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TTU

Texas Tech 55 at Arizona State 68

ASU
2016 · Week 2 · Sep 10, 2016 · Mountain America Stadium
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Win probability · ASU
modelASU aheadTTU aheadconfidence bandkey playASU scoreTTU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 10:36 · Michael Barden punt for 28 yds, downed at the 50 yard line
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 73Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior+5.5Garbage-time factor+0.1Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:53: Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 13 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +13.3 pts (now 44%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:45: Justin Stockton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +13.4 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 8:32: Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +12.1 pts (now 67%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 0:43: Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK) — ASU win probability +14.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: ASU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:23: Demarcus Felton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK) — TTU win probability +10.5 pts (now 16%) (top driver: TTU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ASU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7TTU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 15:00ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.6%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:55TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:04ASU 4th & 5 at ASU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.6%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:26ASU 4th & 4 at TTU 45, up 2
    Close callPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    64.5%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.8%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:36TTU 4th & 13 at TTU 22, down 2
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.2%−1.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.7%
    average punt
  6. Q3 8:32TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 49, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  7. Q4 15:00TTU 4th & 7 at TTU 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−1.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:40ASU 4th & 3 at ASU 41, up 10
    Close callPunted · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.1%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q4 8:16TTU 4th & 1 at TTU 34, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.3%−0.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 4:01ASU 4th & 1 at TTU 30, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    92.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    91.7%−0.9
    56% to make
    Punt
    91.1%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 3:04ASU 4th & 7 at TTU 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 93.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.0%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    93.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    91.0%−2.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:39ASU 4th & 1 at TTU 27, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    97.6%−0.2
    62% to make
    Punt
    96.3%−1.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ASU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TTU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
  1. Q1 7:12TTU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    35.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 1:14TTU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:17ASU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 12:55TTU Touchdown, up 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 11:18ASU Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 8:30ASU Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 5:21TTU Touchdown, down 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    36.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    35.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q2 2:17ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q2 0:53TTU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 11:45TTU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q3 8:32ASU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  12. Q3 0:43ASU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 10:57ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    94.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 9:23TTU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.0%−0.8
    45% to convert
  15. Q4 9:11ASU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.6%−0.3
    45% to convert
  16. Q4 8:16TTU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.6%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ASUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
58.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 12 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
58.2%
Manny Wilkins run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 42
0
58.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
58.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim White, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
58.2%
Matt Haack punt for 54 yds , Cameron Batson returns for no gain to the TexTc 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+6
58.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 6 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q1 13:55
2ND & 4
OWN 10
-6
58.3%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by DJ Calhoun for a loss of 6 yards to the TexTc 4Similar
Q1 13:55
3RD & 10
OWN 4
+9
58.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 9 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q1 13:55
4TH & 1
OWN 13
+14
58.4%
Michael Barden punt for 44 yds , Tim White returns for 14 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 3TD
9 plays · 47 yds · 3:0041% → 43%
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
59.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 5 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-3
59.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 8
OPP 45
+27
59.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 27 yds to the ArzSt 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
59.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 17Similar
Q1 10:12
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+7
59.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 10Similar
Q1 10:12
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+9
59.5%
Justin Stockton run for 9 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
59.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q1 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
57.1%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 43 yds · 1:4459% → 59%
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
58.8%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the TexTc 42Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+16
58.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 16 yds to the TexTc 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+6
58.9%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q1 11:57
2ND & 4
OPP 20
+4
58.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 4 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
58.9%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 4
OPP 10
+10
