Try the model
UVA

Virginia 26 at Oregon 44

ORE
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Autzen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ORE
modelORE aheadUVA aheadconfidence bandkey playORE scoreUVA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 2:48 · Dakota Prukop pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 5 yds to the Virg 33
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.0+20.50−20.5−41.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 188Pregame prior+2.5Home team on offense+29.8Score differential+15.2Garbage-time factor+14.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.1Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:28: Albert Reid run for 7 yds for a TD, (Dylan Sims PAT MISSED) — UVA win probability +2.1 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:50: Dakota Prukop pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +3.1 pts (now 92%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:05: Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 11 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +4.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:22: Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Sims KICK) — UVA win probability +4.5 pts (now 8%) (top driver: UVA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 8:53: Dakota Prukop pass complete to Devon Allen for 77 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK) — ORE win probability +2.5 pts (now 97%) (top driver: ORE has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ORE made the numbers' call on 3 of 5UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 5
  1. Q1 14:11UVA 4th & 4 at UVA 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:59ORE 4th & 5 at ORE 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.0%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 8:29UVA 4th & 8 at ORE 21, tied
    Close callWent for it · 11.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    11.5%
    74% to make
    Punt
    11.1%−0.4
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:18UVA 4th & 17 at ORE 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.7%−0.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    12.0%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    12.1%
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:20UVA 4th & 10 at ORE 38, down 14
    Close callPunted · 9.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    9.2%−0.1
    38% to make
    PuntTheir call
    9.2%−0.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:00ORE 4th & 3 at UVA 3, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.3%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%−0.9
    93% to make
    Punt
    93.5%−3.8
    average punt
  7. Q3 13:51ORE 4th & 3 at ORE 28, up 24
    Close callPunted · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.6%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 6:10UVA 4th & 22 at UVA 31, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.6%−0.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
  9. Q4 12:07ORE 4th & 11 at ORE 36, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.5%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 2:48ORE 4th & 7 at UVA 38, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.2%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    98.1%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ORE made the numbers' call on 5 of 6UVA made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 6:56ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    89.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    89.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:28UVA Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    13.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:02ORE Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:50ORE Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:05ORE Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 10:22UVA Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 8:53ORE Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 5:25ORE Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:07UVA Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UVADrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:399% → 9%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q1 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.7%
Albert Reid run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q1 14:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
90.6%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:11
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
90.6%
Nicholas Conte punt for 48 yds , Charles Nelson returns for no gain to the Oregn 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 1:0191% → 90%
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
90.5%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Devon Allen for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+8
90.5%
Royce Freeman run for 8 yds to the Oregn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
90.4%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 39Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 5
OWN 39
0
90.5%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Charles NelsonSimilar
Q1 13:35
3RD & 5
OWN 39
0
90.4%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 5
OWN 39
+14
90.2%
Ian Wheeler punt for 38 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for 14 yds to the Virg 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 3DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 4:2110% → 11%
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
90.1%
Albert Reid run for 4 yds to the Virg 41Similar
Q1 12:40
2ND & 6
OWN 41
+9
90.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:30
1ST & 10
50
+2
90.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q1 12:25
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
90.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 1 yd to the Oregn 47Similar
Q1 12:15
3RD & 7
OPP 47
+9
89.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 9 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+15
89.9%
Kurt Benkert run for no gain to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Oregn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+1
89.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 1 yd to the Oregn 22Similar
Q1 11:55
2ND & 9
OPP 22
-10
89.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 32Similar
Q1 11:45
2ND & 19
OPP 32
+11
89.8%
Albert Reid run for 11 yds to the Oregn 21Similar
Q1 11:40
3RD & 8
OPP 21
0
89.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Doni DowlingSimilar
Q1 8:29
4TH & 8
OPP 21
+2
88.8%
Matt Johns pass complete to Dylan Sims for 2 yds to the Oregn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 4TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 1:1989% → 90%
Q1 8:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
88.8%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+22
88.9%
Royce Freeman run for 22 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
