Try the model
ASU

Arizona State 32 at UTSA 28

UTSA
2016 · Week 3 · Sep 16, 2016 · Alamodome
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · UTSA
modelUTSA aheadASU aheadconfidence bandkey playUTSA scoreASU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 7:05 · Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tim White at the ArzSt 42
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Pregame prior−5.7Home team on offense+8.4Garbage-time factor+3.2Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:03: Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ASU win probability +8.6 pts (now 68%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 12:25: Dalton Sturm run for 34 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +12.6 pts (now 52%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:20: Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK) — UTSA win probability +17.5 pts (now 74%) (top driver: UTSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:40: Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 45 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +28.2 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. TD · Q4 3:15: Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +42.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UTSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11ASU made the numbers' call on 2 of 8
  1. Q1 12:09ASU 4th & 6 at UTSA 36, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 85.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.0%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%−<0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    85.9%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:10UTSA 4th & 1 at ASU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    15.8%−0.2
    66% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:31ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 30, down 4
    Close callPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:39UTSA 4th & 10 at UTSA 31, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:22ASU 4th & 7 at ASU 28, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.7%−0.3
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:32UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:11UTSA 4th & 7 at UTSA 45, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.1%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:02ASU 4th & 4 at UTSA 36, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 64.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    64.1%−0.9
    42% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−1.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:09UTSA 4th & 10 at ASU 37, up 8
    Close callPunted · 40.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    39.5%−<0.1
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    38.7%−0.8
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:47ASU 4th & 7 at UTSA 35, down 9
    Close callKicked a field goal · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.3%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    46.5%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−2.2
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:28UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 41, up 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.8%−0.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:58ASU 4th & 4 at UTSA 27, down 16
    Close callKicked a field goal · 22.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%−0.6
    62% to make
    Punt
    15.1%−7.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:54UTSA 4th & 11 at UTSA 24, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.8%−4.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:55ASU 4th & 8 at UTSA 8, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.8%
    90% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−8.7
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:44UTSA 4th & 2 at UTSA 33, up 10
    Close callPunted · 77.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.0%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:36UTSA 4th & 4 at UTSA 31, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.6%−1.4
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:40ASU 4th & 1 at ASU 40, down 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 4.8 ptsPunted · 40.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%−4.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:05UTSA 4th & 9 at UTSA 20, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.6%−4.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:10UTSA 4th & 24 at UTSA 32, down 4
    Numbers favored punt by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.9%−1.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UTSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4ASU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
  1. Q1 5:58UTSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:43UTSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:03ASU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    66.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    66.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 12:25UTSA Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 8:20UTSA Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:40ASU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.7%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:15ASU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.9%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1FG
10 plays · 30 yds · 2:4688% → 87%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
12.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 3 yds to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+6
12.2%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 1
OWN 43
+7
12.3%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
50
-10
12.4%
Wilkins, Manny pass sacked for loss of 2 yards to the ARIZONAST48 (Davenport, Marcus), PENALTY ARIZONAST holding 10 yards to the ARIZONAST40, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:55
1ST & 20
OWN 40
+20
12.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 20 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
12.6%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:20
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
12.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q1 12:45
3RD & 6
OPP 36
0
12.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q1 12:09
4TH & 6
OPP 36
+54
13.1%
Zane Gonzalez 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 2TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0213% → 18%
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+22
13.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 22 yds to the TexSA 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:32
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
13.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 48Similar
Q1 10:49
2ND & 9
OWN 48
-6
13.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Carlos Mendoza for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 42Similar
Q1 10:22
3RD & 15
OWN 42
+24
13.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 24 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:43
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
14.5%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q1 9:03
2ND & 7
OPP 31
-1
14.9%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q1 8:24
3RD & 8
OPP 32
+7
15.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 7 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q1 8:10
4TH & 1
OPP 25
+10
14.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 10 yds to the ArzSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:25
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-5
15.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 7:12
1ST & 15
OPP 20
0
15.7%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the ArzSt 20Similar
Q1 6:33
2ND & 15
OPP 20
+10
16.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 10 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q1 5:58
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
17.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 10 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:5983% → 81%
Q1 5:30
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
17.3%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 26Similar
Q1 5:20
2ND & 7
OWN 26
0
17.3%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ellis JeffersonSimilar
Q1 5:10
3RD & 7
OWN 26
+4
18.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 4:31
4TH & 3
OWN 30
0
18.8%
Matt Haack punt for 49 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 4FUMBLE
5 plays · 10 yds · 1:4318% → 19%
Q1 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
18.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to JaBryce Taylor for 10 yds to the TexSA 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-2
18.4%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 29Similar
Q1 4:00
2ND & 12
OWN 29
+2
18.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 2 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q1 3:30
3RD & 10
OWN 31
0
18.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 10
OWN 31
-6
18.9%
Andrew King punt for 49 yds , Kalen Ballage returns for a loss of 6 yards to the ArzSt 14 Kalen Ballage fumbled, recovered by TexSASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 5TD
3 plays · 14 yds · 0:4720% → 24%
Q1 2:30
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
