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Win probability · STAN
modelSTAN aheadUSC aheadconfidence bandkey playSTAN scoreUSC score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:22 · Chris Tilbey punt for 49 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:18: Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 56 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +4.1 pts (now 69%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q2 2:11: Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +5.3 pts (now 80%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q2 1:13: Christian McCaffrey run for 2 yds to the Stanf 12 — STAN win probability +4.9 pts (now 84%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
- TD · Q3 11:24: Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +12.5 pts (now 32%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
- TD · Q3 3:26: Michael Rector run for 56 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK) — STAN win probability +10.1 pts (now 93%) (top driver: STAN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
STAN made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 12:32STAN 4th & 13 at STAN 33, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snapGo for it67.6%−0.220% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call67.8%average punt
- Q1 8:22USC 4th & 7 at STAN 49, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snapGo for it32.9%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call33.0%average punt
- Q1 0:26USC 4th & 9 at STAN 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 29.6% before the snapGo for it29.2%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call29.5%58% to makePunt27.2%−2.2average punt
- Q2 9:31STAN 4th & 9 at USC 14, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snapGo for it67.2%−0.529% to convertField goalTheir call67.7%84% to makePunt64.2%−3.5average punt
- Q2 6:36USC 4th & 8 at USC 37, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.6% before the snapGo for it25.9%−0.634% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.5%average punt
- Q2 2:11STAN 4th & 1 at USC 1, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call73.5%59% to convertField goal71.4%−2.294% to makePunt66.4%−7.1average punt
- Q2 1:13USC 4th & 5 at STAN 41, down 14Close callPunted · 18.8% before the snapGo for it18.7%42% to convertField goal18.2%−0.432% to makePuntTheir call18.1%−0.5average punt
- Q3 5:44STAN 4th & 9 at USC 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 79.0% before the snapGo for it78.8%−0.631% to convertField goalTheir call79.4%66% to makePunt72.6%−6.8average punt
- Q3 4:19USC 4th & 6 at USC 29, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.3% before the snapGo for it16.5%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call17.2%average punt
- Q4 14:06USC 4th & 1 at STAN 18, down 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.9%71% to convertField goal4.2%−1.779% to makePunt-1.2%−7.1average punt
- Q4 9:12USC 4th & 6 at STAN 44, down 17Close callPunted · 3.8% before the snapGo for it3.6%40% to convertField goal2.9%−0.727% to makePuntTheir call3.5%−0.1average punt
- Q4 4:20STAN 4th & 1 at STAN 43, up 17Close callPunted · 97.9% before the snapGo for it98.1%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.7%−0.4average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
STAN made the numbers' call on 3 of 3USC made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 4:18STAN Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.6%97% to makeGo for two69.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:11STAN Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.1%97% to makeGo for two82.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 11:24USC Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call23.2%97% to makeGo for two23.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 3:26STAN Touchdown, up 16 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call91.7%97% to makeGo for two91.6%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartSTANDrive 1PUNT8 plays · 8 yds · 2:2865% → 65%
Q1 14:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+11
65.4%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Stanf 36 Christian McCaffrey fumbled, forced by Porter Gustin, recovered by Stanf Trenton Irwin for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-2
65.4%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Francis Owusu for a loss of 2 yards to the Stanf 34Similar
Q1 12:32
4TH & 13
OWN 33
+47
65.0%
Jake Bailey punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STANFORD 30 USC Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the USC 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 2PUNT9 plays · 31 yds · 4:1035% → 35%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 3TD8 plays · 80 yds · 4:0465% → 69%
USCDrive 4FG12 plays · 54 yds · 3:4632% → 35%
Q1 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+23
67.8%
Max Browne pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 23 yds to the USC 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:46
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+19
67.1%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 19 yds to the Stanf 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 15
OPP 35
+11
66.6%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 11 yds to the Stanf 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 5FG16 plays · 60 yds · 5:2966% → 69%
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 31
+3
65.8%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Michael Rector for 3 yds to the Stanf 34Similar
Q2 14:36
3RD & 2
OWN 34
+9
65.6%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 9 yds to the Stanf 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+15
