-James 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed) — ORE win probability +30.9 pts (now 72%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:29: Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 34 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK) — NEB win probability +51.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: NEB has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NEB made the numbers' call on 7 of 8ORE made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 12:35ORE 4th & 9 at NEB 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    40.4%−0.1
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    40.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05NEB 4th & 7 at NEB 19, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43NEB 4th & 4 at NEB 31, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.4%−0.2
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:58ORE 4th & 14 at ORE 19, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 44.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%−0.8
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    44.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 32, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.2%
    average punt
  6. Q2 12:36NEB 4th & 1 at NEB 40, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    57.8%−0.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:37NEB 4th & 8 at ORE 36, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    58.2%−0.2
    42% to make
    Punt
    58.0%−0.4
    average punt
  8. Q2 6:58ORE 4th & 3 at NEB 25, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    44.8%−0.7
    66% to make
    Punt
    40.3%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:05NEB 4th & 2 at NEB 45, down 13
    Close callPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:34ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.0%−1.8
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:41ORE 4th & 7 at ORE 25, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%−1.5
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.0%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:25NEB 4th & 14 at NEB 49, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%−3.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  13. Q4 9:30NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 35, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.7%−1.5
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:32ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 19, up 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.1 ptsPunted · 66.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%−1.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 3:14NEB 4th & 9 at NEB 48, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.9%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    21.1%−2.9
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:39ORE 4th & 18 at NEB 48, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.3%
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    7.6%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NEB made the numbers' call on 5 of 5ORE made the numbers' call on 0 of 5
  1. Q1 8:19ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    42.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    42.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:05NEB Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    58.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:56ORE Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    53.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    53.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 2:30ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    63.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:05NEB Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 11:48NEB Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    58.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:13NEB Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:42ORE Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    39.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    39.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 10:31ORE Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    62.4%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:29NEB Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.9
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OREDrive 1PUNT
9 plays · 36 yds · 2:1537% → 37%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
63.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 14 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
63.0%
Dakota Prukop run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+6
62.9%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+10
62.9%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Neb 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-1
62.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 46Similar
Q1 13:33
2ND & 11
OPP 46
+2
62.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 2 yds to the Neb 44Similar
Q1 12:41
3RD & 9
OPP 44
0
62.7%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 12:35
4TH & 9
OPP 44
0
62.9%
Ian Wheeler punt for 28 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:1763% → 63%
Q1 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
62.9%
Terrell Newby run for 2 yds to the Neb 18Similar
Q1 11:59
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+1
62.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 1 yd to the Neb 19Similar
Q1 11:16
3RD & 7
OWN 19
0
62.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 7
OWN 19
0
62.5%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 3TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 2:2337% → 41%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
62.6%
Royce Freeman run for no gain to the Oregn 35Similar
Q1 10:30
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
62.7%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 1 yd to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
62.8%
Dakota Prukop run for 10 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
62.3%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q1 9:36
2ND & 1
OPP 45
+6
62.1%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+8
62.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 8 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 8:50
2ND & 2
OPP 31
+5
61.7%
Dakota Prukop run for 5 yds to the Neb 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:41
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
61.6%
Dakota Prukop run for 6 yds to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 8:25
2ND & 4
OPP 20
0
61.7%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 4
OPP 20
+20
59.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 20 yds for a TD, (C. Nelson Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 1:1259% → 58%
Q1 7:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 5 yards to the Neb 20Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+11
58.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 11 yds to the Neb 31Similar
Q1 6:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
58.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
58.4%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 46 yds, downed at the Oregn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 1:3241% → 42%
Q1 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
58.6%
Taj Griffin run for 4 yds to the Oregn 27Similar
Q1 5:59
2ND & 6
OWN 27
-3
58.1%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 9
OWN 24
-5
58.2%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Ross Dzuris for a loss of 5 yards to the Oregn 19Similar
Q1 4:58
4TH & 14
OWN 19
0
58.5%
Ian Wheeler punt for 36 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 6TD
8 plays · 55 yds · 2:4459% → 63%
Q1 4:49
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
58.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 47Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+14
58.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 14 yds to the Oregn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:42
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
58.4%
Terrell Newby run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q1 3:18
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
58.3%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to De'Mornay Pierson-ElSimilar
Q1 3:07
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+10
58.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 10 yds to the Oregn 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
58.6%
Terrell Newby run for 4 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 2:12
2ND & 6
OPP 22
0
57.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q1 2:05
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+22
62.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 22 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 7FUMBLE
7 plays · 7 yds · 1:4139% → 39%
Q1 1:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
60.7%
Tony Brooks-James run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 20Similar
Q1 1:10
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+2
60.7%
Dakota Prukop run for 2 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 13
OWN 22
+1
