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USU

Utah State 7 at USC 45

USC
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
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Win probability · USC
modelUSC aheadUSU aheadconfidence bandkey playUSC scoreUSU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:23 · Aaron Dalton punt blocked by Michael Pittman Jr. blocked by Michael Pittman Jr. Michael Pittman Jr. return for 35 yds to the UthSt 6 Quinton Powell return for 9 yds to the UthSt 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 12Pregame prior+32.2Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1Blowout margin+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 8:00: Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +4.8 pts (now 88%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:00: UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (Wesley Bailey) to the 50 yard line — USU win probability +0.5 pts (now 13%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:19: Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK) — USC win probability +6.3 pts (now 96%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  4. FG · Q3 6:38: Matt Boermeester 20 yd FG GOOD — USC win probability +0.7 pts (now 97%) (top driver: USC has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:00: Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 6 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK) — USU win probability +1.6 pts (now 2%) (top driver: USU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USC made the numbers' call on 4 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 13:23USU 4th & 3 at midfield, tied
    Close callPunted · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.8%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:35USU 4th & 3 at USC 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    17.8%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    17.7%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:43USU 4th & 5 at USC 20, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.0%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%
    75% to make
    Punt
    17.2%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:43USC 4th & 2 at USU 29, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    82.2%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    81.5%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:31USC 4th & 16 at USU 28, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 81.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−0.6
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    81.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    79.5%−1.7
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00USU 4th & 7 at USU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.1%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.5%
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:00USU 4th & 9 at USU 43, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.5%−0.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:18USC 4th & 1 at USU 39, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−1.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    86.7%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00USU 4th & 8 at USC 40, down 21
    Close callPunted · 5.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    5.5%−0.4
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    5.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:38USC 4th & 2 at USU 2, up 21
    Close callKicked a field goal · 96.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.3%−0.4
    94% to make
    Punt
    94.8%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:49USU 4th & 17 at USU 30, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.8%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 13:36USC 4th & 11 at USC 34, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.5%−0.3
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.8%
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:27USU 4th & 2 at USU 33, down 24
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.4%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.4%
    average punt
  14. Q4 9:40USU 4th & 8 at USC 32, down 31
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    51% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:44USU 4th & 3 at USU 32, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.0%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USC made the numbers' call on 5 of 5USU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 11:50USC Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:00USC Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:19USC Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:00USU Touchdown, down 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:45USC Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:44USC Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USCDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · -10 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
83.0%
Justin Davis run for 11 yds to the USC 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
83.0%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 1 yard to the USC 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+3
83.0%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 38
-8
83.0%
Max Browne sacked by Jalen Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the USC 30Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 16
OWN 30
-15
83.0%
USC Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Chuma Edoga) to the USC 15Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 31
OWN 15
0
83.0%
Chris Tilbey punt for 42 yds, downed at the UthSt 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 13:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-5
82.4%
UTAH ST Penalty, false start (Jude Hockel) to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 13:23
1ST & 15
OWN 38
0
82.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Chad ArtistSimilar
Q1 13:23
2ND & 15
OWN 38
+9
82.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 9 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q1 13:23
3RD & 6
OWN 47
+3
82.4%
Kent Myers run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 13:23
4TH & 3
50
+9
82.5%
Aaron Dalton punt blocked by Michael Pittman Jr. blocked by Michael Pittman Jr. Michael Pittman Jr. return for 35 yds to the UthSt 6 Quinton Powell return for 9 yds to the UthSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 3TD
3 plays · 50 yds · 0:3683% → 83%
Q1 12:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
82.5%
Max Browne pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-SchusterSimilar
Q1 12:26
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