67.7%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Trenton Irwin for 15 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:02
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+11
67.5%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Dalton Schultz for 11 yds to the USC 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 17 yds · 2:5531% → 29%
Q2 8:52
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+7
68.5%
Max Browne pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 7 yds to the USC 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:56
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-9
69.2%
Max Browne sacked by Casey Toohill for a loss of 9 yards to the USC 28Similar
Q2 6:36
4TH & 8
OWN 37
+20
71.0%
Chris Tilbey punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the STANFORD 28 USC Penalty, Illegal Block (Ajene Harris) to the Stanf 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 7TD9 plays · 57 yds · 4:2572% → 80%
Q2 2:11
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
80.2%
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 8PUNT9 plays · 24 yds · 0:5822% → 21%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+5
78.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Tyler Petite for 5 yds Tyler Petite fumbled, recovered by USC JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q2 1:51
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+19
78.7%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 19 yds to the Stanf 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+5
77.2%
Max Browne pass complete to Justin Davis for 5 yds to the Stanf 41Similar
Q2 1:13
4TH & 5
OPP 41
0
79.3%
Chris Tilbey punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 9END OF HALF2 plays · 9 yds · 1:1384% → 84%
USCDrive 10TD10 plays · 75 yds · 3:3618% → 32%
Q3 13:52
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
82.2%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the USC 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-3
81.5%
Max Browne pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for a loss of 3 yards to the Stanf 45Similar
Q3 11:57
2ND & 13
OPP 45
+38
82.7%
Max Browne pass complete to Tyler Petite for 38 yds to the Stanf 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 11FG11 plays · 50 yds · 5:4074% → 81%
Q3 6:29
3RD & 10
OPP 26
+1
79.5%
Ryan Burns pass complete to Christian McCaffrey for 1 yd to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2520% → 17%
Q3 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Justin Davis for no gain to the USC 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 13TD2 plays · 62 yds · 0:5383% → 93%
USCDrive 14DOWNS13 plays · 57 yds · 4:208% → 6%
Q3 2:43
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+4
92.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 4 yds to the USC 45Similar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+6
92.6%
Max Browne pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 6 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:42
3RD & 18
OWN 43
+30
93.8%
Max Browne pass complete to Tyler Petite for 30 yds to the Stanf 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 15INT5 plays · 14 yds · 2:5795% → 96%
Q4 11:09
3RD & 9
OPP 32
-15
96.2%
Ryan Burns pass intercepted Adoree' Jackson return for no gain to the USC 32 STANFORD Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Francis Owusu) to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 16PUNT7 plays · 15 yds · 1:575% → 4%
Q4 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
95.4%
Max Browne pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 2 yds to the USC 43Similar
Q4 10:22
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+9
95.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the Stanf 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:12
4TH & 6
OPP 44
0
96.0%
Chris Tilbey punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Christian McCaffrey at the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 35 yds · 4:5296% → 98%
Q4 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
96.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 11 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:40
3RD & 2
OWN 39
-5
97.1%
Christian McCaffrey run for 10 yds to the Stanf 49 STANFORD Penalty, Personal Foul (Christian McCaffrey) to the Stanf 34Similar
Q4 4:20
4TH & 1
OWN 43
+25
98.2%
Jake Bailey punt for 44 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 25 yds to the USC 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 18INT9 plays · 45 yds · 2:332% → 2%
Q4 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
97.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the USC 47Similar
Q4 4:01
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
97.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 4 yds to the Stanf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+2
97.8%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 2 yds to the Stanf 47Similar
Q4 2:54
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+28
98.0%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 28 yds to the Stanf 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:28
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+2
97.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 2 yds to the Stanf 17Similar
Q4 1:47
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+8
97.9%
Sam Darnold pass intercepted Noor Davis return for 8 yds to the Stanf 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
STANDrive 19END OF GAME3 plays · 9 yds · 1:4799% → 99%
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:24
Ronald Jones II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
-12.5
TD · Q3 3:26
Michael Rector run for 56 yds for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+10.1
TD · Q2 2:11
Christian McCaffrey run for 1 yd for a TD, (Conrad Ukropina KICK)
+5.3