Try the model
COLO

Colorado 28 at Michigan 45

MICH
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 17, 2016 · Michigan Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · MICH
modelMICH aheadCOLO aheadconfidence bandkey playMICH scoreCOLO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:27 · Alex Kinney punt for 36 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 54 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+40.5+20.30−20.3−40.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 161Pregame prior+9.8Home team on offense+24.0Score differential+9.1Garbage-time factor+5.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:49: Jehu Chesson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +7.6 pts (now 79%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:33: Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 45 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +10.2 pts (now 84%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:02: Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 70 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK) — COLO win probability +9.9 pts (now 30%) (top driver: COLO has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 13:16: De'Veon Smith run for 42 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +8.3 pts (now 83%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 3:06: Ty Isaac run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK) — MICH win probability +8.7 pts (now 89%) (top driver: MICH has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
MICH made the numbers' call on 7 of 10COLO made the numbers' call on 11 of 11
  1. Q1 13:28MICH 4th & 3 at MICH 45, tied
    Close callPunted · 89.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:24MICH 4th & 8 at COLO 46, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.4%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    87.3%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:27COLO 4th & 5 at COLO 33, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.3%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:56MICH 4th & 10 at midfield, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.2%−0.2
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.4%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:08COLO 4th & 11 at MICH 18, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 25.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%−1.0
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    25.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    20.5%−4.4
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:25MICH 4th & 9 at MICH 32, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−0.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:11COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 45, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.5%−1.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 7:45COLO 4th & 16 at COLO 12, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.1%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 5:30MICH 4th & 6 at COLO 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.0%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.3%
    77% to make
    Punt
    68.4%−4.8
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:28COLO 4th & 10 at COLO 42, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.5%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:59MICH 4th & 11 at COLO 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−1.2
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    68.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    63.6%−5.3
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:43COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.0%−2.7
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.7%
    average punt
  13. Q3 11:58COLO 4th & 15 at COLO 20, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−2.0
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:07MICH 4th & 23 at MICH 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 77.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.0%−3.5
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 8:20COLO 4th & 21 at MICH 40, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−1.9
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    21.9%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.3%
    average punt
  16. Q3 1:46COLO 4th & 9 at COLO 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.5%−1.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.8%
    average punt
  17. Q4 12:28MICH 4th & 4 at COLO 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−0.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 11:27COLO 4th & 12 at COLO 18, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.6%−1.0
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 9:39COLO 4th & 1 at COLO 45, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.8
    average punt
  20. Q4 6:08MICH 4th & 8 at COLO 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.5%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.6%
    64% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.3
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:16MICH 4th & 4 at MICH 44, up 17
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
MICH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4COLO made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:37COLO Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:49COLO Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 8:49MICH Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:33MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:02COLO Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 13:16MICH Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 3:06MICH Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MICHDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 1:1290% → 90%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+12
90.4%
De'Veon Smith run for 12 yds to the Mich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
90.3%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:09
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
90.3%
Jabrill Peppers run for 7 yds to the Mich 45Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
90.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:28
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+32
90.1%
Kenny Allen punt for 36 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 32 yds to the Mich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 2TD
3 plays · 49 yds · 0:3710% → 11%
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+14
89.9%
Jay MacIntyre pass complete to Sefo Liufau for 14 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
89.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for a loss of 2 yards to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+37
89.4%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 37 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 3FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -7 yds · 0:3289% → 89%