59.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 10 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+14
58.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 14 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
58.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 7:04
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
58.8%
Manny Wilkins pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:04
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+2
58.3%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 7:04
4TH & 5
OWN 40
0
58.1%
Matt Haack punt for 59 yds, downed at the TexTc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 6SF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q1 5:33
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
59.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETY Team fumbled, recovered by TexTc Justin Stockton for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 20 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
59.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Tim WhiteSimilar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
59.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 5 yds to the ArzSt 40Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 5
OWN 40
+9
59.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 9 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
60.2%
ARIZONA ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q1 5:26
1ST & 15
OWN 44
-3
59.7%
Kalen Ballage run for a loss of 3 yards to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q1 5:26
2ND & 18
OWN 41
+14
59.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 14 yds to the TexTc 45Similar
Q1 5:26
3RD & 4
OPP 45
0
60.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q1 5:26
4TH & 4
OPP 45
0
59.6%
Manny Wilkins punt for 43 yds, downed at the TexTc 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 8TD
6 plays · 98 yds · 1:4640% → 45%
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
59.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 5 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+14
60.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 14 yds to the TexTc 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
59.7%
Justin Stockton run for 4 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q1 3:00
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+8
59.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Keke Coutee for 8 yds to the TexTc 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+8
59.4%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 8 yds to the TexTc 41Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 2
OWN 41
+59
54.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Derrick Willies for 59 yds for a TD TEXAS TECH Penalty, Offensive offside ( Yards) declined, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 9TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:5755% → 62%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
55.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 10 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
55.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 38Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+15
56.3%
[NHSG], Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Polite-Bray, DJ) 15 yards to the TTU47, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
56.8%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the TexTc 43Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+15
56.8%
[SG], Wilkins, Manny pass complete to Harvey, Jalen for 6 yards to the TTU37, fumble forced by Polite-Bray, DJ, fumble by Harvey, Jalen recovered by TTU Polite-Bray, DJ at TTU37, Polite-Bray, DJ for 43 yards to the ASU20, out-of-bounds (White, Tim), PENALTY TTU personal foul (Fehoko, Breiden) 15 yards to the TTU28, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
57.5%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+8
57.5%
Demario Richard run for 8 yds to the TexTc 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+9
57.5%
Richard,Demario rush for 2 yards to the TTU14 (Moore, Gary), PENALTY TTU personal foul (Moore, Gary) 9 yards to the TTU7, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
57.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 6 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
Q2 13:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
61.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 10TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:2240% → 45%
Q2 13:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:55
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+75
54.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 75 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 85 yds · 1:2454% → 62%
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+6
54.3%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 21Similar
Q2 12:42
2ND & 4
OWN 21
+31
54.6%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kody Kohl for 31 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
56.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 9 yds to the TexTc 39Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 1
OPP 39
+39
61.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kalen Ballage for 39 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · -3 yds · 0:4240% → 39%
Q2 11:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
59.8%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q2 11:18
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
59.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 11:18
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-5
60.5%
TEXAS TECH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the TexTc 22Similar
Q2 10:36
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
60.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:36
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
61.1%
Michael Barden punt for 28 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 13TD
6 plays · 50 yds · 1:5362% → 69%
Q2 10:23
1ST & 10
50
+37
61.7%
Kalen Ballage run for 37 yds to the TexTc 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
62.4%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the TexTc 11Similar
Q2 9:51
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+7
62.4%
Demario Richard run for 7 yds to the TexTc 4Similar
Q2 9:51
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+3
61.7%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexTc 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
68.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 14TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:0933% → 43%
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
67.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 12 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
66.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 17 yds to the ArzSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
65.3%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 45Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 45
0
65.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+22
66.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Ian Sadler for 22 yds to the ArzSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+5
64.2%
[NHSG], Stockton, J. rush for 2 yards to the ASU21 (Boateng, Edmond), PENALTY ASU offside (Boateng, Edmond) 5 yards to the ASU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 5
OPP 18
+5
64.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Demarcus Felton for 5 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
64.2%
Jr. Quinton White run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q2 8:30