60.7%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 1 yd to the Oregn 23Similar
Q1 0:21
3RD & 12
OWN 23
-5
61.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 18Similar
Q1 0:01
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+14
60.9%
Dakota Prukop run for 14 yds to the Oregn 32Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 32
-4
60.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 33 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 31 De'Mornay Pierson-El fumbled, recovered by NebSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 8DOWNS
11 plays · 33 yds · 5:0161% → 61%
Q2 14:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
61.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 4 yds to the Neb 35Similar
Q2 14:09
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+5
61.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 1
OWN 40
-5
61.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 35Similar
Q2 12:51
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
60.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 5 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q2 12:36
4TH & 1
OWN 40
+2
60.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 2 yds to the Neb 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:02
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
61.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Neb 42Similar
Q2 11:12
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+20
61.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 20 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:56
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-6
62.5%
De'Mornay Pierson-El run for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 10:15
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+8
61.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Devine Ozigbo for 8 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 8
OPP 36
0
62.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q2 9:37
4TH & 8
OPP 36
0
60.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Alonzo MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 9TD
13 plays · 64 yds · 3:3642% → 53%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
58.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 8 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
57.1%
Kani Benoit run for 4 yds to the Oregn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:50
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+2
57.0%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 8:24
2ND & 8
50
+18
56.6%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 18 yds to the Neb 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
55.9%
Kani Benoit run for 6 yds to the Neb 26Similar
Q2 7:51
2ND & 4
OPP 26
0
54.5%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q2 7:35
3RD & 4
OPP 26
+1
55.9%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Neb 25Similar
Q2 6:58
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+23
57.3%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 23 yds to the Neb 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Neb 1Similar
Q2 6:24
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
53.4%
Dakota Prukop run for a loss of 1 yard to the Neb 2Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 10FUMBLE
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:1249% → 52%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
49.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+8
48.8%
Terrell Newby run for 8 yds to the Neb 33Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+11
49.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 11 yds to the Neb 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+21
50.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 21 yds to the Oregn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
52.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+19
52.4%
Terrell Newby run for 19 yds to the Oregn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:56
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
52.1%
Tre Bryant run for 4 yds to the Oregn 12 Tre Bryant fumbled, recovered by Neb Tre BryantSimilar
Q2 2:39
2ND & 6
OPP 12
+34
51.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard line Tommy Armstrong Jr. fumbled, recovered by Oregn , return for 34 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 11TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
50
+50
37.2%
Taj Griffin 50 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
38.5%
OREGON Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 22 yds · 0:5539% → 39%
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
38.8%
Terrell Newby run for 6 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q2 1:50
2ND & 4
OWN 29
+8
39.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 8 yds to the Neb 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:33
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
39.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 8 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q2 1:19
2ND & 2
OWN 45
0
39.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:14
3RD & 2
OWN 45
0
39.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 1:05
4TH & 2
OWN 45
0
38.7%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 38 yds, downed at the Oregn 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:2664% → 63%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+7
36.4%
Dakota Prukop run for 7 yds to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 0:57
2ND & 3
OWN 24
0
36.3%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Pharaoh BrownSimilar
Q2 0:54
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
36.9%
Taj Griffin run for no gain to the Oregn 24Similar
Q2 0:34
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+45
36.8%
Ian Wheeler punt for 40 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 45 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 14TD
10 plays · 19 yds · 0:2542% → 55%
Q2 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+11
41.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Stanley Morgan Jr. for 11 yds to the Oregn 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
41.1%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
0
42.8%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Jordan WesterkampSimilar
Q2 0:18
3RD & 0
OPP 8
+6
41.2%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & 0
OPP 2
-5
45.2%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 7Similar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 0
OPP 7
+5
45.2%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the Oregn 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
42.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 3Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
Q2 0:05
2ND & 0
OPP 3
+2
55.0%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (2 Yards) to the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 16TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 2:5149% → 68%
Q3 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
49.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 9 yds to the Neb 34Similar
Q3 14:19
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+5
51.2%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:41
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+12
50.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 12 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:22
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
52.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 3 yds to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 12:50
2ND & 7
OPP 46
+18
51.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 18 yds to the Oregn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
52.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 6 yds to the Oregn 22Similar
Q3 11:48
2ND & 4
OPP 22
+22
68.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Bryan Reimers for 22 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5437% → 34%
Q3 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
63.3%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q3 11:29
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
63.5%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q3 11:16
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+3
64.7%
Dakota Prukop run for 3 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 7
OWN 25
0
65.6%
Ian Wheeler punt for 37 yds, fair catch by De'Mornay Pierson-El at the Neb 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 18TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:0165% → 83%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
65.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Neb 38Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+15
65.0%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
67.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Alonzo Moore for 9 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q3 9:27
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+2
67.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 2 yds to the Oregn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+5
67.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Oregn 31Similar
Q3 8:24
2ND & 5
OPP 31
+11