Q1 12:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
89.4%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Chris Evans for 3 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
89.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:48
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+18
88.7%
Wilton Speight sacked by Chidobe Awuzie for a loss of 10 yards Wilton Speight fumbled, recovered by Colo Derek McCartney , return for 18 yds for TD (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 29 yds · 1:1889% → 88%
Q1 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
88.7%
Jabrill Peppers run for 17 yds to the Mich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+10
88.6%
Eddie McDoom run for 10 yds to the Colo 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.5%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:02
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
88.4%
Khalid Hill run for 2 yds to the Colo 46Similar
Q1 10:31
3RD & 8
OPP 46
0
88.0%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:24
4TH & 8
OPP 46
0
87.9%
Kenny Allen punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jay MacIntyre at the Colo 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 5PUNT TD
6 plays · 21 yds · 1:4212% → 13%
Q1 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
87.6%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for 3 yds to the Colo 15Similar
Q1 9:58
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+13
87.5%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 13 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
87.0%
Phillip Lindsay run for 1 yd to the Colo 29Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+4
86.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 4 yds to the Colo 33Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 5
OWN 33
0
86.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:27
4TH & 5
OWN 33
+6
87.5%
TEAM punt blocked by Michael Jocz blocked by Michael Jocz Grant Perry return for 6 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 6TD
12 plays · 67 yds · 4:0513% → 18%
Q1 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
87.0%
Donovan Lee run for 3 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q1 7:05
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+3
86.4%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q1 6:55
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+5
86.3%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Colo 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+3
86.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Donovan Lee for 3 yds to the Colo 47Similar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 7
OWN 47
+10
85.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 10 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
85.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Mich 40Similar
Q1 5:10
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+18
85.1%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 18 yds to the Mich 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
84.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:33
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+16
84.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Kabion Ento for 16 yds to the Mich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
84.3%
Sefo Liufau run for no gain to the Mich 6Similar
Q1 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
81.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 25 yds · 2:4382% → 80%
Q1 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
82.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 10 yds to the Mich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
81.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 2:32
2ND & 8
OWN 37
0
81.4%
Chris Evans run for no gain to the Mich 37Similar
Q1 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+13
81.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
50
0
81.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
50
0
80.7%
De'Veon Smith run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 1:04
3RD & 10
50
0
80.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:56
4TH & 10
50
0
79.9%
Kenny Allen punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 62 yds · 2:3821% → 25%
Q1 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+50
78.9%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Bryce Bobo for 50 yds to the Mich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
77.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Mich 28Similar
Q1 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 28
+11
77.3%
Phillip Lindsay run for 11 yds to the Mich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+6
77.1%
Sefo Liufau run for 6 yds to the Mich 11Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 4
OPP 11
-6
75.8%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Ben Gedeon for a loss of 6 yards to the Mich 17Similar
Q2 13:20
3RD & 10
OPP 17
-1
75.2%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for a loss of 1 yard to the Mich 18Similar
Q2 13:08
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+36
75.4%
Diego Gonzalez 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:2976% → 73%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
76.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 9 yds to the Mich 29Similar
Q2 12:34
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
76.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Mich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
75.4%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+1
74.5%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Mich 32Similar
Q2 11:30
3RD & 9
OWN 32
0
73.6%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:25
4TH & 9
OWN 32
0
73.4%
Kenny Allen punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Colo 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 10PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:5328% → 30%
Q2 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-2
72.2%
Devin Ross run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 31Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 12
OWN 31
+14
71.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 14 yds to the Colo 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
70.2%
Phillip Lindsay run for 3 yds to the Colo 48Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 48
-3
69.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Phillip Lindsay for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 45Similar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
68.8%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
69.7%
TEAM punt for a loss of 7 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 11TD
2 plays · 38 yds · 0:1272% → 79%
Q2 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+21
71.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 21 yds to the Colo 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
79.4%
Jehu Chesson run for 17 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 12PUNT