82.5%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the UthSt 3Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
82.9%
Max Browne pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 4MISSED FG
15 plays · 55 yds · 5:0717% → 18%
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
82.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
82.7%
Devante Mays run for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q1 11:50
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
82.7%
USC Penalty, (5 Yards) to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
82.7%
Kent Myers run for 1 yd to the UthSt 38Similar
Q1 11:50
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+24
82.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 24 yds to the USC 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
82.5%
Ethan Cortazzo run for 3 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+1
82.1%
Devante Mays run for 1 yd to the USC 34Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 6
OPP 34
+3
82.3%
Devante Mays run for 3 yds to the USC 31Similar
Q1 9:35
4TH & 3
OPP 31
+6
82.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 6 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
82.1%
Devante Mays run for 2 yds to the USC 23Similar
Q1 9:35
2ND & 8
OPP 23
+3
82.1%
Kent Myers run for 3 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q1 9:35
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
82.3%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt Houston, broken up by Rasheem GreenSimilar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
82.3%
Brock Warren 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 5MISSED FG
15 plays · 52 yds · 6:1283% → 82%
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
82.7%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 9 yds to the USC 29Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+2
82.9%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+9
82.8%
Max Browne pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 9 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 1
OWN 40
+7
83.1%
Dominic Davis run for 7 yds to the USC 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
83.1%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Darreus Rogers, broken up by Daniel GraySimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+9
83.0%
Justin Davis run for 9 yds to the UthSt 44Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 1
OPP 44
+7
83.0%
Justin Davis run for 7 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
83.2%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Darreus RogersSimilar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+6
83.1%
Justin Davis run for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 4
OPP 31
+2
83.1%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 2 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q1 6:43
4TH & 2
OPP 29
+7
82.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 7 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:43
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-6
83.2%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 6:43
2ND & 16
OPP 28
+2
83.1%
Justin Davis run for 2 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q1 6:43
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-2
82.8%
Max Browne sacked by Derek Larsen for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 28Similar
Q1 0:31
4TH & 16
OPP 28
+46
81.9%
Matt Boermeester 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:3118% → 18%
Q1 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+1
82.0%
Devante Mays run for 1 yd to the UthSt 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 29
-4
82.0%
Justen Hervey run for a loss of 4 yards to the UthSt 25Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 25
+6
82.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Braelon Roberts for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 31
0
82.5%
Aaron Dalton punt for 56 yds, downed at the USC 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 7TD
14 plays · 87 yds · 5:3682% → 87%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+7
82.2%
Max Browne pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 yds to the USC 20Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 3
OWN 20
+5
82.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 5 yds to the USC 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
82.3%
Ronald Jones II run for a loss of 4 yards to the USC 21Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+11
82.1%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the USC 32Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
82.1%
Ronald Jones II run for 5 yds to the USC 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
82.6%
Ronald Jones II run for 2 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+9
82.9%
Max Browne pass complete to De'Quan Hampton for 9 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
83.0%
Ronald Jones II run for 3 yds to the UthSt 49Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+21
83.0%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 21 yds to the UthSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
83.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 2 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
83.3%
Max Browne pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 3 yds to the UthSt 23Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+10
82.9%
[NHSG], Browne, Max pass incomplete to Smith-Schuster, JuJu, PENALTY USU holding (DAVIS, Jalen) 10 yards to the USU13, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
87.7%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 0
OWN 35
+15
87.2%
UTAH ST Penalty, personal foul (Wesley Bailey) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 1:0013% → 13%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
86.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Kennedy Williams for 9 yds to the UthSt 34Similar
Q2 8:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+8
85.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Devante Mays for 8 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
86.2%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds to the UthSt 47Similar
Q2 7:00
2ND & 5
OWN 47
-2
85.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 45Similar
Q2 7:00
3RD & 7
OWN 45
-2
86.3%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the UthSt 43Similar
Q2 7:00
4TH & 9
OWN 43
0
86.9%
Aaron Dalton punt for 46 yds, downed at the USC 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 9INT
7 plays · 47 yds · 0:0087% → 88%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
86.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the USC 14Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+17