50
+21
89.0%
Darren Carrington II run for 6 yds to the OREGON 44 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Virg 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+6
89.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Charles Nelson for 6 yds to the Virg 23Similar
Q1 7:30
2ND & 4
OPP 23
+21
89.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 21 yds to the Virg 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
89.7%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 0
OPP 0
+2
89.8%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (2 Yards) to the Virg 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1711% → 14%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
89.2%
Albert Reid run for 19 yds to the Virg 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:35
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
89.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+10
89.0%
Jordan Ellis run for 10 yds to the Oregn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
88.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:30
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+8
88.9%
Albert Reid run for 8 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
Q1 5:12
3RD & 2
OPP 38
+11
88.8%
Albert Reid run for 11 yds to the Oregn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-4
88.5%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 31Similar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 14
OPP 31
+24
88.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 24 yds to the Oregn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
86.5%
Albert Reid run for 7 yds for a TD, (Dylan Sims PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 6TD
8 plays · 56 yds · 2:1088% → 90%
Q1 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
87.8%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q1 3:02
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+5
87.6%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 49Similar
Q1 2:42
3RD & 5
OWN 49
-5
87.5%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Oregn 44Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+22
87.2%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 22 yds to the Virg 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+24
87.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Royce Freeman for 24 yds to the Virg 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
87.7%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Virg 7Similar
Q1 1:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
89.5%
Tony Brooks-James run for 7 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 7PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 2:2211% → 12%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
88.7%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 5 yds to the Virg 30Similar
Q1 0:20
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+16
88.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 16 yds to the Virg 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
88.1%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 3 yds to the Virg 49Similar
Q2 14:50
2ND & 7
OWN 49
+18
87.9%
Albert Reid run for 18 yds to the Oregn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
87.4%
Albert Reid run for 3 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 30
-10
87.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 40Similar
Q2 13:37
2ND & 17
OPP 40
0
88.0%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:31
3RD & 17
OPP 40
0
88.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:18
4TH & 17
OPP 40
0
88.5%
Nicholas Conte punt for 39 yds, downed at the Oregn 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 8TD
12 plays · 99 yds · 4:0088% → 92%
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+9
88.3%
Dakota Prukop run for 9 yds to the Oregn 24 for a 1ST down Dwayne Stanford for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+17
88.4%
Royce Freeman run for 17 yds to the Oregn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
88.8%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Oregn 45Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+20
88.8%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the Virg 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
89.0%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q2 10:50
2ND & 10
OPP 35
-6
88.9%
Tony Brooks-James run for a loss of 6 yards to the Virg 41Similar
Q2 10:47
3RD & 16
OPP 41
-5
88.1%
OREGON Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the Virg 46Similar
Q2 10:46
3RD & 21
OPP 46
-15
88.1%
OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 36
OWN 39
+55
87.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Devon Allen for 55 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
88.9%
Taj Griffin run for 3 yds to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
88.8%
Royce Freeman run for 1 yd to the Virg 2Similar
Q2 8:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
92.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:089% → 9%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+6
90.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q2 8:05
2ND & 4
OPP 48
+10
90.4%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Taquan Mizzell for 10 yds to the Oregn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-1
90.5%
Albert Reid run for a loss of 1 yard to the Oregn 39Similar
Q2 7:03
2ND & 11
OPP 39
+1
90.7%
Albert Reid run for 1 yd to the Oregn 38Similar
Q2 6:28
3RD & 10
OPP 38
0
90.9%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Andre LevroneSimilar
Q2 6:20
4TH & 10
OPP 38
0
91.1%
Nicholas Conte punt for 38 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 10TD
12 plays · 80 yds · 2:5591% → 97%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-4
91.4%
Dakota Prukop run for a loss of 4 yards to the Oregn 16Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+9
91.3%
Royce Freeman run for 9 yds to the Oregn 25Similar
Q2 5:23
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+5
91.2%
Dakota Prukop run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Jalen BrownSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
91.4%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+23
91.2%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 8 yds to the Virg 38 for a 1ST down VIRGINIA Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+10
91.9%
Royce Freeman run for 10 yds to the Virg 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:13
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
91.9%
Royce Freeman run for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+6
92.0%
Dakota Prukop run for 6 yds to the Virg 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:38
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+7
92.1%
Kani Benoit run for 7 yds to the Virg 18Similar
Q2 3:13
2ND & 3
OPP 18
+7
92.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 7 yds to the Virg 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:05
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