8 plays · -6 yds · 0:4823% → 24%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
76.7%
Phillip Lindsay run for no gain to the Colo 18Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 10
OWN 18
0
75.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:56
3RD & 10
OWN 18
0
76.0%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:56
4TH & 10
OWN 18
-6
76.5%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay of Game (-6 Yards) to the Colo 12Similar
Q2 7:45
4TH & 16
OWN 12
+19
76.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 44 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 19 yds to the Colo 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 13MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 1:4677% → 74%
Q2 7:16
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
76.5%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 2 yds to the Colo 35Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+12
77.0%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 12 yds to the Colo 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
76.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 2 yds to the Colo 21Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+2
76.1%
Wilton Speight run for 2 yds to the Colo 19Similar
Q2 5:34
3RD & 6
OPP 19
0
75.1%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:30
4TH & 6
OPP 19
+37
74.0%
Kenny Allen 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:4828% → 28%
Q2 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
71.8%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 7 yds to the Colo 27Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+15
70.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 15 yds to the Colo 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
69.5%
COLORADO Penalty, Illegal Touching ( 0 Yards) to the Colo 42. Loss of DownSimilar
Q2 4:44
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
69.9%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:40
3RD & 10
OWN 42
0
70.4%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:28
4TH & 10
OWN 42
+13
71.7%
Alex Kinney punt for 34 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 13 yds to the Mich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 15FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 2:2372% → 73%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
72.1%
Jehu Chesson run for 6 yds to the Mich 43Similar
Q2 4:15
2ND & 4
OPP 43
+27
73.9%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 12 yds Jake Butt fumbled, recovered by Mich COLORADO Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (15 Yards) to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
74.7%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q2 3:30
2ND & 6
OPP 26
+7
74.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Khalid Hill for 7 yds to the Colo 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-1
73.7%
Ty Isaac run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 11
OPP 20
0
73.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:10
3RD & 11
OPP 20
0
71.5%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:59
4TH & 11
OPP 20
+39
73.4%
Kenny Allen 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:0728% → 27%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
72.1%
COLORADO Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Colo 15Similar
Q2 1:37
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
72.5%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:30
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+3
72.7%
Sefo Liufau run for 3 yds to the Colo 18Similar
Q2 1:22
3RD & 17
OWN 18
+2
73.2%
Sefo Liufau run for 2 yds to the Colo 20Similar
Q2 0:43
4TH & 15
OWN 20
+13
73.4%
Alex Kinney punt for 38 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 13 yds to the Colo 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 17TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:33
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
83.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 45 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
80.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Colo 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 19TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 0:4119% → 30%
Q3 14:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
80.7%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 6 yds to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 14:32
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+4
80.2%
Sefo Liufau run for 4 yds to the Colo 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+70
70.3%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 70 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 20TD
3 plays · 45 yds · 0:2475% → 83%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
74.7%
Wilton Speight run for 3 yds to the Colo 42Similar
Q3 13:16
2ND & 7
OPP 42
+42
83.0%
De'Veon Smith run for 42 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 1:0020% → 19%
Q3 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
80.0%
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Devin Ross for 3 yds to the Colo 28Similar
Q3 12:51
2ND & 7
OWN 28
0
79.7%
Sefo Liufau pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 12:20
3RD & 7
OWN 28
-8
80.3%
Sefo Liufau sacked by Ryan Glasgow for a loss of 8 yards to the Colo 20Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 15
OWN 20
0
81.3%
Alex Kinney punt for 51 yds, downed at the Mich 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:3980% → 78%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
80.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for 2 yds to the Mich 31Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 8
OWN 31
-5
80.2%
MICHIGAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Mich 26Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 13
OWN 26
-5
79.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to De'Veon Smith for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 21Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 18
OWN 21
0
78.4%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:18
4TH & 18
OWN 21
-5
77.9%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the Mich 16Similar
Q3 10:07
4TH & 23
OWN 16
+16
77.9%
Kenny Allen punt for 44 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 16 yds to the Mich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 1:2324% → 21%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
75.8%
Steven Montez run for no gain to the Mich 44Similar
Q3 9:33
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+15
75.8%
MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Mich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:22
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
74.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-11
74.5%
Steven Montez sacked by Jabrill Peppers for a loss of 11 yards to the Mich 40Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 21
OPP 40
0
77.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 8:20
4TH & 21
OPP 40
0
78.6%
Alex Kinney punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 24TD