68.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to De'Mornay Pierson-El for 11 yds to the Oregn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
68.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Oregn 16Similar
Q3 7:23
2ND & 6
OPP 16
0
68.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Devine OzigboSimilar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+5
67.5%
OREGON Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the Oregn 11Similar
Q3 7:00
3RD & 1
OPP 11
+4
67.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
69.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for no gain to the Oregn 7Similar
Q3 6:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
82.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 7 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1822% → 42%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
77.9%
Dakota Prukop run for 13 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
76.8%
Taj Griffin run for 7 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+1
75.6%
Devon Allen run for 1 yd to the Oregn 46Similar
Q3 4:38
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+5
76.6%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Neb 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
75.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 6
OPP 45
-11
76.0%
Tony Brooks-James run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41 OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 44Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 17
OWN 44
-10
78.7%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 34Similar
Q3 3:30
2ND & 27
OWN 34
+25
79.4%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 25 yds to the Neb 41Similar
Q3 2:42
3RD & 2
OPP 41
+41
58.3%
Kani Benoit run for 41 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 20PUNT
12 plays · 24 yds · 3:5564% → 63%
Q3 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
64.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 5 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 30
-10
64.7%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 20Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 15
OWN 20
+10
64.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Cethan Carter for 10 yds to the Neb 30Similar
Q3 0:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+6
63.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 6 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
65.9%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
67.8%
Terrell Newby run for no gain to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 14:44
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+13
65.1%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (13 Yards) to the Oregn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
69.2%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:42
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-4
68.7%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. sacked by Tyree Robinson for a loss of 4 yards to the Neb 49Similar
Q4 13:34
3RD & 14
OWN 49
0
64.0%
Ryker Fyfe pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:25
4TH & 14
OWN 49
0
62.6%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Oregn 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 21TD
10 plays · 97 yds · 2:4936% → 72%
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
63.6%
Taj Griffin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 8Similar
Q4 13:01
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+22
64.1%
Dakota Prukop run for 22 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
63.3%
Taj Griffin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 35Similar
Q4 12:25
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+2
61.7%
Dakota Prukop run for 2 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q4 11:52
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+4
62.4%
Dakota Prukop run for 4 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:31
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+46
60.5%
Kani Benoit run for 46 yds to the Neb 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:18
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
56.7%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
-2
56.6%
Dakota Prukop run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 15Similar
Q4 10:48
3RD & 12
OPP 15
+14
59.4%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 14 yds to the Neb 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:31
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
28.4%
Tony Brooks-James 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:3041% → 37%
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
41.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 1 yd to the Neb 35Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
40.4%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 9
OWN 35
0
38.6%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Stanley Morgan Jr.Similar
Q4 9:30
4TH & 9
OWN 35
+5
36.7%
Caleb Lightbourn punt for 58 yds , Darren Carrington II returns for 5 yds to the Oregn 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:3866% → 67%
Q4 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
33.6%
Dakota Prukop run for 1 yd to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 8:50
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
33.2%
Taj Griffin run for no gain to the Oregn 13Similar
Q4 7:59
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+6
33.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Taj Griffin for 6 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
Q4 7:32
4TH & 3
OWN 19
+1
33.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 47 yds , De'Mornay Pierson-El returns for 1 yd to the Neb 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 24TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 5:0340% → 88%
Q4 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-15
39.5%
NEBRASKA Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Neb 20Similar
Q4 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
38.3%
Devine Ozigbo run for 9 yds to the Neb 29Similar
Q4 6:52
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+7
40.0%
Devine Ozigbo run for 7 yds to the Neb 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
37.7%
Devine Ozigbo run for 9 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 5:59
2ND & 1
OWN 45
-5
41.1%
NEBRASKA Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Neb 40Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
42.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 13 yds to the NEBRASKA 47 NEBRASKA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Neb 43Similar
Q4 5:31
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+4
40.8%
Devine Ozigbo run for 4 yds to the Neb 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:33
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-3
37.6%
Devine Ozigbo run for a loss of 3 yards to the Neb 44Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 13
OWN 44
+4
34.1%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 3:38
3RD & 9
OWN 48
0
33.5%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass incomplete to Cethan CarterSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 9
OWN 48
+14
29.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. pass complete to Jordan Westerkamp for 14 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
36.9%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 4 yds to the Oregn 34Similar
Q4 2:29
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+34
88.0%
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 34 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 25DOWNS
10 plays · 30 yds · 1:4227% → 20%
Q4 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
73.3%
Dakota Prukop run for 3 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q4 1:53
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+21
74.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 21 yds to the Oregn 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
69.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 6 yds to the Neb 45Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 4
OPP 45
+5
66.2%
Dakota Prukop run for 5 yds to the Neb 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:09
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
68.5%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 1:04
1ST & 20
50
0
73.4%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 20
50
0
77.8%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 20
50
+9
79.5%
Dakota Prukop sacked by Kevin Maurice for a loss of 7 yards to the Neb 48 Dakota Prukop fumbled, recovered by Oregn , return for 9 yds to the Neb 48Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 18
OPP 48
+3
80.5%
Dakota Prukop run for 3 yds to the Neb 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NEBDrive 26END OF GAME
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
91.5%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Neb 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:29
Tommy Armstrong Jr. run for 34 yds for a TD, (Drew Brown KICK)
+51.1
TD · Q4 10:31
Tony Brooks-James 1 Yd Run (Two-Point Run Conversion Failed)
-30.9
TD · Q3 2:42
Kani Benoit run for 41 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )
-21.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com