86.7%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 17 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
86.8%
Deontay Burnett run for 12 yds to the USC 43 USC Penalty, Offensive holding (Darreus Rogers) to the USC 33Similar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 8
OWN 33
+2
86.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 35Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+13
86.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 13 yds to the USC 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
87.4%
Justin Davis run for 10 yds to the UthSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
87.5%
Max Browne pass intercepted Jontrell Rocquemore return for no gain to the UthSt 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 10INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
87.4%
Kent Myers pass intercepted Leon McQuay III return for no gain to the UthSt 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 11TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 2:0888% → 96%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
88.4%
Justin Davis run for no gain to the UthSt 48Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+2
88.3%
Max Browne run for 2 yds to the UthSt 46Similar
Q2 2:27
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+7
87.9%
Max Browne pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 7 yds to the UthSt 39Similar
Q2 1:18
4TH & 1
OPP 39
+1
88.9%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the UthSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
89.7%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q2 1:18
2ND & 10
OPP 38
0
89.6%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Tyler Petite, broken up by Dallin LeavittSimilar
Q2 1:18
3RD & 10
OPP 38
+27
89.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Justin Davis for 27 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+9
89.9%
N/A pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 9 yds to the UthSt 2Similar
Q2 0:19
2ND & 1
OPP 2
+2
96.3%
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 12END OF HALF
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
94.3%
Devante Mays run for no gain to the UthSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 13PUNT
10 plays · 35 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
94.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 6 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+13
94.2%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 13 yds to the UthSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
94.2%
Damion Hobbs pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
94.2%
Rayshad Lewis run for no gain to the UthSt 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+14
94.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 14 yds to the USC 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
94.0%
LaJuan Hunt run for 2 yds to the USC 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 40
0
94.0%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Rayshad LewisSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 40
0
94.1%
Kent Myers pass incomplete, broken up by Rasheem GreenSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 40
0
94.3%
Aaron Dalton punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 14FG
15 plays · 78 yds · 5:2096% → 97%
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+11
96.1%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 11 yds to the USC 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
96.2%
Justin Davis run for 1 yd to the USC 32Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+12
96.2%
Max Browne pass complete to Darreus Rogers for 12 yds to the USC 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
96.4%
Justin Davis run for 10 yds to the UthSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
96.4%
Max Browne pass incomplete to Jalen GreeneSimilar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+9
96.4%
Max Browne pass complete to Justin Davis for 9 yds to the UthSt 37Similar
Q3 11:58
3RD & 1
OPP 37
+3
96.3%
Justin Davis run for 3 yds to the UthSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+14
96.9%
Ajene Harris run for 14 yds to the UthSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+8
96.9%
Max Browne pass complete to Tyler Petite for 8 yds to the UthSt 12Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & 2
OPP 12
+4
96.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 4 yds to the UthSt 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
96.9%
Sam Darnold run for 4 yds to the UthSt 4Similar
Q3 8:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
96.8%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for no gain to the UthSt 4Similar
Q3 8:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
96.6%
Max Browne pass complete to Aca'Cedric Ware for 2 yds to the UthSt 2Similar
Q3 6:38
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+20
97.3%
Matt Boermeester 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 15PUNT RETURN TD
8 plays · 5 yds · 2:493% → 0%
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
96.7%
Devante Mays run for 5 yds to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
96.5%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt HoustonSimilar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+7
96.6%
Kent Myers pass complete to Landon Horne for 7 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
96.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Alex Byers for 6 yds to the UthSt 43Similar
Q3 6:38
2ND & 4
OWN 43
-1
96.5%
Kent Myers run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 42Similar
Q3 6:38
3RD & 5
OWN 42
-12
96.6%
Kent Myers sacked by Porter Gustin for a loss of 12 yards to the UthSt 30Similar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 17
OWN 30
+77
99.6%
Aaron Dalton punt for 47 yds , Adoree' Jackson returns for 77 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 16TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 3:490% → 2%
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Kent Myers pass incomplete, broken up by Uchenna NwosuSimilar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.6%
Tonny Lindsey run for 4 yds to the UthSt 29Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+8
99.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 8 yds to the UthSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
99.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 1 yd to the UthSt 38Similar
Q3 3:49
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+2
99.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to LaJuan Hunt for 2 yds to the UthSt 40Similar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+15
99.5%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 15 yds to the USC 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