96.8%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 11 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 11INT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:284% → 4%
Q2 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
95.9%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Jalen Jelks for a loss of 9 yards to the Virg 16Similar
Q2 2:21
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+5
96.0%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Virg 21Similar
Q2 2:12
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
96.0%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Brenden Schooler return for no gain to the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 12END OF HALF
12 plays · 59 yds · 2:0397% → 97%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
96.9%
Royce Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Oregn 35Similar
Q2 1:36
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+32
97.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 32 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:28
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
97.2%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Virg 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
97.3%
Royce Freeman run for 3 yds to the Virg 15Similar
Q2 1:16
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+5
97.5%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for 5 yds to the Virg 10Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+4
97.4%
Royce Freeman run for 4 yds to the Virg 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
97.5%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Devon AllenSimilar
Q2 0:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
97.4%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Royce Freeman for 5 yds to the Virg 1Similar
Q2 0:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
97.2%
Dakota Prukop run for a loss of 2 yards to the Virg 3Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
97.0%
Aidan Schneider 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:4997% → 97%
Q3 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
96.8%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 26Similar
Q3 14:27
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+2
96.9%
Royce Freeman run for 2 yds to the Oregn 28Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 3
OWN 28
0
96.9%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:51
4TH & 3
OWN 28
+36
96.7%
Ian Wheeler punt for 36 yds , Daniel Hamm returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 14TD
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:184% → 8%
Q3 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
95.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 8 yds to the Virg 43Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+15
95.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 15 yds to the Oregn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+1
96.5%
Jordan Ellis run for 1 yd to the Oregn 41Similar
Q3 12:18
2ND & 9
OPP 41
+5
96.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Hasise Dubois for 5 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q3 11:57
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+15
96.6%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (15 Yards) to the Oregn 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
96.3%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 11:38
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
96.4%
Taquan Mizzell run for 8 yds to the Oregn 13Similar
Q3 11:00
3RD & 2
OPP 13
+2
97.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Oregn 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:33
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+7
96.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Olamide Zaccheaus for 7 yds to the Oregn 4Similar
Q3 10:22
2ND & 3
OPP 4
+4
92.3%
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Sims KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 15TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2195% → 97%
Q3 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
94.6%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 9:41
1ST & 20
OWN 15
0
94.7%
Dakota Prukop pass incomplete to Darren Carrington IISimilar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 20
OWN 15
+8
94.9%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 8 yds to the Oregn 23Similar
Q3 8:53
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+77
97.4%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Devon Allen for 77 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 16PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 2:273% → 2%
Q3 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
97.5%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Virg 28Similar
Q3 7:45
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-11
97.4%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Troy Dye for a loss of 11 yards to the Virg 17Similar
Q3 7:16
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+26
97.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 26 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:06
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
97.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Hasise DuboisSimilar
Q3 7:00
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
97.5%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 6:32
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-12
97.7%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Drayton Carlberg for a loss of 12 yards to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 22
OWN 31
+3
97.8%
Nicholas Conte punt for 52 yds , Charles Nelson returns for 3 yds to the Oregn 34 OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (10 Yards) to the Oregn 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 17TD
2 plays · 90 yds · 0:2398% → 100%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
98.0%
Royce Freeman run for 5 yds to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 5:25
2ND & 5
OWN 15
+85
99.7%
Royce Freeman run for 85 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 18DOWNS
19 plays · 53 yds · 5:051% → 1%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
99.5%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds to the Virg 31Similar
Q3 4:44
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+12
99.5%
Albert Reid run for 12 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+9
99.6%
Taquan Mizzell run for 9 yds to the Oregn 48Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 1
OPP 48
+3
99.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 3 yds to the Oregn 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
99.8%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Evan Butts for 8 yds to the Oregn 37Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+5
99.7%
Albert Reid run for 5 yds to the Oregn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:22
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