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+6
64.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 6 yds to the ArzSt 6Similar
Q2 8:30
3RD & 3
OPP 6
-5
65.0%
[NHSG], PENALTY TTU false start (Morales, Tony) 5 yards to the ASU11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:21
3RD & 8
OPP 11
+11
57.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Dylan Cantrell for 11 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 15TD
11 plays · 74 yds · 2:5562% → 74%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
62.0%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 25Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+6
61.5%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 6 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+7
61.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 7 yds to the ArzSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
63.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+13
63.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 13 yds to the TexTc 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+8
64.5%
Manny Wilkins run for 8 yds to the TexTc 40Similar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 2
OPP 40
0
64.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Cameron SmithSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+36
63.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Kody Kohl for 36 yds to the TexTc 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.6%
Kalen Ballage run for 4 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 16TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 1:2428% → 44%
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.1%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
70.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jr. Quinton WhiteSimilar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+5
71.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 5 yds to the TexTc 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
71.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 16 yds to the ArzSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
69.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 6 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+12
69.3%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 12 yds to the ArzSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
68.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q2 2:17
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+16
68.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Reginald Davis III for 16 yds to the ArzSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+13
55.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 13 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 0:46
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
62.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the ArzSt 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 18TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:1538% → 56%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
61.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 7 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
60.0%
[NHSG], Mahomes, P. pass incomplete to Cantrell, Dylan, PENALTY ASU offside (Wicker, JoJo) 5 yards to the TTU37, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+19
60.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jr. Quinton White for 19 yds to the ArzSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
58.5%
Justin Stockton run for 2 yds to the ArzSt 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+23
58.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 8 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST down ARIZONA ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the ArzSt 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
57.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 4 yds to the ArzSt 15Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+3
57.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 3 yds to the ArzSt 12Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+11
58.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 11 yds to the ArzSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
57.2%
Patrick Mahomes II run for no gain to the ArzSt 1Similar
Q3 11:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.8%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 19TD
10 plays · 84 yds · 3:0849% → 67%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+19
49.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 19 yds to the ArzSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+29
49.8%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 29 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
53.4%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 1 yard to the TexTc 37Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+15
53.1%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harry, N'Keal, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Polite-Bray, DJ) 15 yards to the TTU22, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
55.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 2 yds to the TexTc 20Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+10
55.1%
Wilkins, Manny pass incomplete to Harvey, Jalen, PENALTY TTU pass interference (Nguema, Thierry) 10 yards to the TTU10, 1ST DOWN ASU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
55.1%
Manny Wilkins run for no gain to the TexTc 10Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+8
55.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Jalen Harvey for 8 yds to the TexTc 2Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
67.3%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 20PUNT
10 plays · 41 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
63.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Justin StocktonSimilar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 10
OWN 8
+5
63.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 5 yds to the TexTc 13Similar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 5
OWN 13
+3
64.4%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Devin Lauderdale for 3 yds to the TexTc 16Similar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 2
OWN 16
+15
65.3%
Barden, Michael punt 48 yards to the ASU36, White, Tim return to the ASU42 (Allen, Kisean), PENALTY ASU personal foul (Gammage, Fred) 15 yards to the TTU31, 1ST DOWN TTU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+15
61.9%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jr. Quinton White for 15 yds to the TexTc 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+3
59.3%
Jr. Quinton White run for 3 yds to the TexTc 49Similar
Q3 8:32
2ND & 7
OWN 49
0
59.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Devin LauderdaleSimilar
Q3 8:32
3RD & 7
OWN 49
0
59.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q3 8:32
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
62.5%
Michael Barden punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 21TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:0065% → 84%
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
64.7%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to N'Keal Harry for 4 yds to the ArzSt 24Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
64.9%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds to the ArzSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
65.2%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for 1 yd to the ArzSt 32Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+17
64.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Cameron Smith for 17 yds to the ArzSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