99.4%
Kent Myers pass complete to Ron'Quavion Tarver for 7 yds to the USC 38Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+6
99.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Rayshad Lewis for 6 yds to the USC 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
99.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 7 yds to the USC 25Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+16
99.7%
[NHSG], MYERS, Kent pass incomplete to TOGIAI, Ian, PENALTY USC pass interference (Marshall, Iman) 16 yards to the USC9, 1ST DOWN USU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
99.8%
Justen Hervey run for 3 yds to the USC 6Similar
Q3 1:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
99.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Wyatt Houston, broken up by Chris HawkinsSimilar
Q3 0:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
98.1%
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 6 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 17PUNT
7 plays · -1 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
99.2%
USC Penalty, false start (Zach Banner) to the USC 30Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 30
-3
99.2%
Justin Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the USC 27Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 27
+7
99.2%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Daniel Imatorbhebhe for 7 yds to the USC 34Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 34
0
99.1%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to Steven Mitchell Jr.Similar
Q4 13:36
4TH & 11
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Chris Tilbey punt for 41 yds , Andrew Rodriguez returns for no gain to the UthSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 18DOWNS
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 13:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
98.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 3 yds to the UthSt 28Similar
Q4 13:27
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
98.7%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the UthSt 31Similar
Q4 13:27
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+2
98.7%
Kent Myers pass complete to Andrew Rodriguez for 2 yds to the UthSt 33Similar
Q4 13:27
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
98.7%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Landon Horne, broken up by Michael HutchingsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 19TD
6 plays · 33 yds · 1:50100% → 100%
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+8
99.5%
Justin Davis run for 8 yds to the UthSt 26Similar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 2
OPP 26
+12
99.5%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 12 yds to the UthSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
99.5%
Sam Darnold pass incomplete to JuJu Smith-Schuster, broken up by Justus Te'iSimilar
Q4 11:35
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-1
99.5%
Sam Darnold run for a loss of 1 yard to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 11
OPP 15
+15
99.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to JuJu Smith-Schuster for 15 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 20DOWNS
10 plays · 51 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
99.9%
Tonny Lindsey run for 3 yds to the UthSt 15Similar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Andrew Rodriguez, broken up by Uchenna NwosuSimilar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+8
99.9%
Kent Myers run for 8 yds to the UthSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+43
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Jaren Colston-Green for 43 yds to the USC 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
99.9%
Kent Myers pass incomplete to Chad Artist, broken up by Ajene HarrisSimilar
Q4 9:40
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+4
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 4 yds to the USC 30Similar
Q4 9:40
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+3
99.9%
Kent Myers pass complete to Tonny Lindsey for 3 yds to the USC 27Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 3
OPP 27
-5
99.9%
[NHSG], PENALTY USU false start (SIMONICH, Jake) 5 yards to the USC32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:40
4TH & 8
OPP 32
-5
99.9%
Kent Myers sacked by Josh Fatu for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 21TD
10 plays · 63 yds · 3:46100% → 100%
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds to the USC 39Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+20
99.9%
Jalen Greene run for 20 yds to the UthSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-6
99.9%
Jalen Greene run for a loss of 6 yards to the UthSt 47Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 16
OPP 47
+15
99.9%
Sam Darnold pass complete to Jalen Greene for 15 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 1
OPP 32
+10
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 10 yds to the UthSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 11 yds to the UthSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:30
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the UthSt 8Similar
Q4 6:30
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+3
99.9%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 3 yds to the UthSt 5Similar
Q4 6:30
3RD & 4
OPP 5
+3
99.9%
[NHSG], Darnold, Sam pass incomplete to Pittman Jr., Michael, PENALTY USU pass interference (BAILEY, Wesley) 3 yards to the USU2, 1ST DOWN USC, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
100.0%
Aca'Cedric Ware run for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
100.0%
N/A pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
100.0%
Justen Hervey run for 7 yds to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Justen Hervey run for no gain to the UthSt 32Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
100.0%
Aaron Dalton punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the USC 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USCDrive 23END OF GAME
2 plays · 1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
100.0%
Dominic Davis run for 6 yds to the USC 46Similar
Q4 1:20
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-5
100.0%
Dominic Davis run for a loss of 5 yards to the USC 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:19
Max Browne pass complete to Steven Mitchell Jr. for 2 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
+6.3
TD · Q2 8:00
Sam Darnold pass complete to Deontay Burnett for 13 yds for a TD, (Matt Boermeester KICK)
+4.8
TD · Q3 0:00
Kent Myers pass complete to Wyatt Houston for 6 yds for a TD, (Brock Warren KICK)
-1.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com