20.3%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+3
20.7%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 11Similar
Q1 1:43
3RD & 7
OPP 11
+11
23.5%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jalen Rhodes for 11 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:1576% → 74%
Q1 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.7%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q1 1:31
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
23.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 5 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-2
24.4%
Manny Wilkins sacked by La'Kel Bass for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 28Similar
Q1 0:22
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
25.7%
Matt Haack punt for 44 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 1:3825% → 27%
Q1 0:10
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
24.9%
Jalen Rhodes run for 1 yd to the TexSA 29Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 29
+13
25.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 13 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:11
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
26.8%
Jalen Rhodes run for 3 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 13:44
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
27.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Trevor StevensSimilar
Q2 13:40
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
26.9%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 7
OWN 45
0
27.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Gump Hayes at the ArzSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 8INT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:0472% → 69%
Q2 13:22
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
27.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 22Similar
Q2 13:00
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+12
28.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
28.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 12:20
2ND & 3
OWN 41
+4
28.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the ArzSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
28.6%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q2 11:26
2ND & 12
OWN 43
-10
30.0%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the ArzSt 33Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 22
OWN 33
0
31.0%
Manny Wilkins pass intercepted Nate Gaines return for no gain to the TexSA 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 1:3432% → 34%
Q2 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
31.5%
Dalton Sturm sacked by JoJo Wicker and Renell Wren for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 26Similar
Q2 10:30
2ND & 14
OWN 26
+16
32.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 16 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+3
34.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 3 yds to the TexSA 45Similar
Q2 9:25
2ND & 7
OWN 45
0
35.0%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jarveon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 9:19
3RD & 7
OWN 45
0
34.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 7
OWN 45
+46
33.5%
Yannis Routsas punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Gump Hayes at the TEXASSAN 19 ARIZONA ST Penalty, Offensive Holding (10 Yards) to the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 0:5365% → 68%
Q2 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+39
35.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 39 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
33.0%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 8:40
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+10
33.6%
Demario Richard run for 10 yds to the TexSA 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
33.1%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the TexSA 36Similar
Q2 8:13
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
33.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:08
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
33.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q2 8:02
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+54
32.4%
Zane Gonzalez 54 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 38 yds · 4:4733% → 39%
Q2 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
32.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Josh StewartSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
32.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Josh Stewart for 12 yds to the TexSA 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
34.3%
Jarveon Williams run for 1 yd to the TexSA 38Similar
Q2 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+6
35.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 6 yds to the TexSA 44Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+7
36.1%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 7 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:30
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+12
38.4%
Dalton Sturm run for 12 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+7
39.3%
Jalen Rhodes run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 3
OPP 30
-2
40.5%
Jalen Rhodes run for a loss of 2 yards to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q2 3:36
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-5
40.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Illegal Motion (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 37Similar
Q2 3:17
3RD & 10
OPP 37
0
40.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Greg Campbell Jr.Similar
Q2 3:09
4TH & 10
OPP 37
0
38.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 28 yds, downed at the ArzSt 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 12TD
16 plays · 91 yds · 2:5159% → 68%
Q2 2:54
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
40.6%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 14Similar
Q2 2:22
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+3
41.3%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q2 2:00
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+5
42.6%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the ArzSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
42.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 1:17
2ND & 7
OWN 25
-1
42.4%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 8
OWN 24
+13
43.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds to the ArzSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
41.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+11
42.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 11 yds to the ArzSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
40.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+12
41.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 12 yds to the TexSA 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
41.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Ellis JeffersonSimilar
Q2 0:11
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+13
41.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 13 yds to the TexSA 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+27
32.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 27 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 14TD
6 plays · 92 yds · 2:2034% → 52%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
-2
33.8%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 6Similar
Q3 14:08
2ND & 12
OWN 6
+10
34.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Kerry Thomas Jr. for 10 yds to the TexSA 16Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 2
OWN 16
+48
33.9%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 48 yds to the ArzSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
39.2%
Dalton Sturm run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 34
+34
51.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 34 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 2:1851% → 48%
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
49.5%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 23Similar
Q3 11:36
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+15
50.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 15 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+13
49.1%
Manny Wilkins run for 13 yds to the TexSA 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
48.0%
Demario Richard run for 11 yds to the TexSA 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:39
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
48.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+3
48.9%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexSA 35Similar
Q3 9:54
3RD & 7
OPP 35
0
50.1%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 9:47
4TH & 7
OPP 35
+52
52.4%
Zane Gonzalez 53 Yard Field Goal MissedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 16FUMBLE
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:1556% → 57%
Q3 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
56.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jarveon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+6
56.2%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 6 yds to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 8:40
3RD & 4
OWN 41
0
58.0%
Dalton Sturm run for no gain to the TexSA 41Similar
Q3 8:28
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
56.8%