11 plays · 80 yds · 5:0879% → 89%
Q3 8:14
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
79.1%
Jehu Chesson run for 2 yds to the Mich 22 MICHIGAN Penalty, Personal Foul (-11 Yards) to the Mich 11Similar
Q3 7:45
1ST & 19
OWN 11
+21
78.8%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Ty Isaac for 21 yds to the Mich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
79.1%
COLORADO Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Mich 37Similar
Q3 6:45
1ST & 5
OWN 37
+1
80.2%
Chris Evans run for 1 yd to the Mich 38Similar
Q3 6:20
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+5
80.2%
De'Veon Smith run for 5 yds to the Mich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+4
80.1%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q3 5:30
2ND & 6
OWN 47
-8
80.3%
Wilton Speight sacked by Samson Kafovalu for a loss of 8 yards to the Mich 39Similar
Q3 4:40
3RD & 14
OWN 39
+54
76.6%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Grant Perry for 54 yds to the Colo 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
80.8%
De'Veon Smith run for 4 yds to the Colo 3Similar
Q3 3:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
80.5%
Ty Isaac run for 2 yds to the Colo 1Similar
Q3 3:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
89.2%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 25PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:0412% → 11%
Q3 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.9%
Phillip Lindsay run for 4 yds to the Colo 29Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
87.5%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 31Similar
Q3 1:57
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
88.0%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 1:57
4TH & 4
OWN 31
-5
88.6%
COLORADO Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Colo 26Similar
Q3 1:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
89.1%
Alex Kinney punt for 53 yds, downed at the Mich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:5889% → 89%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
88.9%
Ty Isaac run for 3 yds to the Mich 24Similar
Q3 0:59
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+15
89.1%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 15 yds to the Mich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
90.1%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 14:50
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+3
90.3%
Wilton Speight run for 3 yds to the Mich 47Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+6
89.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 6 yds to the Colo 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:52
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
90.3%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Colo 46Similar
Q4 12:45
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
90.6%
Chris Evans run for 5 yds to the Colo 41Similar
Q4 12:37
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
90.2%
Wilton Speight pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:28
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
89.4%
Kenny Allen punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 27PUNT RETURN TD
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:4911% → 3%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
89.2%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 18Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 12
OWN 18
0
89.5%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:41
3RD & 12
OWN 18
0
90.1%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:27
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+54
96.9%
Alex Kinney punt for 36 yds , Jabrill Peppers returns for 54 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:283% → 3%
Q4 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
96.6%
Michael Adkins II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Colo 34Similar
Q4 10:40
2ND & 12
OWN 34
+10
97.0%
Steven Montez run for 10 yds to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 9:55
3RD & 2
OWN 44
+1
96.8%
Jordan Gehrke pass complete to Michael Adkins II for 1 yd to the Colo 45Similar
Q4 9:39
4TH & 1
OWN 45
0
96.9%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 29MISSED FG
7 plays · 18 yds · 3:0797% → 98%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
97.3%
Ty Isaac run for no gain to the Colo 44Similar
Q4 9:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+4
97.3%
Chris Evans run for 4 yds to the Colo 40Similar
Q4 8:07
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+12
97.3%
Wilton Speight pass complete to Jake Butt for 12 yds to the Colo 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
97.5%
Ty Isaac run for 5 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 7:29
2ND & 5
OPP 23
+1
97.5%
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd to the Colo 22Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 4
OPP 22
-4
97.7%
Wilton Speight sacked by Jimmie Gilbert for a loss of 4 yards to the Colo 26Similar
Q4 6:08
4TH & 8
OPP 26
+44
97.6%
Kenny Allen 44 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 30PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:013% → 2%
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
97.4%
Steven Montez pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 10
OWN 26
-5
97.4%
COLORADO Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Colo 21Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 15
OWN 21
+2
97.6%
Phillip Lindsay run for 2 yds to the Colo 23Similar
Q4 5:00
3RD & 13
OWN 23
-3
98.1%
Steven Montez sacked by Maurice Hurst for a loss of 3 yards to the Colo 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MICHDrive 31PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 2:0498% → 98%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
98.1%
Karan Higdon run for 8 yds to the Mich 46Similar
Q4 3:30
2ND & 2
OWN 46
-5
98.3%
Eddie McDoom run for a loss of 5 yards to the Mich 41Similar
Q4 2:40
3RD & 7
OWN 41
+3
98.3%
John O'Korn run for 3 yds to the Mich 44Similar
Q4 2:16
4TH & 4
OWN 44
+10
98.2%
Kenny Allen punt for 35 yds , Jay MacIntyre returns for 10 yds to the Colo 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
COLODrive 32END OF GAME
4 plays · 17 yds · 1:512% → 2%
Q4 1:51
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
98.1%
Kyle Evans run for 5 yds to the Colo 36Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+3
98.1%
Kyle Evans run for 3 yds to the Colo 39Similar
Q4 0:30
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+7
98.1%
Kyle Evans run for 7 yds to the Colo 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
98.1%
Kyle Evans run for 2 yds to the Colo 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:33
Wilton Speight pass complete to Amara Darboh for 45 yds for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+10.2
TD · Q3 14:02
Sefo Liufau pass complete to Shay Fields for 70 yds for a TD, (Diego Gonzalez KICK)
-9.9
TD · Q3 3:06
Ty Isaac run for 1 yd for a TD, (Kenny Allen KICK)
+8.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com