67.9%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Tim White for a loss of 1 yard to the ArzSt 48Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 11
OWN 48
+12
66.6%
Manny Wilkins run for 12 yds to the TexTc 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
68.5%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Kalen BallageSimilar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+9
68.2%
Demario Richard run for 9 yds to the TexTc 31Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
68.0%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the TexTc 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
69.4%
Manny Wilkins run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 8
OPP 27
+3
69.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexTc 24Similar
Q3 5:43
3RD & 5
OPP 24
+10
68.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 10 yds to the TexTc 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:43
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
69.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the TexTc 10Similar
Q3 5:43
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+3
69.4%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexTc 7Similar
Q3 0:43
3RD & 3
OPP 7
+7
84.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:4318% → 15%
Q3 0:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Cameron BatsonSimilar
Q3 0:43
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
81.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 3 yds to the TexTc 28Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
84.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Derrick WilliesSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
85.1%
Michael Barden punt for 49 yds , Tim White returns for no gain to the ArzSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 23PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+6
84.1%
Demario Richard run for 6 yds to the ArzSt 29Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 4
OWN 29
0
84.2%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Jalen HarveySimilar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 4
OWN 29
+5
83.4%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 5 yds to the ArzSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
84.3%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 34Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+7
84.1%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Demario Richard for 7 yds to the ArzSt 41Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 3
OWN 41
0
84.4%
Manny Wilkins pass incomplete to Frederick Gammage, broken up by Justis NelsonSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 3
OWN 41
0
83.4%
Matt Haack punt for 52 yds, downed at the TexTc 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 24INT
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 12:22
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+1
85.2%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 8Similar
Q4 12:22
2ND & 9
OWN 8
-3
85.4%
Patrick Mahomes II sacked by Koron Crump for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 5Similar
Q4 12:22
3RD & 12
OWN 5
+19
86.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted Gump Hayes return for 19 yds to the TexTc 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 25TD
1 play · 1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.2%
Kalen Ballage run for 1 yd for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:345% → 16%
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
95.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 11 yds to the TexTc 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+11
95.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 11 yds to the TexTc 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+9
95.2%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Justin Stockton for 9 yds to the ArzSt 44Similar
Q4 10:57
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+12
94.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 12 yds to the ArzSt 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+27
94.6%
Patrick Mahomes II run for 27 yds to the ArzSt 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
84.0%
Demarcus Felton run for 5 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 27TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
96.0%
Kalen Ballage run for 75 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 28TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:554% → 11%
Q4 9:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
96.0%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 8 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 9:11
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
95.8%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Jonathan Giles, broken up by JoJo WickerSimilar
Q4 9:11
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+1
95.8%
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd to the TexTc 34Similar
Q4 8:16
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+66
88.6%
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Cameron Batson for 66 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 29FG
16 plays · 53 yds · 5:0689% → 98%
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
89.2%
Demario Richard run for 17 yds to the ArzSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
90.1%
Demario Richard run for no gain to the ArzSt 39Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+22
90.0%
Manny Wilkins pass complete to Frederick Gammage for 22 yds to the TexTc 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
90.5%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexTc 36Similar
Q4 8:10
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
90.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the TexTc 32Similar
Q4 8:10
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+2
90.1%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 4:01
4TH & 1
OPP 30
+2
92.4%
Kalen Ballage run for 2 yds to the TexTc 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
93.2%
Demario Richard run for 1 yd to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 3:23
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-3
94.8%
Demario Richard run for a loss of 3 yards to the TexTc 30Similar
Q4 3:15
3RD & 12
OPP 30
+5
94.9%
Demario Richard run for 5 yds to the TexTc 25Similar
Q4 3:04
4TH & 7
OPP 25
+43
98.1%
Zane Gonzalez 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TTUDrive 30INT
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass incomplete to Dylan CantrellSimilar
Q4 3:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
97.5%
Patrick Mahomes II pass intercepted Gump Hayes return for no gain to the TexTc 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ASUDrive 31END OF GAME
5 plays · 12 yds · 2:1498% → 99%
Q4 2:53
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+3
98.3%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexTc 33Similar
Q4 2:53
2ND & 7
OPP 33
+4
98.4%
Demario Richard run for 4 yds to the TexTc 29Similar
Q4 2:53
3RD & 3
OPP 29
+2
98.3%
Demario Richard run for 2 yds to the TexTc 27Similar
Q4 0:39
4TH & 1
OPP 27
+3
99.1%
Demario Richard run for 3 yds to the TexTc 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 0:43
Kalen Ballage run for 7 yds for a TD, (Zane Gonzalez KICK)
+14.7
TD · Q3 11:45
Justin Stockton run for 1 yd for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q2 0:53
Patrick Mahomes II pass complete to Jonathan Giles for 13 yds for a TD, (Clayton Hatfield KICK)
-13.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com