99.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Taquan MizzellSimilar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 2:11
3RD & 10
OPP 32
0
99.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q3 2:03
4TH & 10
OPP 32
+10
99.8%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Oregn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:42
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+12
99.8%
Jordan Ellis run for 12 yds to the Oregn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:29
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.8%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Olamide ZaccheausSimilar
Q3 1:23
2ND & 0
OPP 10
+5
99.8%
OREGON Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (5 Yards) to the Oregn 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:05
1ST & 0
OPP 5
-10
99.6%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 15Similar
Q3 0:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
-9
99.8%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Austin Maloata for a loss of 9 yards to the Oregn 24Similar
Q3 0:20
2ND & 0
OPP 24
+18
99.8%
Kurt Benkert run for 11 yds to the Oregn 13 for a 1ST down OREGON Penalty, Personal Foul (7 Yards) to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.6%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Warren Craft for 6 yds for a TD, (Dylan Sims KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 11 yds · 2:3297% → 97%
Q4 14:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
96.8%
Tony Brooks-James run for 1 yd to the Oregn 26Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+3
97.0%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Tony Brooks-James for 3 yds Tony Brooks-James fumbled, recovered by Oregn Tony Brooks-JamesSimilar
Q4 13:30
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+4
97.3%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Devon Allen for 4 yds to the Oregn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-10
97.3%
OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Oregn 27Similar
Q4 13:15
1ST & 20
OWN 27
+6
97.2%
Devon Allen run for 6 yds to the Oregn 33Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & 14
OWN 33
0
97.2%
Dakota Prukop pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 14
OWN 33
+3
97.2%
Dakota Prukop run for 3 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 12:07
4TH & 11
OWN 36
0
97.1%
Ian Wheeler punt for 42 yds, downed at the Virg 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 21TD
13 plays · 78 yds · 4:163% → 4%
Q4 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+2
96.7%
Taquan Mizzell run for 2 yds to the Virg 24Similar
Q4 11:29
2ND & 8
OWN 24
+9
96.9%
Jordan Ellis run for 9 yds to the Virg 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
96.7%
Kurt Benkert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+6
96.7%
Jordan Ellis run for 6 yds to the Virg 39Similar
Q4 10:30
3RD & 4
OWN 39
+4
96.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 4 yds to the Virg 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:20
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+17
96.9%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Warren Craft for 17 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-6
96.8%
Kurt Benkert sacked by Jonah Moi for a loss of 6 yards to the Oregn 46Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 16
OPP 46
+10
97.0%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Doni Dowling for 10 yds to the Oregn 36Similar
Q4 8:12
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+17
96.9%
Albert Reid run for 17 yds to the Oregn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:04
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
96.2%
Kurt Benkert pass incomplete to Keeon JohnsonSimilar
Q4 7:53
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+13
96.4%
Kurt Benkert run for 13 yds to the Oregn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
96.3%
Kurt Benkert pass complete to Keeon Johnson for 6 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 22DOWNS
11 plays · 42 yds · 4:2698% → 99%
Q4 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
97.8%
Kani Benoit run for 5 yds to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
97.9%
Kani Benoit run for no gain to the Oregn 30Similar
Q4 5:35
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
98.3%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Darren Carrington II for no gain to the Oregn 40Similar
Q4 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+5
98.3%
VIRGINIA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Oregn 45Similar
Q4 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
98.2%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Kani Benoit for 10 yds to the Oregn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:54
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+14
98.4%
Kani Benoit run for 14 yds to the Virg 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
98.6%
Kani Benoit run for a loss of 1 yard to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 3:59
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+2
98.6%
Kani Benoit run for 2 yds to the Virg 40Similar
Q4 3:26
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+2
98.7%
Dakota Prukop run for 2 yds to the Virg 38Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 7
OPP 38
+5
98.6%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 5 yds to the Virg 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UVADrive 23INT
2 plays · 14 yds · 0:132% → 2%
Q4 2:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+14
98.0%
Taquan Mizzell run for 14 yds to the Virg 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+16
98.0%
Kurt Benkert pass intercepted Khalil Oliver return for 16 yds to the Oregn 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OREDrive 24END OF GAME
7 plays · 24 yds · 2:0899% → 99%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
98.7%
Kani Benoit run for 1 yd to the Oregn 39Similar
Q4 2:08
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+5
98.7%
Taj Griffin run for 5 yds to the Oregn 44Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 4
OWN 44
+17
99.1%
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 17 yds to the Virg 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-3
99.1%
Taj Griffin run for a loss of 3 yards to the Virg 42Similar
Q4 1:00
2ND & 13
OPP 42
+1
99.1%
Tony Brooks-James run for 11 yds to the Virg 31 OREGON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Virg 41Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 12
OPP 41
+3
99.2%
Tony Brooks-James run for 3 yds to the Virg 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:05
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Pharaoh Brown for 11 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+4.7
TD · Q3 10:22
Taquan Mizzell run for 4 yds for a TD, (Dylan Sims KICK)
-4.5
TD · Q2 8:50
Dakota Prukop pass complete to Dwayne Stanford for 2 yds for a TD, (Aidan Schneider KICK)
+3.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com