Yannis Routsas punt for 35 yds , Gump Hayes returns for no gain to the ArzSt 24 Gump Hayes fumbled, recovered by TexSA Aneas HenricksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 17TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
74.3%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:5531% → 29%
Q3 7:53
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
69.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 5 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q3 7:36
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+5
69.4%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
70.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 6 yds to the TexSA 48 Kalen Ballage fumbled, recovered by ArzSt N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+15
69.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 15 yds to the TexSA 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
68.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q3 6:08
2ND & 10
OPP 33
0
69.7%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the TexSA 33Similar
Q3 5:33
3RD & 10
OPP 33
+6
72.7%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the TexSA 27Similar
Q3 4:58
4TH & 4
OPP 27
+45
70.6%
Zane Gonzalez 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:5777% → 76%
Q3 4:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.8%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q3 4:30
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-1
77.1%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 24Similar
Q3 4:05
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
76.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Jarveon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+16
75.7%
Yannis Routsas punt for 40 yds , Tim White returns for 16 yds to the TexSA 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 20FG
11 plays · 40 yds · 3:4529% → 28%
Q3 3:40
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+13
70.9%
Demario Richard run for 13 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:30
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
69.7%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the TexSA 34Similar
Q3 2:58
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+4
70.7%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the TexSA 30Similar
Q3 2:35
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+9
72.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 9 yds to the TexSA 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
71.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 4 yds to the TexSA 17Similar
Q3 1:54
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+4
71.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the TexSA 13Similar
Q3 1:34
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+4
74.2%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the TexSA 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
74.2%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the TexSA 5Similar
Q3 0:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
74.7%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the TexSA 4Similar
Q3 0:24
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
76.9%
Manny Wilkins run for a loss of 4 yards to the TexSA 8Similar
Q4 14:55
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+26
72.5%
Zane Gonzalez 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:5775% → 79%
Q4 14:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.9%
Dalton Sturm run for 3 yds to the TexSA 28Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-3
74.9%
Jarveon Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexSA 25Similar
Q4 13:11
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+8
77.4%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 8 yds to the TexSA 33Similar
Q4 12:44
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
78.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Tim White at the ArzSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 22TD
4 plays · 68 yds · 0:5021% → 48%
Q4 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+2
78.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 8
OWN 34
0
78.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frederick GammageSimilar
Q4 12:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+21
80.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 21 yds to the TexSA 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
52.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 45 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 23PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:5862% → 63%
Q4 11:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q4 11:21
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
62.1%
Dalton Sturm run for 6 yds to the TexSA 31Similar
Q4 10:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
63.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 10:36
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
62.9%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tim White at the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4442% → 40%
Q4 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-1
58.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 30Similar
Q4 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 30
+5
59.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 35Similar
Q4 9:10
3RD & 6
OWN 35
+5
60.3%
Manny Wilkins run for 5 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q4 8:40
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
60.3%
Matt Haack punt for 41 yds, fair catch by JaBryce Taylor at the TexSA 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1867% → 64%
Q4 8:23
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
66.5%
Jarveon Williams run for no gain to the TexSA 19Similar
Q4 7:51
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+1
66.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Jarveon Williams for 1 yd to the TexSA 20Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 9
OWN 20
0
65.6%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Kerry Thomas Jr.Similar
Q4 7:05
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
64.4%
Yannis Routsas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Tim White at the ArzSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 26TD
11 plays · 58 yds · 3:4542% → 87%
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
57.6%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 43Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
59.9%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to N'Keal HarrySimilar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+34
62.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 34 yds to the TexSA 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
55.2%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the TexSA 18Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 5
OPP 18
+3
55.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexSA 15Similar
Q4 5:08
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+7
55.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the TexSA 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
54.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds to the TexSA 4Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
54.8%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the TexSA 3Similar
Q4 3:20
3RD & 0
OPP 3
+1
55.2%
TEXASSAN Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (1 Yards) to the TexSA 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 27DOWNS
5 plays · 11 yds · 1:2727% → 26%
Q4 3:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
27.4%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to JaBryce TaylorSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
26.8%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Brady Jones for 10 yds to the TexSA 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:05
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
26.8%
Dalton Sturm run for 1 yd to the TexSA 36Similar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 9
OWN 36
0
25.7%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UTSADrive 28DOWNS
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:3024% → 17%
Q4 1:40
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+10
24.0%
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Marquez McNair for 10 yds to the TexSA 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:36
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
29.1%
Dalton Sturm pass incomplete to Marquez McNairSimilar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-6
26.8%
Dalton Sturm sacked by Viliami Latu for a loss of 6 yards to the TexSA 40Similar
Q4 1:19
3RD & 16
OWN 40
-8
20.7%
Dalton Sturm sacked by JoJo Wicker for a loss of 8 yards to the TexSA 32Similar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 24
OWN 32
0
16.5%
Dalton Sturm pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:3396% → 96%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-2
4.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the TexSA 34Similar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 12
OPP 34
-1
4.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexSA 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 3:15
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
-42
TD · Q4 11:40
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 45 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
-28.2
TD · Q3 8:20
Dalton Sturm pass complete to Shaq Williams for 24 yds for a TD, (Victor Falcon KICK)
+17.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com